Prognostication By Candlelight
by Run Up The Score on Aug 26, 2009 1:38 PM EDT
in Football
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PrintThe Harrisburg Patriot-News guys weigh in with their 2009 season predictions. Commence angry commenting...now.
And while we're here, you might as well post your predictions for this season.
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Good, but not angry enough.
--
Order your copy of "We Are Penn State", like, now. One team, 128 pages.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 26, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
What's the old saying?...
“You’ve got a face for radio”.
One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's
Northwestern and MSU???
For realz? These guys are doucheabags, no doubt!
I bleed Blue and White.
by Horse N Buggy on Aug 26, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
NORTHWESTERN?!!
Don’t they win the Big Ten like, once every appearance of Haley’s comet or something???
Ohio State not winning the conference, Penn State losing 3 games, and Northwestern going to the Rose Bowl. That’s rich.
I'm going with 10-2. Today, at least.
Subject to change five minutes from now, especially that last game.
Akron (W)
Syracuse (W)
Temple (W)
Iowa (W)
@Illinois (L)
Eastern Illinois (W)
Minnesota (W)
@Michigan (W)
@Northwestern (W)
Ohio State (W)
Indiana (W)
@Michigan State (L)
I think Michigan and Ohio State are both going to be trainwrecks (different levels of trainwreck, mind you) and I’d expect Sparty to get their offense going by the second half of the season, but we’ll see on that one. Just can’t see Iowa getting out of that primetime game with a W, but they always play us tough. So does NW in Evanston, fwiw.
--
Order your copy of "We Are Penn State", like, now. One team, 128 pages.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 26, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions
Also, I think two losses in the conference will still be co-champs.
It’s going to be a weird conference season.
--
Order your copy of "We Are Penn State", like, now. One team, 128 pages.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 26, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Really? A loss at MSU?
I realize we have painful memories of 2007, but this isn’t the same team, and MSU isn’t going to be as good as they were last year. Their mainly one-dimensional offense of Ringer, Ringer, Ringer, is gone, Hoyer is gone. Defensively, they will be good, but I don’t see that winning the game for them. They’ve got to find a running game and a QB good enough to throw to their receivers first before I consider them a legitimate threat.
by dawsonPSU10 on Aug 26, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I do agree with 10-2, though
but at this point I can’t say where its going to come from, honestly. IMO, just looking at the schedule:
Iowa is still a big defensive threat, but after losing Greene, I can’t see them walking out of the White House with a win.
Illinois is a HUUUUGE question mark because you never know which Illinois you’re going to get. Juice to Benn is a definite threat, but if we pressure Juice enough (and I think we have the front 7 to do it), we can make him make mistakes. And their defense is questionable.
I know nothing about Minny, but I don’t see problems with them until I see how they perform in the first part of the season.
Michigan, while playing in a hostile environment, and a difficult one even when they suck, is worrisome. However, I think Clark and Lee are good enough leaders to see us through this one. They’ll be starting a true freshman at QB (and Zug forbid they have to go with Sheridan, they might as well forfeit), and while some of the defensive players may be talented, I don’t know if they have the coaching to pull it all together.
NW is scary, being in the middle of the “Big2” sandwich. I think this one comes down to leadership. If Clark and Lee can keep the focus of the entire team on what is directly ahead of them, and not what game they play the next week, I think we’ll be fine. Otherwise, we may have problems.
Ohio State. Nothing really needs to be said. They will be the biggest home challenge IMO that we have this year. With the tremendous losses on both teams, and the disadvantages of both, I see this as a close win. But nothing is ever certain with them, despite their questionable QB.
I’ll skip Indiana.
Michigan State will be a tough defense, and by the end of the season they may have found a groove at QB and RB to give our D a challenge. But it’s going to take a lot for two QBs who’ve never started before to jump in there, and not struggle, especially against a front 7 like ours. And replacing Ringer will be near impossible since that was 75% of their offensive production last season.
I mean the way I just ran through these right now sounds like a 12-0 season, but with the questions with each of the teams I listed, combined with our own team’s question marks, makes 12-0 an extremely, extremely unlikely scenario for me, despite the “easy” schedule. I see 10-2, but just like why pre-season polls are so stupid and pointless, there’s no way to accurately judge which questions will become legitimate fears or comforts until we see these teams and our own in action.
by dawsonPSU10 on Aug 26, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Skip Indiana?
Hey buddy- haven’t you heard that the road to the Big Ten championship goes through Bloomington? …except for when it goes through Landover, Maryland.
"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno
by leeharvey418 on Aug 27, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
This makes me feel:
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
what the....?
I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member
by TheMightyErik on Aug 27, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
As always...
12-0 playing for the MNC!
Main reason, we have a ton of leadership on this team. DC on the offense, Lee on the defense.
Our talent level is extremely high. We will be favored in every game this year. I just feel we have too much talent and speed for the teams on our schedule.
No game worries me, until Pasedena. I expect to see Texas in that game and the Colt McCoy passing offense is very scary.
WE ARE.......PENN STATE!
Your optimism, while cute, makes me sad
I don’t share it, because so far, we have no evidence that we’ll be able to pull it all together, or that our opponents won’t be better than we first thought. No games have been played, so optimism (or pessimism I guess) is completely unfounded at this point until we have evidence to say otherwise (maybe that’s the scientist in me).
by dawsonPSU10 on Aug 26, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
btw what was jones' prediction last season? 8-4?
"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.
I say 11-1 only losing to E. Illinois
You guys laugh but they’re a good football team. They can do some things. The whole bit.
Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.
"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."
They have a couple good ball players.
WE ARE.......PENN STATE!
by Nick7 on Aug 26, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sue scouted them.
Then we drank Ole Grandad and hugged like grown men.
by Jeff Junstrom on Aug 26, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't mess with Bob Spoo.
The man has the most boring and negative quotes I’ve seen.
http://www.quotesdaddy.com/author/Bob+Spoo
"I believe we have to run the football. It was a grave disappointment last week."
"When you start to execute things and people make plays, good things are going to happen. That’s what we didn’t do in the first half. In the second half, we did some pretty good things. Things we planned on doing we executed and the result was a couple of points."
Snore.
Record
It will depend on the maturation of the offensive line and wide receivers. If they come along, the offense will remain wide open. If it does not, Hall and Jaypa will get really conservative in the road games (ala Q14’s years). I think they go 10-2 (lose at Ill. and MSU), but wouldn’t be surprised if they go 9-3 with a loss at Northwestern (caught looking ahead to tOSU or THEM (haven’t won there since before I could drive).
by Esteban d' Amur on Aug 26, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions
If we lose at Illinois
then I don’t think we’ll be subjeced to any more “caught looking ahead” games, as the hopes for a national championship will likely already be dashed. We may suffer from “our season is over, we don’t care anymore,” but I don’t really expect that, and perhaps they’ll realize that there hasn’t been an undefeated BCS team since 2005, so they could still be in the hunt.
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 26, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
10-2
Ohio State will beat us. We played well against them last year and got lucky Pryor fumbled. And for the person who called them a train wreck, ummm when has any Jim Tressel coached team been a train wreck and with Pryor at QB there will be no such thing. 10-2 is a good way to look at this season. Ohio State a train wreck….HAHA
Troll
Don’t feed it.
Just created his handle today, and this is his first post. Obviously an Ohio State Troll.
"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.
I'll explain anyway.
Been hearing a lot of bad stuff coming out of OSU’s camp. WR’s look lost, Pryor’s not looking good on anything more than 10 yards, and the OL is a sieve. I just don’t know where the points are coming from against good teams, that’s all. We’ll see.
--
Order your copy of "We Are Penn State", like, now. One team, 128 pages.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 26, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
OL
It is a Boren-less OL at this point and he is there best player. Still reports like that are never positive.
"I'm colonel cool! And I'm the captain on this rocket to the stars!"
dude... whatever...
his long balls have awesome hangtime. You just can’t coach that… oh… uh… nevermind
I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member
by TheMightyErik on Aug 27, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
smelled that one
"...big hitter; the Llamma...long..."
by BlueWhiteLife on Aug 26, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
/deletes furiously-typed, explecitive-laden response while remembering BSD’s new family friendly atmosphere
Thanks for talking me down, millzners.
I bleed Blue and White.
by Horse N Buggy on Aug 26, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Cute SN though: PSU1Realist
Why would make a name like that? Especially when their first and only post is in a thread about record prediction. I mean obviously with our Too Country education we would immediately believe anyone who is a “Realist”.
by dawsonPSU10 on Aug 26, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Clues
Ok so assume this guy lurks around a little like everyone does before creating a user name. This guy’s reading, maybe for a few hours, maybe for a few days, and the thing that finally compells him to create a login and post for the first time is a negative comment about Ohio State. The very implication that Ohio State won’t be awesome this year is infuriating to this… ah… Penn St. fan… He can’t help himself but to go and point out the following in his first ever post.
1. we won’t win this year
2. we won b/c of luck last year
3. Tressel will never have a bad team
4. Pryor will never be part of a bad team
5. he mocks the very notion that Ohio State could have a bad team
Not only that, but he creates a user name that reserves the right for him to be negative about PSU, and then points to it almost immediately when defending his status as a troll. Then he continues to deny he’s a troll in ever subsequent post.
I’m not saying he isn’t a PSU fan, I’m just saying he is definitely an Ohio State fan. No one else would be compelled to create a login and post for the sole purpose of defending Ohio State on such a mildly negative RUTS post.
"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.
Go on
Get your Anger on, son!
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
I don't have any opinion whether OSU will be a train wreck or not
but I just can’t see any argument where they’re undeniably better than us (though when it really comes down to it, I find it hard to really believe any team around the same “tier” is undeniably better than any other team). So when I look at OSU and PSU I see very similar teams with similar problems. You point out Pryor being the “thing” that will prevent OSU from being a train wreck, but as of yet there is ZERO evidence that he’s even a decent QB (yeah, he had good passing efficiency last year, but that’s sorta akin to saying Chaz Powell is a great RB because he averaged 9.3 YPC last year. When you have significantly fewer attempts, as Pryor did, considering he didn’t have enough attempts to even be ranked as a passer last year, and you mostly only do “safe” passes, your efficiency will look great. Anything longer, though, and his arm punts have just as good a chance of being intercepted as being caught).
Anyway, as I said, I see 2 very evenly matched teams, and while we are probably most likely to lose to OSU over any other team, I still would predict a win for us just based on home field advantage.
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 26, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Ohio State historically
Last year is one of maybe two or three games where the teams were closely matched at the home team lost. Usually, unless one team or the other is much better than the other the home team wins.
Obviously Ohio State is going to have a decent team, they can win. But past history suggests that Penn State probably will.
My guess is any losses we take, be it 1,2,3 or 4, will be on the road.
"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"
I always make a fresh batch
of the blue kool-aid every year and consume it heavily. I “discovered” Penn State footbal just a few years before the ’79 Sugar Bowl loss o Alabama. I have always looked at EVERY Joe Paterno team as a potential champion. Mostly because of the “the man” himself, what he brings to the table and this school year in and year out.
This year is no exception. I think the easy OOC schedule is just wha the doctor ordered to give the O-line and this year’s installation of the Spread HD (read “pass-not-just-wide” receivers) the experience necessary to get ready for the big games . . . the ones that you look at on paper today and say “they could go either way”.
While I do not understand how we got where we are with our preseason ranking, I’m not going to complain. Perfect position for the teams above us to show who’s pretending and who’s gonna play us for the championship!
But, hey, I think I said something like this last year FWIW. In fact, I even played out a scenario for a buddy of mine where we still made it after the IA loss (some of them happened, but, alas, some of them didn’t).
So, even though there’s only been a couple of years where that kool-aid stuff tasted a little extra sweet in January (‘83, ’87 and for my money, ’94), it’s always a good time guzzling the stuff up. Became even funner after a couple of us here at work, discovered his place.
"the secret to loving your job is having a hobby that you really despise"
Not too far off
..I mean, usually Im not a fan of Jones for his basketball coverage, but Northwestern could very well be 7-1 by the time we play them. And for whatever reason we always struggle there. Illinois could be tough, I dont see us losing more than two games. If we end up being 5-0 I’ll be a big believer in what this team could do.
Northwestern could be 7-1
Very true. I think that would be beneficial. You don’t ever look ahead when you’re about to face a team with a record like.
Ohio St.
isn’t winning in Happy Valley. They lost several good players, like Beanie, Jenkins, Laurainaitis, Hartline, Robiskie, etc…. Pryor(aka Vince Young 2.0, aka Uncle Rico) will find out what country is with a helmet in his chest.
I look at that schedule, and I think we can win all, but if there is a trip-up game, it is at Illinois. We find a way to lose some dumb game every year(see Iowa last year and Minny 10 years ago). I have a feeling that if we get past that game unblemished, we can run the table.
We find a way to lose some dumb game every year
So we’re essentially the USC of the east.
I bleed Blue and White.
by Horse N Buggy on Aug 26, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I can live with that
"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno
by leeharvey418 on Aug 26, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
So long as we don't become
the smug, overconfident, cocky, undisciplined, NCAA violators USC has become, I have no problem with that moniker.
by dawsonPSU10 on Aug 26, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Meh
I just want to watch football, no more talking about it. I don’t care how crappy or good Akron is, I just want to watch a game.
Success without honor is an unseasoned dish; it will satisfy your hunger, but it won't taste good.
Not a Troll
Not a troll what so ever. Never posted on this site because I never knew about it until a co-worker (who is a new employee) told me about it. Live in Lancaster and have been a PSU fan my whole life. Notice my name is realist tho millzners. I am being real and don’t think we will beat OSU. I just think they re-load every single year and it shouldn’t be any different this year. Tressel, even if you hate him, finds a way to be in on the big ten race every year. IMO best coach in the conference. Not a troll ok? Just speaking the truth.
Welcome to BSD
If you hang around a while you’ll see we tend to be a little on the optimistic side here. But at the same time we’re realistic in pointing out mistakes and problems with the team. And we try to stay away from extremist labels like “Kool Aide drinker”, “doom and gloomer” and “Realist” since they only divide people and create animosity. People can go to BWI if they want that crap.
On that note, when someone signs up for an account and their first sentence says Ohio State will beat us, they tend to get the troll label slapped on them pretty quick. We don’t have a problem with you predicting a Penn State loss. As long as you just respect the other members of the community we’ll have no problems.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
Hey dude, that's no way to rep the 717
I bleed Blue and White.
by Horse N Buggy on Aug 26, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Tressel > Paterno?
Nah, you’ve convinced me. You’re no troll.
by dawsonPSU10 on Aug 26, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I know right? Dude had me at that point too... I have been so blind all this time
I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member
by TheMightyErik on Aug 27, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
PSU Predection
Thanks for the welcome Mike, greatly appreciated seems as though I can’t get anyone else to believe I am a real Penn St. fan. I will respect the other PSU fans because I am on YOUR side I am just playing devils advocate I guess.
Also for dawson who puts the Tressel>Paterno…all time no I don’t believe Tressel is a better coach, there is no one maybe in the history of this game who is a better coach than JoePA but right now it is yet to be seen if we are on the same level as tOSU, we do it once every few years and they are in the NC hunt (fairly or unfairly) every year. Bradley and the other coordinators have done a great job recruting and game planning (esp. last year) but I would love to see this talk year in and year out (talk such as National Championship). Lot of season left and again Mike thanks for the welcome, Ill try and stay as optimistic as a can.
It's all good
Just be yourself. If you think the team needs work, point it out. If you think Tressel is better than Paterno, just say so. It won’t get you banned around here.
Our only rule is respect each other. No name calling. No accusations. Keep the profanity to a minimum. Do that and you’ll be fine. Maybe we’ll change your perspective a bit and we’ll have you brainwashed in no time.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
I accuse you of being an awesome blogmaster
even if I have to break a rule to do it
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 27, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone way up top.......
Had a great point about both OSU and PSU having similar problems and I agree. Both have new WR’s both have a secondary that is suspect with key losses. I think it comes down to QB play and right now we have the slight edge. Clark is a proven PASSER while Pryor is the hype. Pryor getting the nod for POY was a joke and it should have been Clark.
My big gripe was that we as PSU fans are going on about how OSU can’t be a loss, well it certainly can be and usually is a great/big game for both teams. I did come off as a troll, but I do not root for OSU, i guess i just like how the program is run? I like that reload is the word used for them, and want PSU to just reload every year.
I don't think anyone here legitimately thinks OSU CAN'T be a loss
and they’re definitely the toughest team we play against (as it stands right now). I think it mostly comes down to people being more worried about other games than the OSU game, since we should win every game on our schedule this year, but letdowns do occur, and they’re more likely to occur on the road, against an underestimated opponent (such as Iowa last year). I know personally I’m going under the assumption that both teams being equal (which is how it looks right now), the players are going to be so pumped up for this game that we won’t have a let-down because of that, and also because it is a home game for PSU, and that typically gives you a 6 point advantage over playing against the same team at their home.
Besides, it is too cliche to pick the obvious team to beat us (haven’t you watched enough ESPN?) and you don’t get to say “hey, I was gutsy and predicted this upset at the beginning of the year”.
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 27, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough
Except for Nick, who always picks PSU to win everything, I don’t think anyone here has predicted a 12-0 season. The general consensus is we’re going 10-2 or 11-1, but nobody really wants to name which games they think we’ll drop.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
Yeah
Pull his finger. If your speaker’s on, you’ll get the full ‘multimedia’ effect.
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
11-1
Squeak past OSU, and NW, beat everyone else by at least 14, lose to Illinois.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
Should be a good season but...
I want 12-0 (what PSU fanatic does not) but I hedge on 10-2 because I do not have a strong feeling one way or the other. There is a lot to see and a lot that could happen. I can see us getting a lot better as the season progresses and if we stay healthy and get good play from some of our younger untested players, especially at key positions such as QB (injury), O-Line(inexperience), and D-Backs(inexperience), I can see us running the table. Of course, I can see us at 7-5 if all the wheels fall off and we have some bad luck. Basically, I think it is too close to call. I would have placed us a little lower than number 8 to start the season also.
Peter
I'm happy to see they finally used a real microphone
Relying on the camera’s mic is not only amateurish, but it has a snuff feel to it.
Oh, like I said before: 12 – 0. My left is an onion, my right is a grapefruit. And you all are pussy cats…without the “cats”.
My left is an onion, my right is a grapefruit.
Are you talking about your testicles? You may want to get that checked out, you’ve got some serious swelling down there.
by dawsonPSU10 on Aug 26, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
How about the still frame?
How about that still frame before you hit play with Flounders puffing out his cheeks and Jones clenching his fist. I think that deserves an impromptu caption contest.
Listen, Bob. I’ve tried your two-handed technique and it just doesn’t work for me. I’m an old-fashioned right-handed up and down guy.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
I'd like to complain
but only because there wasn’t a link to whatever images or video they may have been viewing at the time.
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 26, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Guy on the left: {with overbearing tuba music in the background} “My wife just left me. She saw that I changed my Facebook status to ‘Random Play’ and that I was hanging out at the local disco in Second Life.”
Guy on the right: {in what can only be classified as a drunken uncle voice} “WE’RE GONNA GO INSIDE! WE’RE GONNA GO OUTSIDE! WE’RE GONNA GET ‘EM ON THE RUN, WE’RE GONNA KEEP ’EM ON THE RUN!”
Granted, I didn’t watch the video because I’m at work, but that’s what I imagine those guys sounding like.
by Jeff Junstrom on Aug 26, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Muffled Voice from guy on left
“DUDE GET YOUR INVISIBLE LIGHTSABER OUT OF MY MOUTH”
Success without honor is an unseasoned dish; it will satisfy your hunger, but it won't taste good.
Ugh...
That was bad, almost as bad as when family guy cuts off to Conway Twitty scenes that just run on and on and on, brutal! Suddenly, ESPN looks a lot more credible…… well I wouldn’t go that far yet.
by RudyWasOffsides on Aug 26, 2009 3:39 PM EDT reply actions
Agreed about Conway Twitty
I also hate when they have Peter fighting the chicken for 10 minutes in a 22-minute episode. Lame.
I bleed Blue and White.
by Horse N Buggy on Aug 26, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
those Conway Twitty scenes are very Andy Kaufmanesque
annoying and funny at the same time, and very polarizing
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 26, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Flounders and Jones
I don’t mind these guys that much. Don’t always agree with them and although Jones went to tOSU you can tell he has no love for that program under Mr. Sweater Vest.
by Esteban d' Amur on Aug 26, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions
yeah, I wouldn't like my coach either
if all he did in his 9 years at my program was bring the team to 3 MNC games and win 1 :-p
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 26, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Jones thinks...
Sweater Vest is shaddy and not on the up and up.
by Esteban d' Amur on Aug 27, 2009 7:03 AM EDT up reply actions
While 9-3 is possible
Jones is showing his Buckeye roots by predicting it. The odds are against PSU not finishing the season with double digit victories. I’m in the 11-1 camp with 10-2 being possible but less likely IMO.
It's smart on his part
It’s a lot easier for a writer to explain why he was wrong and maintain credibility when the team overachieves than when you predict 12 wins and the team goes in the tank.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
Or
Ron Bracken during his tenure. Dude was always “too many questions” no matter what the situation. I always saw that as being a little “feline”. You basically then get to say (if it’s a good year)
“I felt all along that this could be a magical season, just unsure during the preseason, blah, blah, blah”
or (if it’s not)
“I said during the preseason that there were two many question marks to have high expectations”.
and end either “analysis” with “Ain’t I just a wonderfully, smart sports guy?”
"the secret to loving your job is having a hobby that you really despise"
heh, well actually that would be a wondefully smart sports guy
as he’s pretty realistic about the situation (namely, college football is too unpredictable to make any reliable prediction pre-season).
The guys who go out there and make confident predictions usually rely on the fact that few people will actually call them out on it if they are wrong, but if they’re write they get to toot their own horn about how they predicted it correctly.
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 26, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
This talk of making predictions reminds of a long time ago ...
when I was buying my first place. I was in the sales office of some condos. The sales guy says to me that the experts are predicting that interest rates will be going down in the near term future, but then rise sharply. He’s trying to justify why I should be buying at that time. I start smiling & he asks me what is so funny. I say that I had just talked with my father the previous day, he is an economist & I had asked him what he had thought the rates would be doing. I said that my father had said that nobody knew what the rates would do & anybody who said they did was lying. Turns out that my father was more accurate than the sales guy.
Born and raised in the shadow of Mount Nittany
Good point
but every now and then you’d think he’d throw his readers a bone which he never does. He didn’t have to go 12-0 or anything but 9-3 was a real low ball prediction.
12-0
We don’t lose until an ugly national championship game against Florida. Clark’s in the heisman race all year, but we all know that Chaz Powell/Royster are the real MVPs. Front 7’s too tough on defense to expose the secondary.
I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.
If we make it the NC game there’s no way in hell we’re losing.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Aug 30, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
This season is hard to predict
I’ve been pretty good (read +/- 1 game) in my pre-season predictions dating back at least til 2002 when I started keeping track of it, though I was actually pretty off in 2003 & 2004, where I was predicting 7 & 6 win teams, respectively. Last year I really believed we were going 12-0 (especially after OSU’s games @USC and against Ohio and Troy), but “played it safe” and put down 11-1.
This year I’d break it down like this (barring any catastrophic injury like losing Clark):
12-0: 10%
11-1: 25%
10-2: 40%
9-3: 20%
8-4: 4%
worse: 1%
I think our schedule is very favorable for going undefeated, but it is just so hard to do in college football that even a really good chance is usually still less than 10%. I just see us losing at least one, though I don’t know if it will be a hard fought heartbreaker, or a letdown game.
I’d put good money (if I was one to bed on sports) on us winning at least 10 games, and while that is probably the best bet, I’m going to go with 11-1 because that just feels right this year (plus I’m a big kool-aid drinker, plus this way if I keep up my trend of usually being within +/-1 this means that at worst we’ll be 10-2, and we still have a good shot at 12-0).
I don’t see us losing at home (though if we do it’ll probably be to OSU), so I’ll say our 1 loss is to either Northwestern (60%) or Illinois (40%…I just don’t see their defense doing ANYTHING to contain us, and I don’t believe a 1-dimensional “Juice to Benn” team will beat us). I can’t see us losing @MSU if we’re 11-1 going into that game. If we wind up 2 losses, I think the second one will either come at home to OSU (70%), especially if our first loss is to Northwestern, or @MSU (30%). I think the team could be deflated just enough to lose a close heartbreaker to OSU. I could even see that cascading into an end of season loss in the cold weather @MSU, but don’t really expect it to happen like that.
JNitt and the numbers...
Where’s 13-0 out there?
That’s what I am going with… screw it… 13-0. Why not? That’s what I want for Christmas and my birthday
I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member
by TheMightyErik on Aug 27, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
As we all do
however we have a lot to prove that we’re capable of in conference play alone before we start thinking bowls. I like optimism, but I don’t believe it’s possible until it’s mid-January, and a new off-season has begun.
by dawsonPSU10 on Aug 27, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I refuse to make a prediction against an undetermined opponent
because it is very rock, paper, scissory, where I think there are “better” teams out there that we can beat, and I think there are “worse” teams out there that would match up well against us and make it much harder for us to win it.
Florida could probably beat us with their defense, and their more than capable offense (all Tebow jokes aside). We could beat them too, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable enough to bet on it.
I think we could beat most any Big 12 school. Yeah, I know their passing offenses are very potent, but I think the bend but don’t suck would actually work pretty well against them, as passing offenses are much more prone to getting bogged down in the red zone.
USC this year I feel is an inferior team that we would be able to beat probably half of the time.
But in the end these are all predictions made on teams I have yet to see play a single down.
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 27, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I would LOVE to play a Nintendo 12 team
For exactly those reasons, I would just hope that it would be in a BCS game and not in San Antonio, so we could expose the flaws in the hype for teams that pass for 14 million yards a season, but have never faced a competent defense in conference.
We were so close last year to facing Texas for a MNC, but we both just slipped on last second plays. And if Ohio State came down to a last second play to lose to them, it would have almost certainly meant a National championship for us….sigh…
The big thing with the Big XII
Is just tackling. I watched a lot of Texas and Oklahoma games down here last year, and what shocked me was just how bad their defenders were at picking correct angles and just wrapping up a guy and bringing him down. I mean, they were just trying to arm tackle guys in the open field. I’m completely convinced that Penn State’s offense could hang with anyone in the Big XII south, and our defense would absolutely shock them with how fundamentally sound we are compared to what they are used to seeing.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
yep, basically why I feel the cover 3 could actually work
their WRs would probably own our DBs 1 on 1, but just keep them in front of you, make the sure tackle, and prevent the big plays. Once you’re in the red zone, their speed won’t matter so much (though their height would still be an advantage), but it is much easier to defend the pass here. I don’t imagine they’d have much luck running the ball at us, either, with our front 7.
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 28, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
PSU
10-2 and im sticking to it. Losses to OSU and Illinois. Not a troll but whatever u guys want to think is fine.
There are two teams on our schedule that can pass with any kind of consistency: Iowa and Illinois. Outside of those two, I don’t see our secondary in any real danger until the bowl game.
I think the team can pull off a 12-0 regular season. No way PSU loses to Iowa and OSU this year. Illinois, Northwestern and Michigan State will scare us, if they don’t beat us.
In the MNC game, it will probably be against either Florida, Texas, Oklahoma or USC, all of whom can and will torch our secondary.
this is essentially where i am, too
Although I don’t think we’re losing to NW (though we might get scared), and we might lose to OSU (but I don’t think we will). We’ll beat Iowa: any losses come from OSU, MSU, and/or Illinois.
I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.
No love for the arm punts?
"Want a donut go to dunkin donuts, want a linebacker go to Penn State." - Chris Carter
Illinois can pass with consistency?
Really?
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Aug 30, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Richie Cunningham meets Larry David
This is the sole reason Game 1 needs to arrive…I can’t handle these type of TOOLS pontificating!
There video is a lot better than the Bob Flounders online chat
It was the most non-committal script I have ever read. Every question is answered by a joke not relevant or something along the lines of “he’s a good kid, I’ll be cheering for him”. This Devon Still question is the epitome:
How does Devon Still look?
12:53 For selfish reasons, I am rooting for Devon Still and Jerome Hayes to have good seasons. Both guys have been through a lot at PSU with their various injuries..Devon was a big-time prospect as a true freshman.
10-2, of the most frightening kind
I think we go 10-2 as well- I think we are going to be a great team, however: it is much easier to imagine us losing two close games, at least one of them being the 12:00 away game variety, than it is to think we will be a rock of consistency and win every game in the regular season.
One thing in particular stands out to me as particularly heart attack-inducing: starting off the B10 season with a loss to both Iowa and Illinois. I think it is improbable, but by no means impossible with some bad luck. (Cue the South Park clip when Stan tries to get his dad’s Margaritaville returned at La Table.)
In that situation, even if we ended the regular season at 10-2, you would have to think we’d end having gotten little to no love in the MSM, and perhaps experienced the least exciting season in which we beat both Ohio State and Michigan in a long while.
I think that Illinois game will be a tough one
but at the same time, I am very confident for that Iowa game.
Great Job Everyone
at not feeding the troll. I commend each of you on your restraint. seriously, this could have turned out a lot worse.
"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.
I responded once
but it was nothing like the novel that JNitt wrote to him
by dawsonPSU10 on Aug 26, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
when does JNitt ever write nov.... oh forget it...
I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member
by TheMightyErik on Aug 27, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't get it!
I understand Penn State has had past troubles in Champagne but why is everyone so quick to jump on the Illinois bandwagon this year? While I agree that it’s gonna be a tough game, I can’t get over how many people are predicting a loss. The last time I checked, you still have to run the ball to set up the pass. If they establish any type of a run game, then this game has the potential to be the 1st loss of the season. If they come into the game thinking they’re gonna throw the ball 45 times, then advantage Penn State. The secondary might be “down” , but no team in the Big Ten is gonna win throwing the ball that much. Big Ten teams run the ball!
Besides, what does Illinois have on defense that leads everyone to believe they’re gonna stop the Spread HD? The only way this is gonna happen is if the coaching staff decides to go conservative, which I don’t see. Penn State gets a “W” here.
Now, let’s move on to the rest of the schedule:
Akron = blowout
Syracuse= blowout
Temple= blowout
Iowa= redemption game, whiteout, ehh too much for the Hawkeyes!
@Illinois= see above post
East ILL= blowout
Minn= they love coming to HV during homecoming, close 1st half, pull away in the 2nd
@Mich= could be caught sleeping (kinda like last year), sneak out with a W
@NW= something tells me this is the only game I’m scared of, COULD be the only loss
Ohio St= atmosphere will be crazy, the Pryor haters will be out, very similar to 2005
Indiana= blowout
@MSU= scary trip with everything on the line, the D is too good for Sparty
Best case scenario is 12-0
Worst case scenario is 11-1
I’m going with the best case scenario though. I honestly believe there’s too much talent and leadership on this team to let an undefeated season slip by. The schedule is in their favor, the defense is gonna be unbelievable, and there’s enough talent returning on offense to get to the NC game.
Penn State = 2009 Big Ten champs and will play Texas in Pasadena for the NC.
Just call me the next “Kool Aid Drinker”
Penn State is back...
I agree with you. We have the best RB in the conference, and an experienced fist pumping QB running the offense. Combine that with two psycho LB’s roaming around knocking heads off, and we are going to be hard to beat.
I AGREE....
Illinois does NOTHING for me. way more worried about @ NW (I’ll be there) and @ Michigan
decent o-line play = 12-0
at this point, I’ve been thinking about the season so long and all the ways we can be 12-0 I’m, already bracing for an ass kicking in the MNC game (I’ll be at that one too since I live here…hbeach = Huntington Beach), sorry but the ZOMG SEC. sidenote- I think USC comes back to earth this year, like 8-4 style, or worse.
Illinois
All you hear is “Juice and Benn OMG AWSUM”
Who do they have on defense? Thought so. They’re going to lose a lot of games where they just get outscored.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
Here are my predictions
Akron (W)
Syracuse (W)
Temple (W)
Iowa (W)
@Illinois (toss up)- Big time trap game
Eastern Illinois (W)
Minnesota (W)
@Michigan (toss up)
@Northwestern (toss up)
Ohio State (toss up)
Indiana (W)
@Michigan State (W)
I choose to go with a win, lose, and toss up format. I really do not think there is a game on the schedule that Penn State should not win. Every game looks very winnable with the exception of OSU, but even that game does not scare me as much as years past. What I do feel is there are several trap games in this schedule, let me explain.
If you look back at most highly ranked teams from the past 10 years and look at their losses. You will no doubt find a trend that when they have a loss, 80% of the time it is a conference road game (thus you will see all three “toss-up” predictions being on the road in conference). The next big indicator of “trap games” is the let down factor, which games follow huge, emotionally charged, wins? Iowa followed OSU last year, just saying! The third thing I looked at was their offense versus our defense. Penn State has some real struggles versus spread offenses. They are more prone to look futile verses a spread than they are versus a more traditional offense. The toss ups I indicated all have spread offenses.
Now I know I have 4 toss up games and that it seems like it is not much of a prediction so I will give you more of a concrete number PSU goes at worst 10-2 this year. I like 11-1 actually with that Illinois or Northwestern game being the loss.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
One more thing
I also forgot to mention that if it is a 12:00 start on the road I would set the odds of a PSU victory significantly lower.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on Aug 27, 2009 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought trap games
were typically defined by being before (and after?) a big game, where the team is looking past them, and stumbles in the “trap”. I don’t think we’ll be looking ahead to E. Illinois :-P
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 27, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
This confirms it for me
Now, I’ve long felt less than tepid about this here Mr. Jones. Even put a poll up (warning this is before one of our friendly bucknut trolls brought us the preeminently cool ‘doucheabag’ moniker) to see what others (besides ruts—we already knew how he felt) thought of him.
But watching this vid seals the damn deal: David Jones is one monumental Doucheabag. Just flat uncool in every respect.
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
Here we go
Season predictions, followed by explanations.
vs. Akron: W 34-10
vs. Syracuse: W 44-3
vs. Temple: W 40-6
vs. Iowa: W 26-16
@ Illinois: L 24-23
vs. E. Illinois: W 55-0
vs. Minnesota: W 31-13
@ Michigan: W 20-17
@ Northwestern: W 35-17
vs. Ohio State: W 16-10
vs. Indiana: 36-6
@ Michigan State: W 24-9
Akron: Sputter slightly on offense in 1st half, dominating defensive performance with one blown coverage or other big play leading to a score by Akron.
Syracuse: Blowout, not quite like last year but maybe not far from it. Too early to expect offensive line to gel enough for 55 points again, even at home.
Temple: They are slowly improving and seem to be decent on defense. We’ll steamroll em.
Iowa: Trouble in the red zone. Field position battle slowly won by Penn State throughout, leading to field goals here and there. Iowa can’t get enough going on offense to hang for 4 quarters in the White House.
Illinois: I have a feeling this will be a noon game, which sucks. Sure we SHOULD win this one, but it reminds me a lot of NW2005 or Purdue2008. In 2005, we had I think 4 turnovers in the 1st half and NW couldn’t take advantage. Illinois will.
E. Illinois: Blowout of biblical proportions.
Minnesota: Workmanlike victory over a solid but not spectacular opponent. Decker probably gives us fits all day long.
Michigan: I think we squeak by here. On the road at Michigan still scares me, even if they really don’t have the horses to run with us on either side of the ball. I just feel like something bad could happen. I know I’m probably the only one.
Ohio State: Same gameplan we’ve had against them for every game in recent memory: Unwatchable chess match for 4 quarters. Win the field position battle, wait for tOSU to make a mistake, let the crowd help. I like our chances of TP screwing something up. Good player but not ready for this kind of a game in this environment yet.
Indiana: They’ll suck.
Michigan State: MSU gives us as much of a game as possible, but can’t find any points without Ringer or any kind of qb. PSU smells another Big Ten title (outright this time) and it’s too much for D’Antonio to handle. JoePa calls two late timeouts because it’s freezing and snowing in E. Lansing and JoePa is awesome.
11-1!
Side note: David Jones appearance on ESPN.com...
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4388990
Thaaaat’s good. If there’s one local voice out there speaking to ESPN about Penn State football, I want it to be the guy that thinks NW is gonna win the conference.
I clicked the link
watched “The Most Interesting Man in the World” commercial, and then realized there’s nothing David Jones could say to compete with that, and closed the window.
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 28, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
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