Breaking Down the Tourney Field

by DevonEdwards on Mar 13, 2009 11:51 PM EDT

Okay, here's my attempt for a comprehensive thread. Screw Lunardi, here is my breakdown of the NCAA Tournament Field.

First, here are the automatic bids earned so far, conference in parentheses:
Total: 14
Cornell (Ivy)
East Tennessee State (Atl. Sun)
Morehead State (Ohio Valley)
Radford (Big South)
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)
Chattanooga (Southern)
Virginia Commonwealth (Colonial)
Gonzaga (West Coast)
Siena (Metro Atlantic)
North Dakota State (Summit)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Robert Morris (Northeast Conference)
Portland State (Big Sky)
American (Patriot)

Here are the other conferences that will be one-bid conferences, no matter who wins:
Total: 7 (Cumulative: 21)
Mid-American Conference
Sun Belt
Southland
Big West
SWAC
MEAC
America East

Here are the at-large teams with their bids, more or less, secure and not at jeopardy-some of these teams are those alive in not-yet-finished tournaments:
Total: 33 (Cumulative: 54)
Utah State
Butler
UConn
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Marquette
West Virginia
Syracuse
Villanova
Duke
North Carolina
Wake Forest
Clemson
Florida State
\Boston College
Ohio State
Michigan State
Purdue
Illinois
Missouri
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Kansas
Arizona State
UCLA
Washington
LSU
Tennessee
Utah
BYU
Memphis
Xavier

So there are 11 at large spots left, this is the real "Bubble." These are the teams who are probably in, but nothing is set in stone:
Total: 7 (Cumulative: 61)
Cal
Wisconsin
Michigan
Texas A&M
Michigan
Dayton
Temple

Now here are the teams battling for the final 4 spots:
Minnesota
Penn State
Maryland
San Diego State
__________________ (cut off point)
Florida (Unless they win the SEC)
Duquesne (unless they win the Atlantic 10)
Baylor (unless they win the Big XII)
South Carolina
Arizona
Davidson
Saint Mary's
Creighton

The way I see it, we're in, along with Maryland, Minnesota, and San Diego State. The only way I think we're out is if two of three of Florida, Duq, and Baylor win their tournaments. Florida is the only team that can be in even if they don't win their tournament, but it would take a win tomorrow no doubt.

The sky is far from falling.

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Comments

Thank You

I appreciate the thought out and logical response versus everyone during the open thread claiming the sky had fallen. People obviously have not been watching the rest of the bubble teams as the majority of them have also lost.

Unfortunately the selection committee and most analysts will not look at the fact that Purdue was playing their BEST game of the season and Penn State played pretty well but couldn’t keep up with a team on their best day. Obviously them playing well has to do with PSU’s defense but nonetheless the majority of NCAA teams would have a tough time hanging with Purdue the way were shooting, open looks or not.

My biggest fear is that there is a Big Ten backlash and the committee just wants to avoid giving 8 bids to a league that is not as highly regarded. The only way I see us left out is if, as you said, a few bids are given to teams not expected to win conference tournament titles. As of now there is no reason to believe we are not in the dance.

by GiveitToRoyster on Mar 14, 2009 12:29 AM EDT reply actions