Football Outsiders: PSU 8th best team going into 2010

These rankings are based on projected strength, not projected results.

almost 2 years ago Cairo 9 comments 0 recs |

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Interesting comment about the fumbles recovered.

by PSUmob on Jul 1, 2010 3:21 PM EDT reply actions

Fascinating

I’ve never read there before….first impression was high. This was pretty weird to learn as well:

2. They were quite lucky last year. PSU only had a +6 turnover margin last year, but they recovered a whopping 69 percent of the fumbles that took place in their games. That figure was not only highest in the country last year, but it was the fourth-highest in the last five years. Recovering only 50 percent of the fumbles would have resulted in a loss of up to six extra turnovers. Those bounces are not likely to go PSU’s way a second straight season.

+6 isn’t a whole hell of a lot. I hope our secondary can pick up few more takeaways to combat this assumed return to scale of the luck factor on giveaways.

Crack is wac

by jtothep on Jul 1, 2010 3:57 PM EDT reply actions

There's two moving pieces here, which is why I refute the comment about PSU being "quite lucky."

Most of these statheads operate under the assumption that turnovers are completely random, which is something I don’t totally buy but whatever. (If they are: is every teams combined turnover margin +/-5 over the last 75 years? Because flipping a fair coin is random and if 120 teams do it 500 times each almost all of them are going to be damn close to 250. Maybe every team is right around zero, I honestly have no idea.)

So if (1) the number of fumbles caused/dropped is not skill but luck, and (2) the percentage of fumbles recovered is luck, then I’m not sure you can say we were “quite lucky.” It sounds like we were unlucky in that the other team didn’t drop the ball very often, but we’re lucky to get so many of them. Those seem like they should wash out.

I also wonder what they consider a fumble. Every muffed punt it technically a fumble and we probably “recovered” 15 or 16 of those last year. That’s just bad data, is all.

Overall, though, it’s really solid stuff, this is a very small gripe.

by KevinHD on Jul 1, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions

ha!

With you on all of that.

Crack is wac

by jtothep on Jul 1, 2010 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m convinced Michigan fans invented the notion that turnovers are completely random. Or at least, they used it as a defense all of the time.

Say at the end of the game, Michigan’s true freshman quarterback ignores an open guy in the flat and instead tries and fails to throw over Iowa’s safety, leading to a game sealing interception. That’s random?

"Now we can no longer hold back. It will be a terrible war." - Emperor Jim Delany I

by ReadingRambler on Jul 2, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions

"The harder you work, the luckier you get!"

Broadcasters have been saying for years that Penn State players are better prepared “mentally” for games. While they may be out “muscled”, or out “talented”, they are rarely out of position because of a wrong read or whatever.

Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
Vince Lombardi

by PaJoe on Jul 1, 2010 7:27 PM EDT reply actions