Illinois Fighting Illini By The Numbers
by BSD on Oct 6, 2010 10:00 AM EDT
in Football
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PrintIt's time to turn the page on the Iowa game and start looking ahead to Illinois. So let's do by taking a look at the Illinois Fighting Illini by the numbers. Take note this week I added new categories for 1st Downs on offense and 1st Downs allowed on defense per game. I think this will be a nice compliment to the 3rd down conversion stats, since a team could have a great 3rd down conversion defense, but you may not get the whole picture if they give up a lot of big plays on 1st and 2nd downs.
|
Penn State |
Value (Nat'l Rank) |
Value (Nat'l Rank) |
Advantage |
|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 138.2 (75) | 130.0 (42) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |  |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 217.0 (68) | 192.3 (52) | Passing Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency | 101.9 (103) | 125.7 (65) | Pass Efficiency Defense |  |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 355.2 (75) | 322.3 (37) | Total Defense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 19.2 (100) | 18.0 (T-29) | Scoring Defense (ppg) | |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 118.2 (31) | 201.5 (29) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 172.2 (25) | 130.5 (113) | Passing Offense (ypg) |  |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 125.3 (64) | 103.3 (111) | Pass Efficiency | |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 290.4 (18) | 332.0 (88) | Total Offense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 15.0 (15) | 22.3 (86) | Scoring Offense (ppg) | |
| Net Punting Yds | 37.8 (39) | 2.7 (114) | Punt Return Yds | |
| Punt Return Yds | 6.8 (86) | 43.3 (3) | Net Punting Yds | |
| Kickoff Return Yds | 26.8 (9) | 20.1 (37) | Kickoff Return Defense | |
| Kickoff Return Defense | 18.5 (22) | 18.3 (107) | Kickoff Return Yds | |
| Turnover Margin | -0.4 (75) | -0.5 (T-81) | Turnover Margin | Push |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 18.0 (1) | 64.5 (T-89) | Penalty Yds/Game | |
| Sacks | 1.6 (T-79) | 2.00 (T-60) | Sacks Allowed | Push |
| Sacks Allowed | 0.6 (11) | 2.50 (36) | Sacks | |
| Redzone Offense (%) | 0.67 (T-114) | 0.75 (T-35) | Redzone Defense (%) | |
| Redzone Defense (%) | 1.0 (T-115) | 1.00 (T-1) | Redzone Offense (%) | |
| Redzone TD % | 0.33 | 0.44 | Redzone TD % Defense | |
| Redzone TD % Defense | 0.78 | 0.58 | Redzone TD % | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 43.7 (T-38) | 37.9 (56) | 3rd Down Defense % | Push |
| 3rd Down Defense % | 21.1 (1) | 38.5 (78) | 3rd Down Conv. % | |
| 1st Downs Per Game | 19.0 (T-73) | 18.0 (T-52) | 1st Downs Allowed PG | Push |
| 1st Downs Allowed PG | 14.0 (T-10) | 17.0 (92) | 1st Downs Per Game | |
Legend
Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Differences >100 in National Rank =
Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgement.
More analysis after the jump.
Starting at the top of the chart, Penn State's offensive woes are readily apparent. There is just nothing that Penn State is doing particularly well on offense other than protect Robert Bolden. So Illinois has the slight advantage when Penn State has the ball, but it's not because Illinois is all that great at defense. It's just that Penn State is that horrible right now.
The good news is that Illinois' offense is worse than Penn State's, and Penn State's defense is better than Illinois'. The Fighting Illini are one of the worst passing teams in the country. Even worse than Penn State, so whoo for that. I was curious for this opponent what their run/pass split looks like, so I looked it up. The Illini run the ball 66.7% of the time (169 rushing attempts vs. 84 passing attempts). Stopping running back Mikel Leshoure will be paramount, but State will also have to keep an eye on quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, who has 216 rushing yards on 51 carries this year. Illinois loves to run the zone read option which is something Tom Bradley's defense hasn't seen yet this year. So look forward to another rocky first quarter until the defense settles in and adjusts.
Illinois punter Anthony Santella is an outstanding punter that should give Illinois a huge advantage, but other than that Penn State should win the special teams battles. The Nittany Lions have made a miraculous turnaround in special teams this year, and they should have a decent advantage in the kickoff games.
Penn State has also been the best in the nation in limiting penalties. Considering the youth on this team, that is a pretty remarkable statistic. Illinois, on the other hand, shoots themselves in the foot regularly. In fact, they could have possibly beaten Ohio State last weekend if they hadn't gifted the Buckeyes two costly penalties on their final scoring drive.
So how do I read the tea leaves this week? It seems to me Penn State's offensive numbers are probably a bit skewed by the fact they have played Alabama and Iowa. So I suspect the Illinois defense should be a pretty even match for the Penn State offense. Now, Illinois' offensive numbers might be a bit skewed by having played Ohio State, but I think the Penn State defense should have a significant advantage. Look for State to load the box and force Scheelhaase to throw the ball. This is a one dimensional offense that the Nittany Lions should be able to stop.
Ultimately, this is a game Penn State should win comfortably, but the redzone problems are the big boogie man for this team. They could make four trips to the redzone, but if they come away with four field goals and Illinois scores two touchdowns in their trips, Penn State loses the game. This has to be the week where Penn State finds a way to punch it in.
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Each and every week...
Every week, it doesn’t matter what the stats say.
Every week, win or lose, we support our team.
Every week, true fans rally around their team.
Every week, we dig a little deeper and draw out the hope we nurture for the team.
Every week, we get a chance to begin again.
Every week, we are united with the team for one more game.
Every week, we learn a little more.
Every week, we get a chance to prove it on the field.
Every week, my coach stuffs a reporter.
Every week, my team is on the field.
Every week, WE ARE
"Success without honor is an unseasoned dish; it will satisfy your hunger, but it won't taste good."
Joe Paterno
thank you.
"Success without honor is an unseasoned dish; it will satisfy your hunger, but it won't taste good."
Joe Paterno
Penn State has also been the best in the nation in limiting penalties. Considering the youth on this team, that is a pretty remarkable statistic.
So true! And unremarked upon yet actually. I thought about that this morning. We did a boatload of substitutions in the drives we were actually gaining yardage, and I think only had the Haplea false start and a few Save Your QB Please holding penalties on offense.
That’s very remarkable against such defensive jocks.
My team is on the field. Playing for my coaches.
How can people (read: RUTS) bash this defense?
- in first downs allowed per game, #18 in total D (which considering that PSU is in negative territory in turnover margin, is pretty awesome), #1 in third down conversions, and #15 in scoring defense, and has done it against a schedule that’s 9-3 against non-PSU 1-A opponents (and truthfully, all 3 of those losses could’ve gone the other way).
Think about it: PSU may very well have played 3 of the top 4 opponents of the year in the first 5 games (in a game for my life, I would absolutely take Temple over Michigan right now. Michigan State—Temple would be difficult), and is statistically in the top 20 in all of those categories, and in the top 10 in two.
This defense certainly has room to improve, and isn’t as fundamentally sound (in the front 7) as some we’ve seen since 2004, but is very, very good, bordering on awesome.
Can you feel a little love? Dream on; dream on
That should read #10 in first downs allowed per game
I don’t know how auto edit managed to screw that up
Can you feel a little love? Dream on; dream on
The biggest problem right is that they’re 79th in sacks.
"We just ran out of time." [sly smile] - Joe Paterno
by ReadingRambler on Oct 6, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
exactly
Several times during the Bama and Iowa game there were opportunities for game changing sacks from our DE’s. But we just don’t have that breakout star in that position. You give this team a Mo Evans or Maybin, or even 2004 Hali, and you’d find we’d all be a lot more satisfied with this defense.
McGloin Despite Them
Preaching the McGospel since Aug. 2nd, 2010
Sure
I’d be the first to say this might be the worst front 7 from 2004-present, which, frankly, approaches a backhanded compliment more than a knock on them, but that’s one facet of one part of the defense, and #79 still keeps PSU out of the bottom 1/3 in college football.
Considering the youth on the team and the schedule in the future vs. the schedule in the past, I’m kinda expecting PSU to be in the top 10 in all of those categories (1st downs, total D, 3rd downs, and scoring) by year’s end.
Can you feel a little love? Dream on; dream on
The argument against the defense goes like this (NOTE: this is not my argument, but I have heard it)
The defense is terrible and gives up a bunch of points right off the bat. The offense is worse and so once a team scores twice they just play ball control and our defense looks better than it actually is.
I don’t agree, and the number of passing attempts by our 2 “big” opponents in the second half doesn’t support it, but I think that’s the argument.
'We've got too many people analyzing everything and sometimes they don't know what they're talking about.' -Joseph Vincent Paterno
by PSUinBOSSton on Oct 6, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the lack of consistency also adds to the argument
aside from the fact that we seem to constantly come out slow and let up a big play or two before shutting everything down. I think it sets people in the “our defense sucks” mood and then everything from thereafter is jaded.
Bogus argument, I agree with you.
However, we need to start coming out fired up and want to rip people’s heads off. That’s how you need to play defense. That is not how were are playing defense.
This.
Even in pressers, Joe is saying the play is tentative .. and he doesn’t know why. Part of it is undoubtedly youth/inexperience .. but if you go all out and miss the tackle .. well you still missed the tackle. They’ll get there. Hopefully sooner rather than later.
Is it possible that is why some fans say things like ‘d sucks’ etc, just to piss them off enough to get them geared up to rip someones head off? Not saying I agree with that tactic .. but it might explain a few things. We love our team .. and it is a tough love. Produce, consistently, and play like a mini-Joe every down .. or be condemned by the foul mouthed masses.
"Success without honor is an unseasoned dish; it will satisfy your hunger, but it won't taste good."
Joe Paterno
he just now looks angry out there and i like it.
There will be no battle fatigue in my command
by psu in the w-b on Oct 6, 2010 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
That argument is faulty and it's destroyed by statistics.
That being said, the slow starts create a giant problem for a team that struggles to put the ball in the end zone. We can’t be spotting teams 10 points because it’s like they’ll have at least one sustained drive over the last 3 quarters of the game. That means we’re giving up at least 17, and more likely somewhere between 20-28 points per game.
It’s not “garbage” and they aren’t “terrible,” but this is where statistics get problematic. It doesn’t matter how good they appear on paper if they can’t allow the offense (headed by a freshman QB) to have some room for error.
Defense
Not to mention, our defense has gone up against some top players/offenses:
QB Rating: Stanzi #5 and McElroy #10
Rushing Yds: Robinson (Iowa) #24 and Richardson (’Bama, and less games) #36
*
Unfortunately we have some tough players/offenses in the future:
QB Rating: Robinson (scUM) #3, Chappell #11, Cousins #12, Pryor #14, Weber #30
Rushing Yds: Robinson (scUM) #1, Baker/Bell (MSU) #14/#28
*
Our 1st quarter defense needs to step up big time.
Illinois = Bargain Bin Penn State
Defensively, they’re pretty good. Penn State is significantly better.
Offensively, Penn State is meh-to-below-average. Illinois is bad.
On special teams, PSU is better at everything except net punting, and PSU isn’t terrible (#39) at that.
Illinois is much better in the red zone, but this is very much a “consider the schedule” thing. The only team with a pulse Illinois has played (Ohio State) has no running game save the QB and currently has a poor man’s Graham Zug as their best receiver.
Can you feel a little love? Dream on; dream on
PSU punting
Fera punted one for 12 yards(!) and another like 74 yards. That is the definition of inconsistency.
I think you're right.
Sanzenbacher really is their best reciever, isn’t he?
"We just ran out of time." [sly smile] - Joe Paterno
by ReadingRambler on Oct 6, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Posey?
how’s he been doing? He was probably more talented, though his name isn’t nearly as cool as Sanzenbacher.
I really think...
Sanzenbacher and Hartline are clones of Gonzalez.
Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand.
by Esteban d' Amur on Oct 6, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
This falls into the category
of “should win.” The thing now is getting more consistent, especially in the redzone.
by Joe 96alum on Oct 6, 2010 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
STATS ARE FOR LOSERS
HARE RAMA
Elizabeth, with Vin Scully, only folks working longer than JoePA at same place!
by joefromboalsburg on Oct 6, 2010 8:19 PM EDT reply actions
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