Maybe We Should Have Seen This Coming

by Kevin HD on Sep 30, 2009 12:30 PM EDT in Football Comment 48 comments

To help set the mood, please skip to the 42 second mark.

You hear about the offensive line in the most general of terms on television, the WSJ sent the blogosphere nuts when they got all numbery in their description of its importance, and Michael Lewis sold who knows how many books explaining to us that left guards are now bringing in paychecks second only in size to quarterbacks.

Everyone is trying to understand the position, but no one has figured out a good way to do it. But we might have missed a sign, and we probably should have been more suspect of a Penn State line that lost three strong performers, switched the starters they kept to new positions, and besides wasn't turning in the numbers:

Year	Games	Carries	Yards	YPC
2008	Non-B10	87	671	7.71
2008	B10	193	1052	5.45
2009	Non-B10	66	291	4.41
2009	B10	20	84	4.20

[I only included Royster and Green in the chart above in an attempt to keep garbage data out of the picture.]

Now we didn't have that final line of data last week, but we didn't really need it, and besides it only helps prove the point: the offensive line has taken a very big step back.

I was concerned about the offensive line, I mean we were all concerned, but I rationalized it away with the following ridiculous points:

The embarrassing opponents we faced during the first three weeks were somehow playing an unfair defense we were too stubborn to adapt to. Joe even helped me out here:

"I think we had the ball 67 times. And I think all but maybe eight or nine times they blitzed. So when you're facing that, we try to be stubborn and try to run the ball because I think we need the work."
The three players we lost weren't exactly NFL blockbusters: Ohrnberger was picked 123rd overall (4^th round) and Shipley went 226^th (7^th round). Cadogan wasn't even drafted.
In maybe my most impressive display of irrational justification to date, people with lots of time and very good distribution deals would kinda ranked the Big Ten offensive lines (or so I figured) in this order:

Team	Points	Players
Penn State	10	3
Iowa	7	2
Wisconsin	7	3
Ohio State	6	2
Michigan State	5	2

Maybe he (or it is I?) got some of those right, but not the one we were hoping for.

I think the lesson here, if we even feel like learning one, is that the offensive line is not in any way the sum of its parts. That and I still hate Iowa.

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Comments

Completely agree with your point and I have been thinking about this recently, even before the Iowa debacle.

However, the writing in this post is a bit disjointed and could use some work, Maybe it was on purpose since it was written about the disjointed offensive line that could use a lot of work? Love the blog (think it is the best PSU blog around), but I guess I just hold it to high standards.

by NewStadiumInsider on Sep 30, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Huh

Assuming this wasn’t some outstanding sarcasm I missed, I didn’t think we’d get an English major on the first reply. These guys do have full time jobs, and even between them, spewing out 2 or 3 posts a day while working full-time and/or sipping pina coladas at their grottoes is probably a challenge. So I’m willing to be gracious and let a few typos and things slide.

Now if things get ridiculous and posts turn into completely incoherent babble where the point isn’t even discernible, then I think it’s fair game to give them crap.

Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.

by 06Lion on Sep 30, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tact

Your opinions on the quality of writing in this post belong in an email not in the comments.

by jigalion on Sep 30, 2009 2:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

I’m a huge proponent of the blog – I tweet about it all the time and tell all of my PSU contacts about it whenever possible.

I know the pitfalls of running a blog, and I would appreciate the feedback (even in the comments) if someone noticed a post that didn’t seem up to par.

Trust me, that post wasn’t meant with Malice. I’m sure Kevin had good reason. The message and idea of the post was spot on and very compelling. I just think it seemed a bit rushed and didn’t read as well as it could have. I think most bloggers have aspirations to become better at what they do, so I thought I offer some public criticism. I am sorry if I was out of line.

by NewStadiumInsider on Sep 30, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by Mr. Rosewater on Sep 30, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whatever. With me you’re getting typos, if that isn’t clear by now is should be. If you want typo-free writing go find a Jay Mariotti column, he’s got an editor.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Oct 1, 2009 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look, no typos:

BSD

by Kevin HD on Oct 1, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

-14

NO, NO, NO! NOT GOD BLESS IOWA! GOD DAMN IOWA! THAT'S IN THE BIBLE!

by ReadingRambler on Oct 1, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 1, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's fashionable

to pile on the O-line right now, and they deserve their share of the blame, but for all that, we win if you can eliminate second-half turnovers, which were committed by Clark & Royster. I had recorded the game, so I watched it again, focusing on Pannell to see if he really deserved to be pulled. I was curious because, I wondered how someone who the coaches feel should be the starter in the 4th game of the season suddenly gets yanked after one mistake. Overall, McCormack did look a bit more confident and composed, which begs the question of why he wasn’t in there in the first place. (I didn’t see any of the first three games, so I don’t have any other reference) On many, many plays the O-line held its own or even performed admirably.

There’s also such a thing a bad design. On the play where Royster had to stretch out to avoid the safety, that play where everything slants one way is worthless. I don’t see how it’s even possible for a lineman to generate any push while moving laterally, and I’m not sure where the RB is supposed to find a hole. It’s too easy for the D to react to it. You may remember in the first half of the Rose Bowl, they ran the same kind of slant to the left with Green, and it was stuffed there, too, on a 3rd & 1.

by Joe 96alum on Sep 30, 2009 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m just disappointed in myself for not having lower expectations of the line. We lost for several reasons, but I didn’t expect Clark to be rushed so badly last Saturday and maybe I should have.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Sep 30, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

See, I'm a little disappointed in myself

for not having lower expectations of Clark. Sure, I remember him bumbling through OSU and Iowa last year, and recoiling at all his (mandatory today, sure) manufactured bravado leadership talk, but I also remember him standing tall and fighting for and leading a comeback charge in the Rose Bowl.

Lisa Salters reported pregame that JoePa had earlier taken DC aside and explained to him that this game is not all on his shoulders, that he needs to lead by taking what is given and remaining calm and poised. When ppl were wondering here why nobody went over to him in the 4th like Shipley did last year, I’ve been wondering if this was the answer: that JoePa already had.

"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69

by jtothep on Sep 30, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hate to say it

But I’ve posted this thought here repeatedly since the spring, culminating here last week where delusional fans suggested that Clark is a superior QB to Tebow and McCoy.

I love DC but he somehow gained much more credit than he deserved initially. He’s a very good college QB, not a great one, and we need a great QB to overcome all the problems with this offense.

by InScoresOfOtherGames on Sep 30, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I clicked on that with hesitation

Hoping I didn’t say something stupid in the thread. I didn’t.

--
"Not everybody is the perfect person in the world. Everyone does - kills people, murders people, steals from you, steals from me." -- Terrelle Pryor

by Run Up The Score on Sep 30, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HOORAY FOR YOU!

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 30, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I know

You’ve been pretty fair and objective.

My expectations weren’t delusionally high, just sadly higher than he performed the other night. Did you see the HD Playbook thing on FOS? They broke down one of his 3 picks and showed in one still pic some wac form where both feet were in the air in some weird jump throw and the duck was wobbling just out of his hands. He said the ball slipped when he threw it, but that doesn’t explain the footwork.

I also haven’t been shy about posting my concerns about Clark’s Composure. I just thought/hoped that after the Sparty beatdown and a fighter’s performance against USC, that he had grown into it.

Is it unrealistic to hope that maybe he still will?

by jtothep on Sep 30, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Iowa's line

Some schools have a reputation for developing a special part of the game. For Penn State it is Linebackers. For Iowa it is Linemen. Last year when I saw Iowa’s starting o-linemen measurements I knew we were going to have a rough time as we did again this year We don’t need to go ballistic about our poor performance against the best team linemen in the league. Now if Illinois pushes us around then we have a major problem.

by ageing lion on Sep 30, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if mixing things up would be beneficial now.

Play with the talent that you have and make them improve. Their main issue is that they are inexperienced. I think shifting things around now just makes things worse and plays on the o-lines confidence. They know that they f’ed up, a good coach will build off that and have them work as a unit by the end of the season. All you really need is for 3-4 of the linemen to play effectively-a good quarterback and fullback can patch up holes against all but the best teams.

I’m still optimistic. It may not be pretty, but I think this team will be in the conference title race to the end of the season.

by Cairo on Sep 30, 2009 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

On many, many plays the O-line held its own or even performed admirably.

In the absence of a Still Life segment or a drive chart-accompanying video analysis, it’s so easy to broadly paint a performance with a few sweeping sentences. Were there dominating defensive plays by Iowas talented lineman? Yes. Did our Oline have success on many plays of their own? Indeed. That was a physical contest out there and oftentimes they got the best of us. But in re-watching the game myself again Monday night, I saw plenty of Oline successes that I’m counting on the coaches to build upon. And as has been noted here a few times, our schedule sets up nicely for our players and coaches to showcase what they’ve learned going forward.

by jtothep on Sep 30, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

we did have

a couple qb sneaks that went well, that was impressive to me compared with the prior games.

"How many things do you do where you are involved with 110,000 other people on the same page? Unless you're in an English class cheating with 30 other guys."

by psu on Sep 30, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a dishwasher, clean socks, a good o-line

three things that you don’t truly appreciate until they’re gone.

At this point in the season, I think its obvious to say that the big difference between this year’s squad and last year’s is the o-line. I always think the o-line is the most important part of any football team at any level—but it’s more important in the big ten than in the rest of college football becasue of the style of play, the weather, and how physical everyone is.

I think we do have the talent, but the guys just haven’t brought it all together yet. I think some of this can be blamed on coaching, but I don’t know enough to say. Hopefully we get there soon.

I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.

by spakajewia on Sep 30, 2009 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The o-line is new and inexperienced...

and the returning starters are playing different positions. A good d-line like Iowa’s is going to take advantage. We’ve seen the roles reversed and PSU is the one taking advantage of the situation. Hopefully they make progress and hold up better against tO$U. That will be the measuring stick. With the experience, they should be a real solid unit next year.

Never mistake effort for achievement.

by Esteban d' Amur on Sep 30, 2009 1:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ok...now

BRING ON THE ILLINOIS!

Settle it on the field!

by PSUncle1981 on Sep 30, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What was surprising to me

Was how the rest of the team reacted when our line did under-perform. It wasn’t shocking to me that the o-line was getting handled by Iowa after Akron’s goal-line stand… but what did surprised me is that when faced with adversity, our offense went into the fetal position. When our offense needed some poise and leadership we had none. When we generated a little momentum we couldn’t sustain it even for a single drive.

So hopefully those are the things that we see an improvement in. The O-line will come around, maybe in late November, maybe sooner… But in the meantime I expect to see improvements in our poise and leadership — especially from Clark. We can win a lot of games with this defense as long as Clark keeps his poise.

"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.

by millzners on Sep 30, 2009 3:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hear hear!

by jtothep on Sep 30, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's a question I've been asking myself all week

How much of that ugliness we saw on Saturday was weather-induced? If that game was in 65 degree clear skies, how many interceptions does Clark throw? Does Royster still fumble w/out the rain? Does the Spread HD break down in bad weather? I think we still lose either way regardless of the weather, but is the game still a sloppy disgrace like we saw?

"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.

by millzners on Sep 30, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know dude

I spose it’s fair to ‘ask.’ But the sloppy disgrace could easily be applied to Iowa’s pitchers and catchers as well. That dropkicked pick of Sukays?

Anyway, I guess I feel it’s similar to asking about play calls, kinda smacks of sour grapes.

by jtothep on Sep 30, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ummm

‘asking about play calls’ was meant to be ‘asking about referee calls’ Not sure how I jacked that up…

by jtothep on Sep 30, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That punt wasn't blocked b/c it was...

raining. Rain didn’t seem to bother Clark on the deep touchdown. Iowa was the better team through the final three quarters. That is why they lost.

Never mistake effort for achievement.

by Esteban d' Amur on Sep 30, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

expectations

It’s always tough to gauge at team when new players come and go every season. I had a feeling we weren’t the 4th best team in the country, and I anticipated the game where we would learn our team is not that great and need to revise my expectations. I was hoping that would happen at least in late October and not September. It just hurts to have it happen on prime time against a team and fanbase that really deserves a kick in the junk way more than we did.

Also, going from the best o-line in the conference last year to this pile of crap really hurts.

I think our biggest problem right now is our QB. Based on my understanding of Clark, he must be a basket case right now. He didn’t guarantee a win, but he did guarantee touchdowns and we only scored one.

To have two games like this one and the Steelers @ Cinci game in one weekend is just horrible. Both teams were up by 10 points or more in the first quarter only to lose a demoralizing game. It’s just terrible. Even my fantasy team laid down.

Luckily we have the Illini this weekend. I want to see PSU kick the sh!t out of those guys.

"It was an attrition football game and you know we like that."

by showtime on Sep 30, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Was worried all summer

Mostly lurked in the off-season, but I did post a few times concerned about the turnover in key positions, especially the o-line. It’s not worth digging it up to explicitly say “I told you so.” But more people should have been cautious in their optimism.

I was actually really bothered by all the bandwagoners predicting titles and 12-0 and other crap. The thing about being a PSU fan is that you shouldn’t be a bandwagoner like USC or UF or OSU. PSU fans are real fans, they follow the team through ups and downs. No one should be out acting like a USC, UF or OSU fan before the team has proven itself. Last year, early in the B-10 schedule, it was clear PSU had a great team. Same story in 2005. Like the Amish, we don’t put the cart before the horse.

Hopefully the real fans are grounded now, and the team will improve to make a solid bowl. Hell, I won’t be embarrassed if the team struggles all year. The bandwagon predictions will stick in my mind, though. We don’t want to be like those other fans.

by gcdyersb on Sep 30, 2009 6:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not many realists predicted 12-0 for us

I’ve been a 10-2, 11-1 at best fan. Most of the people who said 12-0 though used it after they used the phrase “but with our schedule I could see us going”. Just wanted to point it out.

I’m forever a pessimist, and if I have one superstition it’s that I never enter any sort of thing like a season with confidence (or overconfidence I guess). Before we played Wiscy last year, I was extremely skeptical of our team. We hadn’t played anyone of importance (I don’t believe OrSU had beaten USC yet), and I wasn’t sure we had the tools to take it all the way. After Wiscy I believed in the team. My dad and I talked at half-time (and if anyone doubts the skill of the team before he sees results it’s my father) and HE said he could see this team going to the MNC. After we beat OSU, I thought for sure, we were going to go undefeated. The BSD banner was something along the lines of “We’re going undefeated, deal with it”, and we all know/choose not to remember what happened the next game. Unfortunately, that one slip up of overconfidence I had in our team has probably scarred me forever in terms of ever having full hope in a team again. I’ll now forever be doubtful no matter how many points we blow out an opponent with, about the future of any PSU team.

by dawsonPSU10 on Sep 30, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Unfortunately, that one slip up of overconfidence I had in our team has probably scarred me forever in terms of ever having full hope in a team again."

that was ‘99 for me. I had no idea how awesome a #1 ranking was and seeing Lavar on the cover of SI and all of that. Of course this year is the closest we’ve been to that in the polls except the end of 2005. I just wanted to enjoy #3 for a couple weeks.

"It was an attrition football game and you know we like that."

by showtime on Sep 30, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last year we were at #3 for two weeks

by PSUisMyHeart on Sep 30, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't get this

I didn’t agree with anyone predicting 12-0, but how does predicting 12-0 make someone a “bandwagoner”?

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Sep 30, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not so much the prediction

But more the mindset. I’m making the conclusion that someone who’d predict an undefeated season is probably a fan only because PSU has had a couple of really great seasons recently. And you know all the USC, UF and OSU fans who talk the biggest smack are there because they are riding the bandwagon.

So, the prediction isn’t bandwagon. It’s just something a bandwagoners would do. Draw the Venn diagram between the two, and there’s gonna be a lot of overlap in the middle.

Anyways, I’m all for following a great PSU team. I just don’t like the idea there are people who would follow only because of greatness. I’m in SoCal, and there’s nothing more annoying than USC fans. A loss or two, and the USC bandwagon looks like an empty struggle bus.

by gcdyersb on Oct 1, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never know how...

they are going to be other than a winning season. It is really hard to go unbeaten no matter the conference. It is rare. LSU won a mnc with two losses for crying out loud. I also don’t think predicting 12-0 was “bandwagon”. Based on the schedule and the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the opponents it wasn’t an absurd prediction.

Never mistake effort for achievement.

by Esteban d' Amur on Sep 30, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not at all

Vegas came out with lines and Penn State was favored in every single game. Now the chances of them stringing together all of those wins was something like 20-30%, but it was not far fetched to think the team could win 12 games, there simply weren’t any sure losses on the schedule based on what we knew a month ago.

And even the people who realized one or two losses was probably had a hell of a time picking which games would go bad…most predicted OSU and Illinois, some Michigan State. The bottom line is it’s all a crap shoot pre-season, and you can’t really blame anyone for being wrong.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Sep 30, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

12 - 0 was pretty realistic preseason

Several reasons:

1) Big Ten is bad. Ohio State was the only one considered to be a contender.

2) Faith that JoePa and the coaching staff would get the team ready.

3) DC, Royster, Bowman, and Sean Lee returned. We believed they were good enough to lead the team past anything ( three of which were recognized on a national scale, but who knew two of them would be injured so soon?)

4) Cupcake OC schedule. We thought it would help the team work out their kinks.

5) SI, ESPN, Yahoo Sports analysts had us in the mix for a NC. We were considered so good that they had us ranked in the Top 10. This only reinforced our expectations.

I highly doubt we would go 12-0 the next three years because of our schedule and the fact even more inexperience/unproven players will be starting.

by Mr. Rosewater on Sep 30, 2009 9:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually that last part is a concern next, maybe not the following two.

by Mr. Rosewater on Sep 30, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and 6) We keep forgetting about Iowa and how they own us

by Mr. Rosewater on Sep 30, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't they go off the schedule soon?

Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
Vince Lombardi

by PaJoe on Sep 30, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

I think it would be good for Iowa to stay on the schedule and rotate MSU off every so many years. I think to PSU, Iowa is really becoming a bigger “rival” than MSU ever will be. However, don’t think the Big 11 would ever do that.

Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
Vince Lombardi

by PaJoe on Sep 30, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ultimately...

Michigan should NOT rotate off the schedule. I don’t know who the brain busting wizards were behind that decision, but I bet the Big 10 would get more television money if we played them every year.

by Mr. Rosewater on Sep 30, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right....

I wasn’t even thinking about Michigan rotating off the schedule.

Never happen… but if the Big ten can’t get another member and have divisions with a playoff or something, they just should go to playing all the other 10 teams and have only 2 OOC games. Year in year out…there are enough “patsies” in the Big 10…… Ind, Minny, Purdue, Ill, NW…yeah they rise up for a year or so and are dangerous, but overall, Penn State should eat their lunch.

That would drive Curley nuts since he could never get 8 home games, unless, of course, we could get Indiana to play one of their home games in Beaver Stadium! (Sarcasm key). The other problem is a good Home and Home with a Nebraska or Alabama would never happen because the OOC’s would HAVE to be a home game.

Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
Vince Lombardi

by PaJoe on Sep 30, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not going to figure out how it would work, but having only one (or two if you suggest we keep MSU) team who plays 3 teams every year while all the others play two, might mess up some other schedules, and Michigan needs to play OSU and MSU more than us.

by PSUisMyHeart on Sep 30, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They have too many rivals.

You’d have to cut either the UM-MSU game or UM-OSU game…while the UM-PSU game would make more money than the MSU game, I’d be a pretty major sellout move. Not one the BT couldn’t do, but just sayin’.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Oct 1, 2009 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good morning,

Now that I see you are smelling the coffee, those of us who have been preaching that the performance of the O-Line had to improve if we expected anything this year feel sadly vindicated. My hope was that the line would gel during the pre-season in time for the B10 season, and even let myself think it had, for the first 10 minutes of last week’s game. Regrettably, the concerns I had in August were born out last week. Adding to this, the fact that Wisnewski is playing with fear:

“The thing holding me back from [snapping it quickly] is just kind of fear of having a real bad one, snapping it over his head or something, which is certainly a lot worse than having a slow one go back there,” Wisniewski said.

has me even more deeply concerned.

It looks like some changes are happening for instance giving McCormack a shot at RT, my hope is that enough change along with some more experience can carry us through the rest of the way.

(would have liked to apply the special formatting for the quote, but I do not know how to apply the format tools)

by ljdevine on Oct 1, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs