Big Ten Preview: Sayonara Shared Championships
by spakajewia on Nov 4, 2010 1:01 PM EDT
in B1G / BigTen
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PrintHalfway through the Big Ten season, it's already pretty clear that the Big Ten championship will likely be shared again this year. With Wisconsin's exclusively playing teams with a .500 record or worse in the remainding schedule, and the fact that someone has to win the game between Ohio State and Iowa, it's hard to reasonably predict a scenario in which at least two teams aren't tied at the top again this year.
A lot of digital ink has been spilled decrying the inanity of the current Big Ten championship, in which two teams are "co-champions" if they have the same record, even if one beat the other in the regular season. Somehow it's fitting that in the last year in which such a sham co-championship is possible, given the introduction of a conference championship game next year, we'll likely get one.
Arguably the best part of college football is the tradition: the mascots, the marching bands, the tailgating, the rivalries. It's a uniquely American sport and culture unto itself. Most other universities in the world don't offer athletic scholarships or have anything above what we call club sports, much less anything like Purdue's World's Largest Drum or the 120 games between Minnesota and Wisconsin dating back to 1890. Given the tradition of college football, I tend to be somewhat agnostic about the introduction of a playoff system. While I'd love to watch the matchups if we ever get one, I'd hate to lose aspects of the bowl tradition and diminish the preeminence of the regular season.
Nevertheless, some traditions are stupid and should be abolished as soon as possible, like the Big Ten's sham co-championship. Good riddance: you won't be missed.
Onto the games and the gambling:
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Wolverines (12:00, ESPN)
43 and sunny; Michigan -3; o/u 57
Occasionally Vegas puts out a line that makes little or no sense. Case in point: Michigan, a team that clearly has little to no ability to stop even a mediocre Big Ten offense, is favored by three this Saturday against a surging Illinois team that's won its last two conference games by an average of 32 points. The winner of this one becomes bowl eligible, and given the context in Ann Arbor, this is a huge game for Rich Rodriguez. Nevertheless, there's absolutely no reason to expect Denard Robinson and company to be able to so fully dominate a resolute Illini defense that they're able to overwhelm the points the Wolverine d is certain to give up to Nathan Scheelhaase and company. Some people call games like this "traps," because they assume that the line is "too good to be true." I don't buy the theory of trap games. Take Illinois on the money line (+135).
Prediction: Illinois 44 - Michigan 28
Iowa Hawkeyes at Indiana Hoosiers (12:00, Big Ten Network)
50 and sunny; Iowa -17; o/u 54
A 4-4 Indiana team hosts Ricky Stanzi and friends after Iowa annihilated Michigan State last week. Despite a statistically strong year for fifth year senior quarterback Ben Chappell, Indiana is 0-4 in the Big Ten so far. I'd like to make some argument about how this could be a letdown game from Iowa, who might still be hungover from their domination of Sparty last week. But realistically, I just don't see it. Look for this game to more closely resemble the last time these two played in Bloomington when Iowa won 45-9 than last year's contest in which the Hoosiers jumped out to a 21-7 lead before Stanzi and the offense scored 28 straight.
Prediction: Iowa 36 - Indiana 13
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan St Spartans (12:00, Big Ten Network)
42 and sunny; MSU -24.5; o/u 57
The 1-8 Golden Gophers travel to Spartan Stadium to take on 8-1 Michigan St. We should learn a lot about the makeup of this Michigan St team this week. After getting destroyed in Kinnick Stadium last week, Sparty's got a chance to feel good again by beating up on the worst team in the conference. As bad as Minnesota is, they are still capable of staying with MSU, particularly if the Spartans overlook them and are still pouting from last weekend's loss. In years past, an epic Sparty FAIL would have been imagined, maybe even predicted, in a game like this. But for some reason I think Dantonio has helped the program turn a corner. Adam Weber throws for an early score to go up 7-0, but Michigan State roars back.
Prediction: Michigan St. 33 - Minnesota 10
Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers (12:00, Big Ten Network)
50 and sunny; WIS -20; o/u 51
You'd like to think that 4-4 Purdue could give the Badgers a game, but I don't see it happening. At all. Purdue's been outscore 93-10 in their last two games and their starting quarterback (who was 3rd string preseason) Rob Henry is only probable do to a nasty cut on the finger of his throwing hand. Combine that with the other major injuries the Boilermakers are facing as well as a refreshed Wisconsin coming off their win at Iowa and a week off, and this one should be ugly.
Prediction: Wisconsin 38 - Purdue 9
Northwestern Wildcats at Penn State Nittany Lions (3:30, ABC/ESPN2)
43 and rain; PSU -6; o/u 48.5
See BSD tomorrow for the staff picks.
Bye: Ohio State
Last week: 3-2 Against the Spread; 3-2 W/L; Overall: 11-14 ATS; 18-7 W/L
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Sweet!
I hope we see some Iowans drop in to comment on that drum.
The offensive line was inspired by McGloin.
That drum is made from the skin of the Native Americans or babies or something Our Most Hated Rival Purdue massacred.
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 4, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Sweet, we've reeled one!
Yeah, I listened to about three in a row the other day, so I couldn’t remember if it was that or the Reamer Club created it or what?
The offensive line was inspired by McGloin.
Somehow I just never thought of that drum
as an archetypal symbol of American collegiate athletics.
I’ll study on it a spell.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
i guess i never did either
until i wrote it.
but i think it is. or at least an archetypal symbol of college football culture. what’s really interesting about it isn’t the drum itself, its likely that someone at one time thought: what can we at purdue do to increase the profile of our marching band?
I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.
they also just like having worlds biggest things
they also boast the worlds largest college mascot (the train: their official mascot)
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 4, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
PSU is #43 in the Sagarin rankings, Northwestern is #70. PSU is at home. I’m sorta surprised it’s only 7.
I have all the respect in the world for coach Fitz and the Northwestern program, but this is a very much rebuilding Northwestern team playing on the road against a team that (1) outranks them in the computers, and (2) would be by far their best win of the season (which is currently Vandy @ #97)
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
Sure
Persa’s good. Statistically, they’re better, even if it came against the #117 schedule in D1. If PSU can’t establish the run and whichever QB has 2+ turnovers, this game could end up very close.
Right now, I feel like if this game is played 10 times, PSU loses once.
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
I have no respect for Coach Pat Fitzgerald - I prefer the attorney Pat Fitzgerald to that other guy - or the jNW program and they will lose by 80 because they suck.
The only way jNW will win involves their grotesquely fat defensive end maiming our quarterbacks and celebrating by shooting into the crowd with a German assault rifle – jNW is too snobbish to use American or Russian assault rifles.
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 4, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
The only way Northwestern wins,
is if the entire Penn State team gets distracted by the awesomeness of Pat Fitzgerald awesomely strutting the sideline in his awesome glory.
Dear team, thanks for accomplishing nothing.
by Illegal Formation on Nov 4, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
So...
…it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that PSU will lose? Fitz is irresistably and distractingly awesome and glorious.
Hey, what's up NW fan
For the record, this PSU fan doesn’t hate on NW like our Iowan brethren. And I’m actually a fan of Pat Fitzgerald (until proven otherwise with links of his un-awesomeness). I liked him as a player.
What can you tell us about your defensive line?
The offensive line was inspired by McGloin.
Northwestern's DL
I’d give us a B to B+ grade on the DL. We’re certainly not in the same league as OSU or Iowa (then again, very few teams are)….but Bryant and DiNardo at DL do a good job getting penetration/stuffing the run (and Arnfelt, Mafuli, and freshman Will Hampton all have done admirable work adding depth here), and Vincent Browne is frankly a beast at DE — you gotta keep track of him at all times. Browne probably had a better year last year than Corey Wootton, who was drafted by the Bears in the 4th round. On the other DE spot, Kevin Watt and Quentin Williams split time, and both have made some big plays, but aren’t nearly as good as Browne. Overall, it’s a unit that will get pressure (albeit maybe not too many sacks), and plays its assignments well, which allows NU lately to be effective against the run (largely because the gap assignment discipline allows NU’s LBs to swarm to stop ball carriers). We’ll give up running yards occasionally in 5-7 yard bunches, but we also rack up a fair share of tackles for loss that can put your offense in 2nd or 3rd and long positions.
On thing to keep in mind is that NU likes to occasionally feign a pass rush and drop their DEs/DLs into passing lanes to force INTs while blitzing with LBs (and our LBs are the strength of the NU defense)…..this is particularly effective against inexperienced QBs who aren’t expecting that look (I seem to recall a Stanzi ball or two the past 2 years that come on plays like that).
To give you an idea....
….our DL effectively shut down MSU’s running attack. We got pressure on Cousins (a lot of his plays were made scrambling/looking for receivers), but not enough sacks/deflected passes, which meant Cousins eventually torched us through the air (although some of this was due to some questionable play-calling as we stopped bringing as much pressure, and the fact our DBs played too far off their receivers all day)
Your DL sounds very good, but maybe the right matchup for us.
Our offensive line has been lacking in the run game for most of the year, but it has shown the ability to pass protect relatively well. The thing that works in our favor in the run game is that our backs rarely take a loss. Our problem has been in creating rushing yards in 5-7 yard bunches. When we get good blocking, we’ve busted off 10-20 yard gains. We we don’t, Royster gets stopped for no gain or, at most, 1 yard. His biggest strength as a back has always been avoiding lost yardage.
Your best bet is for your DL to hold Royster on 1st and 2nd down for virtually no gain and keep us behind the sticks. Bringing pressure and forcing Bolden to pass will force a freshman into mistakes.
"I don’t spend a lot of time dwelling on the negative. I believe that having a good, peaceful mind is the basic premise for a good life."
No doubt...
…the Northwestern DL vs. PSU O-line is a key battle in this game. I think if Northwestern stops/limits Royster, it bodes well for their chances in this game.
Here’s my question — what’s PSU’s pass defense like? Specifically the D-line in terms of putting pressure on the QB, and the secondary in coverage? It seems to me the only way to stop/hinder Northwestern is by getting pressure with your D-line only while tying up Northwestern’s receivers, in the hopes that you sack Persa (who occasionally holds the ball too long). You can’t really drop too many guys in coverage/play solely nickle or dime packages/blitz linebackers, though, because Persa is a VERY adept scrambler with the ball (he’s NU’s leading rusher even WITH sacks thrown in; he ran for 99 yards against Minny).
The NU passing attack vs. PSU pass defense is something I’ll be keeping an eye on in particular….if Persa gets on track (and, in particular, if he hits some big 20+ yard completions to Dunsmore and/or any of the freshmen trio of receivers — Mark/Lawrence/Jones), it could be a long day for PSU….
The defensive line does not get pressure.
It took them until late in the second half to sack Adam Weber, Richard Stanzi, and Greg McElroy, and they didn’t sack Denard Robinson or Nate Scheeeeeelhaaaase once.
On a good day, Penn State’s secondary plays really good coverage. On a bad day, really, more like play, they give up 60 yard touchdowns to tight ends. You’ll just have to be patient and will probably take the underneath stuff because your wide receivers aren’t on the level of Alabama or Iowa and you don’t run the pro style-ish passing game built to attack Penn State anyway.
Penn State will sit back in a cover 3 for the entire game and keep everything in front of them. This did not work at all against Illinois because our linebackers were nonexistant. They are mostly healthy now and so I expect NW to pass effectively but not devastatingly effectively.
Penn State should score enough points to win as I feel the defense will only give up between 17 and 24 points.
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 4, 2010 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, you will not run the ball.
Someone said your best tailback now is some guy named Trumpy. That is the name of a character from a bad movie featured on Mystery Science Theater 3000. Anyway, as far as I can tell, NW’s run game is entirely Persa-based, and I don’t think Persa is close to Robinson’s level and I don’t think NW’s offensive line is close to Michigan’s level. Also, our defensive tackles are outstanding and the ends are coming around.
NW will have to go Drew Brees at Purdue style passing to even stay close. Drew Brees never beat us. SWAGGER.
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 4, 2010 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate on them because NW decided under Gary Barnett - who is a little bit of a clown in my book - to turn mutual respect into jealousy.
Fitz hates Iowa because “they” also broke his leg and he couldn’t play in the Rose Bowl. Weak sauce.
I liked them better under Walker.
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 4, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a foregone conclusion,
because Penn State has players who are awesome and glorious as well.
Take Danton Lynn, who is a real smooth operator. I predict he will have a pick-6 against Northwestern, in a smoking jacket, then pour himself a single-malt scotch upon reaching the endzone.
Dear team, thanks for accomplishing nothing.
by Illegal Formation on Nov 4, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
He'll pour two
and give the other to Joe.
Everything looks more important when written in gray italics.
by skarocksoi on Nov 4, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A pick-6...
…would be pretty impressive, given that Persa doesn’t throw a heck of a lot of INTs.
Yes, most definitely Fitz,
Was that a reply fail?
My mantra worked.
by Paige2PSU on Nov 4, 2010 9:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That ILL/MICH line is insane
So we get killed by Illinois, then we beat up on Michigan, and somehow Michigan is favored?
good lord, where is my bookie
tough sked actually
I like Temple -3
oregon state -5
bama -6.5
raiders -2.5
had a good week last week
This was hard for me to read...
Nevertheless, there’s absolutely no reason to expect Denard Robinson and company to be able to so fully dominate a resolute Illini defense that they’re able to overwhelm the points the Wolverine d is certain to give up to Nathan Scheelhaase and company.
but I think I get it. ;-)
2010 PSU Football......"It can maybe snowball into something that can catch fire..."
and company
good writing is clear and concise. that sentence is neither
I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.
Huh, I always assumed your BSD name
was a bastardization of the name of the Native American woman who accompanied Lewis & Clark.
Am I supposed to believe now that you aren’t responsible for the PSA Crying Indian?.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4ozVMxzNAA
.
Oh, we got both kinds. We got country AND western
it is a bastardization of sacagewea
or rather a combination of it and my last name.
I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.
Everyone will score every time they touch the ball this year and when Greg Robinson is fired after the season Michigan will hire a Tecmo Super Bowl cartridge to run their defense.
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
Are you kidding me?
I gave up less that 15 points a game in Tecmo Super Bowl. Trick was to use the Chiefs. Control the ball with Barry Word and Christian Okoye. Kill everything that moved with Derrick Thomas. Keep late career Joe Montana around just in case.
I actually have system that still plays an old copy of Tecmo Super Bowl.
Don't get me started on the lunacy of hiring the guy whose team lost to 4-7 Pitt, at home, with arguably the best team in school history, to beat Ohio State. If Pryor goes anywhere but Michigan, the Rich Rodriguez era at Michigan could be turbulent to say the least. January 16, 2008.
I have to call you out.
Joe Montana was still on the 49ers in Tecmo Super Bowl.
by VVeRPennState on Nov 4, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Not on the Sega Genesis version he wasn't.
Don't get me started on the lunacy of hiring the guy whose team lost to 4-7 Pitt, at home, with arguably the best team in school history, to beat Ohio State. If Pryor goes anywhere but Michigan, the Rich Rodriguez era at Michigan could be turbulent to say the least. January 16, 2008.
Try this, it doesn't suck
http://virtualnes.com/play/?id=NES-4U&s=10
A is the X key
B is the Z key
Start is Enter
Select is Control
John has a long moustache
While McGloin’s basically been handed scads of yardage by Michigan, he deserves some props here: his ridiculous back foot just having fun Wrangler Favre throw that should be easily intercepted is a fairly well thrown touchdown. FML.
And there you have it.
McGloin Despite Them
Preaching the McGospel since Aug. 2nd, 2010
After reading that I just want to go back and read
What was said about the hiring of Greg Robinson. The whole country is laughing at them and they’re like “what? he coached in the NFL. He was great at Texas. Some guys just aren’t cut out as HC.” (more laughing) “he’s going to run a 3-3-5, it’s a stack, it will be awesome” (hysterical laughing) “no seriously, 3-3-5 is going to work in the B10. 5 DB’s will be effective at stopping the power run game” (rolling on the floor laughing)
I just wish Michigan blogs had a sense of how obvious it was to everyone else that this was going to be a disaster.
McGloin Despite Them
Preaching the McGospel since Aug. 2nd, 2010
MSU Upset Alert
After a bad road loss, they return home for a noon game to play a team they should handle by half time. I’ve seen this before, because we’ve played it several times (2008 Indiana), only MSU’s completely out of mojo and Minny is playing with nothing to lose.
Remember MSU is a few trick plays away from being 6-3, and they just got exposed by the first half-decent team they’ve played….
Minny 24, MSU 20
McGloin Despite Them
Preaching the McGospel since Aug. 2nd, 2010
You know you just predicted Minnesota to win a game, right?
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 4, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Minnesota will win this game
Goldy has been pretty meh for the past several years, but they manage to own Sparty on a regular basis.
Save BSD
Question:
Several years from now, if a 10-2 Penn State team were to play a 1-11 Michigan team that just fired their head coach, would you expect Penn State to lose because Michigan managed to own us every now and then?
I sincerely don’t mean to be rude, but Minnesota goes far, far beyond “meh”. Michigan State is 8-1, Minnesota’s record is BLOOD DEATH 1-8 oh the humanity. The game is in Spartan Stadium. Minnesota wouldn’t just need to win the game, they would need the ghosts of all incompetent Spartans, from Nabis to John L. Smith, to haunt MSU. Mark Dantonio would have to be transformed by days spent locked in a dungeon, being brainwashed and tormented by dreams of precious, innocent timeouts being murdered by crazy Italian men from Brooklyn and boring gum-chewers from Iowa. “Timeouts” Dantonio would come out of the dungeon with the name “Timmy Dantonio”. He would open up a Twitter feed and type the word “tremendous” a lot, Iowa fans would tear down his goalposts, and he would slap himself. In the nuts. Plaxico Burress would have to shoot Kirk Cousins by accident. Juggalos would have to descend from Ann Arbor upon East Lansing, distracting the MSU players. Also distracting the MSU players would be hookers, coke, real Coke, and the temptation of glorious crime sprees and even more glorious assault charges – all very tempting indeed. Finally, the government would have to incur a “Being Michigan State” tax on Michigan State. Michigan State would pay the tax by telling whatever remains of the team to throw the game so MSU could get money from bookies.
What I have just listed is barely an exaggeration, both in the Block O Nation OSU fan sense and in the real sense.
Michigan State is good, Minnesota is very bad. I don’t think Minnesota will win.
I hope I am wrong. Seriously, I really hope I’m wrong.
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 4, 2010 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What is a Juggalo?
My mantra worked.
by Paige2PSU on Nov 4, 2010 9:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I really don’t know. But MGOBLOG claimed Michigan State fans are Juggalos or something last month. It sounded bad, so I couldn’t resist the temptation.
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 4, 2010 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Here is what the Urban Dictionary had to say:
For the most part, an uneducated, pathetic excuse for a human being who listens to the group ICP who are bold enough to actually consider themselves musicians. People you see wearing “hatchet-man” accesories. They should not be allowed to reproduce, because that is too cruel to future generations. ICP isn’t rap, it isn’t metal, it isn’t rap/metal, and it isn’t horrorpop. There is only one way to properly categorize ICP; unnecessarily and unartfully offensive and obnoxious noise.
I guess I’d know this stuff if I listened to something more than bluegrass, random bits of Irish folk music, and outlaw country from the 1970s.
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 4, 2010 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
who cares about any crime sprees or assault charges?
we all know the MSU players would be back on the field in time to play anyway
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 4, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm just trying to stay positive hah
But I do know that Minnesota has shown that they can play well at times this year. They played well against USC, NW and Penn State, and for spurts against OSU this past week. Basically it wouldn’t surprise me to see them put it all together for one game and shock someone.
Save BSD
I basically wrote all of that just for the part where Dantonio dreams about timeouts being murdered.
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 4, 2010 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
That's the deditcation...
I have come to expect from Rambler!
"I have my Joe Paterno autograph already, but I don’t know that I’d begrudge anybody else from getting theirs no matter their age. That’s kind of like meeting Winston Churchill." jesse. @ BSD
I have a rule that says
Never pick a team to win if you can’t say anything good about them but can only say a few or maybe even a lot of bad things about the other team.
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 4, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
How about this
They have a good passing attack with a veteran QB who’s playing better than their record indicates. And their new coach has nipples that could be used to cut stone.
McGloin Despite Them
Preaching the McGospel since Aug. 2nd, 2010
Minnesota is a decent team
Every week one part of their team plays well, but they can’t get everything working at the same time. They should have beaten NW, and probably Purdue this year… they won’t go 0-8 in the B10
Save BSD
hehe
this is almost as funny as those Texas AsianReplicaUSA statues
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 4, 2010 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I have a rule too...
Minnesota sucks. Don’t bet on them.
Don't get me started on the lunacy of hiring the guy whose team lost to 4-7 Pitt, at home, with arguably the best team in school history, to beat Ohio State. If Pryor goes anywhere but Michigan, the Rich Rodriguez era at Michigan could be turbulent to say the least. January 16, 2008.
by jesse. on Nov 4, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I like Minnesota to cover the spread
This game features a team (MSU) that only scored 34 on Michigan favored by 24.5 against a team (Minnesota) that has only scored less than 21 twice (against Purdue and Ohio State, both due to severe red zone mishaps, not because they didn’t have every opportunity). I like Minny to cover, but picking Minny to win….not if I actually have money on it.
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
me too
I actually thought I’d take MSU to cover, but when I started to predict a score, I just couldn’t bring myself to do one in which they outscore Minny by more than 24. That’s a big number. And minnesota’s actually been quite good against the spread this year.
I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.
But Minnesota isn't half decent
They’re not even a little decent. They’re about as completely, totally, less than zero decent as you can get.
I think MSU starts slow, but piles it on in the 2nd half.
I’m wrong a lot though, and if Minnie did win, that would be a hell of a Sparty NOOOO moment.
It never gets to be easy
by chitownhawkeye on Nov 4, 2010 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree with PSU -6
But the over/under seems a bit too high. With the pending weather conditions I could see this being a lower scoring game. Somewhere along the lines of PSU: 27 NW: 14 which is a whole TD on the side of the under.
But yea, take PSU to cover the spread and the under. Parlay that with Oregon and the over…I have no clue who they are playing but it’s like Boise State a few years ago.
Now if Pur-don't can take care of Bucky.
My prayers will be answered. (How many chickens should I sacrifice?)
by Stay thirsty, my friends. on Nov 4, 2010 3:41 PM EDT reply actions
one for every communist coach or double agent player they've trotted out over the years
No word yet on whether this includes Gary Danielson.
The offensive line was inspired by McGloin.
Going crazy with the transitive property
PSU and NW have one common opponent: Minnesota. PSU won 33-21, Northwestern won 29-28.
Penn State is 11 points better than Northwestern relative to Minnesota.
NW and Michigan have two common opponents: MSU and Indiana
Michigan lost to MSU by 17, 34-17. Northwestern lost 35-28. NW+9
Michigan beat Indiana 42-35. Northwestern beat Indiana 20-17. NW+5
Therefore, NW is an average of 7 points better than Michigan.
Since PSU is 10 points better than Michigan, and Northwestern is 7 points better than Michigan, PSU is 3 points better than Northwestern relative to Michigan.
Comparing PSU and Indiana (who have 2 common opponents, Michigan and Illinois) PSU beat Michigan by 10, Indiana lost to Michigan by 7. PSU -17 = Indiana. PSU lost to Illinois by 20, Indiana lost by 30. PSU -10 = Indiana. Therefore, PSU is 13.5 points better than Indiana by way of Michigan and Illinois. Northwestern is 3 points better than Indiana, so Penn State is 10.5 points better than Northwestern by way of Indiana.
So on average, PSU is (11 + 3 + 10.5) / 3 =~8.1 points better than Northwestern, and playing at home. Take PSU to cover.
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
If you had watched those NU games....
I’m not a huge fan of transitive property in football, but if you’d watched those NU games…you’d realize:
1. NU had a 17 point lead on MSU, and MSU’s victory margin was inflated by a TD scored late (when NU essentially gave up the TD so as to get the ball back, down 8, with a chance to tie and send the game into OT). NU also had a fumble on the MSU 1-yard line early in the game.
2. Against Minny, NU turned the ball over three times total and twice when they had the ball in Minny’s red-zone and were about to score (costing them 6-14 points, arguably, not to mention the 14 points Minny scored off those turnovers), and missed an extra point.
3. Against Indiana, NU held a 10 point lead before allowing a last second, flukish TD (4th and 10 at NU’s 39 yard line, they pressured Chappell and he flushed the pocket, before finding a WR behind our safeties). Again, not nearly as close as it looked.
Again, I won’t dispute that PSU-NU is gonna be a great game – it clearly will be. But I do discount any analysis that downplays NU’s strength based solely on final scores in games without looking at those games in total.
That took 2 steps
Here it is was only 1 step.
Occam’s razor commonly is referred to as “the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.”
Hence, your answer is most likely wrong, as it is more complicated.
It never gets to be easy
by chitownhawkeye on Nov 4, 2010 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions
OMHR’s drum is NOT the biggest drum in the world. They are braggarts and liars of the first order. Also, re: Persa – the head hit he took last week (side note – Iowa has it’s own concussion trouble revealed late this week, but play Indiana in Bloomington – as opposed to Indiana at Snyder-world) would concern me were I a jNW fan, and were they playing Minnesota. I’m not a jNW fan, and they’re playing PSU in Happy Valley. Uh-oh.
In any event, in the Yahoo thingy I picked PSU to cover and am hoping your gentleman live up to my faith. But, I also picked Minnesota to cover, so obviously I know nothing.
Re: Snyder-World.
Don’t blame us. IU held that dollar out in front of us. Who were we to decline them?
"Iowa is like a flat Pennsylvania."
Beat Northwestern.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 4, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
$3 million for a home game when they average ~ $1 million in net profits per game?
It doesn’t take Tim Curley to give up a home game for a neutral site if you guarantee THREE TIMES the profit up front.
Indiana put a bunch of money into renovating their stadium
they need the cash. Ironically, no one gets to enjoy the improvements when your homes games aren’t at home
"Imma gonna make a couple 'a meatballs"
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