Just the Stats: Penn State vs Purdue

My malicious coup to wrest control of this post away from Jeff was successful.

Okay, it wasn't as interesting as that. Jeff is refocusing his efforts on recruiting and interviews. Stuff I'm not a big fan of writing myself, so it work out. What also works out here is that I absolutely love stats. This will be a match made in football heaven.

Penn St. Nittany Lions (5-1, 2-0 Big Ten) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (3-2, 1-0 Big Ten)
12 p.m., October 15, 2011
Beaver Stadium (Capacity: 106,572)

Penn State Value (Nat'l Rank) Value (Nat'l Rank) Purdue
Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 162 (53)
142.8 (59) Rushing Defense (ypg) Push
Passing Offense (ypg) 212.17 (82)
203 (32) Passing Defense (ypg) PurdueP_mediumPurdueP_medium
Pass Efficiency 112.3 (101)
125.31 (74) Pass Efficiency Defense PurdueP_medium
Total Offense (ypg) 374.17 (81)
345.8 (36) Total Defense (ypg) PurdueP_medium
Scoring Offense (ppg) 21.5 (93)
20.6 (30) Scoring Defense (ppg) PurdueP_mediumPurdueP_medium
Rushing Defense (ypg) 93.17 (17)
215.4 (20) Rushing Offense (ypg) Push
Passing Defense (ypg) 157.67 (5)
196.8 (93) Passing Offense (ypg) Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Pass Efficiency Defense 89.81 (4)
159.8 (14) Pass Efficiency Push
Total Defense (ypg) 250.83 (4)
412.2 (50) Total Offense (ypg) Psulogo_medium
Scoring Defense (ppg) 10.5 (5)
32.6 (42) Scoring Offense (ppg) Psulogo_medium
Net Punting Yds 34.52 (102)
8.90 (49) Punt Return Yds PurdueP_mediumPurdueP_medium
Punt Return Yds 6.26 (79)
42.58 (6) Net Punting Yds PurdueP_mediumPurdueP_medium
Kickoff Return Yds 19.89 (92)
25.67 (113)
Kickoff Return Defense Push
Kickoff Return Defense 20.74 (54)
23.18 (34) Kickoff Return Yds Push
Turnover Margin +0.5 (T-36)
+0.4 (T-43) Turnover Margin Push
Penalty Yds/Game 44.83 (33)
74.0 (T-114) Penalty Yds/Game Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Sacks 2.17 (42) 2.8 (102) Sacks Allowed Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Sacks Allowed 0.83 (19) 1.00 (107) Sacks Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Redzone Offense (%) 0.75 (T-95) 0.88 (T-90) Redzone Defense (%) Push
Redzone Defense (%) 1.0 (T-119) 0.84 (T-52) Redzone Offense (%) PurdueP_mediumPurdueP_medium
Redzone TD % 0.47 0.72 Redzone TD % Defense PurdueP_medium
Redzone TD % Defense 0.54 0.69 Redzone TD % Psulogo_medium
3rd Down Conv. % 39.33 (T-77) 36.99 (49) 3rd Down Defense % PurdueP_medium
3rd Down Defense % 34.02 (35)
43.24 (50) 3rd Down Conv. % Push
1st Downs Per Game 20 (74) 20.20 (T-67) 1st Downs Allowed PG Push
1st Downs Allowed PG 14.67 (T-7) 22.80 (34) 1st Downs Per Game Psulogo_medium

 

Difference <25 in National Rank = Push

Difference >25 in National Rank =   Psulogo_medium

Difference >50 in National Rank =   Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference >75 in National Rank =   Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference >100 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

The "Old" Mike's note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgement.

More analysis after the jump.  

On the surface, there are an uncomfortable number of "P" up there. But comparing the two teams' opposition, it's not all that difficult to see that Purdue's stats are inflated (or deflated) to make them look better than they are. The Boilers' three wins this year came against... wait for it... Middle Tennessee State, Southeast Missouri State (FCS), and a Minnesota team so horrible, swapping them out for Temple would upgrade the Big Ten overnight. The two losses for Purdue tell the rest of the story, where they lost at Rice and were blown out by Notre Dame.

Just to hammer home the difference in strength of schedule, here is a side-by-side comparison of each team's best-to-worst opponents:

Penn State Purdue
#2 Alabama (L)
Notre Dame (L)
Temple (W)
Rice (L)
Iowa (W)
MTSU (W)
Eastern Michigan (W)
SE Missouri St (FCS) (W)
Indiana St (FCS) (W)
-

The fact that Iowa is the third-best team on Penn State's schedule says enough about the level of competition the two teams have faced so far this season. Alabama is dropping 30 points on the SEC each week like it's the MAC; Temple is good enough to beat about half the BCS automatic qualifiers; and Iowa's passing attack was torching opponents with ease... except when those teams faced Penn State's defense.

Helping Purdue's case up in the chart is also that Penn State's offense has been epically inefficient at scoring points this year. It doesn't take much to be statistically better than Penn State on offense.

Lastly, Penn State has given up points every time an opponent enters the red zone. But you see, despite those two "P" that suggest Purdue has the advantage here, the Nittany Lions red zone defense is probably the most misleading statistic you'll see in college football. Not only has Penn State only allowed 11 total drives to cross its 20 yard line, but the Nittany Lions defense has not allowed a single touchdown to be scored against it from outside the red zone.

What else do you see in these stats? Let's discuss...

Be sure to become a fan of BSD on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter!

SB Nation Featured Video
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Black Shoe Diaries

You must be a member of Black Shoe Diaries to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Black Shoe Diaries. You should read them.

Join Black Shoe Diaries

You must be a member of Black Shoe Diaries to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Black Shoe Diaries. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker