Penn State vs. Ohio State - drive charts

Same drill as weeks past! No videos this time around, but jtothep and I will definitely coordinate again sometime soon.

(Our stats against Northwestern are in parentheses)

(1) Average pass attempt length --- 11.7 yards (11.4). Our highest number of the season. I'm a little surprised actually. From the comments on the broadcast, I would have guessed we were "taking what the defense gave us". Ah-hah, I just found the key as I sorted the data differently to create a different perspective. We completed 1 of our 10 longest passes. Anything longer than 15 yards in the air, we were 1 for 10.

(2) Average completion length --- 6.9  yards (6.4). Not all that different from our season average. When you drop out all the long bombs that were incomplete, the passes we actually converted were right within expectation.

 (3) Average YAC per completion --- 4.0 yards (6.3). The 4.0 is good when it's a grade point average, but not good when it's a yards after catch measurement. If you adjust by removing goal line plays and pass interference calls, you get 4.5 yards. Still pretty unsatisfying.

(4) Percent thrown to the side of the field (conservative) --- 71% (71). Identical to last week. Interesting. I'm not convinced this is a meaningful metric, especially when our two interceptions came from throws to the "side". I'd like to hear the audience's thoughts on whether or not this is worth tracking.

(5) Completion % for attempts under 10 yards --- 58% (73). Yikes. What a tale of two halves. McGloin was tearing them apart in the first half, taking the underneath stuff when it was available.

(6) Completion % for attempts 10 yards and over --- 33% (36). Hopefully no one blew their wad on a betting scheme this week. We're significantly under 40% for the first time all year. As I mentioned above, we completed one pass over 15 yards. The passes that boost this category were 10, 11, 11, 15, and 19 yards. The passes that diminish this category were 40, 37, 31, 26, 26, 25, 24, 17, 17, and 11 yards. Not a very favorable spread.

(7) Yards per playaction pass attempt --- 5.0 yards (6.6).

(8) Yards per standard pass attempt ---  5.5 yards (6.4). Well, we're balanced. The only game with worse numbers was Iowa, and I guess that makes sense since Iowa had similar defensive prowess to Ohio State.

(9) Yards per shotgun pass attempt – 1.4 yards (1.0). McGloin really spends a small percentage of time in the shotgun. Interestingly, he was 1 for 7 from the gun, which is pretty poor. In his defense, 5 of those were 3rd downs in excess of 6 yards, so what can you expect.

(10) Yards per under center pass attempt – 6.4 yards (7.9). Interestingly, McGloin only had 5 of  27 attempts from under center that came on 3rd down. He seems to work out of the shotgun on more obvious passing downs, which I suppose makes sense.

(11) Overall rushing playcall % - 48% (52). Pretty balanced.

(12) Rush % in own half of field - 42% (46).

(13) Rush % in opposing half of field - 60% (61). I still don't get this constant flip flop that we observe. I suppose once you get into the opposing half of the field you think you've got points locked up in a field goal, and you don't want to risk that. At the same time, turnovers are less costly, so you should be taking more risks.

(14) Average rush yards outside tackles – 4.5 yards (7.6).

(15) Average rush yards inside tackles – 3.2 yards (7.0). Our problems really started and ended with the lack of a consistent running game. We only had 6 runs that went for more than 5 yards. You just aren't going to get the respect of a defense when you have little threat of a breaking a big play. It's no surprise we couldn't dominate the line like we did against Michigan and Northwestern, and I suppose all things considered, we should have expected a similar performance to Iowa.

(16) Percent of RB iso's - 15% (20). I admire the staff for trying to mix it up a bit and running fewer up the gut plays. They were in a tough spot when the line wasn't getting any push and Ohio State was covering our receivers aggressively.

Commentary:

I want to convince you that going for it on 4th and 1 at the 20 towards the end of the first half had nothing to do with our eventual demise. Rather, the causes were a Mauti-less Penn State defense, fabulous adjustments by the Ohio State coaching staff, and a quarterback that wasn't able to read a defense and go through a progression.

First, the summary of events. We miss the 4th and 1. Ohio State proceeds to punt the ball back to us after an uneventful drive of their own. We are at our own 20 and elect to let the clock run out. We get the ball after the half. We actually put together a decent drive coming out of the locker room, moving the ball 32 yards and pinning them deep within their 2. Now HERE is where our problems began.

Did Ohio State go 98 yards because we couldn't convert on 4th and 1 an hour earlier? No. They went 98 yards because our under staffed defense missing its star player couldn't put a stop together. The same way Northwestern jumped out on us because they were excited and executed well, but we ultimately outlasted them, so did the superior lines of Ohio State.

Now, after this touchdown is when our real problems started. You could instantly sense the coaching staff was going to go into a shell. We had a lead that the staffed sensed was about to evaporate and we went for the classic "play conservative and hope the other team doesn't come back" strategy.

We came out and went RUN, RUN on our first two plays. It would have been RUN, RUN, PASS if Royster hadn't gotten injured and allowed Redd to come in. If Royster is in on our 2nd down play, he is stopped in the backfield and can't bounce it out the way Redd can. So, it would have gone RUN, RUN, conservative PASS, and hopefully we would have punted it away. Instead, Redd converts and Ohio State properly exploits our young quarterback two plays later.

Now normally I curse the coaching staff in my head when I see this is happening. Except this time, I'm not sure what I would have wanted them to do. Our O-line was no longer getting a push. There just weren't holes to allow us to build a credible run threat. The Ohio State defense was wising up to McGloin's tendencies to lock onto one receiver immediately after the snap. On the first interception, McGloin comes out of a playaction fake and chucks it out wide without a moment of forethought. This was working all the first half when Ohio State was dropping back into soft coverage. You can't blame him (well maybe you can, but I won't).

On the next drive, we went RUN, RUN, PASS. We got minus two yards and set up an obvious passing situation. On the ensuing play, McGloin just chucks up a pass instantly after taking the snap. It was really amusing to watch (multiple times). He takes the snap, and with absolutely no consideration for any other receiver on the field, hurls it to Devon Smith. Devon is almost perfectly covered, but McGloin does magically thread the needle into the small window Devon has created. However, as luck would have it, he can't bring it in.

On the next drive, we start at our 2 yard line, and I can't blame the staff for taking it easy after recently throwing a pick and being gunshy. It goes RUN, RUN, dropped PASS and we're punting.

After Ohio State gets that lucky bounce on the TP arm punt, we again go RUN, RUN, pass. Ohio State puts together some confusing defensive scheme that Herbstreit spent some time applauding, so I'm down with that.

I actually blame Ohio State for coming out in a very Penn-State-like mentality. Being a considerable favorite at home, playing bend but don't suck defense. However, against an unsophisticated quarterback, you have to take away the simple stuff by playing aggressive coverage, and force him to make you pay. They should have been doing this all along, and really our first 14 points were a gift from very ill-advised coaching. I imagine from an Ohio State perspective, this game was like the way we felt playing against the Temples of the world. We come out too conservative, and then make fabulous half time adjustments, and the better team ultimately comes back to win (in less than satisfying fasion).

You might remember after the Michigan game, I noted how everything had gone our way and we shouldn't be surprised if we caught some bad bounces in the future. Well, I didn't think the term "bad bounces" would be used so literally, but we had our fair share in this game. Interception that was bobbled four times before being caught, dropped pass by Devon on a crucial 3rd down, ridiculous deflection off the TP arm punt, Moye/Zug dropping slants that were materializing against Michigan, and Mauti getting injured.

The better team won, but we had some exciting moments that show a lot of promise for the future. Once our depth is a little stronger next year, and our line(s) can put together a full 60 minutes, I think we'll be able to hang with the elite teams we play. Overall, I'm very encouraged by this performance, and I think we'll learn alot about the team (specifically McGloin) seeing how they respond to this setback as things were starting to turn around.

Data:

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