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Bowl Game Travel: When do you buy the plane tickets?

We're looking at 80% Cap One, 10% Fiesta, and 5% each for Orange and Outback right? 

What's your strategy for buying plane tickets during these times of uncertainty?  Today, you can book a non-refundable round trip flight from BWI to Orlando for the Cap One bowl for under $190 a person but it's likely that by the time we know for sure it's going to be another $100.  Refundable tickets are expensive, so getting those now is mostly a wash...

So when does everyone normally buy the tickets?  There's about 5 unlikely scenarios including Pitt winning or Oregon St winning that will pretty much tip the scales immediately, but otherwise its a longer process...

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