I’m ok with this so long as they apply the same logic to Ohio State. They are 7th in returning starts on O-line, have a worse (and very young) QB, no proven RB, and they lose their stars at WR, LB, and CB.

Something tells me they’ll use the “but they’re Ohio State” line and somehow they’ll be picked to be awesome. Whatever.

Here’s another point: this logic would mean we should have been awesome in 2007 with all our stars and a good O-line. Except we had QB14. So let’s not pretend O-lines automatically win you games without a competant QB in the backfield.

1. We ain’t Clemson. They always suck. Frankly, their tradition is that every year people think that they are going to be good, and then they figure out a way to suck. And that’s every year. When it comes to Clemson, believe it when you see it, and not one second before.

2. If you count the tight end position as on the offensive line, we return half our offensive line. If you don’t we return 40% of it. One of the returning starters is going to be first team all Big Ten. None of our projected starters are freshman or sophmores. Barring injury we’re fine on the offensive line.

3. LInebackers? Yeah, Lee and Bowman. They may be our best one two at linebacker ever.

4. D-Line? You can keep god, in Larry Johnson Sr I trust.

5. Secondary? Same as always. Lots of catchs, yards and complaining.

The only place we take a substantial step backward is at wide out. How that affects the line and DC17 is the question, and in my mind the only serious one.

I see them as a probably a 10-2 team, but could almost as easily see them 11-1 or 9-3, and not that far off from 12-0 or 8-4. There are a bunch of “what ifs” on the team, but for each specific player the basement isn’t that low. It is just that if every one of our (small) question marks only performs at their basement level, then that question mark will become very big.

There’s also the issue that people are just looking at returning starters without realizing that most of them had a lot of playing time last year, just didn’t happen to be on the field for the first series, and that a lot of these younger guys are potentially better athletes than the guys they are replacing. I almost find it laughable that people would question our defensive front 7. I understand the criticism of our WRs and secondary, but don’t see that being a big problem through pretty much our entire schedule. Our Offensive Line is probalby our second biggest weakness, but it looks like we’ll have enough real game experience before we face anyone of consequence.

I think most people will agree that the game against Iowa will likely predict how the rest of the season will go. If we struggle hard against them (and god forbid lose) then that could torpedo our confidence and season, but if we treat them like we treated every other team on our schedule from last year (other than OSU and USC) then we have 1 roadblock to a 12-0 regular season.

People keep doing this similar analysis of Penn State for next year, but it doesn’t seem that they’re doing the same analysis for other teams, who have all lost just as much, if not more than we have (except appaently have more “experienced” offensive lines…I’m sure Indiana’s 84 returning crappy starts are really going to pose a problem for us…)

I believe we have two or three good tight ends. Aren’t those players “work horses” by any measure?

(Seriously, I’d like to know.)

Also, Minnesota and Michigan are overrated in that scenario. (Also, the only Lions who might face Shonn Greene this year are in Detroit.) After Ohio State, Penn State’s toughest games will likely be Michigan State and Northwestern.

June 10 prediction: 10-2, +/- 1.