Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgement.
More analysis after the jump.
There's not a lot of color on that chart which would lead us to believe these teams are pretty evenly matched. But here again we have to look at the story behind the numbers. Indiana has played four absolutely horrible teams out of conference that have a combined record of 7-33. Arkansas State is the best of them with a 4-6 record, and the Hoosiers beat them by two points.
In Big Ten play, the Hoosiers are sporting the big goose egg with an 0-6 record. In fairness, they could easily be 3-3 right now as their losses to Michigan, Northwestern, and Iowa were very close. However, their losses to Illinois, Ohio State, and Wisconsin were not.
If you look at the numbers above for Penn State's offense against Indiana's defense, most of those numbers are very close to tipping into the PSU column. So I think it's safe to say Penn State should have a slight advantage here. Especially after playing the Buckeyes last week. Indiana defenders should look like they are running in slow motion to our offensive line and Matt McGloin.
Teams that have success against Penn State on offense do so by running the ball. Indiana is not going to be able to do this. Not only do they not have the players to run on Penn State, they only attempt to run the ball 41% of the time by nature. Look for Penn State to play a lot of nickel defense as Indiana likes to spread you out and they won't do a lot of running. Damarlo Belcher, Tandon Doss, and Terrance Turner are three wideouts that can burn you, and Ben Chappell is a very capable quarterback with a 19/8 TD to INT ratio and 2700 yards passing on the year.
Penn State should have an advantage on special teams this week as Anthony Fera has been doing very well with his punts and Indiana has not. The Hoosiers are also not great at covering kickoffs. Kick returns is an area where Penn State has struggled in recent weeks, so it will be interesting to see if they can get that going again here.
Though the chart looks pretty even, Penn State should have the talent advantage to go with the home field advantage of playing in Maryland. This should be a game Penn State wins.