Maybe we will be awesome soon?

by ckmneon on Mar 7, 2010 2:36 PM EST

Data and Charts with MS Paint drawn trendlines. Let's do this.

The following are the KenPom ratings for each PSU basketball team in the ED Era (2004-2010), with a 2 year running average inserted:

And a chart of the 2 year running average KenPom:

It's worth noting that the 2004 rating is not a 2 year running average; it's just the rating for 2004, as that was ED's first year. All of the data is taken from the end of the season, including postseason tournaments, and 2010 is not over. Also, the trendline was drawn in MS Paint and is therefore nothing more than a rough approximation. What it does show is that PSU has gotten consistently better over the ED Era, even if the wins aren't necessarily rolling in just yet.

As for 2011, the trend predicts that PSU's running average after next season will be #35, meaning next year's KenPom will have to be #-12. Last I checked, you couldn't do any better than #1, so the trend won't continue next year, but it does say that very big things are on the horizon.

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Ehh...

That running average has to get to between 35-45 to be a consistant bubble team, and probably higer still to become semi-regulars in the NCAA tournament.

The best I think we can hope for at this point is an NCAA berth next year and maybe another bid in Buie’s 4 years (if he stays that long) depending upon how ED does in recruiting the next couple years.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by Adam Bittner on Mar 7, 2010 2:47 PM EST reply actions

Trends

The ultra-scientific trendline says that PSU will be in the 35-45 range of running average next year, even though that would mean finishing #1-#7ish in the country.

Reach out; touch faith.

by ckmneon on Mar 7, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

I don't see a formula for the trendline, so I can't plug in the numbers for myself

but if it’s in regards to PSU basketball, I’m guessing when that trendline hits zero, it will be exactly December 21, 2012 (Mayan end of the world date).

by dawsonPSU10 on Mar 7, 2010 8:10 PM EST up reply actions

Formula

(2 year running avg KenPom ranking) = ~~25 * (year of ED Era) + 210. Approximately. It basically predicts anything from PSU being #7 to #1 next year, as that would bring the 2 year running average (for ’10~~’11) in the #40-45 range.

Reach out; touch faith.

by ckmneon on Mar 7, 2010 10:59 PM EST up reply actions

I don't know how that got so screwed up

(2 year running avg KenPom ranking) = 25 * (year of ED Era) + 210. Approximately. It basically predicts anything from PSU being #7 to #1 next year, as that would bring the 2 year running average (for ’10’11) in the #40-45 range.

Reach out; touch faith.

by ckmneon on Mar 7, 2010 11:00 PM EST up reply actions

I must say though

Thanks for posting this. Is there any way you could plug the Dunn years in there, too?

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by Adam Bittner on Mar 7, 2010 2:48 PM EST reply actions

Data

Can’t find KenPom data for the Dunn years, though admittedly I haven’t looked all that hard.

Reach out; touch faith.

by ckmneon on Mar 7, 2010 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

Totally unrelated, but does anyone else Read "Ken P-o-m" as "Ken P-o-r-n"?

At first glance the M looks like an R and an N to me. That is all, carry on wayward son.

by dawsonPSU10 on Mar 7, 2010 8:10 PM EST reply actions

No.

"It’s just that, reading through this thread, it appears you’re getting your ass kicked." -jtothep

by ReadingRambler on Mar 7, 2010 9:00 PM EST up reply actions

Get your mind out of the gutter.

"It’s just that, reading through this thread, it appears you’re getting your ass kicked." -jtothep

by ReadingRambler on Mar 7, 2010 9:00 PM EST up reply actions

no

Sorry, gotta agree with Rambler here.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by Adam Bittner on Mar 7, 2010 9:14 PM EST up reply actions

I’m with you, Dawson. Always looks like that to me, too.

by Rocky Mountain Nittany Lion on Mar 8, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions

Thank you

Rambler and fugi know they thought the same thing I did, they’re just denying it.

by dawsonPSU10 on Mar 8, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions

The KenPom ratings

Just prove what I’ve thought all along. Take a look at our ‘luck’ factor and it’s rank. We actually have the statistically worst luck in the entire country. It’s no secret that we’re way better than how we played this season. I absolutely think we can make into the conference tournament semifinals before getting manhandled by Purdue.

by dbl5030 on Mar 8, 2010 12:27 PM EST reply actions

Fair enough

Last season the team was one of the luckier ones in winning nearly all of its close games. It doesn’t usually even out so dramatically in back to back seasons. But I’d rather win a tournament one year and underachieve the next than have two middling seasons.

Next year, this team should be pretty darn good.

by gcdyersb on Mar 9, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions