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Vegas Knows Best Doesn't See The Glass

 

Doodson_lege_medium

  The prediction machine. Seriously.

There is a fine line between these being predictive and these being reflective. On one hand, they may actually reflect some type of guess at the game score, because if they don't the 'sharp' betters will. The flip side, though, is that these lines are simply an attempt at balancing these guys on both sides of the bet. Either way, though, it's fun.

We talked about Heisman odds and the apparent inevitability that Pryor will be in New York shortly just last week, but let's take a look at the national and conference team odds.

BCS National Championship odds:

FLORIDA GATORS +155
OKLAHOMA SOONERS +460
SOUTHERN CAL TROJANS +700
TEXAS LONGHORNS +700
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +1000
VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES +1300
ALABAMA CRIMSONTIDE +1600
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES +1600
LSU TIGERS +1800
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH +1800
MIAMI FLORIDA HURRICANES +2200
NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS +2600
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS +2800
OREGON DUCKS +2800
CLEMSON TIGERS +3200
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS +3500
SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS +3600
CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS +4200
GEORGIA BULLDOGS +4200
GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS +4200
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS +4200
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS +4200
WISCONSIN BADGERS +4200


Ouch.  I can normally try to see the logic in these, but, um almost twice the odds of North Carolina?  More than twice the odds of Notre Dame and four times the long shot as Ohio State? The same as Wisconsin?

Star-divide

And here is something interesting.  While the BCS CG odds are essentially your chance of being elite, there's a kind of discrepancy when you look at who will be just pretty good.

Some of those teams above and their win total with odds:

Notre Dame Over 9 -105
North Carolina Over 8.5 -105
Oregon Over 8 +150
Wisconsin Over 8 -120
Mississippi Over 9 -110
Penn State Over 9 -200

 

None of those teams are predicted to by Vegas to slot more than 9 wins more than Penn State, but they are all significantly higher on the MNC chart.  BUT BUT SCHEDULE, yes, BUT BUT UNC's OOC slate includes the Citadel, Uconn, East Carolina and Georgia Southern. Notre Dame's soft schedule was the talk of June.  In other words, there are too many teams playing too many cupcakes to account for this large a discrepancy.

I suppose these things can coexist, but it's curious.  Take Oregon, for example.  Vegas says they are twice likely to win the MNC, but have (about) a 40% chance of hitting more than 8 wins.  Penn State comes it at a ~63% of getting at least one more than that.

Somewhat strange.  This would only really make sense to me if Penn State was facing some kind of glass ceiling, but as far as I know the team isn't playing as part of the Mountain West next season.

Thanks to You guessed it, Frank Stallone and Sports Investments for help with this post.

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Vegas

From my limited experience, my understanding is that Vegas oddsmakers rarely go with what makes sense. They base their lines on what they think the public will bet. That being said, it all comes down to the OOC schedule and the expectation that PS will lose the national championship game if they make it.

by PSFAN on Jul 8, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What they will bet

and to insure there is even money going on both sides of the gamble, they arent there to make you feel good, or to make sense, they are there to make dollars.

Sorry for the bad pun.

Ben and Alex... first commits for 2024

by 3Yardout on Jul 8, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

they being the public, d'oh

Ben and Alex... first commits for 2024

by 3Yardout on Jul 8, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Glass Ceiling

Even if PSU goes 12-0 next year, they will need every other BCS conference team to have at least one (in some cases, two) loss(es) to make the NC game. That is what is keeping their NC odds long, although everyone expects them to win 10+ games.

by Wlvrn99 on Jul 8, 2009 1:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Really?

Even though an 11-0 squad in 2005 would have gone to the MNC game after playing South Florida, Cincinnati, and Central Michigan? Even though a 12-0 squad in 2008 would have gone to the MNC game after Syracuse, Temple, Coastal Carolina, and Oregon State? An undefeated BCS school is getting into the MNC game unless there are 3 undefeated squads or 2 undefeated squads and one 1-loss school with a killer SOS.

by Cairo on Jul 8, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see it

PSU wasn’t passing USC or Texas in 2005. It just wasn’t going to happen. Same thing last year – I believe Florida, Oklahoma, USC, and Texas all would have been picked before 12-0 PSU if it came down to it. Not saying either case is right, but that is the current climate. Like most things, you can blame OSU.

Also, Oregon State was a much better win in 2008 than anything PSU will have on their 2009 resume, outside of possibly the other OSU.

by Wlvrn99 on Jul 8, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wrong

PSU was the CLEAR favorite by the oddsmakers after beating tOSU.

http://sportinvestments.blogspot.com

by HolyBuckeye on Jul 8, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I'm not sure where this is coming from.

I know the the OOC is weak this year, but (1) it’s not that much worse than a lot of other PSU schedules, and (2) it’s not that much worse than a lot of other 2009 schedules.

I agree with the 2005 comment, although arguable, PSU was probably on the outside looking in but that happens all the time; with 3 undefeateds someone is left out and if I remember correctly USC and Texas were 1&2 all year. Add in the Heisman stuff and it’s a done deal.

I’m just not there yet on the one loss SEC over undefeated Big10. Nothing even close to this has ever happened and every coach that isn’t from the BXII or SEC would have to be out of their mind to set that precedent. The writers might do it but even then, regionally they would want to be able to talk about the local team going to the MNC rather than the also-ran. There will be the buzz to do it but I’m not sure there are actually enough interesting parties.

I wont rule out some type of perfect storm scenario, where a team like Florida starts out #1, loses last second on the road early, blows someone out in the CG and Tebow is the clear favorite for the heisman, but I don’t see the de facto logic of claiming everyone needs to lose twice before a B10 team can get in.

Order your copy of "We Are Penn State" The offseason is long. So is this magazine.

by Kevin HD on Jul 8, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is a lot of speculation here

Because of some very loud voices that are pounding our OOC schedule. Well, those same people (and then some) were ripping on the Big Ten all year last year. Yet, after the Ohio State game, we were on track for the title game. Remember when we lost to Iowa and all the columns that came out about people breathing a sigh of relief because they wouldn’t have to see a Big Ten team in the title game? We beat Iowa, we would have been #1 by a large margin, especially after Texas and Bama had lost.

Now this year a lot of PSU fans are assuming voters will put a 1-loss SEC team ahead of an undefeated Penn State. I’m sure some will, but a lot will also always put an undefeated team ahead of a team with a loss.

But this is clearly getting way ahead of ourselves. I’m more worried about Ricky Stanzi and Arrelious Benn right now.

by speedomike on Jul 8, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I seem to remember...

After the Ohio State game in 2005 (to be fair, way too early in the season to say) that there was a lot of talk about how an undefeated Penn State would jump over an undefeated Texas in the BCS. It never came to that thanks to the loss to Michigan, but at that time people seemed to have some sense left in them and the Big Ten was doing all right…

Also, this can show how ridiculous it is to jump on teams for playing “soft” out of conference Div. 1-A teams, even if not in BCS conferences. That 2005 ooc schedule would be looked at as a pretty decent slate right now. You never know how the teams will shake out by the time you play them. I like to think we bring these teams to Beaver Stadium, beat the hell out of them, and as a result they learn to play football. So, ya’welcome South Florida.

by ChrisHarrell's_stache05 on Jul 8, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

before the UM loss in 2005.

The AP/Harris/Coaches poll had PSU ranked 8, 9, and 10.

The BCS rankings weren’t officially released yet, but the BCS computer rankings had Penn State 1, 1, 1, 2, and 6.

http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare2005-6.htm

It’s impossible to project with certainty, but I had a non-biased source that determined that had PSU gone undefeated and USC-Texas-PSU were ranked 1-2-3 in the human polls, the computer polls would have moved PSU ahead of Texas at the end of the regular season.

by Cairo on Jul 8, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And Florida

was clearly behind UM before the last week of the 2006 season. I’m telling you, once the NC matchup is staring them in face, voters re-assess. If their options are a PSU team whose best win is at home against OSU (who will have been taken behind their own woodshed by USC), or a 1 loss SEC/Big 12/ACC team who just won its conference in primetime, PSU is on the outside looking in.

by Wlvrn99 on Jul 8, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But

Michigan had a loss too.

by speedomike on Jul 8, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right

(1) The computers will probably favor PSU by a strong margin, although a lot of that depends on things like Akron fighting for the MAC and the BT-ND games.

(2) It would be a death wish for a coach not from the SEC or B12 to allow this to happen, and there are more non-SEC/B12 coaches who vote than SEC/B12 coaches.

(3) Michigan ‘06 isn’t really a fair comparison because that was more about deciding if two teams from the same conference, who had already played, should be able to shut out the other 5 conferences. In fact OMG SEC wasn’t really even in effect until after OSU and UM lost their bowl games after wanting a rematch.

Order your copy of "We Are Penn State" The offseason is long. So is this magazine.

by Kevin HD on Jul 8, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm starting to agree

I could see a one loss SEC or Big XII team jump an undefeated Big Ten team in the rankings if their one loss came against another top 10 team in their conference. Like it or not the perception out there is that the Big Ten is weak. Until the conference gets a few big out of conference wins the idiot writers will continue to beat the drum and the perception will not go away.

If Ohio State gets blown out by USC we will not have a single potential win on the schedule that will impress anyone.

by BSD on Jul 8, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the only way the league gets around that is if OSU completely blows USC out of the stadium. Though, even then, there would be the claims that “USC was injured” “USC was bored” or “OSU got lucky!!”.

Penn Staters belong at Penn State. The problem with a lot of kids is they just don’t know they are Penn Staters yet. -jesse. @ BSD

by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Jul 8, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If that happens

There will be a playoff by this time next year. Passing over an unbeaten MWC team raised a significant ruckus last year; jumping a BCS-conference team (and not even an ACC or Big East team, when those are clearly acknowledged – even by “OMG ESS EEE CEE” dolts – as the two worst BCS conferences) would cause all sorts of hell.

by SpartanDan on Jul 8, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ohio State

needs to take care of business against USC….we need the quality win points….

PSU Softball

by QBsneak12 on Jul 8, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No chance

Sorry – there is no way an SEC or Big 12 team with one loss jumps an undefeated Big 10 team in the polls to go to the MNC game. Or a Big east or ACC team for that matter. For all the talk last year about it potentially happening, the fact remains that had PSU beaten Iowa they would have gone to the MNC game.

If Ohio State gets blown out by USC we will not have a single potential win on the schedule that will impress anyone.

It was the exact same scenario last year, yet PSU was on track to go to the MNC. No one was impressed by the Oregon State win. There is no precedent for an undefeated BCS conference school being shut out of the national championship game by two teams with losses. It cannot and will not ever happen.

by catesinator on Jul 9, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm starting to agree

I could see a one loss SEC or Big XII team jump an undefeated Big Ten team in the rankings if their one loss came against another top 10 team in their conference. Like it or not the perception out there is that the Big Ten is weak. Until the conference gets a few big out of conference wins the idiot writers will continue to beat the drum and the perception will not go away.

If Ohio State gets blown out by USC we will not have a single potential win on the schedule that will impress anyone.

by BSD on Jul 8, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dadgum echoes

One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's

by rahpsu92 on Jul 8, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A part of me feels like it has just turned into a black souless husk for htis

but tOSU NEEDS to win v. USC if we have any shot at winning the B10 this year and going beyond t he rose bowl if we beat them (even thought the MNC is at the Rose this year). And if tOSU pulls out a win in the Shoe, the annual ego trip for USC which leads to a horrible loss against an inferior team would put them WAAAAAY out of title contention.

by dawsonPSU10 on Jul 8, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe USC is going with a different

tac this year.

1.) Lose early to good team – slide to maybe #10 at worst.
2.) Take care of business in conference.
3.) Coast into BSC Championship as teams above lose later in year.

One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's

by rahpsu92 on Jul 8, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No way

That’s what they’ll make you think, before they lose to UCLA.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Jul 8, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hear good things

are happening up there in the great state of Washington too.

One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's

by rahpsu92 on Jul 8, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with Rambler on this one

For all I know, they could go undefeated, and I spoke to soon. But there’s always the USC slip-up when they get so full of themselves that their egos blind them from realizing they’re walking into a potential trap game. Sort of like us except without the ego. We thought we were going to cruise through the end and be playing for the MNC, but concussions, horrible weather, and poor play by us crushed our dreams……god DAMMIT I hate Iowa.

by dawsonPSU10 on Jul 8, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, I know USC is a perrenial top player farm

But this is technically a rebuilding year for them. They’ve lost a lot, granted they’ll fill it right back the hell up with 5 star players, but most of them don’t have starting experience (and we all know how incredibly important that is to determining the success of you team)

by dawsonPSU10 on Jul 8, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Slightly different take

An undefeated big ten team will likely get in despite the grumbling. A one loss big ten team goes allllllllll the way back to the end of the one-loss line.

--
Order your copy of "We Are Penn State", like, now. One team, 128 pages.

by Run Up The Score on Jul 8, 2009 5:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

so what you're saying

is pretty much just like last year

by The JuggerNitt on Jul 8, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Last year: read every year

Except tOSU in 07, but that was only because there was absolute chaos in the last week of the season for the top five teams, and then a TWO LOSS LSU still managed to jump over everyone and make it to the title game.

by dawsonPSU10 on Jul 9, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well not quite

in 2007, OSU was 1 of 2 BCS teams with only 1 loss (the other being Kansas), and the usual undefeated mid-major (Hawaii for that year). LSU was just in the front of the line of 2-loss teams. This is actually a somewhat similar situation to an undefeated team, since a team with more losses (LSU – 2) jumped one of the two 2-loss teams (Kansas). I think being undefeated carries more weight, though.

by The JuggerNitt on Jul 9, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But Kansas didn't even play in the B12 championship that year

Let alone win it. Missouri won the North by beating Kansas (Missouri lost to Oklahoma twice that year, during the regular season and the B12CG knocking them out of BCS bowl game contention in favor of Kansas who only had 1 loss). I think being the Conference Champion (or at least division champ if you get upset in the CCG ala Oklahoma in 04?) holds a lot of weight for the MNC game but not as much for the other BCS games.

Bottom line, if Penn State happens to be 1 of 2 or less undefeated teams, I doubt the schedule will hold them out of the MNC game. But the schedule will keep them at the bottom of teams with the same record.

"I'm driven by greatness" - Derrick Williams

by HookMania on Jul 9, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well, since the conference champ gets an automatic BCS bid

it actually would hold more weight for that.

And I recall a time with Nebraska, as well as the time with Oklahoma you mention, where they didn’t even win their conference, and still went to the MNC game. Though I can’t think of a time where a team didn’t even participate in the conference championship game where they went to the MNC game, but last year with Texas it was close to happening (if Oklahoma had lost the CCG)

by The JuggerNitt on Jul 10, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Vegas is so smart

They don’t necessarily base lines on who they think will win the MNC or win over 9 games, but they adjust lines in a way to attract the most votes. A fun game to play every week is to look at the lines of ND every week. These lines are always out of whack because Vegas knows they can entice the stupid Domer fans into betting, then laughing as they pull in all of that cash.

This is pure speculation, but I think this may have something to do with the betting history of Penn State. It has to for it to be this out of whack. I’m not sure exactly what the history is or why they would do this, but it has to be something because they do their homework.

Blind guess: the odds look high and people see our schedule and say "this team can go unbeaten." But we all know how hard it is to actually go unbeaten, and one loss dooms us. And if they do think we have a shot, maybe they think that Florida, USC, Oklahoma, and Texas are on a different level.

Again this is all speculation on my part with no research.

by STU Boy on Jul 8, 2009 2:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The question is whether any of you would take the bet

Would any of you put up your bacon on Penn State’s chances on winning it all? Or winning over 9 games?

I’d definitely would put up some scratch for the 9 games. I think we’ll go 11.

by Mr. Rosewater on Jul 8, 2009 2:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

the question is

Not whether they get over 9, but whether you think there is better than a 66% chance of them hitting 10 or more wins.

http://sportinvestments.blogspot.com

by HolyBuckeye on Jul 8, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Basically

in order to at least push: will they win 5 conference + bowl games, since the OOC is basically a walk.

Iowa
@ Illinois
Minnesota
@ Michigan
@ Northwestern
Ohio State
Indiana
@ Michigan State

by Screen Name 20 on Jul 8, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

fyi

The win totals are only regular season.

http://sportinvestments.blogspot.com

by HolyBuckeye on Jul 8, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

Wasn’t sure so I lumped it in there.

by Screen Name 20 on Jul 9, 2009 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would

I spend more than $100 on any given Friday or Saturday night at the bars…I will galdly drop $100 for a chance to win 4,200. I really think we have a good shot at going undefeated.

How could Nixon know so little about Watergate and so much about football ?

by psupride on Jul 8, 2009 2:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I understand

but if they go undefeated they will most likely be in the championship game. Then it is just one win away

How could Nixon know so little about Watergate and so much about football ?

by psupride on Jul 8, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If it were a bet on our guys

going undefeated it would be a much easier betto take, but you are also betting your $100 that a bunch of d-bags that have screwed over PSU in the past won’t do it again. I don’t like those odds.

One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's

by rahpsu92 on Jul 8, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be intersted to see

Not that I think were 1) going undefeated or 2) have any shot for to make it to the MNC game despite my blind devotion and homerism. What were our odds to win it all last year. We came very, very close, but did we start with similar numbers for the odds of us making it after the QB14 ear with two inexperienced QBs, who luckily turned out to be stars. Just curious to see how we defied the vegas odds or not.

by dawsonPSU10 on Jul 8, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

right around 50-1

depending on the book.

http://sportinvestments.blogspot.com

by HolyBuckeye on Jul 8, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m just surprised that they gave us the same odds as an SEC team.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Jul 8, 2009 3:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

A sucker bet-to be sure.

Everyone knows PSU can’t beat any SEC team.

by Cairo on Jul 8, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Jul 8, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1 for you sir

Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.

"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."

by Roland86 on Jul 9, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Notre Dame getting +1800

Syracuse 24, Notre Dame 23, in South Bend.

by dmoney350z on Jul 8, 2009 3:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ND Lines are always stupid

simply because they’re are so many freakin ND fans out there. There is probably a ton of action on ND every Saturday.

"I'm colonel cool! And I'm the captain on this rocket to the stars!"

by psuphiman80 on Jul 8, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

remember

Lines are not about predicting the future, it’s about making money.

by Cairo on Jul 8, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Im not a gambler...

…so what does the 9 wins -100 mean?

I will put any amount of money on PSU getting 9+ wins this year.

If I put $1,000 on PSU to win more than 9 games, how much do I win?

WE ARE.......PENN STATE!

by Nick7 on Jul 8, 2009 4:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It is -200

you bet $1,000, you win $500 (plus you get your $1,000 back). Basically bet 2 dollars to win 1.

by Wlvrn99 on Jul 8, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

also, it is over 9 wins, not 9+ wins

which really just means 10+ wins.

I’d probably put them just around the 66% chance that HolyBuckeye cites.

by The JuggerNitt on Jul 8, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well 9 wins will get your $1000 back….I don’t see anyway that penn state goes 8-4….basically would have to go 4-4 in conference

I think this is one of the safest bets

How could Nixon know so little about Watergate and so much about football ?

by psupride on Jul 8, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

North Carolina: Over 8.5 wins

Any idea why is this not “over 8 wins”? To confuse the gambling public? Does a weather cancellation result in 0.5 of a win?

by gumbercules on Jul 8, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

To avoid a push

If it were 8 and UNC finished with exactly 8, it would be a push (you would get your money back no matter which side you bet on, but you wouldn’t win anything extra). At 8.5, a push can’t happen.

by SpartanDan on Jul 8, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does 'over' always imply there's a push if it hits that value?

The way I read it, and I’m no gambler, “over 8” sounds like you lose if it they only win 8. Is this just bookie shorthand for ‘the line is 8’ and you have the option of taking the over? I feel like this is the sort of thing that breeds distrust in novice gamblers, when the language itself can be multiply interpreted.

by gumbercules on Jul 8, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

In your example of “over 8”, 8 would be the line. Think of it as the breakeven point, where as “Over 8” you win. So you’re betting that they win “over 8” games, and break even if they hit 8, lose if they don’t.

by Screen Name 20 on Jul 9, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The prediction machine

Looks like something you’d find on an old, old wooden ship.

by Cairo on Jul 8, 2009 6:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Like Diversity?

"I'm colonel cool! And I'm the captain on this rocket to the stars!"

by psuphiman80 on Jul 8, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

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