The Song Remains The Same

by Kevin HD on Apr 1, 2009 3:57 PM EDT in Basketball Comment 27 comments

JoePa: Penn State's new free throw specialist. (AP Photo/Pat Little)

You may remember a look at how Penn State stacked up against Notre Dame through the eyes of the computer models. And so to ~~beat a dead horse~~ give you all an update for Thursday's (nit) National Championship matchup:

School	KenPom Rank	KenPom Score	Predicted W
Baylor	29	.8918	64% (71-67)
Penn State	58	.8208	36% (67-71)

So Baylor is actually ranked a bit higher than Notre Dame, and Penn State's win last night jumped them ten spots to help close the gap. While there is still a large space between the two teams' KenPom number, he actually gives the Nittany Lions an 2% greater chance of winning tomorrow than he did last night.

I still think there is a major SOS issue with KenPom. There has to be a floor for this kind of stuff, and I wouldn't care so much expect that it affects RPI in the same manor and has a negative impact on tournament selection (despite the lies the selection committee says on national TV).

School	Sagarin Rank	Sagarin PREDICTOR	Expected Spread
Baylor	26	85.07	-3.7
Penn State	40	81.37	+3.7

Penn State jumped seven spots in Sagarin, although they've always been looked at a little better in his formula than KenPom's. Same can be said for Baylor, though, and the projected point spread is just one tenth off the one we saw for Tuesday's game.

Digging any further is really just a repeat of last week but it is interesting that Baylor, with two less wins than Penn State and not from the OMG#1SBE*, gets the same edge as Notre Dame.

*Oh Muy Guud Number One Seed Big East

This time we are lucky enough to have a line out and yep: Baylor favored by 4. Not only does in mirror the stats above, but also the Vegas line from last night. This time, though, the public appears to be a lot more evenly divided.

Other things you should know:

Crispin and Cream gave up sleeping. Will someone buy that guy an alarm clock?
HHV finds DeChellis' name on a list of Memphis candidates.
Big Ten Geeks sounds impressed with the 2008-09 team but sees regression in Penn State's future.

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Comments

Cornley video

talking about preparations for the Baylor game.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/video/48603

by mundyscorner99 on Apr 1, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Over/under on CORNLEY SMASH

tomorrow is 12.

Black Shoe Diaries
I BLAME IOWA.

by Kevin HD on Apr 1, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not bad

And that’s a one-armed Cornley. Just think if he didn’t have the bum shoulder.

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

by BSD on Apr 1, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm hoping for...

that one last Cornley BAD-ASS moment to end his career. I’d like to see all the seniors have a moment or two. I want at least one more Morrissey transition three from about 25 ft, and for Pringle to break out the And-1 Mix tape tour moves and break some ankles on the way to the hole.

by mundyscorner99 on Apr 1, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

as long as we don't also get the Morrissey transition turnover from a really bad pass

by The JuggerNitt on Apr 2, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The HHV

article is a Rick Roll, but it doesn’t seem like an impossibility

by whiteoutonly on Apr 1, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Starting to wonder

Calipari is going to cause major ripple effects. Now Memphis is going to pluck someone, and then that school is going to have to pluck someone. You have to wonder who is going to be leaving messages on Ed’s phone Friday morning after the season is over. Somebody is going to dangle a carrot out there I’m sure.

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

by BSD on Apr 1, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's TWICE I got 'Rick Rolled' today...

thanks a lot… in my weakened and vomitous state, I now have that damn song running around upstairs.

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Apr 1, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I didn't even click through.

Thanks a lot HHV.

Black Shoe Diaries
I BLAME IOWA.

by Kevin HD on Apr 1, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno about next year

But I’m not completely sure that PSU will regress next season. The consistent improvement of Jones throughout the season is extremely positive. Babb will probably improve a good amount. I’m not counting on any of the freshman, but I think that PSU could be a bubble team again.

Kath?

by psuphiman80 on Apr 1, 2009 4:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think that Babb

can replace Pringle as a shooter, but I have seen enough of his ball handling skills yet to say whether he can totally replace Pringle there. Finding a replacement for Cornley will be the reason they will likely take a step back. Brooks needs to work on his shot and aggressiveness over the summer.

by mundyscorner99 on Apr 1, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pringle gives us quickness with the ball.

Oh, nevermind.

--
Black Shoe Diaries

"Never. We would never shoot nuclear weapons at Decepticons." -- Gen. Jack Jacobs

by Run Up The Score on Apr 1, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Babb learns to drive more.

He’ll add a great dimension to his game. Brooks will get to focus on playing in the 4 in the offseason.

Kath?

by psuphiman80 on Apr 1, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

But no one, no one can match the aggressiveness of CORNLEY SMASH.

"Breaststroke, free style," Rubin said of his technique, "Let’s see Phelps do that one."

by ReadingRambler on Apr 1, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I think we’ll see a regression for sure. They are not going to win 25 games next year. Earlier in the season I watched this team and became really concerned about next year. Cornley, Pringle, and Battle were carrying the team and the other guys weren’t doing anything for us. But now I’m feeling better.

Jones has shown he’s more than a fluke. He has been playing at a very consistently good level for over a month now. That should be a tremendous boost in his confidence as he goes into the offseason program, and I’m convinced he’ll be a major player for us next year.

I expect Babb to make tremendous strides this offseason. He will be in the backcourt with Battle all summer as they go through their drills. I think he’s a better shooter than Pringle. He lacks the penetration and ball handling skills of Pringle, but I think he’ll be a better defender from what I’ve seen. I think he’ll be equally as good as Pringle. Woodyard should also get better and get some good minutes next year.

Brooks and Jackson are the keys. Those guys are going to have to play more minutes, so we are going to need them to be more productive. Two or four points per night isn’t going to cut it. One of them has to find a way to score double digits and rebound.

I’m also encouraged that we have what looks like several serviceable freshmen coming in that can play right away along with Billy Oliver. I don’t expect any of them to be instant stars, but if some of them can give us just 10 quality minutes per night with five points and 2 or 3 rebounds it will mean a huge boost in our depth. Then players like Battle and Jones can be more effective if they have fresh legs.

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

by BSD on Apr 1, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Frazier

Him spelling Battle will pay dividends later in the season I think. Bigger guys always take longer to develop, so anything Oliver and Sasa give PSU will be gravy IMO. Marshall is the biggest mystery and who knows if he’ll RS or not. I really hopes Brooks improves a lot. Hopefully he’ll add some more muscle and weight. He looked good in the first two NIT games.

Kath?

by psuphiman80 on Apr 1, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

penetration and ball handling skills

are what got the Librarian in trouble in the first place

With that said, I think we will regress a bit next year (how do you not when losing 2/3 of your "team"), but I have high hopes for 2010 (especially if we can get Battle’s brother)

by The JuggerNitt on Apr 2, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tee hee hee

"Breaststroke, free style," Rubin said of his technique, "Let’s see Phelps do that one."

by ReadingRambler on Apr 2, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Paterno video from last night

His Black/Jewish comments are getting a lot of laughs around The Internets.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KH—sN8-em4

--
Black Shoe Diaries

"Never. We would never shoot nuclear weapons at Decepticons." -- Gen. Jack Jacobs

by Run Up The Score on Apr 1, 2009 4:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

only that dude could get away with such things...

Years ago I think he cracked Connor about being Irish with a funny quote and, most recently, Kevin Kelly with this:
"I really do like Kelly, even if he is Irish. I think he has done a really good job for us."

Dude is hilarious…

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Apr 1, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you get a free pass after your 80th birthday

My grandfather is 96 and pulls some doozies from time to time. I was walking into a charity dinner with him one time and he commented about how the black folks dressed. I felt 2" tall but they just looked at him, grinned and shook it off.

by psu85 on Apr 1, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Ed is going to leave

Now would be the best time for him to do so since he has gotten some national pub this year. The team will likely regress next year, although not like what happened after the Sweet 16 run. There will still be plenty of talent here. But the same people who will be saying he should stay were probably ready to get rid of him a few months ago. I don’t think he will leave, I hope he doesn’t leave, but if it can happen at the big time programs it can definitely happen at PSU.

by mundyscorner99 on Apr 1, 2009 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

DeChellis at Memphis?

Now THAT’S an April Fools joke.

Sorry, but the offensive coaching makes me want to pull out my hair. It seems like PSU wins in spite of the offensive coaching, not because of it.

by Cairo on Apr 1, 2009 7:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So ready for game 2 at the garden two trips to MSG in 3 days Nice

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwyOj8JkEA8

www.beersinthebleachers.com Check it out!

by AllDeonDoesIsCatchTDs on Apr 1, 2009 9:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

DeChellis is NOT going to Memphis. Trust me.

He has an overall losing record and this is his one successful year. I highly doubt he’s on Memphis’ list. If he is, Memphis needs to try a little harder.

Even if DeChellis brings PSU Basketball out of this Moon crater we’re in, he ain’t gonna go anywhere. He seems to have the loyalty of a Marine.

by Mr. Rosewater on Apr 1, 2009 9:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

PSU FB transfer

Do you think bitter Phil Taylor will be pulling for his adopted Baylor Bears tomorrow? I am sure he’ll be at the library and will probably miss the game.

by gradiology on Apr 1, 2009 9:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs