QB Play: Maybe We Can Be Average
by Cairo on May 17, 2010 3:23 PM EDT
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14 completions on 25 attempts, 175 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
There has been a lot written in recent weeks concerning the guy who will be behind center for Penn State next year. Most of these write-ups have a similar line of reasoning: Penn State is inexperienced at quarterback. This inexperience will lead to relatively bad quarterback play, which coupled with a challenging schedule will lead to a gloom-and-doom mediocre season for Penn State.
This line of reasoning may be true, but it seems too easy. I wanted to craft a quick study to see how Penn State can expect their season to fare with inexperience behind center. Specifically:
- How can PSU avoid having a bad quarterback, particularly a bad underclassman quarterback?
- How has PSU fared in the past in similar situations, and what can we guess will happen this time?
- Do we need a great quarterback to win 11 games next season?
19-29, 230 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INT
I like keeping things simple for qualitative assessments. If you try to overwhelm people with mountains of intricately counterbalanced data, you sometimes end up trying to convince people on how accurate your methods are rather than just exploring something for fun and recognize its imperfections. This is why I’m going to look at a single, accessible statistic.
As in a previous post, I’m going to use Passer Efficiency Rating to measure quarterback play. I’m not a staunch advocate for Passer Efficiency Rating. It’s not the best gauge of what makes a good or a bad quarterback. It doesn’t consider offensive schemes, quality of opposition, rushing, leadership, untimely fumbles, heart (Tebow skewed that statistical model off the charts), or many of the other things that make a good quarterback.
It is, however, easy to understand—the more passes you complete, the more touchdowns you throw and interceptions you don’t throw, the higher your number. By and large, if you create more offensive yardage and throw more touchdowns than interceptions, your win-loss record will be better. Quick and dirty. When you mash together the Passer Efficiency Rating of hundreds of games and dozens of quarterbacks over time, some patterns do appear.
17-30, 219 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
So how can PSU avoid having a quarterback that tanks our season?
It’s too much to ask for Bolden or Newsome or any of the QB corps to step up and be a great quarterback. Sure, if we have the next Sam Bradford under center throwing 36 TDs to 8 INTs as a freshman then we shouldn’t have a problem putting together a Big Ten championship run. It’s unreasonable to assume or expect greatness, particularly with the little evidence we have before us.
One of the ways the Nittany Lions can avoid having a bad QB is if PSU simply has an average quarterback. Is it too much to ask for an inexperienced underclassman quarterback to just be average? What is average?
We can answer both of these questions by looking at the passer efficiency ratings of quarterbacks last year and break them down into seniors, juniors, sophomores, and freshmen. Here are the results:
There is no real improvement in passer efficiency rating between an average sophomore quarterback and an average senior quarterback. There is a notable difference when you start a freshman. This does not mean that Paul Jones shouldn’t start, but that there’s a fairly noticeable equality amongst average QBs once they have burned a year of eligibility. Senior leadership does not necessarily equate into better performance on the field.
So, if you cross off the freshman, it stands to assume that an "average quarterback" will be one with a passer efficiency rating around 130-138 over the season. Here’s a list of some of last year’s quarterbacks that had ratings in that range:
- Jonathan Crompton, SR, Tennessee, 136.02 Passer Efficiency Rating
- Greg Paulus, SR, Syracuse, 132.60
- Joey Elliot, SR, Purdue, 131.13
- Jerrod Johnson, JR, Texas A&M, 136.75
- Richard Stanzi, JR, Iowa, 131.62
- Jordan Jefferson, SO, LSU, 137.18
- Matt Barkley, FR, USC, 131.32
There’s a mix of successful, semi-successful, and bad teams there. One way of interpreting this data is that a good team with an average quarterback will be good, and a bad team with an average quarterback will be bad. If PSU has just an average quarterback, it might be enough for a good season.
9-18, 139 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
Can we back it up with some empirical evidence to indicate that an average QB can lead to a good PSU season? Has PSU fared well with an average QB in the past? Can this tell us something about what to expect next season?
I explored Penn State quarterbacks in the past on the basis of Passer Efficiency since 2000. Here are the results:
The dark blue dots represent the Passer Efficiency Rating of the starting quarterbacks each year. The light blue line represents what an average Big Ten quarterback fared in that year for comparison purposes, and the green halos represent PSU Big Ten Championships.
What you find is that PSU has had rather unremarkable quarterbacks statistically until Clark came along. Even Michael Robinson (stats be damned he was a great QB in 2005) was only average as a QB in passer efficiency and below average in the Big Ten that season.
In terms of passer efficiency, PSU has had only two "average" quarterbacks in the past ten years. One (2002) was an underclassman quarterback and PSU won nine games and lost two in overtime. The other (2005) was an upperclassman and PSU won the Big Ten title and finished #3 in the nation. What did we have those seasons to complement the QBs?
- Great returning running backs (Larry Johnson and Tony Hunt)
- Impact wide receivers (Bryant Johnson, D-Wheels & company)
- Solid defense (27th and 12th in total defense nationally)
I think it’s safe to say that PSU has done well with average quarterback.
Even average might not be necessary. If you want further evidence, PSU has been successful with bad QBs in recent years. Not to bag on a guy who’s continuing to chase his dream, but Anthony Morelli had some terrible passer efficiency numbers. Still, his teams won 18 games over two seasons. How? Great running backs, impact wide receivers, and continued excellence in defense which has ranked in the top 15 every year since 2004.
18-32, 224 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
As some of you might have guessed, the QB stat lines I’ve interspersed in this post are lines that will get you an average passer efficiency rating—between 132 to 134 for the game.
Read into them a bit.
These aren’t tremendous numbers. There are a lot of dropped passes, overthrown balls for interceptions, and very few forty yard bombs in these stat lines. It’s the line of a quarterback who doesn’t have a great day. He doesn’t need to be great. Just average will do.
There are no guarantees that average or great QB play will equate to a great season, but at the very least, I think this exercise has shown that the concerns that many experts have about Penn State’s quarterback problem might be a bit overstated. Other teams have had undergraduate quarterbacks with limited experience and been successful. PSU has had QB’s with limited experience and been equally successful.
Few of those teams have had an MVP candidate as a running back, a dynamic wide receiver corps, an improving offensive line, and a defense that has shown it can reload every season. Plus, we haven't even explored how a running quarterback can effect game play.
If you assume the quarterback can at least be average, then why not dream about a great season?
16-25, 190 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
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Did someone say John Shaffer?
Great stuff, I’m still worried about turn-style, banana peel, stop sign and scarecrow.
And did you catch that contrast between Morelli and DC? Those 2 add’l wins per season seem about right for an above average QB vs. a bum.
We don't need a hero
We just need a guy that won’t fumble the ball away three times in the second half.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
Send this to Jay to help the QB selection
We want Thunderdome! You know the law. Two men enter, one man leaves.
by Frank O'Brien on May 18, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree completely with this post
this is why that i feel anything less than an 8 win regular season is a dissapointment
I L'ed OL
"Nothing turns me on like doe estrus." - ReadingRambler
by leeharvey418 on May 17, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
How about a guy with
a below average QB rating but above average rushing and ability to create out of broken plays.
One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's
say,,,
it sounds to me like you’re describing Kevin Newsome!?!?
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
I know you didn't get into this,
but I would say that MRob was a great QB in spite of his position below the line because of his threat to run and incredible determination.
I believe that Newsome is the best runner we (PSU) have ever seen at the position. So now we get to, how competent of a passer does he need to be for the offense to be effective. I would argue, not quite as competent as MRob. I don’t know how much less competent we are talking. If I were forced to articulate it, I would guess that he needs to show the ability to make a good pass now and again, to maintain the threat to throw.
The second part of that is, look at the difference between 06-07 and 08-09. What is the real difference there. As a pure statistical point, It has to be interceptions.
So taking my own logic to the end here, how competent does Newsome have to be for our offense to be effective enough where we could beat anybody? I think he needs to show he is physically capable of completing some nice passes so you can’t cheat on the run every down, and limit the turnovers.
Boy, that was a lot to say for such a simple point. But I think it’s a long-winded and logical way of pointing out that we don’t need someone to instantly step in and bomb away.
I don't know how...
…you can rank Newsome ahead of M-Rob, Casey or even Mills in his early years as a runner yet.
Admittedly, I'm extrapolating a very small sample size.
It will all go out the window if he starts taking huge losses or fumbling constantly, sure. But every time we speculate regarding loads of QBs that we’ve seen none of we are projecting based on whatever information we have. That’s why I prefaced with “I believe.” To be clearer I should have said, “if you make the assumption that.” It’s a big assumption, but the point was more that taking Cairo’s excellent data and purpose even further, I do think we will see the offense could succeed with even further below average passing if Newsome can be the runner we are lead to believe.
by PSUinBOSSton on May 17, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds good to me
I guess, I’m doing the same thing when I assume we’ll struggle at QB…speculating, assuming, etc
What made MRob so good in 2005
was his decision-making ability. Few turnovers. He threw the ball out of bounds when needed and tucked it and ran when that was the right choice. Unlikely that any underclassmen is going to be able to deliver on that.
I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.
fixed it for you
What made MRob so good in 2005 after the Northwestern game…
by The JuggerNitt on May 17, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
second this
He came a LONG way during the season as well. I don’t expect that much progression from anyone as young (as our QB will be). I think we are going to see an offense a bit different, and less pass reliant, than even the 2005 offense. And I think it can work.
by PSUinBOSSton on May 17, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Great job, Cairo
Thoughtful, as always. BTW, check out these 2009 average stats for one of our opponents this year:
14-23,
179 yds
1.21 TDs
.28 INTs
140.55 Rating
14-0
"So while while I may be douchy, I’m not rusty."
Ok
First off, Ohio State didn’t go 14-0.
Secondly, TP arm-punted way more than .28 INTs a game.
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
I know
I was just being a dick.
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
Without looking up the stats, though, I know we do play a team that went 14-0 last year.
Maybe jtot was talking about Illinois.
Black Shoe Diaries
Success With Honor
by Jeff Junstrom on May 17, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I restrained myself from showing TP's numbers.
His numbers are so mediocre that I don’t know if he supports or refutes any case you place on QB success. He’s like the exception to every rule.
Cairo, you fool.
New adoring OSU fan nickname for Lebron in Cleats:
The Exception
"I want your money, but I don't want your two cents." - JVP
by ReadingRambler on May 17, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Great work Cairo
I obliged you and read into the stat lines. My initial thought was that the # of attempts was too high. 9-18, 139, 1, 0 is the only one that seemed viable for Newsome (or whoever).
But, I looked at the other “average” QBs years you mention, 2002 and 2005, to see how their ratings broke down into an average stat line per game. The average game for Mills in 02 is 14-26, 186 yds, 1.31TD, 0.77 Int. The average game for Robinson in 05 is 14-26, 196 yds, 1.42 TD, 0.83 Int.
Two things: They are remarkably similar to one another, and very close to the last stat line in your post.
I recognize Robinson was a senior and Mills was a second year starter, but I think it shows that the coaches would be more than willing to let the QB throw at least 20 times per game, even with a strong returning running back.
Anyway, you’re still the boss for statistical analysis, but I thought this might provide some extra context.
by Illegal Formation on May 17, 2010 4:46 PM EDT reply actions
PSU QB's....
Since I was 2 when Blackledge won a MNC and 6 in 1986/7, the best PSU QB I ever saw was Collins and the only QB that I thought was “great”. Mills at times, Robinson at times, and Clark I thought were very good. The rest since circa 1990 were either mediocre or rubbish, though I recall Wally Richardson not being horrible.
You have to remember that until recently, PSU never really asked much of its QB – basically unless you were really talented (i.e., Collins) you were asked not to bleep it up. Now, the offense requires the QB to be good.
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 17, 2010 5:02 PM EDT reply actions
I remember...
liking Sacca, but I can’t remember if he was actually good. I remember a lot of running the ball in those years, but you can add him to my list.
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 19, 2010 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions
If it is Kevin...
then he will have to learn to read defenses and look to others besides the primary….he IS young, but he tends to tuck and run….what do we really know about the others?
The problem with average...
Is the word ‘average.’ So after starting out 17-23 for 3 TDs with no picks against YSU, it means there’s a 9-20 0 TD 2 INT game waiting in the wings.
Absolutely true.
Conversationally, there is a difference between a steady average player and an erratic average player. I’m trying to make a case that a steady average player is something we can gravitate towards. A QB with one great game, one letdown game, and a bunch of average performances could lead to a pretty successful record on the season. Three great performances against YSU, Temple, and Illinois coupled with three horrible performances against OSU, Iowa, and Alabama might not.
Incidentally: Anthony Morelli’s Passer Efficiency rating against Youngstown State: 88.65.
Cairo you are a delight
This got me thinking a little about Jones. Since the biggest jump in PER is from freshman to sophomore year, would it make sense to go with Jones IF he has the better long term potential than Newsome? Going off these numbers, it would stand to reason that Jones would be a notch below Newsome this year, but could catch up with him by 2011. Clearly this isn’t the whole story, but it just was something I thought about when looking at the numbers.
I go back and forth from that and starting K-New
currently I am in the school of having to start the best player and not looking forward to 2011. I mean how can you tell a senior that you aren’t trying everything you can to win right now?
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face
Can a 2 QB system help us take advantage of Paul Jones and beat Bama?
With KNew and PJ both relatively inexperienced, does it make any sense to run a simplified, two QB playbook in the beginning of the season? One of the big learning curve issues for a freshman is learning the playbook, so what if the first few games they taught PJ just a portion of the playbook and inserted him for part of the game? He’d of course need to learn how to read defenses, which just might be impossible by game 2, but you have to think that a 2 QB system with two dangerous yet very little known QBs could cause a lot of stress for all those first year starters on Bama’s new defense. And there would be virtually no tape available to Bama at that point, so even if PJ only had 10 solid plays in his arsenal, Bama would still never know what’s coming. This could also be a great indirect way of stretching the offense out with PJ’s arm for a few plays in the game just to remind the secondary and LBs from Bama that they’re dangerous out there.
I'm pretty sure that was discussed in another thread, possibly the Blue/White game recap.
Using Jones in the Red Zone where defenses can commit more to the run and shut down Newsome. I believe it was dubbed the “Rational Cat” offense. I am all in favor of it, to be completely honest. I think long term Jones or Bolden just has a much higher ceiling for our offensive style than Newsome does. Or I could be completely wrong and Newsome will turn into an amazing passer.
At this point, it’s going to take another Anthony “Pick Six” Morelli to make me doubt Jaypa’s vision and direction with this offense. Still far, far more concerned about our Oline than I am about who’s under center.
Rational Cat FTW
I’d love to see PJ inside the 30 taking shots at the endzone and letting Moye, Brown, and Zug go up and get the football. I don’t think he’s much use between the 30’s where a zone-read option is going to spread the field, but when ’Bama is loading the box up with 8-9 guys on a short field, I say send in PJ and let him throw that fade pass like he did at the B&W.
Nothing against Newsome, but I think we have a physical advantage at WR and PJ gives us an opportunity to take advantage of that height with touch passes. Newsome is going to complete some passes, but it’s going to be underneath stuff and ’Bama will be ready for it. We need points early and then we need to lock it up with defense and ball control — I think PJ can get us an extra TD early that could be the difference.
Do you want the mustache on, or off?
Too bad.
You should be very very proud of this coinage
Rational Cat ftw, indeed.
"So while while I may be douchy, I’m not rusty."
Thank you millzners for being the first person to give a rational, backed up reason for using PJ
I still kind of disagree based on PJ not having to play against the 1st team D, but I think this is the first rational explanation that doesn’t involve, “PLAN FOR THE FUTURE!!!!”.
While those fades were pretty, I still think in context of the defenders he was playing against, he shouldn’t automatically get a pass. If he had pulled those two TDs off against the 1st team D and Kersey, or whichever WR beat Morris or Lynn in the same situation, I would totally agree with you, but something tells me a true freshman would be a just a tad bit less successful with our starting D-line on his ass.
I am a firm believer in
that if you rotate QBs, you have no QB….the 2-QB system just doesn’t work, at least not at PSU.
Disagree
We had a nice run in ’99 with Casey/Thompson. The defense was sick, but the offense had to be pretty good to start out 9-0, then lose 3 games by an average of 4 points. And neither Casey nor Thompson had much mop-up time under their belts either.
Bacon is almost as great as being a Penn Stater
by NittanyTide on May 18, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice Post
Here is how I feel about the QB situation. If I were game planning I would want Newsome, or who ever to basically be a ball jockey. Take the ball hand it off right, take the ball hand it off left. Take the shotgun snap, run the zone read. Basically rely on field position, ball control, and a stout defense to win 9-10 games. Sure Alabama is going to be a tough game, but don’t panic, stay the course, and don’t make Newsome feel like he has to win the game. All he has to do is manage the game, if he tries to win the game, especially with his arm, it could be disastrous.
I am Laura Nichols and I like Bacon.
BSD is an addiction, and this is the first step.
It'll all come down to turnovers.
If Newsome’s consistently sloppy with the ball, then we’re looking at depth chart chaos behind him. He’s going to make mistakes. Clark made mistakes. The issue will be whether there’s a continued course of bad decisions. This defense will likely be good enough to overcome a few offensive hiccups in the games PSU should win.
I’ve resigned myself to “puncher’s chance” status for the big three games.
"When it’s third-and-10, you can take the milk drinkers and I’ll take the whiskey drinkers every time" - Max McGee
by Run Up The Score on May 18, 2010 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you use the 08 OSU gameplan in the big three
take a few shots down the field but basically play it tight and wait for the other team to blink, while keeping your eyes propped open with toothpicks.
The turnovers will happen, but what can’t happen is Newsome being put into situations where he HAS to make the play. 3rd and long in your own zone? Run the ball, or throw a WR screen, then punt. It won’t be sexy, it will be frustrating but in the end that is how you win with a young QB. Throw with him when you don’t need to do so, and don’t be afraid to punt.
I am Laura Nichols and I like Bacon.
BSD is an addiction, and this is the first step.
by carolinaeasy on May 18, 2010 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Punting is winning!
"When it’s third-and-10, you can take the milk drinkers and I’ll take the whiskey drinkers every time" - Max McGee
by Run Up The Score on May 18, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
It goes back to the old Bill Parcells theory of "Hidden Yardage"
According to Parcells’s theory, every 100 yards in hidden yardage — through penalties, interceptions, punt and kickoff returns and field position following kickoffs — is worth 7 points. He contends that fewer than 100 yards in hidden yardage can be equal to a pro-rated percentage of 7 points. Thus, if you have, say, 50 yards more than the opponent by the end of the game in this phase, you should have an extra 3 to 4 points.
I see that as a key to PSU’s chances in the Big Three.
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 18, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Has anyone actually conducted a statistical analysis of this?
THAT would be interesting and you would have a really big sample size to use.
For the glory
I have seen studies done by NFL teams on each part of the "Hidden Yardage"
I do not have the time nor the ability to do something like that myself. I can tell you that according to several studies of NFL football the most important play in football is the punt. More yardage is exchanged on that one play than any other play save an explosive one. There is also a chart of starting field position and % of offensive success. Use those charts, and add the penalty yardage and see the percentages.
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 19, 2010 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Here is a chart for the NFL
You can check out an article on the subject. This is NOT the study I viewed in the past. I saw an actual study by the NE Patriots, not some fan with a blog.
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 19, 2010 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Interesting...
what are your thoughts on the “new age” theory that you should go for it on fourth and “reasonable” rather than punt?
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 19, 2010 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions
in a bubble world where there are no other factors in play sure that could work
But I believe you play the percentages and give your defense the best possible chance to succeed. Going for it on your own 45 yard line gives the opposition an expected 2 points, I would rather give them an expected 0 points by punting it into the endzone for a touchback (a much more reliable result)
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 19, 2010 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Is it playing the percentages...
if it’s 4th and 2 and you are averaging 4 yards a play? What’s the opportunity cost of punting? Don’t you score more points the more plays you run?
I don’t know the answers and I defer to you on matters of when to punt and when not to punt generally, but I think going for it is sometimes the better play.
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 19, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions
See this is where stats fail us
You can’t take into account human emotion in stats. Fourth and 2 in your own end, even averaging 4 yards a play does not account for the emotions of your players. I have read the theories behind going for it on 4th down no matter what, and I personally do not buy it. Not saying it won’t work, I just do not philosophically subscribe to that way of thought.
Also I don’t think you look at “we are averaging 4 yards a play” to make that decision. I think you look at how many times you FAIL or the percentage of failure to gain 2 yards. If you use the per play average, you might end up with failed results because of the numbers averaging out to take care of big plays and negative plays.
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 19, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I would be curious to see
a similar chart for the start of each set of downs (since technically once you start a new set of downs, your “drive” also sorta re-starts there).
You could then be like "well our expected points if we convert this 4th and 2 from the 45 yard line is 2.5, while if we don’t make it, their expected points will be 1.8. Our chance of converting on 4th and 2 is 25%, so the outcome of this play is on average 0.625 points for us, and 1.35 points for them, therefore we will punt it, giving them 0 points on average (and maybe even push them into the negative points range).
Of course you would need a good idea on your chances to convert, and this doesn’t factor in the emotional factors you alluded to.
by The JuggerNitt on May 19, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Now try being a head coach and doing all of that decision making
Plus picking out the play you will run?
I know personally when I am calling a play there are 10-15 factors that are weighing on my brain besides the down and distance. That is why coaching is not perfect, its too damn hard to do make these critical descions in a 10 second span.
True story: I worked for a guy right out of college, he was a true southern football coach, he did the aw shucks, routine, but was also a lunatic on the field. He would routinely burn all three timeouts in the first quarter over stupid stuff. Then in the second half we would be down two timeouts in a matter of minutes. I never could figure out why. Well a year latter he leaves for a bigger school, and calls me to go with him. While talking to him about stuff we got around to why he always blew his timeouts. His exact words were “because they were a crutch that I couldn’t coach with in crunch time.” The man didn’t want a lifeline so he would concentrate harder. It was the craziest thing ever, and the sad part is he was VERY successful.
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 19, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that you have too many factors to consider these statistics in the heat of the game,
I just want to see the statistics for the “fun” of it. When someone puts a theory out there, I just like to see it tested.
For the glory
yeah, I don't know if I'd be pulling out charts to make every play call
but if I had some numbers to shore up some general “rules” and knowing what the “point swing” for going for it vs punting it was for all the 10 or even 5 yard markers, it would make it a lot easier to just say “punt” or “go for it”. This seems like something that wouldn’t be too hard for an assistant to pull up prior to each game. Of course, knowing other factors, such as how tired the team is, how much time is left in the game, etc weigh in, but it would be something nice to have in the back of your head.
by The JuggerNitt on May 20, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there are probably too many variables,
many of which cannot be quantified, to really make this more than an academic exercise.
For the glory
right
or at least right in that the outcome of this probably wouldn’t change the “intuition” that coaches already have as to when to punt and when to go for it (ie the result will probably still be something like, “punt it if you are outside the opponent’s 45 yard line unless X, Y, and Z occur”
by The JuggerNitt on May 20, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes...
you need to account for emotion et al, and I don’t or wouldn’t advocate going for it on every fourth down, but fourth and short shouldn’t be an automatic punt. Punting can be strategic as you have highlighted, but it can also be the result of playing not to lose instead of seizing the opportunity to win.
I think if you routinely (but not always) went for it on fourth and short around mid field (say between the 40’s) I think you would instill confidence in your team. Yes, you will fail sometimes, but if going for it became routine the players would adjust and it just become another play.
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 20, 2010 7:44 AM EDT up reply actions
between the 40s?
I hope you mean “inside the 40s” because I think only a crazy man goes for 4th and short on their own 40 routinely
by The JuggerNitt on May 20, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would he be crazy?
Most offensive plays generate positive yardage? If your D was the sux then no, I wouldn’t go for it, but if my D was pretty good, then I would go for it more often than not.
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 20, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know how accurate this number is
but I’ve seen ~25-30% being thrown around for 4th and short conversions. So if you are on your own 40, and you go for it EVERY time in this situation, that means that:
4th down on the 40 (the article also went on to say that 0.5 points are lost for every additional down..or at least for the 2nd down, but I’m extrapolating it) would have a point expectancy of about 0 points.
30% conversion success to make it 1st down on their own 40 would then be an increase on average of ~1.5*0.3 = 0.45
But that also means a 70% fail chance, with the consequences being the other team gets the ball on YOUR 40, or a net -2.5. Multiply that by 0.7 and add it to the 0.45 and you have
0.45-1.75 = a loss of 1.3 points every time you go for it on your own 40.
If you punt it, however, say you get it on average to the other team’s 30 (a net 30 yard punt, I didn’t look up the average, so this number could vary)). They now have a ~0.9 point expectancy.
So in summary:
4th and short on your own 40 is ~0 point expectancy
If you go for it every time, that will average out to giving the other team 1.3 points
If you punt it, you are giving the other team 0.9 points.
By making the decision to go for it instead of punting, you are, in effect, giving up ~0.4 points to the other team.
Heck, as long as your net punt goes to the opponents 40 (a net punt of only 20 yards) you are still as good, or better off, punting it.
Of course the problem with this analysis is, again, it doesn’t take everything into account, and is heavily dependent on what your net punt would be, and how good you are at going for it on 4th and short (you say that most offensive plays gain yardage, but things change drastically on 4th and short plays where both teams essentially know what is coming), etc. etc.
Still, if I have a punter that will get me 30+ yards per punt, it would be crazy not to use it.
by The JuggerNitt on May 20, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the conversion...
on fourth and short is higher than 30%, but regardless, if you were rountinely “going for it” on fourth and short it would change your third down play calling. 3rd and 5 to 8 to go for a first down looks a lot more like 2nd and 5 to 8 to go.
I don’t know the answer, but is the correlation between “hidden yardage” and opponents points greater than the correlation to the amount of points you score and plays run? Maybe, as you say, if you fail once at fourth and short from your 40 it is a .4 point swing, but what is the swing in your favor if you convert the other three times?
Punting will probably be the smarter play on your side of the fifty, but I’m not convinced it is cut and dry.
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 21, 2010 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Well maybe you are right
According to this article (which basically makes both of our arguments for us), in the NFL the average for making it on 4th down is 53%, and it goes on to even mention about what % you would need in some specific situations (it cites a 64% from your own 25 yard line if you net 40 yards on a punt, but 48% if you net just 30 yards on a punt).
For my calculations, I redid them, assuming a 30 yard net punt (would be giving 0.9 points). If you go for it and make it, then instead of -0.9, you now have +1.5 points (a 2.4 point swing in your favor), whereas if you fail, then you go from giving 0.9 points to giving 2.5 points (a 1.6 point swing against you). If you do the math with these assumptions, then you would only need a 4th down conversion rate of 40% to be able to (I think).
But the website with the original article/plot has even more analysis specific to this topic (it is a four part series with the final summary part here which is all you really need to read),
While I still think these numbers are a bit too aggressive (since they are based on numbers derived from historical data, which is skewed towards conservative plays already…ie coaches only going for it in “safe” situations), even if toned down quite a bit, it would still indicate going for it on 4th a lot more often
by The JuggerNitt on May 21, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
though the more I think about it
employing this strategy would probably skew the results more in favor of being more aggressive…so perhaps the chart isn’t aggressive enough…which is surprising since it pretty much advocates ALWAYS going for it on 4th and 1.
by The JuggerNitt on May 21, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
bah
too far scrolled over..I’ll repost a bit lower
by The JuggerNitt on May 21, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Very interesting..
I’m not sure if I would go for it on 4th and inches from my 11, which the chart suggests. The reward is far outweighed by the risks.
As to conversion percentage, I would think 4th down conversion percentage would begin to look more like 3rd conversion percentage as you went for it more and produced a larger sample size of information.
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 21, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the reason "going for it" appears to be the right option, even when backed up
is that if you are backed up that far anyway, even with a punt, the other team is likely going to score anyway (at least a field goal), while if you go for it and make it you then still control the ball, and can further improve your own position.
So in effect:
punting it, on average, still gives away ~2 points
going for it and failing it gives up ~4 points
going for it and succeeding keeps the points expectancy ~0 points
But since the conversion % is upwards of 70-80% in a 4th and inches situation, the outcome of going for it is usually more like giving away 1.5 points (on average), which is better than punting it and giving away 2 points.
It makes sense if you realize the inevitability of the other team scoring on you anyway, if you’re already backed up that far
by The JuggerNitt on May 21, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point
Punting may be worse, because you would be giving up points and time of possession. It may be more valuable to get the ball back quicker.
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 21, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
plus you then give yourself the opportunity
to move the ball again, and get out of the jam, whereas by punting you are almost automatically giving up points.
I’m not completely convinced it would be worth going for it on every 4th and short situation, but I’m at least now at the point where I don’t find it as ridiculous, either.
by The JuggerNitt on May 21, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Generally speaking between the 40s
is where most fake punts take place. It is a “comfort” zone for most teams. FWIW
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 21, 2010 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't have time to do this either,
but I don’t quite get how yards from the end zone incorporates hidden yardage (I need to read the actual article). I’d like to see some type of odds ratio or marginal effect calculated, but that’s just the nerd in me.
For the glory
the yards add up to the amount of success your opponent will have.
The further you can make them start their drives the less likely they are to find offensive success. The hidden yardage will help you in the end because it puts your opponent in a deeper starting position.
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 19, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I looked at the chart and said, "duh"
when I first saw it. It stands to reason that your expected points will increase the closer you are to the goal line. So does this show that if you take over or start on your 40 yard line, gain 40 yards, but get 20 yards in penalties, your expected points go from over 4 to 2.something? I’d still like to see a regression analysis that shows that every 5 yards in penalties results in x fewer points or something. I’ve already written a dissertation, though. I don’t need to do another.
For the glory
well this chart is most likely out there
I doubt you can get it for free though.
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 19, 2010 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
while the linked chart wasn't linear
it was linear enough to be used for something like this.
This isn’t an exact measurement, but it looks like every 20 yards in field position is equal to about 1.75 points, so every 5 yards in penalties would be worth just under half a point.
It probably doesn’t equate EXACTLY like this, and not on every play (ie you have a 10 yard holding penalty on the 40, and don’t convert a first down. You punt it from the 50, and are able to down it on the 5, whereas if you punted it from the 40 you still may have downed it on the 5 (or maybe it would have been a touchback, which would actually be a worse outcome)
by The JuggerNitt on May 20, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
This is just to repost the other, I think more telling, plot
by The JuggerNitt on May 21, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Who..
has the constititution to go for it on 4th and inches from your own 11? Risk far outweighs the reward of 4 more downs.
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 21, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
That is why stats mean PHOEEY at times in football
you cannot factor everything into stats. Use them as a guide, but not as a code of conduct.
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 21, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean..
I do it in video games, but I don’t have to talk about it with reports when I fail to pick it up.
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 21, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Or deal with the lunatic parents from the stands
I have long ago subscribed to the philosophy that “If a coach wants love, he gets losing”. I do what I feel is best for the team, not the best for my image when I make decisions. In the end I feel by staying true to my convictions I will have more success than if I compromise. Does that even make sense?
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 21, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
It does.
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 21, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
It does make sense
Good leaders do stay true to their convictions. Leaders also ignore public relations messaging at their peril.
Crack is wac
which is sorta the problem if you use these statistical analysis
even if they are guaranteed to give your team a better chance in the long run, no one will see that, or remember it. Say you use this model, and go for it every 4th and 1 or 2 situation. This then goes on to give your team a much better chance at winning games. But then in one big game you follow your winning gameplan, but don’t convert in a critical situation, and lose the game. People will mostly only remember that failed attempt (or the 20-30% failed attempts) and not the successful ones (70-80% of the time).
by The JuggerNitt on May 21, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I still wouldn't follow these stats as a gameplan
It would be in my mind. But the intangibles would be there too.
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 21, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
What if you changed your overall
philosphy? I have no experience as a football coach. What is more valuable for you: having the ball or where the ball is on the field (regardless of who is in possession)?
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 21, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see that happening.
As I said before there are too many other elements. And your philosophy in High School will vary with your team. You really cannot recruit so it is tough to “be a specific style” over 10 year period you will change with your team. But I still like to win with defense, not lose with offense.
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 21, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a good way to..
win.
Never mistake effort for achievement.
Ah, beer, my one weakness. My Achille's heel, if you will. - HJS
by Esteban d' Amur on May 21, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
This sounds smart, but the other side of the coin has a Bama defense thats very inexperienced. By running an ‘08 OSU type gameplan, we fail to really take advantage of their inexperience by just doing what’s predictable. Sure, they’ll make mistakes because they’re young, but a predictable game plan plays much more into their talent level than a confusing one.
So if they are young chances are they will over pursuit
Run right at them, run the zone read, and run play action. Don’t try and spread em out ala Iowa 08. Run, Run, Run, mix in the playaction. Don’t let their defense beat you.
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 18, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Triple option and the like are exactly what I see happening 85% of the time against Bama.
They’ll be young, and like carolina says, they’ll be prone to overpursuit (don’t forget, these are the cream of the prima donna crop – they CAN’T miss tackles, just ask them). The best way to keep a D off balance with vanilla playcalling is to call the least vanilla of plays – options – where they know one of two/three guys has it, but as soon as they commit to one, the other pulls a rabbit out of his ass hat.
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
I fully expect a 7-9 win season.
I won’t be disappointed, it is a young team that is growing. If the line gels early it could be really exciting. But that is a situation that I wouldn’t go to vegas over.
I am Laura Nichols and I like Bacon.
BSD is an addiction, and this is the first step.
by carolinaeasy on May 18, 2010 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Pretty much.
I’m mentally kicking around a post about how a low-expectations season is setting up to be quite enjoyable. There are three games on the schedule in which we’ll clearly be heavy underdogs. Just the type of low-pressure, high-reward games that a team like PSU ’10 needs to grow.
"When it’s third-and-10, you can take the milk drinkers and I’ll take the whiskey drinkers every time" - Max McGee
by Run Up The Score on May 18, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
This makes me fret incredibly about our punter.
by PSUinBOSSton on May 18, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
He's the young kid
in the left check out line at the State Store.
by DerryPharmer on May 18, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
3rd Down Percentage?
Someone should do some research (not it!) on our 3rd down conversion percentage since 2000 and how that correlates to our QB success. I remember Zach Mills being awful on 3rd down. I remember MRob always getting 3rd down or 4th down when we had to have it. Morelli seemed to get 3rd down sometimes, Clark did better than Morelli on 3rd down but more often in 2008 than 2009. I think MRob and Clark were so successful because they could tuck it and run. I think if Newsome can protect the ball, make some throws and take off when things colapse that he can do enough to keep us in every game. I have faith!!
there's one thing people have to remember
we went 18-8 in 2 seasons with Morelli at qb. i’m pretty sure we’ll be fine
I plan to be shot for saying this
but Morelli really wasn’t that bad…
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 18, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
time has tempered my emotions
When in doubt, punt!
- John Heisman
by carolinaeasy on May 18, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I think a lot of people have come to this realization.
While I’m more optimisitc about 2010 (and EXTREMEMLY optimisitce about 2011 and 2012), I’m ok with 9 wins, which were amply provided twice by Plum’s Finest.
Black Shoe Diaries
Success With Honor
by Jeff Junstrom on May 18, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
The chart disagrees.
"When it’s third-and-10, you can take the milk drinkers and I’ll take the whiskey drinkers every time" - Max McGee
by Run Up The Score on May 18, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I was surprised to see his rating was that low.
So, yeah, in contrast to what MRob and DC did he was that bad.
by Frank O'Brien on May 18, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Morelli wasn't bad
if he were a kid with no expectations. He was below average, though, at least according to the stats, and always seemed to underperform. He also had that ARod (pre-2009) syndrome where he could hit the HR at will…except when it mattered. That’s great and all that you can throw a 70 yard bomb against Akron, but I’d rather trade that and your fumble against OSU for just 2 average plays.
by The JuggerNitt on May 18, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, morelli wasn't bad overall,
he had those moments where he looked like a great qb. but then other times, and more often than not, he looked like a chicken with its head cut off. i’ve never faulted the guy for his effort, he obviously was giving it everything he had out there, but he just didn’t have the all-around skills to be anything more than an overall average qb
in conclusion, he wasn’t horrible, he had his moments, and he was average at best overall.
I have realistic expectations about this season,
but I’m not counting Alabama as a total loss yet. Maybe it’s living in Alabama, maybe it’s growing up hating Alabama (that’s wired into my DNA), maybe it’s drinking too much blue kool-aide, but I’m not going to stop hoping we can win until the clock ticks down to the final seconds in the fourth quarter.
Great analysis, Cairo! I agree that if we can keep from fumbling and KNew can run effectively, we have a chance!
For the glory
I'm split on this as well
Alabama has all the makings of the overrated, overhyped, overranked pre-season team that won’t live up to expectations, and I think for most normal years this would be a prime opportunity for PSU to take advantage of that, but I don’t know if we will be able to with such a green QB behind an ok line. All the rest of the pieces seem to be in place for us, though.
by The JuggerNitt on May 18, 2010 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's a fun hypothetical
Suppose we do beat a #1 Alabama in Tuscaloosa, do we unfairly jump ten spots in the rankings like they did after they beat OMG Georgia in 2008 (who turned out to be TEH SUX)? Or for the first time, do pollsters/coaches actually realize they overhyped a team unjustly? Where would we end up in the rankings? In front or behind Bama?
by dawsonPSU10 on May 18, 2010 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Bama would drop to 3-5
We’d jump to 10-15.
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
I agree,
and I mention our weaknesses to all of the Alabama people that I talk to (sorry for the incorrect grammar but “with whom I speak” seems overly formal). Still, in my heart, I’m keeping hope alive!
For the glory
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