Three & Out: Buckle Up Bye Week
by Mike Pettigano on Oct 31, 2011 10:30 AM EDT
in Football
Email
PrintA few thoughts heading into a nice, relaxing bye week...
1. Worth The Rest? Joe Paterno's teams have done quite well in games following a bye. Since 1980, Penn State is a very nice 17-9 coming off a bye. Five of those 30 seasons did not have a bye in the schedule (1983, 1988, 2006, 2007, 2009). Of course, Penn State has been a pretty good football program since 1980, so it's likely the .607 win percentage off bye weeks is more due to the Nittany Lions being favored to win, rather than getting the extra week to prepare. But since I'm part of the Amateur Blog Mob, what else to I have to do on a Monday morning? So for your entertainment, I've compiled the historical data for bye weeks from the past 30 Penn State football seasons. The results are interesting:
| Penn State Record Following Bye Weeks 1980-2010 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Previous Game | Following Bye | Result |
| 2010 | L | at Minnesota | W |
| 2009 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2008 | W | at Iowa | L |
| 2007 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2006 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2005 | W | at Michigan State | W |
| 2004 | L | vs Iowa | L |
| 2003 | L | at Iowa | L |
| 2002 | W | vs Nebraska | W |
| 2001 | L | at Northwestern | W |
| 2000 | L | vs Illinois | W |
| 1999 | W | at Iowa | W |
| 1998 | W | at Ohio State | L |
| 1997 | W | at Northwestern | W |
| 1996 | W | at Michigan | W |
| 1995 | L | vs Michigan | W |
| 1994 | W | vs Ohio State | W |
| 1993 | L | at Ohio State | L |
| 1992 | L | at Notre Dame | L |
| 1991 | W | at Pittsburgh | W |
| 1990 | W | vs Temple | W |
| 1989 | W | vs Alabama | L |
| 1988 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 1987 | L | vs West Virginia | W |
| 1986 | W | at Boston College | W |
| 1985 | W | vs Alabama | W |
| 1984 | W | at Notre Dame | L |
| 1983 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 1982 | W | at Alabama | L |
| 1981 | W | at Nebraska | W |
| 1980 | W | at Texas A&M | W |
| Off a Win: | 12-5(.705) | ||
| Off a Loss: | 5-4(.555) | ||
| Home: | 7-2(.777) | ||
| Away: | 10-7(.588) | ||
| Overall Average: | 17-9(.607) | ||
There are many outside factors that go into these numbers. But when Penn State comes off a win, it's generally a good thing heading into the bye. If the following game is at home, even better. And considering how poor the perception may be of Penn State's success on the road, the winning record in away games following bye weeks is pretty impressive. Let's hope these trends continue this year.
A Time To Heal... This team is tired, dead tired. No better example of this is the one-man offense known as Silas Redd. The poor kid was supposed to carry a lighter load against Illinois, with Joe Paterno even mentioning so during the week. Redd was carrying the ball 25 times a game during the Big Ten schedule. That's tough sledding for even the best backs, which Redd happens to be one. This isn't to say Redd can't handle or doesn't want the job. He's probably the best-conditioned player on the team. But physical limits are always present.
Redd was supposed to carry about 15 times against Illinois. Final number of attempts: 30. That's not just a few more. That's DOUBLE the number of expected carries. Chris addressed a bit of the running back situation in his recap this morning, how it's not really making any sense as to who gets to spell Redd in any particular game.
But Redd is just the example. Derek Moye is still hurting, even though his heroics helped bail out the offense against Illinois. Joe Suhey is still sidelined. And you've got to expect that the offensive and defensive lines are absolutely gassed at this point of the season, especially Devon Still and Jordan Hill.
This is the absolute best week this season for a bye.
At least someone is listening... I have my opinions pretty much set on Stewart Mandel. They are similar to most MSM pundits. But in a rare moment of clarity, someone--anyone--is finally catching on to the idea that a strong defense might just be a better option than a strong offense:
Underrated: Penn State (AP: No. 16; Coaches': No. 15)
What's the difference between 8-1 Penn State and 7-1 Arkansas, which both suffered their sole loss to No. 2 Alabama? The Nittany Lions win with defense, not offense. Period.
I've been wondering myself about why Arkansas has been given so much more clout than Penn State in the rankings. The Razorbacks and Nittany Lions share Alabama as a common opponent. Arkansas lost by 24; Penn State lost by 16. And don't give me the argument that Pig Sooie's schedule is tougher. Their best win was over now-plummeting Texas A&M (which I said over and over was overrated because it doesn't play defense), and had to squeak by Mississippi and Vanderbilt (VANDERBILT!) last week.
Happy Monday, everyone. And Happy 8-1!
Be sure to become a fan of BSD on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter!
63 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Arkansas may remove 2004 Ole Miss
as the worst 10-win SEC team ever
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
2004 Ole Miss?
2003 Ole Miss lost to Texas Tech, Memphis, and LSU, but beat the worst Alabama team of the decade, upset Auburn, and somehow managed to lose to Memphis worse than they did to LSU.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
Follow @GSchofield50
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 31, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
My bad, you are correct
so mediocre I couldn’t even remember the year
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
It makes me laugh so much
To think that Ole Miss fired David Cutcliffe because he didn’t win enough. He had four winning seasons in five years, which hadn’t been done by an Ole Miss coach since the fucking 1930s. Then, he gets replaced by ED ORGERON, who was then replaced by HOUSTON NUTT.
Pete Boone really does deserve a pink slip for his efforts.
He's a robot sent to destroy Ole Miss athletics
I may agree with him that Cutcliffe was nothing special. When you have a future Super Bowl winning QB and a putrid SEC West, you would think that you’d win the division at least once. Or come close more than once. He didn’t.
But at the same time, yeah. Firing Cutcliffe would have been like PSU firing ED after the 2010 season. Dumb.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
Houston Nutt had almost twice as many SEC wins in his first season (5)
as Ed Orgeron had in 3 (3 wins in 3 years).
BUT OMG ORGERON COULD RECRUIT!
/the man squandered Patrick Willis, so YES, he deserves to die and I hope he burns in hell!
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
Follow @GSchofield50
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 31, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with everything in this post.
Especially about the bye coming at a perfect time— just before a grueling home stretch, and just after an absolute slugfest of a game in cold weather.
Grueling home stretch?
Don’t we just have Nebraska left?
"It's never a bad thing thing to vote for the suckiness of tOSU." -RWReese
Follow @Paige2PSU
I realize now the ambiguity of that statement.
I meant it more as in “home stretch of the season” rather than a literal home stretch.
My fault.
Got it.
I was reading it literally. I should know better! LOL!
"It's never a bad thing thing to vote for the suckiness of tOSU." -RWReese
Follow @Paige2PSU
Mandel...
the most interesting section of his article is the one on Oklahoma St.’s defense. Penn State fans have been making his argument since 1994.
Vamonos Mantequilla Vamonos!
by Esteban d' Amur on Oct 31, 2011 10:56 AM EDT reply actions
I like Mandel
if nothing else, he hates Craig James and is not afraid to say so
"Rabble rabble rabble; fire Joe; snarky meme; rude nickname; rabble rabble rabble
What's that?
"I wouldn’t trust Craig James to report on sixth-grade volleyball." Stewart Mandel on Craig James, who allegedly killed five hookers while at SMU.
*VanDERPbilt
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
Follow @GSchofield50
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 31, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
You know what they say about people living in glass houses ...
they should really work on their 2-minute, prevent defense.
by kijana's acl on Oct 31, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Prevent defenses don't work, asshole.
And thank you for reminding me of that horrible horrible game.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
Follow @GSchofield50
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 31, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
WHAT DO YOU THINK WE WERE SAYING FOR THAT ENTIRE FUCKING BALLGAME?!
Chryst is an idiotic genius. For someone so smart, he does a LOT of really stupid things.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
Follow @GSchofield50
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 31, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I often feel this way about Brian Schottenheimer, who at times designs truly original and impressive plays.
But he’s the streakiest playcaller ever and it watching it is painful.
You without me is like Harold Melvin without the Blue Notes . . . you'll never go platinum.
#OccupyESPN
by Adam Collyer on Oct 31, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
It was the Defensive Coordinator's fault
that both Safeties completely ignored the O$U receiver run past them. I don’t really know what they were thinking, coming up to support the run? Miller was a good 20 yards in front of them and was surrounded by Wiscy defenders. As my budy said, “both of those players should be cut, on the spot. Get their own ride back to Wisconsin”
"I don’t know what he’s done differently, whether he’s eating differently or Sue is making him happier, but he’s definitely a different coach out there" Devon Still
Marcus Cromartie was the first guy to fuck it up.
But even then, Shelton Johnson could have saved things…had he not idiotically bought Miller scrambling and ignored the guy WHO HAD GOTTEN BEHIND HIM. HOW DO YOU LET THAT HAPPEN?!
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
Follow @GSchofield50
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 31, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
That's what we were yelling at the TV
I mean, come on! In a prevent defense, you are supposed to PREVENT somebody from getting behind you, that’s the only way to lose. Yet, they both just left him go. He caught the ball like he was catching a punt. And it’s not like it was a bullet, the ball was a floater. Terrible.
"I don’t know what he’s done differently, whether he’s eating differently or Sue is making him happier, but he’s definitely a different coach out there" Devon Still
And now, Braxton Miller enters immortality after one game.
Nice work Shelton Johnson… Idiot.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
Follow @GSchofield50
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 31, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
What's up with Moye?
-Is he still hurting? It didn’t show on Saturday as he blew past that ILL CB to draw the PI.
-Also, why didn’t we see more Green/Dukes last week?
Hopefully Joe addresses these things in the presser.
I remember seeing Green in several times
but mostly on passing downs. Or maybe I imagined it all.
I'm on the Internet cause I'm an Internet thug.
Follow @134Lounge
Because they seem to think that Redd can join in the Heisman hunt
mid-season. Ha ha ha ha. Seriously though…I heard Dukes is in the doghouse for some reason. I have NO idea why Beachum & Green were so absent.
Silas Redd is 5th in total attempts in D, 6th in total yards rushing but only averages 5.15 yards per attempt so is 100+ in that category. He’s 46th in TD (mostly because PSU is trying to hit the record for most wins with fewest points in a season). He’s 14th in attempts per game
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
any idea what this record actually is?
"They stalk their prey to within two or three great leaps and then launch a lightning-fast charge, striking their prey. Victims are most often killed by suffocation with a prolonged bite..."--Hinterland Who's Who
I've been trying to find it...
get a lot of MOST points scored but no one seems to care about LEAST points scored.
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
essentially the same thing though
Formerly known as kmart93
@kmart93
Black Shoe Diaries
by Kyle_Martin on Oct 31, 2011 1:47 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Yeah, but here is the one I meant to post
Green has the right arm held
I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not sure.
by PaJoe on Oct 31, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
This needs to be posted on the Illini site.
Might shut up some of the whiners who dispute the validity of that PI call. Pretty clear it was the right call — esp. when two officials tossed their hankies on that play.
"Make haste to reassure us, I beg you, and tell us that our fellow citizens understand us, support us, and protect us as we ourselves are protecting the glory of the Empire.
"If it should be otherwise, if we should have to leave our bleached bones on these desert sands in vain, then beware the fury of the Legions."
by PSU_Lions_84 on Oct 31, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn, that's pretty clear to me.
If he doesn’t hold that right arm, Moye comes down with this pass.
Say what you will about his decision making processes, but that ball was exactly where it needed to be in the end.
by psuwxman on Oct 31, 2011 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
excellent!
The president of my company is an Illini alum and was crying about this today. I just sent him this pic.
I may get fired but at least I will be right
"Rabble rabble rabble; fire Joe; snarky meme; rude nickname; rabble rabble rabble
by letsgopsu on Oct 31, 2011 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I've stopped questioning the MSM
and just come to accept the fact that they’ll continually rank mid-level SEC teams higher than a Penn State (or even an Iowa in years past). Then when the Arkansas’s and the Georgia’s of the world get beat down in bowl season, I read their year-end columns with a smirk on my face.
Follow my antics: @DanVecellio
Its the name on the front of the jersey that matters most, not the one on the back. -Joe Paterno
True
But for all the expectations that the all-powerful SEC has coming into every season and bowl season, meeting them is rarely ever done.
Follow my antics: @DanVecellio
Its the name on the front of the jersey that matters most, not the one on the back. -Joe Paterno
by Dan Vecellio on Oct 31, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Let’s not “throw stones” at Arky’s schedule. People around the country will never buy close wins against Temple, Purdue or IU as quality opponents.
I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not sure.
Thats what people thought bout 2002 OSU..
not saying we’re that team at all. But they won and they won ugly.
by Artiefufkin10 on Oct 31, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
No, let's
Common Opponent: Alabama
PSU loses by 16 (scored 28.95% of the points in the game), Arkansas loses by 24 (scored 26.9% of the points in the game). ADV: Penn State
Wins over top 70 teams:
Penn State — 4, PSU outscored them 1.58:1
Arkansas — 2, Arkansas outscored them 1.52:1
ADV: Penn State
Over teams ranked #70-#140:
Penn State outscored them 2.95:1
Arkansas outscored them 1.15:1
ADV: Penn State
Wins over teams that are ranked worse than #140
Penn State — 1 (a 16-10 win over Indiana) Arkansas – 3 (including a 38-28 win over Troy. This is a worse ratio of points than Penn State’s 1.6:1 over Indiana) ADV: Penn State
Simply put, Penn State >>>>>>> Arkansas, and I’ll throw stones at their mobile home all day
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
by ckmneon on Oct 31, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 13 recs
if I could rec from my phone
I would. +1 for the mobile homes comment
Formerly known as kmart93
@kmart93
Black Shoe Diaries
by Kyle_Martin on Oct 31, 2011 1:49 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
I like how you use stats to make your points, I do
But for devil’s advocacy s&g’s, could you post the rankings of those 4 & 2 top70 wins?
Man, you really know how to fight :-).
I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not sure.
by PaJoe on Oct 31, 2011 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Interesting note today I saw somewhere
Penn State’s schedule as far as “Who they’ve played so far” is ranked 34th or 35th hardest. Not quite as bad as people have made it out to be
Follow @Ben_Jones88
Blogging at Black Shoe Diaries
It was all a dream, I used to read Word-Up magazine.
well..
I thought it was Temple…then Temple started sucking..
Then I though it was Iowa…and well…..
Now? I don’t even know, maybe Illinois? Jesus…
The next 3 games say a lot about this team, but lets be honest, the B1G is just beating itself up this season. The true BCS contending team is non-existant.
by Artiefufkin10 on Oct 31, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Truth
situations like this: MSU>tO$U, WIS>Neb, MSU>WIS, tO$U>WIS, NEB>MSU.
Most common elements? Is it home team advantage? tO$U having a few players back?
Verdicts still proabably out on their D’s. I guess Neb defense showed the ‘best’ out of all the above contests; and that was a home game for them…
Great week for a PSU week-end of rest for sure. I haven’t checked as yet as to whom these other teams are matched against this coming weekend. So I’m not to sure of much P1G division potential shuffling this weekend (as yet).
At the moment, out of PSU’s next 3 games, I like how I believe PSU matches-up against Neb. The fact that playing them/their similar style of dual-ish option QB, consecutively after jNW and the Zooks I think is a plus for Bradley and the D. They can keep dialing it up a bit more – and hopefully build off of what they’ve recently learned has not only worked best; but also what needs more focus.
Having this as a home game = fan-tastic! I’d believe a packed and loud Beaver Stadium is what we’ll see – and hear!
I hope the Nittany Lions are all well rested and healthy; especially with the usual starters whom have been out recently; Suhey and Moye.
" When you cross that Blue Line, you are mine...Across the Blue Line, it's all football. " " And what you need to do in your life is paint Blue Lines everywhere. " - Joe Paterno 2009
by BlueWhiteLife on Oct 31, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Illinois
Someone may be able to make an argument for Temple (although last couple weeks have downgraded that)
Follow my antics: @DanVecellio
Its the name on the front of the jersey that matters most, not the one on the back. -Joe Paterno
by Dan Vecellio on Oct 31, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd say Iowa
They’re 2 road games, that they were winning for over 30 minutes of each, and lost by a combined 1 point, away from being a borderline top 20 team.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
Nobody else (out side of us and Iowa) will look at it way though..
from a national standpoint, PSU hasn’t really beaten anybody.
by Artiefufkin10 on Oct 31, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, they've beaten the crap out of my ragged nerves, that's for sure.
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
by RWReese on Oct 31, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Illinois
but I think Temple used to be.
Follow @Ben_Jones88
Blogging at Black Shoe Diaries
It was all a dream, I used to read Word-Up magazine.
In the computers
Colley says PSU’s 3 best wins are: Illinois (#32), Eastern Michigan (#58), and Temple (#63)
Sagarin composite: Illinois (#43), Temple (#53), and Purdue (#64)
Sagarin Predictor: Temple (#30), Illinois (#38), Iowa (#58)
Sagarin Elo: Illinois (#46), Eastern Michigan (#58), Purdue (#73)
Massey MOV: Illinois (#48), Temple (#58), Iowa (#60)
Massey BCS: Illinois (#42), Purdue (#68), Iowa (#72)
Massey can suck it for putting Missouri, who lost to Arizona State who Illinois beat, in the top 25 in both. Time weighting is mildly useful for gamblers, but shouldn’t be used for anything else.
The BCS computers sorta respect Eastern Motors. In the top 60 in both Sagarin Elo and Colley.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
Here's the thing about Arkansas for me
I listened to the Tim Brando show (very pro SEC since it’s CBS) and he’ll take calls like ’don’t you think Arkcansas is in a great spot right now and could still play for the national championship?" and Brando said “yeah, they’ll need a little help but they’re still in it”
How do they get to be in the NC chase but litterally no one will even talk about PSU in the media outside of Joe’s wins record? Clemson is still going to be hyped as a potential NC contendor even as they got smoked by an unranked team!
Anyway, the flashlights eat our human power grids, our souls if you will. So i destroyed them, and if a few precious panties were burnt or soiled in the reckoning then so be it
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Black Shoe Diaries
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
SHOP THE BLACK SHOE DIARIES STORE
