My Analysis & Prediction for Penn State.
by WeArePennState on Jul 27, 2010 10:48 PM EDT
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PrintLike a camel thirsting for water, I've read all the analyses out there about the linebackers, quarterback, the loss of Jared Odrick and how Penn State can do no better than 4th place in the big ten this year. Well I don't buy it. I think the Nits are going to surprise some folks. So breaking it down, this is what I see.
Defense:
The loss of AJ Wallace in the secondary, three outstanding linebackers and the aforementioned Mr. Odrick are pretty significant losses, of that there is no doubt. However, moving Chaz Powell to the secondary, added to the one more year of experience to a secondary that pretty much surprised everyone last year, I think the secondary is going to be at least as strong if not stronger than last year. I think the overall talent level of the linebacking core that is going to step in to fill some pretty big shoes could be better than the group that left, just lacking in experience. The defensive line, I believe will be at least as strong as last year, despite losing Odrick. More experience from the returnees and Devon Still taking over at DT will do a more than adequate job, giving a D-line that will be more balanced. Overall, I think this defense could possibly be better than last year's.
Offense:
No doubt about it, the quarterback situation is a big question mark, but the rest of the offense, including the O - line is solid. I'm a little nervous about the left side, but I think they will jell by the beginning of the season. I also believe that a quarterback will emerge from the crowd that will really surprise. My biggest worry is that he has difficulty getting that timing down with the receivers, or has difficulty recognizing defensive sets, thus allowing the opposing defenses to rush like sharks at a feeding frenzy, but his mobility will keep him out of serious trouble. I really think that our quarterback play will be more than adequate.
Special Teams:
Without a doubt, this is the one area that really concerns me, PSU was lousy at coverage and didn't scare anyone with their return game. The loss of Jeremy Boone will be huge and Collin Wagner has to improve both his distance and accuracy. My momma once said, "If you don't want to hear the answer, don't ask the question." So I won't ask who is gonna punt this year.
All in all, I think both the offense and defense will be able to compete with anyone in the league. The big question mark for me will be Special Teams. If they do well, this could be very good year, perhaps 11-1 or 10-2. If Special Teams disappoint, then 9-3 might be tough to achieve.
So my predictions:
Robert Bolden will emerge as the quarterback of choice. I believe that in true Joe Pa fashion, he just flat out has been downplaying QB so a fair chance can be given to all the candidates this fall.
Royster is going to have a banner year, with over 1,600 yards rushing and a surprise finalist for the Heisman.
The defense is going to rank among the top ten in the country in almost every team stat.
PSU will knock off Iowa this year. It will be close, but they will win.
The Lions might surprise Alabama in a game nobody expects them to be competitive in. This game will determine 11-1 or 10-2. I think a win is definitely possible.
Ohio State will just be too strong at home that late in the season.
The games:
Youngstown State (win; 45 - 10) There will be a lot of experimenting in this game.
Alabama (win; 23 - 21) It will be close and hard fought. Just something about a game where EVERYONE picks the obvious favorite. Call it a gut feeling if you will, but Special teams are going to come through to win it with a field goal.
Kent State (win; 31 - 17) This team will be better than a lot of folks think.
Temple (win; 28 - 17) Temple will surprise a lot of people this year and at 3 - 0, and a big win at Alabama, I suspect the Nits will be looking forward to Iowa.
Iowa (win; 17 - 14) It will be about payback.
Illinois (win; 35 - 13) Hitting stride now, two big wins under our belts.
Minnesota (win; 24 - 10) Close first half, then PSU pulls away.
Michigan (win; 35 - 17) Home, night, unofficial whiteout game, undefeated? Sorry Rich Rod, the stars aren't aligning this year. (on another note, I predict Michigan for about 4 - 8 or 5 - 7 this year)
Northwestern (win; 24 - 21) Emotional win against Michigan and looking ahead to Ohio State. This trap game will be close with PSU pulling out a close one at the end of the game.
Ohio State (lose; 21 - 31) Say it ain't so, Joe.
Indiana (win; 42 - 24) Indiana will score points this year, I just don't think they will stop anyone else from doing it.
Michigan State (win; 27 13) Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe that Michigan State has beaten Penn State at the Beav since we joined the Big Ten. Well, that isn't gonna change this year.
I cast the first vote for 11 -1
Whew, this was just going to be short.
So what is your guess for the year?
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10-2, Ohio State sucks, losses to Iowa (Stanzi = Automatic Davey O'Brian) and Alabama
Friend of the Pants since 2009.
by ReadingRambler on Jul 27, 2010 11:05 PM EDT reply actions
I think I'd like to change this to 9-3.
Northwestern has a garbage schedule and will be 8-0 when they play us. You just can’t stop that momentum.
Friend of the Pants since 2009.
by ReadingRambler on Jul 27, 2010 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
According to my NCAA 11
11 – 1: Loss to Ohio State 17-14.
by dontcallmescooter on Jul 27, 2010 11:15 PM EDT reply actions
According to my NCAA
10-2: Losses @ Alabama and OSU. But win the Orange Bowl in a match-up against Florida State.
I'm going with 10-2
Losses to Ohio State and Iowa. I really wanted to go 12-0, but that would be another jinx in my superstitious mind. I REALLY want that win over Alabama, though, so I’m thinking positively.
For the glory
You heard it here first:
12-0 and NC game, rematch with LSU.
That's a lot of points for a top 10 defense to give up
Must be those special team break downs. I’m going with 10-2 but each of the 12 is winnable.
You took the words right out of my mouth
I have a few quibbles with some of your smaller predictions (e.g. I don’t see Royster going for 1600 or being a Heisman finalist), but overall this is pretty much how I see the upcoming season too. Alabama’s defense will be vulnerable, especially if Dareus isn’t on the field. OSU is just too good in November though. Will 11-1 with the win at Bama be enough to get PSU into the NC game? I sure hope so—wouldn’t a rematch with OSU be great?
by newenglandnittanylion on Jul 28, 2010 12:30 AM EDT reply actions
A few thoughts:
1. I don’t see a scenario in which they don’t redshirt Bolden. Unless PJ really falls apart, I think you’ll see Newsome → McGloin → PJ with Bolden taking this year to practice.
2. Iowa will still be very good this season. I don’t see how you can say it should be a solid W when their strength (D-line) matches PSU’s apparent weakness (O-line and QB).
3. Bama’s defense might take a step back this year, but they’ll still be good enough to handle an inexperienced QB and a shuffled O-line. Plus, they have a scary run game that I’m thinking will just keep the ball in their hands anyway.
4. Opposing defenses will be keying in on the run. I don’t see Royster hitting much over 1,000 this year.
5. PSU’s defense should be its strength. There is a lot of experience there already, and a lot of talent potential as well. It’s the O-line, QB, special teams and kicking game that will need to really take a step up to meet your expectations.
I’m thinking 9-3. Losses to Bama and OSU, with a tossup between Iowa and some other unforeseen headache like Michigan or Temple (No, not jNW).
by smashtheguitar on Jul 28, 2010 12:51 AM EDT reply actions
I've been saying 9-3
and I’m sticking to it.
But I don’t think we lose to all 3 of our big road opponents; I really think we can knock off Iowa, but ‘Bama will beat us (narrowly) and I’ve got a bad feeling tOSU will run us over that late in the season. We drop a third game to someone we really shouldn’t lose to. I’m thinking jNW or scUM.
0-12
Here’s the thing, Joe is old. Also, we don’t have a QB! Don’t forget we lose all the players non-PSU fans can name on defense. Play it close with YSU, but they pull it out on a last second 99 yard fumble return off a fumbled snap by Shane McGregor. Final score 9-8 (TD and safety for YSU, 4 safeties for PSU). Everything after that is a blowout.
Joe will screw the season up
being old now…
but 9-3, losing in T-town, C-bus, and a trap game somewhere
everyone does
lol 9-8
I can see that
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
by Chris McKeown on Jul 29, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm on the 9-3 bandwagon as well
I think the offense will eventually be OK, but will take some time to establish itself. In 2005, our offense did not find itself until the second half of the Cinci game when they finally established the big play threat, which in turn opened everything else up. For the 2010 version, I think the second half of the Cinci game will occur in the Kent State contest. ’Bama will be one of those games where we are kind of in it for most of the game (meaning only down by a score or two), but never really find any offense IMO (ending up something like L 23-6).
As for the QB situation, I think Newsome starts and the young Jones sees time, eventually ending up in a Casey / Thompson type dynamic by the end of the season.
Holy Gawd !!!
Some of youse guys are starting to depress me and I don’t depress easily.
jNW?
Why in the world does anyone think they’re going to defeat PSU? Kafka is gone, kids. Didn’t you watch last season’s game?
by smashtheguitar on Jul 28, 2010 11:19 AM EDT reply actions
Dan Persa is good!
How do Pennsylvanians not remember this? He threw the deciding TD pass at Iowa last year.
by gumbercules on Jul 28, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Dan Persa broke Ricky Stanzi's leg (And thus, the mental will of the entire state of Iowa)?
Friend of the Pants since 2009.
by ReadingRambler on Jul 28, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
They must read a lot of David Jones
He was all about Northwestern last year. I’m sure this year he will predict something in the 6-6 range, with losses to ’Bama, OSU, Michigan, MSU, Northwestern, and Iowa.
That's a home game
If it was away, I’d buy into the theory a bit more, but with the loss of Kafka and some of their defensive stars, I think Persa might struggle playing his first game in Beaver Stadium
by dawsonPSU10 on Jul 31, 2010 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I've got two different predictions...
Without PSU bias, looking at the schedule as a college football fan, I see 9-3. I don’t think we’ll lose all three of the big away games. I really think they’ll take one from Iowa or ’Bama.
10-2 or 11-1. They blow through the schedule with the only hiccup being Ohio State and maybe ‘Bama because of the required “breaking in the QB” issue. I believe PSU will “upset” (I don’t believe that to be the case, but to walk the same line as the pundits and PSU naysayers I typed it) the Hawkeyes.
You're cool.
Friend of the Pants since 2009.
by ReadingRambler on Jul 28, 2010 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
8-4
Clark spoiled us, and it doesn’t take much of a drop off at QB for the offense to sputter, and the defense to be on the field all day. You can have the best defense in the country but if your special teams and offense aren’t doing their job, we’re going to give up a lot of points. QB inconsistency is a killer, because just as the team starts to pick up some momentum and get some confidence we’ll give up a pick 6 or let a long drive end in a punt.
So on a good day I’ll go 10-2 for this team with Newsome being the 2nd coming of Robinson, but today isn’t a good day for me, so I’m 8-4 with a loss to Michigan at home. Bleh.
Do you want the mustache on, or off?
Too bad.
You smell.
Friend of the Pants since 2009.
by ReadingRambler on Jul 28, 2010 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Being the pessimist, too
Last year I was feeling a 9-3 season and was pleasantly surprised with the 10-2 record (though the comprehensiveness of the losses sucked). I’m going with 8-4. Buy low, sell high as they say. There are 3 road games we’re underdogs and even if we pick up one of those inconsistency will cost us in one or two other games. For now I’m tempering expectations.
I would love to be optimistic
But it’s way too easy to sit here in July and say “win, win, win, win, win”
There’s probably going to be 1 game against a team no one suspects will be that big of a problem in which PSU is going to have to fight for their lives. I really don’t know about Alabama… would that be incredibly awesome? YES! Do I think an inexperienced QB will go into ’Bama territory and knock off the #1 team and defending national champions? No. I do believe PSU beats OSU or Iowa this year.. probably Iowa. Then I think a loss against another team like Michigan or Northwestern.
We’re going to be in for a treat in 2011 and 2012, though. But let’s focus on 2010 for now.
"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III
My prediction
- Ohio State 11-1, 7-1 in conference
- Penn State 10-2, 7-1
- Iowa 10-2, 7-1
- Michigan State 9-3, 6-2
- Purdue 9-3, 5-3
- Wisconsin 7-5, 3-5
- Indiana 6-6, 2-6
- Northwestern 6-6, 2-6
- Michigan 5-7, 3-5
- Illinois 5-7, 2-6
- Minnesota 1-11, 0-8
I see a little bit of Illinois 2009 in them.
Lots of preseason hype, but do they have what it takes to put together a great season? I look at that brutal mid-season schedule (at MSU, Minnesota, Ohio State, at Iowa, at Purdue) and see them 5-4.
What? Actually evaluating
the team and schedule? Take your wizardry somewhere else!
by PSUinBOSSton on Jul 30, 2010 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A little bit of 2009 Illinois?
How about just saying they’ll be pretty much every Wisconsin team from the past 3-4 years? Overhyped, leading to mediocrity and a Bielema FAIL at least once (although they were a bit of a surprise last year when I was sure Bielema was going to get the axe after another mediocre season)
by dawsonPSU10 on Jul 31, 2010 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Right now, I feel like it's
Iowa 11-1, 7-1 in conference, loss to Penn State.
(Co champs!) Ohio State 11-1, 7-1 in conference, loss to Iowa.
The big question marks for Iowa are the offensive line and the linebackers. It is not ridiculous to assume that since Iowa usually has good linebackers, they should be fine especially considering their talent on the defensive line. As for the offensive line, the game will be played in late November, so there is a chance that barring injuries, Iowa’s line will be good. The fact is that their line really wasn’t that great last year. Their run game struggled from mid-October. It’s really amazing they scored 17 points against Ohio State last year. This year, the talent is there, the only question is experience. I highly doubt they’ll be good enough to go undefeated, I can’t sell myself on Bielema over Ferentz, I don’t quite buy the Ohio State hype, so I guess I have to pick a loss to Penn State but I’m not confident there. Iowa will try to force Ohio State into a defensive slugfest. Iowa gave up a lot of rushing yards to Ohio State last year because their tackles (Klug and Ballard) were undersized. Now Ballard is supposed to be around 300, Klug 280. If Iowa can shut down the run and forces OSU into a 13-6 or 17-10 kind of game, Pryor has to play smart and if his best game was the Rose Bowl (He made some great plays but he made some truly stupid plays. Luck and Oregon’s slightly questionable defense have to be taken into account), I don’t think I’d trust him.
Penn State 10-2, 7-1, losses to Alabama, Northwestern, Ohio State. We’ll be good, maybe not as good as our record, but good. I almost picked NW to beat us in a moment of doubt, but I may go to that game and Penn State has never lost any game that I attended.
Purdue 8-4, 5-3, losses to Notre Dame, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. They’re going to lose to Notre Dame because of a turnover or two. Afterwards, everyone will say it’s such a shame because they looked better. Ohio State won’t be within single digits, but it won’t be a massacre. Wisconsin and MSU will both be close games. This team will be better than their record, and any optimistic Boilermaker fan will say they were only so and so points away from undefeated.
Wisconsin 8-4, 4-4, losses to Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, and Northwestern. I just can’t convince myself to have faith in these guys. It was even difficult picking them to defeat UM.
Northwestern 7-5, 4-4, losses to Vanderbilt, Minnesota, Purdue, Iowa, and Penn State. The opening game loss to Vanderbilt is obvious. They will also hand Minnesota their only conference win. These are very NW things to do. They will finally lose to Iowa. I am not convinced they’ll be better than last year’s team.
Michigan State 7-5, 3-5, losses to Michigan, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, and Penn State.
Michigan 6-6, 3-5, losses to Notre Dame, Iowa, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. I don’t think they’ll be as good as their record would indicate. It’s really hard for me to believe Michigan can do any better than 6-6 with what is basically the same offense only with two sophomore running quarterbacks and that "defense". I wouldn’t be shocked if they beat Wisconsin, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they lose to Illinois. Hawkeye State pointed out yesterday that Michigan has usually had at least one "Where did that come from?" loss every year over the last decade. Purdue might be too good to be that loss.
Illinois 4-8, 2-6, wins over Southern Illinois, Northern Illinois, Michigan State and Minnesota
Indiana 5-7, 1-7, losses to everyone on their conference schedule except Illinois.
Minnesota 2-10, 1-7, wins over South Dakota and Northwestern.
Friend of the Pants since 2009.
by ReadingRambler on Jul 29, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
COUNTING FAIL!
Penn State 10-2, 7-1, losses to Alabama, Northwestern, Ohio State.
@EpicTripod
SBN - Pittsburgh
Success With Honor
by Jeff Junstrom on Jul 29, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
No, proofreading fail.
Friend of the Pants since 2009.
by ReadingRambler on Jul 29, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Northwestern
The opening game loss to Vanderbilt is obvious.
Is it? I would figure NW could easily win that game, particularly with the upheaval in their coaching staff.
It's Northwestern.
Sure, there’s upheaval, but the game is in Nashville and isn’t it possible that Vandy could rally around their new staff and win a signature game against a top tier NW team?
Friend of the Pants since 2009.
by ReadingRambler on Jul 29, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Penn State has never lost any game that I attended.
Whaa??? Really? I wish I could say the same.
How many games have you attended?
Come down to Alabama, Rambler!
We might need your here if your attendance means a win!
For the glory
Could be true for me save Iowa last year
My first game was OSU 2005
Nobody makes me bleed my own blood, Nobody!
Not very many, admittedly.
Three or four. But my Dad can say the same, and he’s been to more games than I.
Friend of the Pants since 2009.
by ReadingRambler on Jul 29, 2010 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions
After last year...
I’m thinking I should just stay away from PSU games. Maybe take my destructve, negative mojo somewhere that I hate.
Hmmm, anyone have some suggestions for a place that deserves 20 years of drought and locust infestations?
One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's
1. Columbus, Ohio
2. Ann Arbor, Michigan
3. Lane Kiffin’s underwear
"Every player we have, someone—maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone—poured their life and soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world." - Joe Paterno
by Horse N Buggy on Jul 30, 2010 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Those aren't locusts in Lane Kiffin's underwear
They’re called crabs. Not that I’d know, you’re the expert on stuff in people’s underwear…
/ducks, shields eyes
by dawsonPSU10 on Jul 31, 2010 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It shouldn't.
As for actually answering your question, my answer is “I don’t know, but I’m not sure”.
Friend of the Pants since 2009.
by ReadingRambler on Jul 30, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
12-0
Ingram? DEAD!
Stanzi? DEAD!
Pryor? DEAD!!! The Shogun is right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. We gotta take these bastards.
Now we could do it with conventional weapons that could take years and cost millions of lives. No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part.
AND WE’RE JUST THE GUYS TO DO IT.
by Tailgate Shogun on Jul 29, 2010 8:00 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
"was it over when the germans bombed peral harbor"
"I love it when a plan comes together!" Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith
by psu in the w-b on Jul 29, 2010 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
"Not everybody's the perfect person in the world. I mean everyone kills people, murders people, steals from you, steals from me, whatever." -- Terrelle Pryor
by OnwardStateFanatic on Jul 30, 2010 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
HERE, HERE!
/ Nedimire’d
" When you cross that Blue Line, you are mine...Across the Blue Line, it's all football. " " And what you need to do in your life is paint Blue Lines everywhere. " - Joe Paterno 2009
by BlueWhiteLife on Jul 31, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Newsome....rrRRRUNNING
Does anyone else think that our plans w/ Newsome are to run more w/ him and pass less? I think they had him drop back in the BW game for practice, but I fully expect to see an offense similar to Oregon’s or WVU.
The SpreadHD will be converted into lots of zone reads and short passes. He may be a 1500 yd passer and 1000 rusher this year.
I think Royster’s production will go up substantially as well for one reason: Newsome can and will be running a lot. DC17 was great and people attack our coaching for not letting him run – w/ the exception of on the goaline – last year….I understand why he didn’t run, we didn’t have a back up. This allowed defenses to key on Royster in running situations. Now, with Newsome scrambling all over it should open things up for Royster, more similar to 2 yrs ago when they let DC17 run the ball.
I think it will be a mix
But I don’t think they’ll be as protective with running him as they were with Clark. If Newsome and McGloin are really on equal playing terms right now, they know they have a capable backup should one or the other get hurt.
by dawsonPSU10 on Jul 31, 2010 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
If KN
makes progress and is even at a 50% completion rating…We Are…going to be quite balanced…
" When you cross that Blue Line, you are mine...Across the Blue Line, it's all football. " " And what you need to do in your life is paint Blue Lines everywhere. " - Joe Paterno 2009
by BlueWhiteLife on Jul 31, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Hell, he may even get mentioned for the Heisman with stats like that!
Pryor gets Heisman hype and he’s got a career 50 something completion %.
/totally joking, we’d get dumped on by the media for having a PSU QB with Pryor stats
by dawsonPSU10 on Jul 31, 2010 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the idea
Friend of the Pants since 2009.
by ReadingRambler on Aug 1, 2010 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
We thought a lot of the same with Clark coming in as the starter in 2008.
Everything we saw prior to that was basically running the ball (Alamo Bowl). I reserve judgment on KNew’s passing ability until actually seeing him in a game where we gameplanned for him (ie not just garbage time).
I do think we will run more, though, just because we can, and that is a good thing. I definitely think we ran Clark less last year because of the lack of a true backup threat.
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 2, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
We thought a lot of the same with Clark coming in as the starter in 2008.
Everything we saw prior to that was basically running the ball (Alamo Bowl). I reserve judgment on KNew’s passing ability until actually seeing him in a game where we gameplanned for him (ie not just garbage time).
I do think we will run more, though, just because we can, and that is a good thing. I definitely think we ran Clark less last year because of the lack of a true backup threat.
by The JuggerNitt on Aug 2, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel like a prophet
I wrote this some time ago, and reading the tidbits coming out of the first weeks of fall practice and I feel really good about some of my predictions.
Robert Bolden as Quarterback.
Defensive unit better than last year.
Linebackers more talented than last year, just inexperienced.
I’m feeling pretty goooooood.
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