The Familiar Fallout: Poll Drops, BCS Position, Next Week's Lines

by Kevin HD on Nov 8, 2009 11:02 PM EST in Penn State Football Comment 46 comments

Yeah, it wasn't pretty. But it's time to take stock and look forward.

Polls. Penn State will end the season with just two ranked teams on the schedule - Wisconsin is on a two year break - and for the second time Paterno & Co. played too safe for their own good.

The Iowa game could be rationalized as an anomaly, the weather and blocked punt weren't expected or advantageous, but getting dominated by an Ohio State defense means this coping mechanism from the Iowa game is now much more truth and much less fun:

Rc4z9l_medium_medium

(Okay, but still a lot of fun.)

Now with a little more reality to go on, the polls were pretty punishing. The Coaches' say 17th. That puts Penn State behind fellow two-lossers OSU, USC, LSU, Miami and Oregon. It's a similar story from the Harris.

Random bullets:

The humans seem to have overreacted to Iowa's Stanziless loss. If Oklahoma was allowed to stay ranked for no reason simply because they lost their quarterback, I don't understand why the Hawkeyes shouldn't get the same treatment. They are 12 and 13 with the humans, but still 9th in the computers.
Probably a similar over-reaction for Ohio State, but obviously in the opposite direction. They jump all the way up to 8 in the polls but stay outside the BCS top 10 because of a T-13 computer ranking.
Both these last two points are extremely temporary, though, because they'll shift mightily depending on the outcome of next week's game.
And if you want proof that timing and reputation are way more important than records: USC is 10 in the human polls with two losses, Oregon is 14 and 16 with the same record. Not only did Oregon beat USC like no one else in the last 5 years, but they also have essentially the same exact resume: one win over a top 15 team, one loss to a top 15 team, and one inexcusable defeat to a Pac-10 mediocre squad. Nice, right?

BCS. Fugimaster runs down the BCS rankings and has your poll positions for the final BCS at-larges:

I think we can pretty confidently move TCU and Alabama into the "safe" column, and LSU would be eliminated by the 2 teams per conference rule (Thanks IcersGuy) so that leaves USC, Miami, Boise, and us for the final 2 at-larges. Is it a long shot? Probably, but stranger things have happened. I'm not giving up hope until December 5.

So there you have it, with the big assumption that Penn State wins out, of course. I suspect the reaction to this for a lot of you is "OMG BCS? STFU!" but let's keep things in perspective. Winning out is in the cards and anything can happen in a bowl game.

Lines. Vegas sent out the opens tonight as usual. Penn State is favored by 22 next week against Indiana, a line 70% of the betters think is too high. This lends credibility to the Pateroism that you're never as bad as they say you are after a loss. Plus it's still Indiana, although they've played Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern and Michigan all extremely tough.

Some other lines of note:

Wisconsin is a 9.5 point favorite against Michigan
Illinois is finally favored in a game again, -4 against Northwestern
Ohio State is a 13.5 point favorite against Iowa

And by the way, that OSU-Iowa game is one of only two contests between ranked opponents this week. The other one is an underwhelming Utah vs. TCU. The higher ranked school is favored by 18 points in that one.

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Are they kidding?

Oregon’s beatdown of USC was last week. Talk about short memory.

by PSUisMyHeart on Nov 8, 2009 11:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pitt...

My Problem right now is Pitt being ranked higher than us and how all my friends who went to Pitt, decide they need to call me and say not only do they have a better basketball team, but now that have a better football team too…. ugh…

For the Glory of Old State

by PSULion29 on Nov 8, 2009 11:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well...

You could point out to them that we beat Slippery Rock in preseason action by triple what they did. So with 1% of precints reporting, we have the better basketball team.

But as far as the football teams goes, they’ve played no one, and their ranking reflects it. We’re 6 spots below them after two high profile home losses, and unless they win out, we’re going to finish the year ranked ahead of them.

What’s even funnier is that we’re probably still in a better position to make the BCS than they are. They have to win the Big East, and the chances of that are less than Miami, USC, and/or Boise losing to get us in.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by fugimaster24 on Nov 8, 2009 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pitt does not have a better team than us right now

I’m not saying we have the greatest schedule ever made, but have you looked at Pitt’s schedule to this point? THERE IS NO DOUBT IN MY MIND that we would be 9-0 if we played their schedule to date. They may be the only team in the nation that has not played a ranked team when the game was played. (Full disclosure: USF has bounced back and forth in the polls throughout the season and is back in the BCS top 25 this week but was not when they played Pitt.) And USF is the only decent team they’ve played all season.

After playing Notre Dame – that will make 10 consecutive unranked opponents, and when WVU loses to Cincy and falls out of the polls that will make 11.

And I’m pretty confident we wouldn’t have lost to NC State, so I don’t think I’m quite ready to call Pitt a better team right now. As many of the comments have indicated, the polls don’t necessarily have it 100% correct.

by mundyscorner99 on Nov 9, 2009 9:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"the polls don't necessarily have it 100% correct"

while this is an obviously true statement no matter what the intent of the polls are, I usually see the polls as a way of evaluating the teams with respect to their seasons, and not as any sort of power ranking.

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 9, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think they do have a better team right now

and they deserve the ranking. The polls all say the Big East is a better conference than the Big 11 this year. Are the polls 100% correct, no. But we were pretty proud when we got to #5 or whatever.

If we played them, we’d have the real answer, for a year. But we don’t play them and we won’t. So we have to live by the polls and die by the polls.

Give the poor Pantheroos their due. Wanny out recruited us for a couple of years 2-3 years ago and those guys are his leaders today. Theyll be good for another year and then back to normal (their last couple classes have been average). Their OOC schedule next year includes Utah, Miami and ND in OOC…now would we like that. Although they may have two FSC type teams
.
They’ve sucked a lot longer than we did in the dark years. It’s been a long time since they got to the top 10. Right now, today, they deserve it. They hold their destiny in their hands, like we did last Saturday. And we crapped the bed (don’t put up that pic). They have a great chance to get to the BCS this year . I think the Cinci game will be a monsterous game (assuming they get by the Domers and Mounties).

Just suck it up and stay rational. Unfortunately, we did little this year to give them a good argument. I hate it ,but I just tell them they’re having a good year.

Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
Vince Lombardi

by PaJoe on Nov 9, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I agree with most of this

And I rec’d it.

However, I don’t tell them they’re having a good year. I just ignore them.

Sam Lickliter. Never forgive. Never forget. Beat IU.

by ReadingRambler on Nov 9, 2009 9:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the rec.

I pretty much ignore them also. But, you just have to go with the best info we got and unfortunately, it’s not a head to head game, it’s subjective polling (either by humans or by the computer programs that humans build). Right now, they have one loss. Only, 6 teams have 0 losses. They deserve to be way up there.

Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
Vince Lombardi

by PaJoe on Nov 9, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Big East

I’m not knocking the Big East, but I don’t know how much the overall strength of the conference supports Pitt being better than PSU right now — Pitt so far has only beaten one of the decent teams in the Big East (USF, though admittedly, they clobbered them). They still have yet to play the 2 good tams (other than themselves) in the conference and their non-conference schedule has been as bad as ours and they lost to a mediocre at best team in NC State.

If Pitt ends up 11-1, they deserve all the credit in the world and would clearly be an excellent top 10 team. But right now, IMHO they seem to be just as likely, if not moreso, to end up 9-3 as 11-1.

by Laaaaazzz on Nov 9, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kevin, you know the rules by now

The humans seem to have overreacted to Iowa’s Stanziless loss. If Oklahoma was allowed to stay ranked for no reason simply because they lost their quarterback, I don’t understand why the Hawkeyes shouldn’t get the same treatment. They are 12 and 13 with the humans, but still 9th in the computers.

Because Iowa plays in a top heavy league that is full of mediocrity.

Oh wait…

Chortle.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 8, 2009 11:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

what is even more ridiculous

is that Oklahoma losing Bradford is a HUGE loss to the team, while Iowa losing Stanzi? Yeah, he’s an OK QB, but nothing that great, and certainly not a Heisman winner. But apparently Iowa’s defense really needs Stanzi out there…

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 9, 2009 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stanzi really is a huge loss to Iowa

Yeah, they threw up the high school stats on Vandenberg several times Saturday, but the kid had thrown three passes total for Iowa. He’s not ready to be the starting QB for what might be the Big Ten Championship game on Saturday.

"Is that right?" Joe answered. "That’s not a problem. But you’ve got a problem. You don’t relate to me. And that’s a big problem."

by dmoney350z on Nov 9, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and so you're saying that Oklahoma's Landry Jones

with his 0 passes total for Oklahoma prepared him more for the role of starting QB in their system?

I’m not saying Stanzi isn’t a huge loss for Iowa, but he wasn’t really their strength to begin with. Yes, they probably won’t be able to beat OSU, but they might not have been able to even with Stanzi.

Oklahoma losing Bradford, and replacing him with Landry Jones (the difference between Bradford and Jones is MUCH bigger than the difference between Stanzi and Vandenberg) was much more devastating to their team, and yet the voters were still ranking Oklahoma ridiculously high.

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 9, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You have to look at their starting points

With Bradford, OU is a team that has a high chance of winning (and winning big). Landry was/is a big step backwards, and therefore that brings OU from a high chance of winning to a small chance of winning.

With Stanzi, Iowa is a team that has a slim chance of winning (even when undefeated, Vegas was still picking against them). Vandenberg is a step backwards – a smaller step than Bradford-Landry, but still backwards – but now Iowa goes from slim chance of winning, to more likely to lose*. That’s the difference – Oklahoma had that cushion to lose a player like Bradford and still be competitive, Iowa didn’t**.

(*) Please note that this is all on projection, as half a game isn’t enough to determine Vandenberg’s actual value or the added/dropped synergy of his entrance as the starting QB.

(**) That’s not to say that Iowa will lose forever. Again, these are just prognostications at this point, and I’m still pulling for Iowa this weekend.

"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."

by IcersGuy on Nov 9, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oklahoma lost 3 games with Landry

and they were 20th in the AP, 19 in the Harris, and 20 in the Coaches. Iowa, one week later, has 1 loss, and loses Stanzi, and they’re 15 in the AP, 12 in the harris, 13 in the Coaches

It took Oklahoma with Landry getting 4 losses out of 9 games before they dropped out of the polls completely. Granted, Oklahoma’s losses were to good teams, but Landry apparently was a big enough dropoff in talent to cause the Sooners to lose, yet they still were getting ranked well.

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 9, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, trust me

I’m by no means defending the ranking of Oklahoma. It was something I was screaming about for weeks. The issue was likely timing – Oklahoma lost to a top-25 team in BYU, then 2 huge Landry-led blowouts over cupcakes, then a loss to another top-25 team (DA U or SWAG, whatever they call themselves now), and then mediocre wins surrounding a half-Bradford/half-Landry loss to Texas. The quality losses helped OU, and the fact that Landry had time to show some competence in games helped keep them afloat.

But I also wonder if the fact that Bradford would be back at some point during the season wasn’t another point that helped keep OU ranked. If Bradford had been lost for the season in week 1, would the pundits have been so willing to keep OU in the top 25? Just speculation…

I guess my biggest question is, how do you evaluate a team late in the season that has just lost a major factor of their success? Usually, we base everything on resume – what they’ve done. But if they aren’t the same team now as they were during the rest of the season, can the resume be ranked the same? Or should we make adjustments with the changes within the starting lineup? That’s something I’m just not sure about.

"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."

by IcersGuy on Nov 9, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't get me started on Oklahoma and the voters

Oklahoma was 3-3 (3-3!!!!!!) and still in the top 25 in the AP and Harris.

by Screen Name 20 on Nov 9, 2009 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You know what else is bad?

At 5-4, Oklahoma still received 6 votes this week in the Coaches’ Poll. I’d love to see the coaches who think Oklahoma still deserves to be in the top 25.

"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."

by IcersGuy on Nov 9, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This guy gives them a thumbs up...er...

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 9, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey!

Penn State will end the season with just two ranked teams on the schedule – Wisconsin is on a two year break – and for the second time Paterno & Co. played too safe for their own good.

There’s still the outside chance that Temple ends up ranked by the end of the season – pre-bowl game too! With the amount of attrition that seems to be happening weekly for the lower half of the top 25, Temple could move up and move in to the top 25 if they win out and beat CMU in the MAC Championship game. (Again, if CMU wins out, there’s the outside chance they’re in the top 25 for that MAC Championship game.)

In the words of those McDonald’s commercials from my youth – Hey! It could happen!

"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."

by IcersGuy on Nov 8, 2009 11:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Indeed.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Nov 9, 2009 8:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not only did Oregon beat USC like no one else in the last 5 years, but they also have essentially the same exact resume: one win over a top 15 team, one loss to a top 15 team, and one inexcusable defeat to a Pac-10 mediocre squad. Nice, right?

It’s worse. Stanford is, frighteningly, only a half game back in the Pac-10 (though one back in the loss column). Washington is … shall we say, substantially worse than Stanford.

Anyone voting USC ahead of Oregon ought to have their voting privileges revoked. It’s no less unjustifiable than the Oregon-over-Boise tide last week was (admittedly, that seemed to come more from the pundits than the voters themselves).

by SpartanDan on Nov 9, 2009 12:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Eh

I don’t feel like pulling the schedules again, but BSU’s opponents are terrible, like below average even for mid-majors terrible. At the time you could argue Oregon’s wins 2-7 were better than BSU’s, and maybe that makes up for the loss. Not saying I agree, but also not saying it’s batsh*t either.

The problem with ranking USC > Oregon is that they are living in the same world…there is no “oh but!” for USC…same teams, they’ve played either other, ect.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Nov 9, 2009 8:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know what is with depressed fanbases

No non-BCS team, ACC team (except Virginia Tech or just maybe Clemson), or Big East team (except West Virginia) will ever get a discretionary BCS bid ahead of any Big Ten team (except Indiana or Northwestern). They just won’t sell tickets.

by drothgery on Nov 9, 2009 12:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

FSU for ACC teams as well

though we don’t have to worry about that this year :-p

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 9, 2009 9:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At this point, a BCS bowl is superflous

I just want to see a good match up and hope PSU is ready to put up a fight.

by Mr. Rosewater on Nov 9, 2009 1:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Right on

this team just isn’t ready for primetime. Give me something winnable instead.

by jimbo2psu on Nov 9, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not every team in the BCS is Texas.

Also likely to be there: Cinci/Pitt, Georgia Tech/Miami, BSU, who the hell knows from the Pac-10….the CapOne against LSU might actually be more difficult than half the matchups in the BCS. Or not, I don’t know. At this point we know almost nothing about the Big East or BSU and can’t figure out the Pac-10 or ACC.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Nov 9, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

what he said

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 9, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Boise will not be there

TCU will, but a second non-BCS team will not be there unless the bowls have no choice.

by drothgery on Nov 9, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BCS

If we make the BCS, I think it will likely be in the Orange versus the ACC champion. The Sugar will take a SEC team to replace the team they lose to the BCS championship. And assuming Texas is the other team in the championship, the Fiesta IMHO is likely to take USC to replace them as things now stand. The Orange then picks next and I think they would gladly take PSU over any other options (the Big East champ, TCU/Boise St, etc.). Unless Notre Dame wins out and becomes eligible at 9-3 and, even then, I think we’d still get chosen over them (assuming we are 10-2).

by Laaaaazzz on Nov 9, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A new years bowl is...

all we are playing for now. We had our chance to be in the BCS picture and did not do what we needed to do. Pollsters shmolsters. We looked bad in both loses. We lost to Iowa and OSU by the same formula. Pressure the heck out of our QB and slow down our run. That will keep our D on the field and they will wear down eventually. I think we are about where we should be. If we win our final two games we will end up about 15 or 13 in the polls. 2 loses. Bottom of the better teams in the Big Ten. That is about where we thought we would be when the season started.

Peter

by psuboy on Nov 9, 2009 8:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Indiana is going to have its way with scarecrow and turnstile

And for additional safety against good field position Brandon Ware will be fair catching punts.

Indiana 937
PSU 2

Yes, I am a little despondent.

No. 2—You are so lucky he barely fumbled the ball PSU fans.

by psu on Nov 9, 2009 9:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

but what if the hurricane is also named Indiana?

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 9, 2009 9:16 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

+1,000 for the superfans reference!

"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."

by IcersGuy on Nov 9, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You just wait

once scarecrow has a year of experience under his belt and a year in the S&C program, he’ll be a monster.
But damn you bananas! You came in so highly ranked and have been nothing but a bust!

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Nov 9, 2009 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll excuse because you're an Iowa fan

Our S&C program is a joke! We all hate it! We lose knees! It’s terrible!

It’s not bananas fault! Our coaches don’t know what they’re doing. They turned him into rotten nothingness. We need to recruit from the speed states!

Sam Lickliter. Never forgive. Never forget. Beat IU.

by ReadingRambler on Nov 9, 2009 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow, you nailed that.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Nov 9, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Heh

Very nice. We have apparently decided to add losing ankles in addition to losing knees this year. Fun times, eh.

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Nov 9, 2009 10:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

am I wrong?

Or did LSU move UP after their loss?

by PSUmob on Nov 9, 2009 10:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

No

They fell two spots. Which may still be too high. OMG SEC.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 9, 2009 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually they did....

Move up in the BCS. Week 10 ranking was 9. Week 11 ranking was 8. Ridiculous!

I thought only safeties played 15 yards off the ball?

by pic15 on Nov 9, 2009 12:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh, thanks

And that is a tad ridiculous.

Sam Lickliter. Never forgive. Never forget. Beat IU.

by ReadingRambler on Nov 9, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nothing happens in a vacuum

Oregon and Iowa fell past them by taking worse losses (I think Iowa should be ahead still, but that’s because I care very little about how a game is won and mostly that it is), and the teams that had a chance to catch them either lost (you), won unconvincingly and are still ranked higher than they should be (USC), have even worse wins than LSU’s to this point (Utah, Pitt), or have godawful losses (OSU, Houston).

I think this is less a case of everyone’s opinion of LSU improving and more a case of “no one else did anything good either”.

by SpartanDan on Nov 9, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs