luck be a lady lion--bowl edition

Kevin HD offered up the lines in his post the other day; here's my guess on who covers.  I took the lines from an online sportsbook at 5:10 ET on Tuesday.  

I've bet on bowl games for each of the past five years. I've gone from awful to mediocre during that time span, thanks largely to the realization that coaching is probably the most important aspect of bowl games (see: Joe Paterno).  I'll pick all bowl games in which big11 teams participate along with the MNC. 

Champs Sports Bowl: Wisconsin +3.5 v. Miami.  In real life, I took Miami on the money line (-175), because I think Miami's the better team and I think they'll win, but I'm worried about that hook. Seems like it could be a 3 point game. Also, a good first look at my coaching postulate above as we've got Bielema (bad) v. Randy Shannon (solid)...Miami -3.5

Insight Bowl: Iowa State +2.5 v. Minnesota. I know little to nothing about either team, but I don't think much of Tim Brewster. This team played below its talent level all year.  Iowa State +2.5.

Outback Bowl: Northwestern +7.5 v. Auburn. I think Pat Fitzgerald's a great coach, and I don't think jNW's gotten enough respect from Vegas all year.  I'm thinking about taking jNW  +260 on the money line, so you know that I like 'em -7.5.

Capital One Bowl: Louisiana State +2.5 v. Penn State. I think Les Miles is a good coach, though he's not quite as good as the man on the opposite sideline.  I really don't like this matchup for the good guys: we lost to the two best defenses we faced all year, and LSU is solid without the ball.  I think this one comes down to special teams...and I'm betting (and hoping) we've fixed our problems during the break.  PSU -2.5.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State +4 v. Oregon. I think the fighting sweater vests win outright. The PAC 10 was mediocre this year. Ohio State +4.

Alamo Bowl: Michigan State +7.5 v. Texas Tech.  Always bet on death; always bet against distraction. Distraction abounds in Lubbock. I think Sparty could win this one outright, but I definitely like them to cover. MSU +7.5.

Orange Bowl: Iowa +3.5 v. Georgia Tech. Two very well-coached teams. I think Ferentz's fundamentally strong defense figures out Paul Johnson's fundamentally strong offense. I think this is going to be one of the better BCS bowl games as it will be both well-played and competitive. Iowa +3.5

BCS National Championship: Texas +4 v. Alabama. Mack Brown's a much better guy than Saban, but probably not as good a coach. Close early, but it gets ugly late. Alabama -4.