Paranoia Strikes Deep. Beware Big Ten Officials at Work!
by joefromboalsburg on Aug 18, 2009 7:22 PM EDT
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PrintEvery year at this time I come around to reminiscing about seasons past, and appreciating what Joe Paterno has done for college football a little bit more. The instant replay should be called the Paterno Rule. I try to tell this story every year, because it deserves remembering.
The instant replay in college football is commonplace today. Since it’s inception, the number of calls against the home team and number of calls against the visiting team have been about equal, everywhere in the country. Also, the number of calls reversed is approximately half of the calls that have been reviewed. That is, you have about a one in four chance of having a call reversed, and going to your favor.
This is where Paterno comes in.
The Big Ten was the first conference to use the instant replay. The main protagonist was JoePa, who squealed like a stuck pig, and, at near-80 years old, did 70-yard wind sprints to tell officials what he thought about their integrity when he felt that they had blown calls against him.
Now, general football lore teaches one that these things have a way of coming out even, and that anyone complaining about officials is being short-sighted. JoePa was ridiculed by folks in the media over his ‘using officiating as an excuse’ when he lost critical games.
Now lets look at Penn State, and the Big Ten officials.
The first year that the Big Ten used instant replay, the numbers for instant replay results in every other program for the Big Ten other than Penn State reflected the normal numbers mentioned above. Half went for you, half against, and half of those overturned.
So your chance of getting a break was one in four.
Penn State had eleven replay events in the first year they were instituted.
All eleven were originally against Penn State.
All eleven were overturned, in PSU’s favor.
The chance of that happening is (1/4) to the eleventh power, or 1 in 4.2 million.
That’s one in four million!
You have a better chance of winning the Daily Number two days in a row!
Big Ten Officials have a strong anti-PSU bias. That is a fact, and is supported by the above numbers, which would be close to DNA-evidence credible in a court of law.
The league should be shamed by these numbers.
Joseph Paterno was certainly vindicated by these results.
However, the problem does not go away with instant replay. There are still a number of circumstances that are not reviewable.
So the anti-PSU bias continues to rear it’s ugly head whenever there is an opportunity.
The way I figure, all Pass Interference Calls against PSU are suspect, and probably half of them are wrong on purpose by these lousy officials. (Remember last year’s Iowa game? Close Calls? 100% against PSU.)
So if we do not go unbeaten this year, (and barring injuries PSU should be favored in every game) look to the crooks in stripes to be the main problem.
You heard it here first.
They stand in the way. They stand in the way……
For The Glory,
Joe
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Agree
It didn’t take long before I learned to just laugh and accept it. And yes, it happened during the Michigan game a few years back before instant replay happed. Those refs were corrupt, and everyone knows it.
We’re going to lose on close calls most of the time. Where were the holding calls against Ohio State last year? Scirrotto at Iowa? Allowing Bielema to go offsides over and over despite there being every right for the officials to flag him for unsportsmanlike? What about Michigan of ‘05, and the Loyd “gimme 2 seconds” Carr scandal? Green flagged in the endzone for pointing to God? What about Butler’s bizzarre penalty for still being in motion when the ball was snapped during the Rose Bowl, it nullified a 50 yard completion to him. Oh and then there’s Maybin’s lined up in the nuetral zone, which nullified a forced fumble.
Yeah, we get the short end of the stick more often then not. To my memory we do occasionally get a few good calls in our direction though, however exceedingly rare that may be. We did get a favorable call against Iowa that gave us an extra 1st down late in the game. It didn’t help. We didn’t get called on anything at Ohio State, and they did give us that pass interference call we desperately needed. Against Illinois last year I remember an extremely favorable call that I believe overturned a PSU turnover…
I guess the positive way to look at it is, when they do rule in our favor, we’ve learned to appreciate it more.
"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.
lolz
I think from now on I am going to refer to JoePa as Joe “gimme 2 seconds” Paterno. It was, after all, his 2 seconds that made all the difference.
sorry, if it was up to me
we would be nice to every fan from every team except michigan. They deserve no respect or consideration what so ever. They deserve nothing but scorn and ridicule. But it’s not up to me so I will try to be less of an evil bitter person about it. But I will always have a dark hard black spot in my heart for that day. Jumping up and down for joy that the streak had ended only to have it ripped away. And this guy is joking about it. Karma is a mean woman though, as evidenced by the rats jumping from the sinking ship that is the wolverines.
"It was an attrition football game and you know we like that."
I’d probably be offended by what you just said if it made any sense.
"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.
He also asked the officals to pay attention to the game
They didn’t. I saw it on TV.
Just friggin’ admit that Bryant Johnson was inbounds.
"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"
wasn't it Tony?
I thought it was Tony for both the Iowa and Michigan games (and how the exact same friggen call got blown in the exact same way)
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 19, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Tony
My memory is that it was Tony, and he was in. I also remember the play immediately before that was a PSU fumble that was prematurely blown dead. I also remember Gould missing a PAT wide and a short FG in OT, that he got another chance at due to a penalty.
Stuff happens. UM won. If you want to point to one play over an entire game and say it invalidates the whole result, then you can make an excuse for any game your team has ever lost. It is weak, and PSU has a strong enough program that I find it a little sad.
I don't think the result is invalid
I think that call was totally blown, and if Paterno didn’t speak up about it the Big Ten wouldn’t have done a damn thing about it.
Do you think the Big Ten is the first confrence to have instant replay if Minnesota lost the game that way, and Glen Mason is doing the bitching? I don’t. I think if was anybody other than Paterno they would have gotten a big fat suck it from the league office.
Even with Paterno the leagues inital reaction was to try and to Paterno out to be a raving lunatic when he said “hey, these officals suck”. The fact is the officals sucked. The other fact is several of them were/are from Michigan and are actively Michigan fans. That. Is total BS.
"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"
Fwiw
It’s a little sad to me too, a PSU fan. My personal code of fandom prohibits me from this kind of excessive officials complaining, all due respect to my boalsburg and pittsburg brethren.
Only exception I make is for Terry Porter and his late flag in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl; I’ll cite that one all day long.
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
There was a link once posted by our friend at WWAHT that appeared to prove the call in the Fiesta Bowl was correct. I wish I could find it.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Aug 19, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Listen, all I know is, you guys owe us 2 seconds. And not 2 Beaver Stadium seconds, that’s not how it works; we want 2 seconds from your clock.
No but seriously, I don’t take any of this seriously b/c like I said earlier, it’s really hard to remember getting the benefit of a call but when you get burned it’s etched in your memory forever. If you’re in a game and lose by a bad call or two, my adage is you didn’t play well enough to earn the win anyway.
"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.
by millzners on Aug 19, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I rec'd this because it's exactly what I think
I heard it first from Bill Koll, the former PSU Wrestling coach and, arguably, the greatest collegiate wrestler ever. He’d say: If you put yourself in a position where a bad call could cost you the match, you didn’t deserve to win.
I also refer to the remembering the bad & not the good as the Howard Cosell Syndrome. When I was a senior in high school, the Pirates played the Orioles in the World Series. (yeah – I’m that old that the Pirates were really good when I was in school.) After the first couple of games, some of us were discussing it in the cafeteria. Those of us that were Pirates fans were saying how biased Cosell was against the Pirates, but the Orioles fans were saying he was biased against the O’s. I wondered how that could be, so I tried to pay attention to what he actually said. I noticed that Cosell would praise whatever team was doing better & not just a little bit. So, of course, when he is praising the team that is doing better, the other team is doing worse & their fans remember it more. When your team is up, you don’t remember what he saying as well. It makes sense from an evolutionary point. Think about cavemen in that which is more important to remember: that the blue berries from this bush taste good, or that the red berries from that tree made your stomach hurt?
Born and raised in the shadow of Mount Nittany
by Elihu on Aug 19, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
"If you put yourself in a position where a bad call could cost you the match, you didn’t deserve to win."
That’s what we try to teach the kids in their rec sports. It’s just easier to complain about the one bad thing. It’s human nature, unfortunately.
Also, blueberries – mm mm good.
"The sea was angry that day, my friends." G. Costanza
I agree as well
but I also agree that if you’re in a game and win by a bad call or two, then you didn’t play well enough to earn the win, either, yet they still get it (and sometimes flaunt it)
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 24, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly...
….I think it all evens out in the end. It might not even out in the game or even the season, but it evens out in the end.
…I am sure we will get a couple favorable calls this year against Iowa and in our bowl game that will bring the Crystal ball back to Happy Valley!
WE ARE.......PENN STATE!
Was watching the ‘95 Rose Bowl yesterday. Late in the 2nd, (think the score was 14-7) Oregon got absolutely jobbed when Carter fumbled around our own 20. The officials didn’t see the fumble, according to Keith Jackson and Bob Griese.
So, yeah, we’ve gotten our share of calls.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
the thing I most look forward to with JoePa being back on the field
is a good JpePa-referee fight. It has been way to long
"If you let the men in you've got to let the women in. I don't want a bunch of women walking around in my locker room when guys take showers". Joe Paterno
by letsgopsu on Aug 18, 2009 10:06 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
We love ya JoefromBoalsburg
Do I have to turn in my tinfoil hat when I leave? Or should I just keep it for the next fanpost?
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
Tinfoil Hat Size, 6 7/8......but the facts remain.
Hey, I know all about Gothard’s Grave etc. things happen. But the facts are the facts.
I do not make the news, I just report it.
The math is correct, one in four million.
The bias is there, it is real, and it is a lot less in play since the JoePa Rule has been in place.
For the Glory!
Elizabeth, the only person on earth working at the same job longer than JoePa.
by joefromboalsburg on Aug 21, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, I have to play statistics police on this one.
“All eleven were overturned, in PSU’s favor.
The chance of that happening is (1/4) to the eleventh power, or 1 in 4.2 million.
That’s one in four million!”
If the eleven were all overturned in PSU’s favor, that means we’re defining a “replay event” as “a time when PSU challenges a play” rather than a time when there was a challenge at a PSU game.
So that explains that PSU had an abnormally high rate of success at replay. Whether that shows a bias in officiating (that magically disappears 11 of 11 times when challenged) or a bias in our challenging remains to be seen. Perhaps Joe Paterno is more conservative (a shocking proposition, I know) than the other coaches in the Big Ten and is only willing to risk a time out when he knows he’s getting good odds. More on this in a second.
Also, the 1/4 should be 1/2 making the supposed odds 1 out of 2,048. 1/4 is the probability of any replay being overturned in PSU’s favor. But more meaningfully, 1/2 is the chance of a replay being overturned in PSU’s favor GIVEN THAT PSU was challenging. The only time a call can be overturned in PSU’s favor is when PSU is the one challenging! (And even if you wanted to talk about the 1/4, that carries the assumption that PSU and its opponents use challenges equally)
The point being though, there are only three explanations:
One, a 1 in 2048 statistical anomaly.
Two, a vast conspiracy against PSU by the Big Ten.
Three, Joe Paterno doesn’t like to challenge a play and risk a time out when he doesn’t need to.
The first year...
instant replay was put in the college game there were no coaches challenges. Everything came from the booth. I actually think it is still that way, but someone please correct me if I’m wrong. It’s not the same as the pros.
We are not normal. We are legends.
by NittanyAlum02 on Aug 19, 2009 7:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Not so
I don’t remember the logistics of it exactly, but there was a system where a team had to call a timeout to have a play reviewed, and if the call was overturned they got the TO back. It took a couple of years before they just started automatically reviewing every call.
"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno
by leeharvey418 on Aug 19, 2009 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Double NSFMF
The first year, replay was only done from the booth, and you were at the mercy of the official to stop play. As the year went on and it became clear that the official was too slow to stop play and review close calls, coaches began burning timeouts to “encourage” a longer look. Eventually, the Big Ten allowed that if a replay went your way, you could get the TO back, but that was not part of the initial system.
Also, it the “11 of 11” stat in this chain letter is hilariously untrue, and I feel sorry for any fan who reads this and buys in to the claim. PSU has a great program; leave the whining about what could have been to the Illinoises of the world.
Awesome
Can we have a a bunch of guy from Pennsylvania officiate future games against Michigan? If you are so certain that it doesn’t mean anything, that’s great. But it would really put my mind at ease.
"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"
Fine by me
As long as they are from Pittsburgh and hate PSU.
Seriously, I understand that Big Ten officials will, for the most part, live within the Big Ten geographic footprint. I trust that any mistakes they make will be due to their ample incompetence rather than be part of an anti-PSU conspiracy.
Really?
We can’t even have died in the wool Blue and White Penn State fan? Because that seems really unfair. I am a licensed official, and I would be glad to work the next Penn State/Michigan game. I’ll even be fair. I promise. Although I doubt that sets your mind at ease.
As long as they are from Pittsburgh and hate PSU. That’s cute, although it proves my point.
There is an apperance of impropriety here. My problem with the Big Ten is that they really think thought they could ignore it.
"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"
"they really think thought" sounds rather Orwellian
and kinda fitting in this post
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 19, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
jesse. officiaitng a game
would be awesome. I would pay extra
"If you let the men in you've got to let the women in. I don't want a bunch of women walking around in my locker room when guys take showers". Joe Paterno
Trumpet
I’m pretty sure in this context, 1/4 is the appropriate number. Coaches didn’t get to “call for a review”, and so all reviews were handled by the booth. With the booth making the call, there should be a 50% chance the call was suspected to be bad in your favor, or in the opposite team’s favor. Then there is the 50% chance that the call is overturned, resulting in a 25% (1/4) chance that there was a bad call originally against you that was overturned in your favor.
Of course things get skewed a bit more when you consider that it is another Big 10 official handling the replay to begin with, so there technically could be even more bias in that official not replaying a call that he suspects would be overturned in PSU’s favor. Maybe the real number in that first season should have been 20/20 overturned calls. Or maybe the officials knew that since replay essentially came about because of Penn State and Joe Paterno, they knew their games would be scrutinized even more, and so there was bias to make sure you got Penn State calls correct. Or maybe the replay officials were grateful to JoePa for providing another job for them.
It is hard to really isolate the system enough to account for everything, but if the 11/11 number is true, that is pretty staggering.
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 19, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh blah blah blah
Don’t ruin this for us, trumpet.
Uncle joe- can you tell us the story about who killed President Kennedy again? That one’s my favorite.
"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno
by leeharvey418 on Aug 19, 2009 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I could really...
go for a Hershey’s kiss right about now.
One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's
I'm with ya Joe from boalsburg
I didn’t know the number of overturns the first year of replay but I did know that we won EVERY replay and that alone shows the bias was still active. The big2…10 refs took a whole year to figure out how to subvert the system with "quick whistles, unreviewable plays, etc. " that allowed the bias to continue. No one in their right mind can reasonably explain the first year numbers of replay overturns in PSU’s favor as somehow OK or believable as normal. No sir, it proves Joe’s, both of them, positions.
As far as visiting fans excuses for the bias….its no different now than when it happened at numerous scum games….“all is well with the refs”, “it all evens out”, etc. Well, when your ox is gored I want to hear the same BUT, the scum womens bball coach went on a tirade about refs in a game last winter so I guess…IT isn’t OK when it EVENS OUT is it my scum friend. No, it won’t even out in any important way, particularly in a football game against scum with the game on the line in the fourth quarter like it ALWAYS did in the past, in scums favor. You make me laugh you dufus. Go back to anns harbor and sit in your basement and keep posting as there are no jobs left in scum land. Keep you mind off your states horrible unemployment by enjoying the replays of ref assisted “victories”, you must be so proud.
A bit harsh...
For the most part the guy is just taking the opposing viewpoint and argues without making personal attacks. I didn’t think you needed to bludgeon him so thoroughly.
One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's
Wait
That was directed at me? Really?
Fwiw, I live in PA, and am currently employed.
Oh god, it took me two seconds to understand this picture
and I really wish I hadn’t figured it out.
by dawsonPSU10 on Aug 19, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
perhaps this wll help to illustrate my earlier point
GIS ‘oh snap’ there are some real gems out there
"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.
I hereby move that millzners be given a time-out.
"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno
by leeharvey418 on Aug 20, 2009 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions
To the corner young man!
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
I'm not sure which picture is worse
because this hairy old dude is completely nakers, besides the cape, and is creeping me the Zug out. Is this flaggable material? Because this is going to haunt my dreams.
-1000
As a biased fan
it is really hard to differentiate between true biased officials, and just my perception that my team is getting screwed. It is kinda funny, though, how the only team I root for where I feel the bias is generally in my team’s favor is the Yankees.
I also don’t generally mind the little missed calls here and there, which I feel do tend to even out over the course of a game/season, but it is the game altering calls that really bug me and almost always seem to go against Penn State (though I probably don’t tend to dwell on the calls in our favor as much as I do on the ones against us, for obvious reasons).
As for the number of overturned calls in the first year of replay (which if I recall correctly, were all handled by the booth, and had no coach input or timeouts, except those used by coaches to give the replay guy more time), 11 seems like a reasonable number, but Wlvrn99 seems to adamantly think (though I’m sure he thinks he knows) that this is an incorrect #. I also recall a 100% “success” rate, so I’d like to see a link to this stat from someone if they can find it.
From the Big Ten...
Instant Replay By The Numbers: During the 2004 campaign, play was stopped in only 28 of 57 contests (49 percent) for a total of 43 stoppages and 21 overturned calls (49 percent of stoppages). These numbers compared favorably to the Big Ten’s instant replay pilot program, as the data collected in 2003 showed that play would have been stopped in 31 of 68 games (46 percent) for a total of 45 stoppages and 23 overturned calls (51 percent of stoppages). In addition, the use of instant replay did not significantly affect game times as the length of the 57 games utilizing instant replay in 2004 was only three hours and 16 minutes, compared to three hours and 13 minutes in all 2003 contests. Less than one stoppage occurred per game in 2004, as the Big Ten’s average length of review was only two minutes and 39 seconds, compared to the National Football League average of three minutes and 20 seconds for its instant replay system.
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/041405aaa.html
Can't find team specific data
I’m sure it is out there though.
that link doesn't really address what I was asking
since if Penn State really did account for 11 of the 21 overturned calls (or perhaps the 11 included calls that were NOT overturned for the opposing team’s favor?), that would show even MORE bias, as more than half of all “bad” calls would then be attributed to Penn State. I suppose the burden is really on joefromboalsburg to produce this statistic.
I tend to believe the 11/11 is a rather high number as well, though. This link, especially, shows my doubt.
http://www.collegian.psu.edu/archive/2004/11/11-09-04tdc/11-09-04dsports-04.asp
It was from a Nov 9, 2004 game against Northwestern, where the first 2 overturned calls in a Penn State game occurred, and were both in PSU’s favor. I have a hard time imagining there were 9 more calls in the following games against Indiana and Michigan State.
Perhaps, again, the 11/11 stat meant calls that were reviewed and not overturned, and this was in PSU’s favor.
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 19, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
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