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RBs by the numbers

 

Playing with PSU’s RBs and their numbers; what is your conclusion?

 

Avg YPC        YSU                Ala                  Kent                Overall                        4th Q Adj*

Royster            4.1                   3.6                   3.9                   3.87                          3.87

Green              5.3                   2.6                   5.4                   4.72                           4.60

Redd               6.7                   5.2                   4.0                   5.00                           3.80

 

*4th Q Adj = reduces 4th Quarter carries to 75% of their full value. I figure that 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarter carries are mostly against starters and/or guys that aren’t as tired, although I would think our line would have back-ups and/or tired guys as well. Anyway, this takes into account the argument that Redd’s carries mostly in the 4th Quarter.

 

Player              Outliers Adjusted**   Consistency***                      

Royster            3.36                             .8682                          

Green              4.11                             .8707                          

Redd               4.42                             .8840                          

 

**Outliers Adjusted = removing top/bottom 10% outliers; this works out to top/bottom three for Royster, two for Green, and one for Redd based on their # of carries

-so in Green’s case two of his carries for zero yards against Kent, his 18 yard carry against Kent, and his 12 yard carry against YSU were removed.

 

***Consistency = taking the Outliers Adjusted YPC and real YPC as a ratio helps us determine consistency; i.e. did Green just break off a 44 yard carry that bumps his overall YPC up (he didn’t). The higher the number the more “consistent” the YPC is.

 

Player              Poor Runs^       Poor Run%^^      Good Runs^^^           Good Run%^^^^

Royster            17                     55%                    10                                32%

Green              10                     45%                     9                                  41%

Redd               7                       50%                     6                                  43%

 

^Poor Runs = the total number of runs between (-2) and 3 yards; does not account for goal line/short yardage

^^Poor Run% = the % of carries meeting the above criteria

^^^Good Runs = the total number of runs of 5+ yards

^^^^Good Run% = the % of carriers meeting the above criteria

 

My conclusions:

  1. -Green is getting the most bang for our buck; good overall YPC, the best YPC when you account for 4th Q carries, and he only goes for 3 yards or less 45% while getting 5+ yards 41% of the time. He is slightly more consistent than Royster, which I found surprising. I picture Green as being more Barry Sanders to Royster’s Emmitt Smith; nothing, nothing, big(ger) vs. 3 and a cloud of dust.
  2. -At this time, we might be overrating Redd especially if you buy into the 4th Q thing as 11 of his 14 carriers were in the 4th Q. Also, his YPC is declining as he is getting more carries and earlier carries. However, his consistency is pretty good both when adjusting for outliers and when looking at good vs. poor carries.
  3. -Royster – when you adjust Redd’s carries by 4th Q then he and Royster are pretty similar in performance. That said, Royster’s carries are less consistent than Green or Redd, he has more poor carries with less good carries, and of the three, his overall YPC is the most affected by outliers.
  4. -The O-line is awful when run blocking – we are averaging 4.39 YPC which is good for the NFL, but not for PSU against the three teams we have played this year. If you take out ‘Bama the YPC only goes up to 4.65 YPC. More indicative of the poor line play is the fact that 51% of our carries go for three yards or less while only 37% go for five yards or more. This says to me that when the backs are getting yards, it is because they are making something happen, not because the line is blocking well.
  5. -Poor blocking downfield – the WRs don’t get out of this one. PSU has only three carries for over fifteen yards and eleven carries for over nine yards. That means that 73% of the time the backs are getting to the 2nd level there are no downfield blocks. More importantly, 100% of the time, no one is blocking the safety or last man on the field. Is that the WR fault? Or are the backs not making that last man miss?
  6. -longest run from scrimmage for the RBs is 18 yards by green against Kent. Royster and Redd both went for 11 against ‘Bama, and Royster and Redd both went for 13 against YSU.

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