Defending the West: Missouri
Attrib: timsamoff via Flickr
Kansas City--the Western Frontier of the Big Ten. As the picture clearly shows, the sun always shines brightest on KC--which probably explains my air conditioning bills.
As one of the 903,540 households in the KC region (and paying an extra $4 a month to get BTN on Time Warner cable) I feel the need to provide a counterpoint to Kevin’s great post about how New York City is a far better market than Kansas City. On the surface it looks obvious that NYC should be grabbed, but if it was so clear the Big Ten would have made a strong move by now. I'm trying to explain why the Big Ten is seriously considering Missouri as a highly viable option for the Big Ten, and why the TV market prospects in the Show-Me State may be better than you think.
First a little primer about the state of Missouri: like Pennsylvania, its secondary education system is dominated by a public institution located in the middle of the state. Unlike Pennsylvania, there is no other FBS athletic competition in the state. No Pitt. No Temple. Missouri is it.
Like Pennsylvania, it has two large metropolitan areas at the edges of the state. While the area in between these cities (Pitt/Philly, KC/St. Lou) is often perceived from a distance as a wasteland of discarded soy bean hulls and hill people--there are in fact a number of fairly sizeable towns which, when aggregated, adds up to quite a lot of people.
It’s only fair when assessing these TV market discussion to note that Kansas City is not the only TV market that would be added with the addition of the University of Missouri. It's correspondingly fair to consider that Kansas City--while a college sports hotbed--is highly divided between Kansas, Missouri, and Kansas State fans, with some Nebraska fans tossed in the mix.
With all this in mind, these are my rough assessments of TV market share percentages of Missouri TV markets and the households that have an earnest interest in the University of Missouri and its athletic program:
St. Louis – 75% of the market (BTN was just added in 2010, but it would greatly solidify its market standing)
KC – 40%
Springfield – 85%
Cape Girardeau – 33%
Columbia – 100%
Joplin – 50%
Kirksville – 60%
St. Joseph – 60%
Combining these portions of households totals 2.1 million people, which if it were a single TV market would put it in the Top 10 in the country. That’s not peanuts.
Admittedly it is a fraction of the New York City market. Still, consider that I made an attempt to rationally judge a percentage of the households in the state that would at least have a fleeting interest in Missouri athletics.
Try to judge the enigmatic New York City market in the same way.
What percentage of New York City will be an active supporter of a regional program? Would 25% of the city identify with Syracuse? Would 30% of households identify with Rutgers? What percentage wouldn’t identify with any college sports program—there are ten professional franchises between East Rutherford and Flushing Point, each clamoring for local citizens' entertainment dollars. I feel that if New York City was a college sports town, there would already be a major presence there.
The counter to this argument is, "it doesn’t matter, cable companies just look at whole numbers and New York City blows Missouri out of the water." That’s true, but eventually you will need ratings, and where will ratings be sustainable? The numbers of households that would watch BTN could be much closer than you think.
Beyond TV market share are the prospects of the institutions. I feel Missouri is a better long-term investment for the Big Ten. Firstly: Jim Delaney has already alluded to "Sun Belt" growth in their plans for expansion. Although nobody has ever confused Missouri with Malibu, the population of Missouri is growing three times faster than New York state, three times faster than Pennsylvania, and almost four times faster than Ohio.
Secondly, there’s the matter of the school's football program: Rock M Nation has been ranking the Mizzou football teams from 1920 to the present day. Two things come to mind: this team has been strongly supported for a long time, and jeebus they've had to sit through a lot of mediocre 6 and 7 win seasons. If the Big Ten was looking to invest in stocks, Missouri would be an underperforming stock with good recent indications that it will trend upward. The payoff could be big.
Buy low, sell high. Give me more of a sure deal in Missouri and the Big Ten can turn their 50,000 football fans into 90,000 Big Ten fans by the end of the 2020s.
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I have a feeling that the master plan includes Missouri
Missouri won’t be the lonely 12th member (that can only be ND or possibly Nebraska) but they are definitely a possibility for 14 members and I don’t see how they wouldn’t be included if it gets to 16.
"I'm driven by greatness" - Derrick Williams
Well to be fair to the East schools (like Rutgers)
if you’re gonna include all the other areas of Missouri, then you would need to include the entire state of NJ in the “NYC market” talk as well.
Fair enough.
..but I don’t know the breakouts. If it’s Syracuse, you also get Syracuse, Rochester, Albany, etc. in certain percentages. If it’s Rutgers it’s Exits 12, 10, and 8 in certain percentages.
Branson is noticibly absent
from your list of MO cities that matter. Are you saying College Athletics is not good wholesome family entertainment?
Branson, Missouri, nestled in the lakeside beauty of the Ozark Mountains, is America’s affordable, wholesome family entertainment capital that emphasizes fun, comfort and the feeling of being right at home. Featuring an array of live theaters and attraction venues and active recreational pursuits, the community embodies essential American values such as patriotism, faith, courage and generosity of spirit in a warm inviting atmosphere that is truly genuine and heartfelt.
Dinner and a show and smashmouth Big Ten Football. Sounds genuine and heartfelt to me.
One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's
You had me on board....
…..until you listed the names of towns that no one outside of Missouri would know. Kirksville?
Somehow I doubt the tv watching preferences of the fine people in Nowheresville Cape Girardeau is going to sway the Dark Lord Jim Delaney.
Anyway, I’m all in for the Nebraska add. Sign me up. Missouri? Meh. I hate both the KC & St Louis airports tremendously.
I imagine if Delaney and the BTN were around back 100 years ago
Indiana probably wouldn’t be in the Big Ten
by The JuggerNitt on Jun 9, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Good job Cairo.
You make a good argument — I like Missouri as well.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
Well done. Rec'd.
And this is what make blogging so much fun…
I currently live much closer to NYC than St. Louis, and maybe that’s part of my bias, but I would still prefer we take a shot at NYC. Each additional at this point greatly changes the dynamic in the conference. Adding missouri means playing teams I actually want to see significantly less often, and I think the benefit—although safe—seems somewhat low.
A lot of what you’re saying could pan out, but I’m not convinced MIssouri will ever be anything but another Minnesota to Penn State and their fans. Not that I’d rather play Rutgers—I wouldn’t—but I think they present a bigger upside in terms of the revenue Penn State can bring in for the AD while Missouri provide a saver amount with a much, much lower top-end.
As someone pointed out, you could include NJ in the potential market if you add ND and Rutgers. NJ’s population is 8.7M, Missouri’s is 6.0M. I’m sure there is overlap between that 8.7M and the NYC market, but we’re still talking about multiple times the total population.
Two interesting questions though, that you might be able to answer:
-What percentage of MIssouri is currently made up of either Missouri or B10 alums? I’m curious how many of the population would be interested in the BTN vs. whatever happens to the rest of the old Big 8/Big 12 schools.
-What’s the cable company landscape like? Getting all of those cities is going to be a lot easier if their all on one carrier, but if you’ve got 8 different carriers in all of those cities, I bet it becomes very difficult to get the whole basket because of the demographic in each town. I can’t claim to know the NYC/NJ market, but I suspect it’s relatively consolidated.
Well done, and although the post is fading fast I’ll add a link to this at the end of the NYC post for searchers in the futures, of which I suspect there will be several.
I know about your diabolical plan.
Attempt to respond to your questions
First off, thanks for your thoughtful response. I understand your concerns that Missouri is Minnesota in Black and Gold, but I feel Rutgers and Syracuse are virtually the same caliber of football institution. If there was a clear, strong candidate with a strong football tradition it would probably change my opinion.
I wholly agree that an Eastern presence would benefit Penn State, but the benefits to other members would be limited: it’s over 520 miles from Piscataway to the next closest Big Ten school in Columbus, Ohio. It’s a comparable 530 miles from Columbus to Columbia, Missouri—but you cross over a majority of the Big Ten market that way. If you’re Jim Delaney, would you rather provide a markedly positive impact on one school, or a moderately positive impact to multiple schools? Which would be easier to sell?
1) Missouri is pretty much entirely comprised of Missouri fans. When it comes to “TV Markets” it includes the affluent suburbs in eastern Kansas which have a strong presence of Kansas and K-State fans. Otherwise, the remaining fans would largely identify with Illinois, Iowa, or Nebraska.
2) I can only speak to the KC market on this one: it’s primarily Time Warner, as they have a monopoly in many cities in the market—if it goes the others will probably follow. Comcast has the second-biggest presence, followed by Charter, Everest, AT&T, Sunflower Cable, and a public fiber-optic cable utility in one community. The lynchpin is TWC.
Just to correct attendance numbers
Mizzou had an average home attendance of 64,120 in 2009, good enough for 28th in the country.
I don’t get the whole “MU has 50K fans” meme I keep seeing repeated. Maybe people are confusing us with the other black and gold school (CU, with a 54,000 seat stadium) or even – gasp – Kansas, with a capacity of 50,000. But I’ve been at Faurot Field with 71,000 to see Nebraska get gloriously thumped.
As a Big Ten alum, New Yorker in exile and life long Mets fan I just have to point out:
Very, very few people in NYC (or downstate NY) give a hoot about Rutgers or Syracuse. I would probably argue that there are more Penn State alums in NYC than RU or Cuse alums. I am quite sure there are more Big Ten alums in NYC than RU or Cuse alums (but maybe not RU and Cuse alums – try that in a venn diagram). Are they all rabid football fans, no, but enough to clamor for inclusion of the B10 network on the basic tier. Enough to guarantee a sellout of RU football for anybody except probably Purdue, Minnesota and maybe Iowa (I was heavily involved with the Big Apple Big Ten alumni group so this not a dig, I just have an idea of how big those schools NYC alumni bases are).
Second, there is no place known as “Flushing Point”. The Mets play in Flushing. The 7 train stop is known as (or at least used to be) Shea Stadium/Willets Point. It may be Citifield/Willets Point now, but they could have just dropped Willets Point.
If you want to get really, really technical,
Their stadium is in Flushing Meadows. Nobody talks about going to “Flushing Bay”.
Very well reasoned
Cairo- as a long time lurker, this post finally made me sign up for an account. A post combining Kirksville and Penn State? That’s worth finally deciding what screen name will give me some posting cred. This fanpost is well though out, and I think your numbers of Missouri fans are pretty reasonable. I too am shelling out the $4/month for the BTN in KC, prompting my wife to remind me repeatedly that I went to college in MO (parents, aunts/uncles/cousins PSU grads). However…
I just don’t feel like Mizzou is a prize for the Big Ten. It’s totally possible that they get an invite, but I feel like Delany has totally pwned them in all the expansion talk. I would love to be able to drive to Columbia for a game. People in KC would (maybe) finally know something about PSU other than “Joe Paterno doesn’t even wear a headset zOMG he’s so old!” I love Kansas City, I love Missouri, and think both are underappreciated in other markets, but all these arguments (and I’ve been making them to my friends since expansion was first brought up) aren’t enough to make Mizzou a “hr” addition.
That said, I still hope Mizzou is ultimately added and Ohio State Sucks.
by HuggingLJSr on Jun 10, 2010 11:10 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Excellent post
I’m glad my post got you to post your thoughts. My contention is that there is not a home run addition available when you exclusively look at NYC and Missouri. Notre Dame is a home run, Texas is a home run. Missouri does offer quite a few more positives than people initially consider.
All I did was shake LJ Sr.’s hand. It completely disappeared in his.
What's funny to me about the Mizzou-Nebraska comparisons
is that over the past 10 years, Mizzou has certainly done as well as or better than Nebraska in football. Nebraska hasn’t beaten a top-20 team since 2003, and Mizzou was ranked No. 1 in the country to end the 2007 season (ending at No. 4 after losing the Big 12 championship and then hammering Arkansas). But they’re a football “slam dunk” and we’re not. It’s somewhat maddening.
Anyhow, my prediction on some other Big 10 sites has been simple: Nebraska gives the Big 10 a “name” school but loses money overall; Missouri adds TV households and a rising football program.
Anyhow, thanks for the post defending Mizzou. I hope we wind up in the Big 10, but if not thanks for realizing what we’ve got.
Nebraska will always be Nebraska.
I’m interested to see how successful Missouri remains if they are no longer with the Texas schools and have more difficulty in recruiting there.
I don't know
I think recruiting is more based on what relationships you have with HS and coaches and less on pure geography. MU is just now making inroads into St. Louis schools after several coaches had bad relationships there. Plus we can always schedule OOC games in Texas — we could do home-and-aways with SMU, TCU, UNT, Houston, etc.
by jschooltiger on Jun 11, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
long term, and in general,
the relationships a college has with HS and coaches comes from the geography
by The JuggerNitt on Jun 11, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
But Billy Bob's 125 relatives from "xxx"town, Texas...
can’t “plan” to go to watch him in person if Mizzou is no longer making trips to play the Texas teams regularly.
Also, because I am a third grader at heart…Can we merge the first three schools you listed so that it becomes SMUTCUUNT? I didn’t see the commas when I first looked at it.

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