Ohio State Buckeyes By The Numbers

 

Penn State

Value (Nat'l Rank)

Value (Nat'l Rank)

Ohio State

Advantage

Rushing Offense (ypg) 149.6 (68) 84.0 (4) Rushing Defense (ypg) Ohiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_medium
Passing Offense (ypg) 219.9 (61) 150.2 (3) Passing Defense (ypg) Ohiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_medium
Pass Efficiency 125.9 (75) 95.0 (3) Pass Efficiency Defense Ohiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_medium
Total Offense (ypg) 369.4 (68) 234.2 (3) Total Defense (ypg) Ohiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_medium
Scoring Offense (ppg) 24.2 (82) 13.6 (3) Scoring Defense (ppg) Ohiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_medium
Rushing Defense (ypg) 156.4 (68) 211.8 (19) Rushing Offense (ypg) Ohiostate_logo_medium
Passing Defense (ypg) 189.6 (26) 244.0 (42) Passing Offense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency Defense 130.1 (77) 164.3 (5) Pass Efficiency Ohiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_medium
Total Defense (ypg) 346.0 (45) 455.8 (17) Total Offense (ypg) Ohiostate_logo_medium
Scoring Defense (ppg) 20.1 (28) 42.0 (7) Scoring Offense (ppg) Push
Net Punting Yds 39.1 (17) 9.8 (38) Punt Return Yds Push
Punt Return Yds 7.4 (71) 32.9 (108) Net Punting Yds Psulogo_medium
Kickoff Return Yds 24.5 (19) 22.5 (84) Kickoff Return Defense Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Kickoff Return Defense 19.7 (22) 25.8 (10) Kickoff Return Yds Push
Turnover Margin -0.22 (67) 1.44 (1) Turnover Margin Ohiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_medium
Penalty Yds/Game 27.8 (2) 38.8 (13) Penalty Yds/Game Push
Sacks 1.44 (91) 2.11 (77) Sacks Allowed Push
Sacks Allowed 1.00 (T-15) 1.78 (T-75) Sacks Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Redzone Offense (%) 0.79 (T-78) 0.74 (T-20) Redzone Defense (%) Ohiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_medium
Redzone Defense (%) 0.91 (T-109) 0.88 (T-24) Redzone Offense (%) Ohiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_medium
Redzone TD % 0.52 0.53 Redzone TD % Defense Ohiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_medium
Redzone TD % Defense 0.70 0.67 Redzone TD % Ohiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_medium
3rd Down Conv. % 42.5 (43) 29.2 (4) 3rd Down Defense % Ohiostate_logo_medium
3rd Down Defense % 30.1 (7) 44.3 (36) 3rd Down Conv. % Psulogo_medium
1st Downs Per Game 19.3 (69) 12.7 (2) 1st Downs Allowed PG Ohiostate_logo_mediumOhiostate_logo_medium
1st Downs Allowed PG 17.6 (T-27) 23.2 (19) 1st Downs Per Game Push

 

Legend

Difference <25 in National Rank = Push

Difference >25 in National Rank =   Psulogo_medium

Difference >50 in National Rank =   Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference >75 in National Rank =   Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference >100 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgement.

More analysis after the jump.     

Hoo-boy that's a fun chart to look at, no? Now we see why the Buckeyes are favored by over two touchdowns.

The Buckeyes are obviously playing at a very high level this year. Winning this game on the road is going to take a superb effort by the Nittany Lions. So here is the part where I try to put a positive spin on it. Let's start out by looking at Ohio State's schedule so far.

Opponent

Opponent
Record

Total Offense
Rank

Total Defense
Rank

Result

Marshall

3-6

103

79

W 45-7

Miami (FL)

6-3

37

14

W 36-24

Ohio

7-3

82

32

W 43-7

East. Michigan

1-8

90

111

W 73-20

@ Illinois

5-4

71

43

W 24-13

Indiana

4-5

50

76

W 38-10

@ Wisconsin

8-1

44

22

L 18-31

Purdue

4-5

104

56

W 49-0

@ Minnesota

1-9

72

86

W 52-10

I'm sure some Buckeye fan will set me straight and tell me Ohio will probably win the MAC this year, but I only see two worthy opponents on this schedule. Wisconsin smashed them in a game that wasn't really as close as the score indicates. The Buckeyes were thoroughly outclassed in that game. Give them credit for beating Miami who is a very good team, but Ohio State was the benefactor of Jacory Harris throwing four interceptions that led to some easy scores. When Harris wasn't throwing at guys in scarlett jerseys, the Hurricanes were moving up and down the field quite well.

Other than these two opponents and maybe Illinois who gave them all they could handle right up until the end, Ohio State's schedule is garbage. Their stats are pretty inflated by playing some pretty crappy teams. But give them credit for taking care of business.

That being said, I'm not sure I would put Penn State on the same level with Wisconsin or Miami. I'm still not completely sold on the offensive line and, frankly, I'm not sleeping well trying to imagine our defensive ends trying to contain Terrelle Pryor inside the pocket. Pryor is second on the team in rushing yards with 463. Penn State has to hold him below his season average of 51 yards per game. This will be essential since I have noticed that Ohio State loves to run Pryor on quarterback draws when they need 5-7 yards on third down. If Sean Stanley and Pete Massaro keep running themselves out of the play on their outside pass rush, look out.

But one of the things I see in putting these charts together that doesn't really come out in the final product is how well Penn State has improved in the past few weeks. Each week I take the chart from the previous week and cut and paste it into a new post to start with. Then I start replacing all of the numbers from last week with the new number from this week. In doing so I've been able to see steady improvement each week. In a sense I believe this is a different team from the one we saw getting embarrassed in Tuscaloosa and against Illinois.

Though I see a lot of red on that chart above, but then I remember seeing a lot of maize on a chart a few weeks ago. And last week's chart had quite a bit of purple. I see a little blue, and I see a lot of push on the chart above. I can see this game being a blowout for Ohio State, but I can also see it being pretty close.

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