Preview: Iowa At Penn State
by Chris Grovich on Oct 7, 2011 8:30 AM EDT
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Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1 Overall, 0-0 Big Ten, 0-0 Corn)
@
Penn St. Nittany Lions (4-1 Overall, 1-0 Big Ten, 1-0 Pig)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
The Line: Iowa +4, Over/Under 45.5 (VegasInsider.com)
TV: Dave Pasch (play-by-play), Chris Spielman (analyst, Ur-ban Mey-er (clap, clap, clapclapclap), Quint Kessenich (sideline).
Weather: 75 degrees and sunny. Beautifully rare for central Pennsylvania in October.
Do Not Start The Ur-ban Mey-er Chant. Not unless Penn State is down by three touchdowns.
Steve Smith. Twenty-five years ago, Steve Smith was a fullback and captain for Penn State's last national championship team. Today, he's in his ninth year of fighting ALS, or Lou Gehrig's Disease. Penn State is taking this opportunity to promote the Steve Smith Fund. If you have a few extra bucks sitting around, give some thought to donating.
Become Gino Toretta For A Day! Nissan is running a promotion on gameday in which you can get autographs from Derrick Williams and John Cappelletti, as well as get your picture taken with the Heisman Trophy. Festivities start at 11:00 a.m., and will be located outside the student ticket entrance of the Bryce Jordan Center.
The Precipice. This is it, right? A chance for Penn State to conquer their Hawkeye demons, set the 2011 season on a positive course, and simultaneously extinguish the creeping apathy in the Penn State fanbase. Make no mistake, it's a tipping point. It's not the most high-profile game, but it's probably the most important game Penn State has played since the Rose Bowl against USC. The consequences of losing this game, to this opponent, are substantial.
Strong On Strong, Weak On Weak. Penn State's defense against Iowa's offense will be a battle of each team's strengths, while the PSU offense against the Iowa defense will be...something less than that, but also where this game likely turns. Will Penn State try to go all MANBALL on Iowa, despite PSU's inability to push around its weaker, previous opponents and Iowa's relatively shaky secondary (although, see the last paragraph below on this topic)?
Murky Red Zone Stats. Iowa Offense (12th of 120 nationally; 17-for-18, 12 TD, 5 FG, 66% TD rate) vs. PSU Defense (115th of 120; 10-for-10, 6 TD, 4 FG, 60% TD rate). PSU Offense (95th of 120; 14-of-19, 10 TD, 4 FG, 53% TD rate) vs. Iowa Defense (15th of 120; 12-for-17, 10 TD, 2 FG, 59% TD rate).
But That's Dumb, Why Not Points Per Red Zone Possession? Agreed. Penn State scores 4.3 points and gives up 4.8 points per red zone possession. Iowa scores 4.8 points and gives up only 3.8 points per red zone possession.
When The Well Runs Dry. At what point will Penn State's relatively thin defense show signs of wear? D'Anton Lynn is listed as "possible" (aren't we all?) for Saturday's game. Stephon Morris should play, but had an ankle injury against Indiana. With Mike Mauti already gone for the season, Penn State can't afford any more attrition on a defense that is tasked with carrying the team until the offense awakens. Also, Iowa is probably not the ideal matchup for Penn State, given the injuries to the back seven. James Vandenberg has a 10:1 TD:INT ratio and a 63% completion percentage. Big numbers for a guy with three very good receivers, and going against a passive defense that will allow easy yards on the edges.
Angry Penn State Hybrid Wide Receiver / Running Back Hating God. Well, that makes a crappy acronym, but Joe Paterno said this week to not expect much from either Bill Belton or Curtis Drake. Brandon Beachum should return, and it'll be interesting to see what happens to the running game when Silas Redd needs a rest. Will it be Beachum or Curtis Dukes?
Sweet, Sweet Canz. Meanwhile, there's a new name to learn in Iowa's backfield: Jordan Canzeri. Iowa has the opposite change of pace scenario from Penn State -- a bruising starting running back (Marcus Coker) who is spelled by a 5'9", 179 pound speedster.
Sweet, sweet can(dy).
What To Hope For. Take advantage of Iowa's weaknesses, for God's sake. They're 89th in passing defense (253 ypg, 66% completion pct). Soften them up through the air and hope that allows space for the anemic Penn State rushing attack. Also, no blatant special teams gaffes (Penn State's punt team has been suspicious as hell in protecting Anthony Fera).
If Penn State Wins. We'll breathe a sigh of relief and rejoice in a football season still swimming with potential.
If Penn State Loses. The internet will not be a place for the weak-hearted, and there will be 70,000 people at the Purdue game. The latter might happen, anyway.
Prediction In GIF Form?
Penn State has a very real opportunity to gain momentum with a win. They are favored, after all. Purdue is on tap for next weekend, and a 3-0 conference start would erase a lot of doubts around here. Sadly, history is impossible to deny in this matchup. Even when Iowa has what is generally considered to be a less talented team than Penn State, they find a way to win. Ferentz, Ken O'Keefe, and Norm Parker have a proven formula against Penn State. Take a few punches, hang around, eventually frustrate the Penn State offense, and wear down the PSU defense with the fourth quarter running game. The combination of recent history and Iowa having an extra week to prepare for the worst Penn State offense since 2004 (we're not close to that level yet, but the point stands) is beyond troublesome.
Oh, And One More Thing. Meant to put this in the preview last night and spaced on it. Iowa moved Micah Hyde from safety back to corner in Week 3. This puts Hyde and Prater, two of the conferences better corners, on Derek Moye and (presumably) Justin Brown. Considering that the Penn State quarterbacks' reads tend to be "(1) look for Derek Moye, (2) look for Derek Moye, (3) look for Justin Brown, (4) throw into ground", don't be surprised to see Hyde and Prater reading the QB's eyes instead of the receivers. Big play possibilities, in both directions.
Iowa 23, Penn State 13.
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The drinking will continue until morale improves.
by Peter Gray on Oct 7, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
See you next year.
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
by psume06 on Oct 7, 2011 9:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think we'll have a good crowd for Purdue.
It IS homecoming, that’s got to count for something… right? Right, guys? Guys?
/crickets
Methinks you have the PSU and Iowa defenses reversed.
Rankings wise, at least.
"That Craig James gets such prominent assignments remains a mystery on the D.B. Cooper scale."
Richard Deitsch on Craig James, who allegedly killed 5 hookers while at SMU.
No, those are right. I just double checked.
by Chris Grovich on Oct 7, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Penn State is indeed tied for last in red zone defense, if that's the question.
They’re tied for 115th, but with other teams. Louisiana Tech, Utah St., TCU, Penn St., San Diego St., and Boise St. have given up points on 100% of red zone possessions. It’s such a weird stat because it’s arranged by the percentage of times you give up points, not how many points you’ve given up. Boise has only allowed FOUR red zone possessions so far (3 TD, 1 FG).
by Chris Grovich on Oct 7, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
God, that's bad when you run the BBDS
Because whenever they’re bending into the RZ, they’re giving up points. Yikes and double yikes.
I'd argue that's because BBDS is designed to keep people around the 30 or so.
It’s not supposed to bend into the red zone. If they make it into the red zone, it already broke sucks.
I need data to test my hypothesis.
"I wouldn’t trust Craig James to report on sixth-grade volleyball." Stewart Mandel on Craig James, who allegedly killed five hookers while at SMU.
We have given up a very low net number of red zone opps
that we’ve given up points in each of them is not good, but when you take into account that we haven’t given up any long TDs from outside the RZ, it’s not so bad.
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
It kind of makes sense
Think about the touchdowns that PSU has surrendered this year. I can’t think of any big play scores they’ve given up. It’s the tradeoff you accept when you run a zone defensive scheme.
When you sort defensive red zone numbers according to total number of trips, PSU is tied for 12th in the nation.
Exactly
And that’s why a lot of the Iowa games have been so painful over the years. Other than the punt block (which wasn’t the defenses fault), you don’t really remember them scoring on a lot of big plays. It’s just been slow and painful as they wear down the defense.
% of TDs (or points for that matter) from the redzone would be an interesting stat.
by Kevin Powers on Oct 7, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Tipping Point Indeed
I used those very words in another post earlier this week. Great minds do think alike.
Indiana is still Indiana. Penn State is also Indiana.
I never REALLY get animated watching games.
I just kind of stew. This is going to be me, the entire second half.
by psuwxman on Oct 7, 2011 10:16 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
TO ALL THE DOUBTERS .......
HAVE FAITH!!!!!!!
GO LIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
F*** IOWA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by nxk146 on Oct 7, 2011 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 5 recs
Do you know how to comment without exclamation points and caps?
Formerly known as kmart93
@kmart93
Black Shoe Diaries
NO!
MY MOTHER NEVER TAUGHT ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by misdreavus79 on Oct 8, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll go ahead and say this now...
…instead of after the game in the event of a loss. Otherwise, I will stand accused of finding anything and everything I can to shift blame. The bottom line is this — Iowa’s passing attack scares me. I think we have a very strong defense this year, but I don’t have a lot of confidence against good passing teams. Good quarterbacks will eat up our bend but don’t break zone defense just by realizing that they can throw short completions every time.
Overall, I’m a Bradley supporter, but his defense is admittedly Penn State. Just like the infamously boring offense, our defense has no pre-snap movement and does attempt to disguise coverages or blitzes in any way. Our defense succeeds on fundamentals. I think better offenses can exploit our simplistic defensive approach. Furthermore, besides Devon Still, where is our pass rush? Give a decent QB time to throw to good WR’s and we’ll get eaten alive.
Call me a pessimist if you want, but we haven’t come close to facing a decent QB yet this year. We also haven’t seen WR’s of this caliber and our DB’s are banged up. I hope our D is up to the task because that could be the only way we win this game.
Agreeed - our MO since Bradley DC.
It did not used to be so when Jerry Sandusky had control of our defense. Good qb’s always have a field day picking apart our high school cover 3. It drives me insane that we don’t play more man or cover 2……especially with the talented corners we have. There is nothing wrong with a cover 3 base scheme but good offensive coaches are going to game-plan and adjust to that defense. TB has never markedly adjusted his defense to counter. I am scared of this game because it is Iowa and Ferentz has Paterno’s number. That said……this team isn’t as bad as it is being portrayed. If TO’s are cut….Temple and Indiana are both blow-outs. AND….we gave Bama a game for at least a half……..more than either Florida or Arkansas can say. All of that seems lost on a fanbase obsessed with our qb debacle. If we take care of the ball (McG……LOOK FOR OTHERS BESIDES MOYE WHEN YOU ARE IN!!!! ROBO…..PUT SOME FREAKIN AIR ON YOUR DEEP BALLS) PSU wins a close one……if we don’t Iowa wins by 10+
I thought only safeties played 15 yards off the ball! Let's crack some nuts!
Red Zone Revisited
There’s no polishing the ugly stats of what happens when Penn State is in, or allows an opposing offense to reach, the red zone.
But those stats also lend a little support for the optimists clinging to the belief that this team is only a play here and there away from being a lot better. Keep this in mind: Penn State’s defense has allowed 10 red zone trips in five games; Iowa’s 17 in 4. That, too, is a striking statistic.
Even on the other side of the ball, though Iowa reaches the red zone 4.5 times per game, Penn State isn’t terribly far behind at 3.8 (obligatory mention of having played against Alabama’s D).
Again, this isn’t to say you can ignore the red zone meltdowns … but if Penn State tightens that up, even just a little bit, they look a lot better on the scoreboard in a hurry.
by tuscaloosalion on Oct 7, 2011 10:26 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Good points.
On offense, I think our red zone struggles come down to a poor playbook. Overall, the playbook is already rather small and it just further restricts possibilities with the field gets smaller in the red zone. I mean, look at our offense inside the 5 yard line. We use one play in that scenario — a fullback dive. We ran that play 3 times in a row against Indiana State and I was screaming at the TV. Take that opportunity and practice something else that can be used against an opponent that isn’t severely over-matched.
It’s also not just this year that our red zone offense has struggled.
TURNOVERS=RED ZONE STRUGGLES!
I have no problem giving the rock to Zordich inside the 5. He just needs to hand onto the rock. If the offense eliminates red zone turnovers they will be much better off. I can tell you that coaches cut down their playbook immensely……especially inside the redzone……when teams consistently turn the ball over (which PSU has done).
I thought only safeties played 15 yards off the ball! Let's crack some nuts!
Not turning it over is obvious.
But we also need to score more TD’s. And you’re not going to get more TD’s by running the same simplistic plays over and over. But to your point, maybe we need to take baby steps and first figure out a way to get some form of points.
There was one point last week
Where PSU had a very short yardage play, and the backfield was Zordich at FB and DEVON SMITH at TB, and the Indiana defense was all ROFLCOPTER. They completely ignored Smith and stuffed Zordich.
I mean, really? Really?
by Chris Grovich on Oct 7, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn't pick that up on the radio..
but my goodness that is the most idiotic formation ever.
Its getting to the point where I’m not even excited about recruiting because they sure as hell aren’t using personnel to their strengths (see AC’s post).
by Artiefufkin10 on Oct 7, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
We should never have been stuffed by IU
Blame this on the OL not the playcalling. If we can’t make a short yardage play against IU what are your expectations against OSU, Nebraska and Wisco? As I stated…..until the team stops turning it over in the redzone expect a basic playbook.
I thought only safeties played 15 yards off the ball! Let's crack some nuts!
Well, at least the weather is supposed to be great ..
because otherwise, Mr. Taggart, I am De-Pressed. But the thing is, I will continue to support the players. They are for whom I feel the most disheartened – due to the continued clusterfu@$%ry of the coaching staff, they are being mismanaged more than the employee funds at Enron. And so while I understand PSU fans being disgruntled, not wanting to spend the money to go to a game, etc., please don’t turn into the bandwagonners that are the likes of Spitt fans. The players are giving 100%, and deserve better. And I gotta say is, if I hear any Urban chants, I’m going to puke – that would only make those fans look like a bunch of douchebags. I, too, am hopeful that changes will be made at the end of the year. However, until then, it is what it is. Let’s try to make the best of it.
To your point on potential Urban Meyer chants
I will be furious if I hear that. Regardless of how you feel about Joe and the staff, that’s not a good look.
Thirded
A Garden State Nittany Lion...
"The way things are these days, 9-3 and one of the best graduation rates in the country doesn't seem like such a terrible bargain to make." - Michael Weinreb
by Mike Pettigano on Oct 7, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Urban Meyer sez...
His dream job would be Notre Dame or Ohio State. Guess which one is kinda available right now.
Who in their right mind would ever dream about living in Ohio, let alone Columbus?
That being said, I’d still welcome Meyer to State College.
Run.
by Bob Sacamano on Oct 7, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
No way.....
His players were in trouble all the time but it doesn’t get picked up by the national media (like it does when a PSU player has a transgression) . If you lived in the south and actually got to hear about how many problems UF has had over his tenure you would not want him. Also…..the fact that he didn’t boot Shariff Floyd off the team for the crap he pulled last year completely destroys Meyer’s credibility in my mind. If I had my druthers……I would say Fitz at this point.
I thought only safeties played 15 yards off the ball! Let's crack some nuts!
He recruited and continued to allow Will Hill to play
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
In a way, I really don't believe that.
But this is assuming that Urban’s health problems weren’t, you know, “health problems”. If those issues are legit, why would he want to put himself in a psychotic pressure cooker like Columbus or South Bend? It makes no sense. He makes a handsome salary now, in a relatively stress-free job other than the travel involved. If Meyer is constantly on the verge of serious health event, I don’t think he’s crazy enough about coaching to subject himself to the nonsense at post-Tressel Ohio State.
However, if he wants a relatively stress-free work environment (for FBS coaching, at least) at a sleeping giant of a program with a fanbase that has proven that they’ll tolerate losing football games…
by Chris Grovich on Oct 7, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
On top of the health stuff, he rails constantly about how much he hates the college game because of the rat race the recruiting scene has become, I can’t imagine he wants back into that so I agree.
by Kevin Powers on Oct 7, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
That strikes me a bit slimy.
He was an enthusiastic part of that rat race.
by Chris Grovich on Oct 7, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Did Urban oversign at Florida?
If he’s against that, I could see why he wouldn’t want to bother with the SEC. You’re competing with guys who have no qualms with cleaning out the roster during Spring practice and immediately hitting the recruiting trail for the next year’s class to start the cycle over again.
You can already see guys like Mark Richt getting squeezed out and I don’t believe he oversigns. Whether or not Richt is a good coach, I don’t know. That said, I really don’t think Bobby Petrino is that great of a coach, but he seems to have very very talented teams.
Note, I’m not trying to get into an argument about the rights and wrongs of over-signing but just putting some perspective on why it might be more stressful to keep up the Sabans and Miles of the SEC.
by Artiefufkin10 on Oct 7, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm pretty sure Florida disallows oversigning
as an institutional policy. So, I’m not sure how Meyer fells about it personally.
"The limits of my language mean the limits of my world" -- Ludwig Wittgenstein
Having had to compete with oversigners
I’m sure he’s developed a bent against the practice. Odds are.
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
Funny thing is
he didn’t oversign, and he’s won more NC’s in the past 6 years than any of the oversigning schools.
Formerly known as kmart93
@kmart93
Black Shoe Diaries
I don't if thats true.
However, if he wants a relatively stress-free work environment (for FBS coaching, at least) at a sleeping giant of a program with a fanbase that has proven that they’ll tolerate losing football games…
I don’t believe the “Trust the staff” types (which I generally am one) will put up with nearly as many losses before turning on the staff. Going a couple, three, years between BCS seasons (which seems to be the bare minimum of results accepted of this staff) will cause a lot more angst than it does now because there isn’t the familiarity and track record with the new coach.
I’m sorry, but blanket statements are proven false 99% of the time, and if you make a blanket statement about college football, there’s a good chance that one exception will be Joe Paterno. - AdamShell @ BSD
Also; Always carry a bottle opener and the beer will provide itself.
I have it on good authority
That Meyer is totally interested in the PSU job. Like, 100% covets the job. You don’t have to believe me, but the meetings with Spanier and Curley weren’t just meaningless chats over a cup of tea.
I think it would be an interesting experiment...
for at least 3-4 years.
Meyer’s teams have always been very stout, defensively speaking. And he’s had some very dynamic offenses at Utah and Florida. IMO, this is what prevents PSU from being a perennial B1G contender.
by Artiefufkin10 on Oct 7, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
He's certainly a good football coach
I don’t know exactly where I stand on him being a fit for Penn State, but lately I’ve been feeling like he’d enjoy the opportunity to recruit and coach cleanly, at a school where that type of thing is valued.
In other words, it’s possible that his recruiting and discipline issues (which aren’t really that bad, comparatively speaking, and have never resulted in compliance violations in any event) that some bring up could be the result of outside pressures and influences at Florida that aren’t present at Penn State.
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
Precisely
He’d be recruiting a different type of kid at Penn State, and he’d be under a microscope because of an administration and an alumni that values different things than the administration and alumni in Gainesville.
There are a lot of people who have speculated that Meyer's "health issues"
…were basically an excuse to get the hell out of Gainesville. And who knows, maybe he got a close look at SEC life and realized that it was way more sinister and chaotic than he imagined.
by Chris Grovich on Oct 7, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Moving from Gainesville to Columbus
Lateral at best
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
My take...
If this team plays with a fire lit under its ass, PSU wins.
If not, expect to see another IU/Temple performance with Iowa pulling out late.
I think the season is pretty much on the line here – lose, and there’s not particularly interesting except apprehension for the shallacking PSU will recieve in Madison.
It's all about emotion for this game
Penn State must, must, must play with an energy on the level of the first drive against Alabama; same for the defense.
If PSU can score a touchdown in either of its first two possessions, Penn State will win.
A Garden State Nittany Lion...
"The way things are these days, 9-3 and one of the best graduation rates in the country doesn't seem like such a terrible bargain to make." - Michael Weinreb
by Mike Pettigano on Oct 7, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
The emotion has to last 4 quarters...
in 2009 we saw them open up 10-0 on Iowa and look how that turned out?
by Artiefufkin10 on Oct 7, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
So many unknowns
If the PSU front 4 gets pressure on The Dawson and PSU converts in the red zone, it could be over early and PSU could win in a blowout.
If the soft zone = death gets picked apart by the Dawson and PSU fails to turn yards into points, Iowa could win comfortably.
It’s cliche-but-so-true to point to special teams, turnovers, big plays, and controversial calls as to what will decide the game, but such is just the story of PSU — Iowa. And it always goes Iowa’s way.
17-9 Hawkeyes is what I sorta expect, but nothing from 45-10 PSU (seriously, Iowa’s defense is really bad at giving up yards, and PSU could start converting in the red zone, right?) to 24-7 Iowa would be surprising.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever
Except Saturday
Beat Iowa
I do enjoy that you've stuck with 17-9 all week.
I bumped up both sides in today’s prediction from what I said on the podcast (21-10, I think). And I agree that there’s a rather wide range of possibilties here. I think PSU is going to need at least 17-20 to have a realistic shot at winning.
by Chris Grovich on Oct 7, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I wish this was a noon game..
so we could just get it over with and I’d have enough time to start forgetting about the outcome before the evening.
If we score first we will have a 66% chance of winning
If we fall more than 7 points down, we will have a 1% chance of winning.
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
Do not start Urban Meyer chants.
Ever.
19-9 Penn State.
Joe Paterno Apologist
We used to do Joe Pa-terno chants
even during the dark years. Because we are Penn State.
Don’t be something you’re not, especially when that thing is lame.
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
The defense will look great and hold Iowa to 14 points tomorrow, I predict.
That’s good news, right? Well, no….because I have so little faith in this offense that I think we score only 3 points. Not that Iowa’s defense is great, but neither is Indiana’s or apparently Temple’s. We’ve proven this year that we’re masterful at shooting ourselves in the foot, so this should be no exception.
If they dont point out their iowa’s glaring weakness on defense, then I have no faith in them winning more than 2 more games this year. Their secondary is baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaadddddd. Capitalize on their weaknesses and prove the coaching staff knows what the hell they are doing. McDerp better be the only qb to play today, unless he is worse than usual by halftime.
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