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Vegas Knows Best Can't Tell Akron and Syracuse Apart

29?  Zug laughs at your ridiculous understatements. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

29? Zug laughs at your ridiculous understatements. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Don't be fooled, it's not another MAC team. Penn State's line against Syracuse this week opened with them as a 28-point favorite with the over/under set at 53.  Then a funny thing happened: the line started moving up while the total went down.  That's confidence, especially when you consider there seems to be a public slant towards the Orange.

Despite Penn State not covering last week, and Syracuse almost winning (!), the line will settle on Friday just a half point lower than Penn State’s projected margin of victory against Akron.

It’s not very often Vegas entices people to bet against a mass-marketed team like Penn State, especially when playing a squad that has been ranked in the 100s offensively for four years going.  This is a good sign for Saturday, but an even better one if it’s based on Penn State being undervalued and not simply exploiting an overreaction to Syracuse’s near miss against the Gophers.

But what about Minnesota, maybe they just suck?  Maybe.  They face Air Force this weekend; a team picked to finish a very distant fourth place in the MWC.  They also racked up the largest margin of victory in week one, which earned them at least one first pLOLace vote.  The line: just three and a half points, which is basically the home field advantage bump.  Vegas thinks Minnesota is a middle of the road MWC team, which isn’t a good sign of you’re the kind of guy that writes your sentences in all caps.

Star-divide


GO FIGHT PRIDE WIN.  Speaking of teams you don't want to root for (but will anyway), it’s a tougher week two and one that could backfire quickly for the Big Ten. 

Purdue is a heavy dog to Oregon despite the deflation of The Punch. Indiana is somehow favored by 1.5 points against last week’s Wolverine meat, but I don’t see how they could possible win that game. 

Speaking of the Wolverines, their annual showdown with Notre Dame has new life, with the winning fanbase granted permission to declare demons exercised and a national championship probable.  A flu kicked in pretty heavy on me during the 3:30 starts last week, so I don’t have much to add to the Notre Dame -3.5 line.  I suspect a close game so long as the Wolverines can improve on the six turnovers they had in this matchup last year.

ISU didn’t exactly blow away their 1-AA cupcake last week either, but are still only a 6.5 point dog to Go Ahead Take One More Shot We Don’t Mind Iowa.  If Iowa wants to be ranked again this season I hope they can triple that.

And of course the Game of the Century.  Ohio State stands as a touchdown underdog to USC, and that has to be disappointing for Buckeye fans that were ready for revenge.

Compare that to last year: USC was a 10-point favorite in LA.  Adjusted for home field (the full swing of the move is around 6 points) and you actually have a much worse outlook for the Buckeyes.  Upsetting when you consider:

  • Almost the entire Pete Carroll defense was drafted last year and needs replaced
  • USC is replacing the 5th overall pick in the draft with a true freshman quarterback
  • Ohio State has the 4th best player in the nation under center (O RLY?)

So. We saw hints of this last week with way-too-close wins against proverbial cupcakes.  The competition steps up slightly for the most part and Vegas gets much more pessimistic about a conference that is playing increasingly flabby in the middle.

0 recs  |  Comment 72 comments |

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That ND line

Has me laughing. I think it shows that Vegas thinks Michigan will win, but they are trying to entice all of the national fans for the Irish to cover. They’ll say, “Hey, we beat them last year, we’re better, and we only have to win by 4 points! What an easy play!” There is something fishy about that line.

by STU Boy on Sep 10, 2009 12:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agree

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I bet ya Michigan wins by more than 10

I honestly hope they do so I can start mocking jtot.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This pre-taunt has me conflicted

oh, how to retort?….

/tonguetied /fingerstied

"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69

by jtothep on Sep 10, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

By the way

Will there be an interview between BSD and TNIAAM?

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Cool

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"needs replaced"

You can take the boy out of Pennsylvania, but you can’t take the Pennsylvania out of the boy.

by BSD on Sep 10, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

As a Penn State Business Student

I’m offended by the suggestion that I should know how to write.

Order your copy of "We Are Penn State" The offseason is long. So is this magazine.

by Kevin HD on Sep 10, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see anything wrong with that statement.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, lunch needs made and the groceries need bought.

by PSUJunny05 on Sep 10, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the groceries need boughten

fixed that for you

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno

by leeharvey418 on Sep 10, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As far as the line goes

I gotta think the line is similar because while Syracuse is probably better than Akron, the final score could be similar just because PSU may not be able to play it’s 2nd and 3rd string through the entire second half.

Or maybe I’m giving Syracuse too much credit. We’ll see what happens Saturday.

by dkelz1888 on Sep 10, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What's the over/under on Paulus?

O/U – on Lee faceplanting Paulus into the turf
O/U – on Paulus running like a girlieman to escape any number of rushers and throwing into the waiting arms of a PSU DB
O/U – on Greg Robinson making a guest appearance

by PSUJunny05 on Sep 10, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

four times in the game
three times in the game
he already got fired from Meatchicken?

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno

by leeharvey418 on Sep 10, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

3

1

0

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was going for gametimes

I think it will be:
one minute in
every time they call a passing play, initially 40 seconds in
at the start of the game, gerg will show up

by PSUJunny05 on Sep 10, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ohio State/USC

Maybe USC is walking into a buzz-saw here.

Ohio State is a legit top ten team and they are touchdown underdog, at home, at night, against a team coming in from the west coast, with a true freshman quarterback?

When was the last time Ohio State was a touchdown underdog at Ohio Stadium?

I don’t know.

"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"

by jesse. on Sep 10, 2009 12:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think this is a severe overreaction to OSU's near meltdown against Navy

While they did look terrible, and were a dumb pass from an anxious QB from having a tie game, I don’t imagine they’ll get trounced at home. USC is a good school who “reloads” but OSU isn’t that bad.

by The JuggerNitt on Sep 10, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really hope youre right

Well, I don’t REALLY hope. I just hope. Because as was covered in earlier posts, does anyone really like OSU? I guess I don’t like them less than USC.

by PSUJunny05 on Sep 10, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why do we hate USC?

They’re good. So what?

"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"

by jesse. on Sep 10, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again, it's the stroking from the ignorami

Today’s Florida is 2005 USC… yeah, they’re good, but we don’t need ESPiN reminding us of it every 30 seconds.

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno

by leeharvey418 on Sep 10, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because of the media and the Rose Bowl.

That’s why I hate USC. I don’t hate Carroll though. I respect him.

by PSUisMyHeart on Sep 10, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mark May

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, Soulja Boy

Also also, discounting PSU before the game was played (“We’re tired of the Rose Bowl”, “We’re tired of Big Ten teams”, etc).

This was made so, so worse when we lost.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also also also,

Rey Maualuga planting their stupid flag in the PSU endzone and then taunting the fans.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This was on the Steelers blog this morning.

Obviously a lot has been made of the incident with the terrible towels at the end of last season’s game. I know that is a big deal to the fans, but do you think it adds any motivation for the team?

BTSC: Well, Coach Mike Tomlin apparently spent all of five seconds talking about it. My guess is he said something along the lines of ‘the team that wins gets to do the talking.’[emphasis added]

That’s pretty much how I feel about that.

"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"

by jesse. on Sep 10, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, yeah, sour grapes

I’m just saying it’s another reason why I hate USC. Taunting the fans is just classless and moronic. Especially since the game wasn’t over yet.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I agree to an extent.

Light ribbing, celebrating reasonably with your teammates, thats all fine and good.

Its still classless to over-do it. Fan taunting, Flag planting, the whole team dancing like a bunch of zugholes. Especially for a group of kids who (by their own pre-grame comments) felt the game was beneath them.

And I felt like this when MSU did their flag thing. I feel like this if I see a PSU fan throwing things at an OSU fan, I felt like this with what LenDale White did his thing last year, Its all just garbage.

Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.

"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."

by Roland86 on Sep 10, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree.

But you’re either classy or your not. Just because USC’s kids we’re acting like a bunch of jerks doesn’t mean I get to act like a jerk.

The way I see it we lost, but I was proud of the way we lost. They won, if they’re proud of the way they won….well….good for them. It’s just not my style, but unfortunately that kind of stuff is par for the course these days.

I seem to recall a pretty popular picture of one our guys taunting the Ohio State fans at the conclusion of that game. What’s good for the goose?

"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"

by jesse. on Sep 10, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if it is the picture I think you are referring to

that was after making a game ending interception, and it was just him that was celebrating like that. The flag planting, sideline/endzone dancing seemed too pre-meditated, and team-wide, which is what annoyed me.

Sorta like how the courts look more favorably on crimes of passion than premeditated crimes

by The JuggerNitt on Sep 10, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Different degrees of the same crime I guess

Players shouldn’t be taunting fans.

"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"

by jesse. on Sep 10, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

agree, and people shouldn't be speeding on the highway

but the cops will overlook a car going 5-10 over, but you get a pack of cars going 30+ over?

I guess what surprised me most is that the refs didn’t throw a single unsportsmanlike at the group dancing on the field

by The JuggerNitt on Sep 10, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm glad they didn't throw a flag.

We don’t need their friggin pitty. Oh big bad USC is picking on poor little ’ol Penn State. My ass. Keep playing. Keep hitting.

I was proud of our kids that day.

"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"

by jesse. on Sep 10, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Its a rule in the rule book. It isn't about pity, Its about respect.

Its not about pity. Its about sportsmanship..

I also couldn’t have been prouder of our players that day.

Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.

"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."

by Roland86 on Sep 10, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought I indicated that it is retarded wether it is USC or PSU that is doing it

Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.

"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."

by Roland86 on Sep 10, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is why I dislike them

That horrible song and the stupid dance on the sidelines. That drove me insane.

by markpsu on Sep 10, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I Don't Like Them...

…because I don’t like the Hollywood treatment their guys get. When they say USC is LA’s NFL team, they ain’t kidding.

The other day, I saw Royster chilling at Perkins with a couple of friends. No one was making a fuss over him, he was just going about his day like everyone else. I guess that’s what my vision of a college athlete is. Maybe it’s a little naive of me to think that Royster lives the life the rest of us students do, but the adoration guys like Sanchez and Maulalugabadahahahaha get is just over the top to me.

I dare say Tim Tebow lives a life closer to ours than USC’s big names do, and he has a Heisman and 2 titles. So that’s why I don’t like USC.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by fugimaster24 on Sep 10, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dare say Tim Tebow lives a life closer to ours

Yep, as a matter of fact, I just walked on water yesterday. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go heal these lepers.

I bleed Blue and White.

by Horse N Buggy on Sep 10, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

+1

WE ARE.......PENN STATE!

by Nick7 on Sep 10, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The real question is

if you are with Paris or Lindsay, will Tebow be able to heal you afterwords?

"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"

by jesse. on Sep 10, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

He can't heal you

But he can circumcise you, if you wish.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see how that would help.

"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"

by jesse. on Sep 10, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Circumcision at the waist?

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno

by leeharvey418 on Sep 10, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OMG! What was he eating?! Why didn't you tweet to let us know??!!?!

Also, I hope you meant “eating” or “hanging out.” I’d hate to hear he was “chilling” at Perkins the way another of our student athletes “chilled” at the Library.

Bacon is almost as great as being a Penn Stater

by NittanyTide on Sep 10, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you do circumcisions too?

No. I was ashamed to be seen with you. I like being with you.

by Esteban d' Amur on Sep 10, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post

For one I think Vegas likes a sucker, and I think ND fans are suckers. They’re probably betting the house on that team and are in for a rude awakening.

Second, I have no idea of what to make of that USC game, but I agree with sentiment that their stinker against Ohio last year forshadowed a team not ready to play with the big boys, and I can’t help but feel the same has been forshadowed by their performance against Navy… BUT it’s Navy.

Third, I think Purdue is going to beat Oregon. I watched that Oregon game and I saw a team that completely lacked leadership, poise, and coaching. They called a sweep in the endzone that resulted in a safety. They were still running deep pass plays on 1st and 2nd down after 5 consecutive 3-and-outs.

"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.

by millzners on Sep 10, 2009 2:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agree to an extent about Purdue

I believe in Danny Hope. He’s like a young Tiller, and Purdue had some great upsets under Young Tiller.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another thing...

When Tiller took over in ‘97, one of his most defining early victories was when he beat ND that year, something Purdue hadn’t done in years.

If you catch my drift…

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get it?

Are you saying that Tiller might come back to coach them against Notre Dame?

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno

by leeharvey418 on Sep 10, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, he’s saying the young Tiller will come back and beat a robot version of the 1997 ND football team. I think.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Sep 10, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Correct

Complete with robot Bob Davie – programmed to screw up clock management!

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, okay

If there’s one person whose opinion I trust when it comes to robots, it’s Rambler.

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno

by leeharvey418 on Sep 10, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Droid

Not robot.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 10, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

plus

I kind of have it in for Oregon, their whole flashy uniform thing really rubs me the wrong way. This is football, you don’t get points for the flashy outfits, you just look even more stupid when you lose.

"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.

by millzners on Sep 10, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where does that leave Boise State?

"far less knowledgeable than the average poster here"

by jesse. on Sep 10, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Standing on the stupidest-looking field in the sport of football?

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno

by leeharvey418 on Sep 10, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Transitive verbs.

Come on, Mike. Please.

The defense needs TO BE replaced.

We are gonna shock them with 5,000 mega watts of raw ROO POWER.

by psuwxman on Sep 10, 2009 4:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Here's the spread

Maybe a half point lower than this. But no more.

by Mr. Rosewater on Sep 10, 2009 6:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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