FanPost

Well, I'll be a monkey's uncle



Turns out someone helped RA out a little bit and went ahead and did some research.  Might have even figured out what elite means.  From an ESPN Insider article at http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/insider/news/story?id=5678264

...In college football today, it is more difficult to avoid both the land-mine game and the occasional land-mine season. This past summer at Football Outsiders, we used an estimate of our S&P+ measure to count down our list of the Top 100 teams of all time. If we define an "elite" team as one that finishes in the 95th percentile or higher in Est. S&P+ for a given season, we can see that streaks of elite play are much more difficult to come by today...

...Today's version of a dynasty is more likely to face occasional rebuilding seasons. For instance, take a look at three of the past four teams to play in the national championship game. Oklahoma rebuilt around a young core in 2005, then unleashed hell for three years; the Sooners dipped again last season but look to be on the verge of another run. Florida won the national title in 2006, lost four games in 2007 while putting together the pieces of a new defense (according to our S&P+ metric, it still finished in the 95th percentile), then won the title again in 2008. The Texas Longhorns won the title in 2005, rebuilt around a new core of recruits in 2006 and '07, then played at the highest possible level in 2008 and '09. They are now in the midst of another rebuilding year.

 

 

Another way to show how college football's depth continues to improve is to look at one of everybody's favorite math terms from high school: standard deviation. (If you forgot what that is, read this.) Est. S&P+ uses 200.0 as the general baseline average: Anything over that is good; anything under that is below average. In the 2000s, the standard deviation among FBS teams was 43.5 points. That means a large number of FBS teams (approximately 70 percent) will fall somewhere between 156 and 244 on the S&P+ scale. That standard deviation is by far the lowest of any decade in the past hundred seasons; the standard deviation in the 1990s was 57.6, and that's the next-closest...

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