Penn State 2011 Recruiting - Quarterbacks
The other day we looked at how many scholarships Penn State should have to give in their next recruiting class. With 12 known scholarship players graduating after the 2010 season, I gave a preliminary estimate around 16-18 scholarships. This is a number that will likely fluctuate as time goes on and players leave the program prematurely for whatever reason. But we'll use it as our starting point in evaluating the needs of the team. Today we will start with the quarterbacks. Let's look at the projected 2010 scholarship quarterback roster. I differentiate between redshirt and true freshmen because I think there is a significant difference there. But I will not differentiate which sophomores, juniors, and seniors had a redshirt year. After a year or two in the program I don't think the difference is that significant.
|
Seniors |
Juniors |
Sophomores |
Redshirt Freshmen |
True |
| Brett Brackett | Kevin Newsome | Paul Jones | ||
| Matt McGloin | Robert Bolden |
Now some of you may be saying to yourself, "Brett Brackett quarterback wha?" Calm down, Casual Penn State Fan. Brackett is going to get a look at quarterback this spring. He played quarterback in high school and actually started his Penn State career at quarterback, so it's not exactly new territory for him. Personally, I think it's a good move. He probably won't compete for playing time, but he can be a great asset is summer drills and on the practice field to provide leadership and help the inexperienced guys learn the playbook and tricks of the trade.
When the coaches sit down and plan out their targets for the class they plan to sign in February 2011, they will want to look at what they project their needs will be in 2012. Hopefully, you don't need a kid to come in and play right away. Some positions like running back and defensive linemen lend themselves to seeing early playing time, but you are usually in trouble if you need a player to make an impact as a true freshman. So you plan on a kid taking a redshirt year to bulk up and learn the system so he can step on the field and contribute the following year.
So if you are looking at the chart above, kick out Brackett and move everyone two slots to the left. Jones and/or Bolden may move three slots to the left if they don't redshirt. I suspect Jones will play and Bolden will redshirt in 2010. Jones enrolled last month and will go through spring practice making him better prepared. Also, I think Bolden's skill set is closer to Newsome than Jones's is, so I anticipate the coaches will want to redshirt Bolden to create some separation between him and Newsome. But of course injuries can change everything so we really don't know, but let's assume either Jones or Bolden redshirt, but not both.
In 2012 Penn State should have two senior quarterbacks (Newsome and McGloin), one junior, and one sophomore. So ask yourself, will Penn State need another quarterback on the roster in 2012? In my opinion, the answer is yes. After 2012, there will be only two scholarship quarterbacks on the roster, Jones and Bolden. Frankly that frightens me. Nobody has seen what these guys can do yet, so what if they don't work out? One of them is not going to win the starting job in 2012. What if he goes the Pat Devlin route and transfers out of the program to play for two years someplace else. I think they need a contingency plan in case this happens, so I think Penn State will look to bring in one quarterback in this class.
I doubt they will find any four or five-star talent this year. The big name studs want to go to a program where they can play right away. Kids are going to look at this depth chart and pitch their Penn State offers in the trash. None of them will want to ride the bench for three years with the hope of getting one or two years as a starter. So I would look for Penn State to go after a solid three star kid. We can target the big boys, but you don't want to be sitting around on signing day watching them go to Florida, USC, and Notre Dame while you get nothing. We want the kid that has offers from some of the respectable MAC schools that grew up with Rashard Casey posters on his wall. Ask him if he would rather start three years at Central Michigan or one year at Penn State. To a lot of kids that's an attractive offer.
Before you start the "OMG Mike r u serius?" in the comments, I'm not saying Penn State shouldn't go after any five star quarterbacks. I'm not saying Penn State should "settle" for lesser talent. Go ahead and give the five star kids a phone call. Maybe there is some interest there and you can luck out. But be realistic about the situation. Johnny Five-Star most likely isn't going to like our depth chart. So don't put all your eggs in one basket like they did with Terrelle Pryor in 2007. If it comes down to Penn State and some other school where he can play right away, we are going to be standing there empty handed the day after signing day. I would rather see Penn State get a capable career backup player than strike out and get nothing.
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I agree with the non-targetting of 5* QBs, as the Jones/Bolden haul is unattractive to future QBs.
However, if you look deeper and make some not-far-fetched assumptions, some of these kids might be smart to come to PENN SHTATE.
None of them will want to ride the bench for three years with the hope of getting one or two years as a starter.
This is almost exactly what we’re asking both Jones and Bolden to do. I’ve gone over this before, but I’ll be brief: assume Newsome starts (and finishes) in 2010. One of the FR will redshirt, one will not. That only leaves one year of separation (and thus one year of playing time) for BOTH Jones and Bolden. Someone is going to A) change positions, or B) transfer. Thus, it might behoove a 5* QB in 2011 to take a look at PSU, as by the time he will have redshirted, he will have 2 years separation AT LEAST from Jones or Bolden.
"Have I ever told the story of when I met Miley Cyrus?"
I think you could say that one will transfer or change positions is far-fetched too
As PSU fans, we’re all looking at this like we just got out of a bad relationship and expect to get burned in the next one. Devlin transferred, but I don’t think we should make the assumption that one of the two incoming QB’s will. It certainly is a possibility that one will transfer or switch, but its just as possible that they both stay and wait for their opportunity.
Oh, I completely agree.
But I don’t think discussing the possibility of a transfer or position change is far fetched. All three of these guys (Newsome, Bolden, Jones) are highly rated, highly recruited QBs. And in the JoePa seniority system, it is not far-fetched to assume both that Newsome will start, and that he probably won’t leave early, giving him three years as starter. That only gives one year each to the other two, not exactly an enticing prospect for a freshman.
"Have I ever told the story of when I met Miley Cyrus?"
by Jeff Junstrom on Feb 8, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I just don’t think the staff should be planning for that to happen. Right now we have a limited number of ships and two young QB’s on board. I say use them on other positions for players who can be real difference makers, and not some guy who might end up being a career backup. If we can recruit an athlete who can play another position as well, I’d say go for that if we have the room.
It's a numbers game
Of course you don’t recruit kids that will be “career backups”. But you do need backups on the team. I don’t think anyone would be comfortable going into the 2012 season with just two scholarship quarterbacks on the roster. You are basically two twisted ankles away from disaster at that point. I think they need at least three quarterbacks on the roster at all times.
So then the question becomes getting the best kid you can get. Johnny Five-Star isn’t going to come to a school where he has to ride the pine for three years and wait his turn. So while taking a three star kid isn’t anyone’s first option, it’s not a bad one. Maybe you take a chance on a kid that other schools back off of. Maybe if you’re lucky you get a two star kid with some academic issues that turns out to be another Daryll Clark.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on Feb 8, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
I'd prefer we hold off a year and go for a better recruit in 2012
By then you would hopefully still have Bolden/Jones going into 2012 with 1 year separation and your incoming freshman which would hopefully be a starter down the line. That would give you 3 potential starters, all with 1 year separating them. Really the best scenario would be to get a preferred walk-on QB this class, then target the top rated QB the next class.
I see the validity of your argument, I’m really just stating my preference. With fewer ships, I just want the staff to be very selective.
however
what happens if pj beats out newsome this year? newsome becomes the career backup, bolden red-shirts, and then what? smoke in ears…
"They stalk their prey to within two or three great leaps and then launch a lightning-fast charge, striking their prey. Victims are most often killed by suffocation with a prolonged bite..."--Hinterland Who's Who
Exactly.
I guess my main point is that there is never going to be more than one year of separation between Jones and Bolden, no matter who redshirts, or if one starts this year. Newsome is essentially the wild card.
However, having said all of the above, I’d rather have this problem than the alternative.
"Have I ever told the story of when I met Miley Cyrus?"
by Jeff Junstrom on Feb 8, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Here's how I see it
From Jones’s point of view, he gets a chance to compete for the job right now. He’s got a leg up on Bolden since he enrolled early, and Newsome didn’t exactly tear it up in garbage time last year. So he has a good a chance as anyone.
I’m kind of intrigued by Bolden though. Jones was already committed when Bolden committed, so the kid is obviously not afraid of competition. For that I already like him. I’m really interested in seeing what he can do. I really think in his mind he think he will win the job away from Newsome and Jones. To him it’s just a matter of time.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on Feb 8, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
Of the three
he might be the one that is most ready as of right now in terms of mechanics and physical ability. Both Newsome and Jones are raw as passers, but will both have a leg up on him in terms of knowing the playbook. It’s quite the interesting situation we have going on.
How about a highly rated "athlete"
that doesn’t perfectly fit in the QB category like the Drake? A guy that can do other stuff, but adds depth chartery at QB.
One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's
Possibly
If we had to, we could just put a Derrick Williams/Curtis Drake type guy back there and run the wildcat. Give me Drake, Royster, and Green in the backfield with an experienced offensive line and I bet I can score you a lot of points.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on Feb 8, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Look at Navy
They run the wishbone and throw five times per game for goodness sakes and they have no problem scoring points. It’s about adapting the system to your player skill set.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on Feb 8, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
News: Scout has released its first run-through for next year, and we're only going for 1 4-star QB.
We’re on the list for 2 top 31 rbs, several highly rated defensive players (most on the line and in the backfield), and a few linemen.
Here’s the top 100.
Rivals’ is not out yet, but you can expect pretty similar rankings, especially with the RBs Huggins and Poteat.
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
I'm not even going to bother reading that, no offense to you psume, this is a Scout/Rivals rant, not you
Our first commit of this recent class was a 4 star LB, and now he’s the #1 MLB via Scout. Not to mention a ton of our players went from 2’s and 3’s to 4 stars during the recruiting year (and a former 5 star commit from Maryland suddenly dropped down a star). It’s too early. I’ll be happy when we get a commit, if it looks like he’s a stud, great, but we’ll see how things pan out in the end.
The junior season may be what the bulk of these early ratings are based on, but I trust the coaches to know talent when they see it, and not just offer every five star kid because two websites say you should like some other schools. The gradual increase in ranking of our commits this year should be the greatest indicator of who you should really trust in the recruiting department. We knows how to pick em.
Relying on the star-system only
is what screwed Florida State’s pooch this past decade, by their own admission. Not enough scouting, video, interviews, etc. – just looking at stars and offering.
I’m with Dawson; can’t bring myself to read it.
No offense, PSUME.
'People are about as happy as they decide they want to be'
by Pete the Streak on Feb 8, 2010 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
As for Hull, he was ranked #30 overall when he was a 4*.
He’s around that now as a 5. They just expand the number of 5 stars over the course of the season.
I fully agree that rankings are BS, but the fact is, the numbers show that the teams with more 5*s than not tend to win. And, by the same token, the hype we got this year recruiting, plus what we’ve done on the field, will help us get the players our coaches want. So while the rankings don’t really matter, they do indirectly.
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
My word, it was slow around here today.
That’s all.
"I AM A DIEHARD REDSKINS FAN, CAPS, LEAFS, AND I LOVE WATCHING TENNIS. SO WHATS THE BIG DEAL"
Whoa, whoa, whoa...
There are kids with Rashard Casey posters on their walls?!!!
I will never forget that lose to Toledo.
I bought a white #12 jersey for Rashard Casey
People will stop me in bars on game day in Boston and say “Hey Kerry…Kerry!” And I was actually an acquaintance of Collins’ in school (same year, Lebanon friends), but no, I bought it for Rashard.
Don’t be talkin’ smack on Rashard. Love ya kid.
—
by boston_zenos on Feb 10, 2010 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
You can't forget about the kid from Scranton
He’s competing.
I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.
Scranton Kid
I would love to see him play,but it is a real long shot. Good luck to him.

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