What It Would Take
It might be a shade too soon to declare JoePa the winner of the all-time win's race, but assuming this really is the end of the line for Bobby Bowden, what would it take for someone coaching now to catch JoePa if he were to walk away today with 393 wins?
-Urban Meyer is 45 years old with a 95-17 career record. A 10 win clip over the next 35 years brings Meyer to 445 wins by age 80.
-Pete Carroll is 58 years old, and has a 96-17 career record. A 10 win pace over 22 years brings Carroll to 316 wins by age 80.
-Frank Beamer is 63 years old. His career record is 176-89-2. 10 wins over 17 years until age 80 gets Beamer to 346.
-Greg Schiano is 43 years old. His career record is 54-54. 10 wins per season for the next 37 years gets him to 424 by age 80.
-Jim Tressel is 56 years old. His career record is 93-21. 10 wins per season for the next 24 years gets Tressel to 333 wins by age 80.
-Kirk Ferentz is 54 years old. If he wins 10 games per season over the next 26 seasons, he'll increase his win total from 80 to 340 by his 80th birthday.
Why does he always get in the way?
-Pat Fitzgerald is 34 years old. His career record is 27-22. With 10 wins per season for the next 46 years, he'll have won 487. If he wins 8 games until age 80, he'll have won 395.
-Rich Rodriguez is 46 years old. His career record is 113-78-2. 10 wins per season for the next 34 years until age 80 gets RichRod to 453. 8 wins per year gets him to 385.
Mack Brown is 58 years old. 10 wins per season until age 80 increases his total from 127 to 347.
-Mike Gundy is 42 years old. His career record is 36-25. 10 wins per season over the next 38 seasons gets Gundy to 416. 8 wins per season gets him to 340.
-Bob Stoops is 49. He's won 109 games to date. 10 wins per season in the next 31 brings him to 419. 8 wins gets him to 357.
-Lane Kiffin is 34. 10 wins per season until his 80th birthday 46 years from now plus his current 7 winsget him to 467. 8 wins get him to 375.
-Mark Richt is 49. He's won 88 games. If he wins 10 games per season for the next 31 years, his career total will be 398.
-Steve Spurrier is 64. If he wins 10 games per season until he's 80, he'll add 160 wins to his current 177, bringing him to 337.

-Nick Saban is 58. He has won 122 games to date. 10 wins per season until he's 80 in 22 years brings his total to 342.
So theres a smattering for you. If anyone else feels like looking someone up, feel free to put them in the comments.
Anyhow, some of the younger guys definitely have a chance, but it'll be tough.
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38 comments
Comments
You really want that #100 don't you?
The only one on that list that worries me is Meyer.
A few other coaches, all of which I’m more worried about than anyone on that list, save possibly Meyer:
Brian Kelly: 168-57-2 In a Bowden-esque move, he’ll be able to count his DII (yeah yeah I know there was no DI/DII back then) wins as long as he coaches for 3 more years in the FBS. He’s 48, putting him at 468 at 80 averaging 10 a year.
Chris Peterson: 47-4. He’s 45, so 397 at 80 with 10 a year, but at Boise State, if he stays, he’s got a serious chance of averaging 11 or 12 a year. He’s already averaging 11.75, which will go up a bit with a bowl win this year.
Bronco Mendenhall: 48-15. Age 43, 418 averaging 10 a year, currently averaging 9.6 brought down by a 6-6 record in his first year, averaging 10.5 over the last four years, which also could go up by winning their bowl.
Bobby Bowden: 388-141-4. He’ll try something. Just wait. I’ll never assume the end of Bowden.
Jim Tressel in an interview last year said he had no plans whatsoever on coaching that long.
Also, nice addition with the images.
by PSUisMyHeart on Dec 1, 2009 12:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oh and also
I don’t think Joe’s record will last forever, but I hope it lasts for at least my entire life and maybe a few extra thousand years would be nice.
by PSUisMyHeart on Dec 1, 2009 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Was this that bad?
I didn’t just want to give a list, so I thought I’d spice it up with the pictures, but seriously, I think it’s really interesting to know what coaches, possibly considered better than Joe at the present, need to do to match him.
10 a year is an absurd pace. Paterno himself only averages 9 (8.93 to be precise). Sustaining that over 40+ years would be unbelieveable in this age of college football. Too many coaches come and go these days, and most don’t get started till their mid 40s, when they’re already giving up at least 5 years and 50 wins to Paterno.
I look at Paterno’s wins record much like I look at today’s Lincecums and Santanas chances to win 300 games. They match up just as favorably with the aces of other eras, but they lose too many decisions to the increased role of middle relievers. An ace pitcher can throw 6 awesome innings, but far more often than in the past, bullpens can spoil those efforts by blowing it in the other 3. History will show that the decline in complete games matches the decline in 300 game winner.
For someone to catch Paterno, something systematic will have to change in college football. Athletic Departments will have to have more patience with coaches, and allow them to coach long term at the same place as Paterno and Bowden have been fortunate enough to do. But until something like that happens, I think Joe will be safe. I don’t think anyone on this list will catch him.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by fugimaster24 on Dec 1, 2009 1:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I mean
I don’t even know if anyone could survive the down years Paterno did at a program capable of winning 8-10 per season. At some point, you’re going to hit a valley no matter who you are, and I’m just not certain anything less that legend status would save a coach who went through the same “Dark Years” Paterno did.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by fugimaster24 on Dec 1, 2009 1:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a good thing to look at.
But I definitely agree, I don’t think it’s going to happen with any of these current coaches. Like you said, it’s incredible hard to keep that pace, or have years as bad as our Dark Years and not get fired, especially in the SEC. Small problem though, is that Brian Kelly really only needs 7.56 a year to reach 410 (which I think is a conservative estimate of what Joe Pa will get up to in the next two years). 7.56 isn’t that hard to sustain but I doubt he’ll coach that long. I guess I’m a little worried but this guy, but I still don’t think it’s happening.
Also think 10 a year isn’t a stretch at Boise State, at least for a while, since they easily dominate the WAC.
And a systematic change that could throw a terrible wrench in this whole thing?: A playoff lol. With an 8 team playoff, a team in a conference with a championship game has the potential to win 16 a year.
by PSUisMyHeart on Dec 1, 2009 1:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing about Brian Kelly
is that I don’t see him staying at Cincinnati, where 7-8 wins a year is acceptable. He’ll eventually move to a “better” school, where he’ll be expected to be winning 10 games a year, and when he doesn’t (since few, if any, can keep up that pace) he’ll get canned.
by The JuggerNitt on Dec 1, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fugi...what's with the baseball reference
I didn’t think they played baseball in Pittsburgh…
by The JuggerNitt on Dec 1, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not pro ball.
But if you want to take your family to a nice relaxing day at the park, the Washington Wild Things are top notch.
by PSUJunny05 on Dec 1, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What is the rule for counting Div 1-AA wins?
I thought you only had to be a coach for something like 10 years in FBS. In that case, Tressel’s count is higher at 228 (he’ll be 57 in a few days). He’ll need 10 wins over the next 18 or 19 years to beat Joe’s record, which will put him at about 75. Doable, for sure, but I doubt he (or really any) coach will be either to sustain the success for that long, or even want to coach for that long.
One thing that will help newer coaches is that Joe didn’t get the 12 game regular season until recently.
by The JuggerNitt on Dec 1, 2009 1:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think this record isn't the most unbreakble
But I think it is highly unlikely that it will be broken. Too many obstacles mentioned above. In the current football climate, no one can suffer the years Joe did unless maybe they are at the very beginning of a turn-around job.
We sometimes forget how lucky Joe and Bobby have been health wise. They have never been seriously ill at their age. I mean even if there is a chance that a coach would want to coach to their 80’s(which most do not want to do), it is very likely that health would not allow them to do it. Elderly folks can just get sick so much easier, even if they are in great health. I mean Joe wasn’t exactly a spring chicken when he got the HC job, he was what, 40? SO maybe if they get a HC gig a age 25 or something.
It could maybe be possible if the schedule gets expanded again and their is a playoff added, where teams could win around 16 games a year. I think that it is 100% that no one will ever coach the same amount of years or wins at the same school like Joe has.
Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.
"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."
by Roland86 on Dec 1, 2009 2:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, some of them can catch JoePa
but how many of them will actually grow a university?
by Mr. Rosewater on Dec 1, 2009 3:27 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
ding ding.
I think the only kind of comparisons presently would be the guy at Southern Florida or Boise St. Fitzgerald could certainly build the program at jNW, but not the University.
Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.
"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."
by Roland86 on Dec 1, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think some of the younger guys
might eventually want the NFL dollars/power. Interesting exercise to think about, though.
by Tailgate Shogun on Dec 1, 2009 7:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pat Fitzgerald
I doubt he’ll get the title, but he’s the only one I could see coaching at his same school for the next 40 years.
by Cairo on Dec 1, 2009 7:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
some of these coaches though are capable
of not teaching at the same school for 40 years and hitting that record. I can see Urban going elsewhere, taking a 6, 7 win season in transition, then choo chooin his way to an average of 10 wins a year.
im new around these parts...
by nator76 on Dec 1, 2009 8:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
I believe Fitzgerald will stay there until Northwestern is in the Rose Bowl again. Period.
"I don't know. I don't know. [waves hand dismissively] First, you'd have to tell me what a 'BCS' is. I don't know."
by ReadingRambler on Dec 1, 2009 9:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And that is fine with me, I like that guy as both a person and a coach and I want to see him succeed.
by Bob Sacamano on Dec 1, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like Fitzgerald too, he is a guy I think that could do very well here at PSU
Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.
"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."
by Roland86 on Dec 1, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, I don't mind him staying and bringing jNW to the Rose Bowl again
as long as it is as the Big 10’s second team, and the first team (Penn State) is winning the MNC game ;-)
by The JuggerNitt on Dec 1, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not to worry...
JoePa is unique as we all know and the others aren’t going to coach for that long, whether it’s a move to the Pros, age or death’s a callin’…17 years from now, when some of us will be “doa”, Joe will express sympathies and stating how the Blue-White Game will be a real test for DC’s twin sons…JoePa Forever !!!
by DerryPharmer on Dec 1, 2009 8:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Totally unrelated, but...
Is it me or is it a totally d!ck move to be texting somebody when a coach from a Div 1A school is talking to you? I’m not trying to defend RichRod in any way, but what the hell is Pryor doing? Just a total lack of respect. That pretty much sums up why I hate Pryor.
by Spats on Dec 1, 2009 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
He's probably texting Tressel...
telling him what a douchea RickRod is and that AA is too industrial wasteland.
One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's
by rahpsu92 on Dec 1, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post
Some (most?) of these pictures are begging for a photoshop.
"God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy"
by NJ lion on Dec 1, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
EPIC post
Cheerleaders, Ric Flair (WOOOOOO), Jim Ross, a championship trophy named after a now bankrupt, out of business company, Kirk Ferentz’s emotionless face, D’Antonio’s angry scowl, this post has it all. +1 to you, sir.
"Is that right?" Joe answered. "That’s not a problem. But you’ve got a problem. You don’t relate to me. And that’s a big problem."
by dmoney350z on Dec 1, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I am totally......
ashamed that I didn’t notice that was the NAY-cha Boy with Spurrier.
"When is the last time you heard a CEO say, "You know, I am REALLY glad we lowered our standards. Its really worked out well for us"."
Colin Cowherd
Eric Watters Atlanta, Ga.
by ech2os on Dec 1, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Looks like Pete Carroll is the clear winner to me....
but I don’t know how to read, so just going by the pictures.
by jimbo2psu on Dec 1, 2009 3:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Fearless prediction
I guarantee that anybody coming close to Joe Paterno’s record does it in a warm climate. Florida, USC, Florida State, etc. With the game as competitive across the country as it is today, and with distance from home being less of a consideration for many top recruits, I can’t believe a coach could break this record with such a climatic disadvantage in recruiting.
by jimbo2psu on Dec 1, 2009 4:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Climate?
If climate is all that matters, why is Joe the one still coaching?
By your theory, shouldn’t Bowden have been able to hold on longer because he can sell kids on FSU with girls in bikinis?
Just because the southern schools have A recruiting advantage on northern schools because of climate, that doesn’t mean they have THE advantage in recruiting at large.
Furthermore, you can recruit all the talent in the world, but if your a dumbass, you’re not going to survive at a school for 40+ years.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by fugimaster24 on Dec 1, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not only that, but even if there WAS a difference in talent between the north and south
if you play in the north, you’ll likely play against other northern teams more often than not.
by The JuggerNitt on Dec 1, 2009 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
slow, plodding, 3 yards and a cloud of dust northern teams
Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.
"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."
by Roland86 on Dec 2, 2009 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just tryin to find ways to contribute

"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
by jtothep on Dec 2, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve seen this exact same photo with the word “Huskers” instead.
"I don't know. I don't know. [waves hand dismissively] First, you'd have to tell me what a 'BCS' is. I don't know."
by ReadingRambler on Dec 2, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by fugimaster24 on Dec 1, 2009 8:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
reply fail
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by fugimaster24 on Dec 1, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Mike Gundy is 42 years old"
He is also a man
by Bob Sacamano on Dec 3, 2009 10:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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