WORST. ONE-LOSS. TEAM. EVARR.
by Chris Grovich on Nov 1, 2011 4:30 PM EDT
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Print[This is a bit of a mess. It's near-impossible for it not to be a mess.]
As Penn State continued to pile up ugly losses WINS since mid-September, many have labeled them the worst one-loss team in the nation. It's an argument perfectly suited for college football in the internet age -- senseless and without a definite answer. Here are the one-loss teams from BCS conferences:
| One Loss Team | Loss (BCS) Score | Top 50 Wins (Sagarin) | SOS (Sagarin) | vs. Sagarin Top 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State (B10) | Alabama (2) 27-11 | Illinois (43) | 64 | 0-1 |
| Michigan (B10) | @Michigan State (17) 28-14 | Notre Dame (26) | 60 | 1-1 |
| Nebraska (B10) | @Wisconsin (20) 48-17 | Michigan State (20), Washington (32), Ohio State (29) | 38 | 2-1 |
| Clemson (ACC) | @Georgia Tech (23) 31-17 | Auburn (30), Florida State (36), Virginia Tech (23), North Carolina (40) | 43 | 2-0 |
| Virginia Tech (ACC) | Clemson (11) 23-3 | Miami (41) | 54 | 0-1 |
| Arkansas (SEC) | @Alabama (2) 38-14 | Texas A&M (8), Auburn (30), Vanderbilt (49) | 61 | 2-1 |
| South Carolina (SEC) | Auburn (22) 16-13 | Georgia (14), Vanderbilt (49), Tennessee (47), Mississippi State (44) | 33 | 1-1 |
| Oklahoma (B12) | Texas Tech (NR) 41-38 | Florida State (35), Missouri (11), Texas (9), Kansas State (18) | 9 | 4-0 |
| Kansas State (B12) | Oklahoma (6) 58-17 | Miami (41), Baylor (25), Missouri (11), Texas Tech (39) | 20 | 2-1 |
| Oregon (P12) | LSU (1) 40-27 | Nevada (48), Arizona State (15) | 45 | 1-1 |
Penn State hasn't been done any favors by its schedule, to be sure. Iowa crapped out against Minnesota, and now isn't even PSU's second best win according to Sagarin -- that's Temple at #53. Similarly, they have the worst strength of schedule among the one-loss teams. Oklahoma, Kansas State, Clemson, and (barely) South Carolina have four top-50 wins each.
Flawed metrics? Well, sure. Unless you think Missouri is the 11th best team in the nation (not to mention Texas A&M #8 and Texas at #9). Focus on the "quality" of the losses and the top 50 wins.
Looking at the losses, certainly, Penn State rises toward the top of the list. On a points/location basis, PSU's 16-point home loss against Alabama is comparable to Arkansas' 24-point road loss to the Tide. Oregon's neutral field loss against LSU is the best of the lot. Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, and Nebraska's lone losses came by 20 points or more. Oklahoma lost to an unranked team at home.
Really, the only thing saving Penn State in this scenario is that they lost to an excellent team by 16 points. Everything else works against them (not to mention when compared to some multi-loss teams). Sadly uninteresting in this mess is Michigan, with a two-touchdown road rivalry loss, and only one top-50 win.
There's the data, incomplete and conflicting as it may be. Let's leave it up to you: who is the worst one-loss BCS team? Make your argument (with whatever data you choose) in the comments.
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C'mon...it's gotta be South Carolina
They had a party-hard QB that they finally dumped. Their offense (Lattimore) blew out his knee. They’re doomed.
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
they MAY be doomed.
in all likelihood, they are. but until it happens, well…
i hate them, too. and want to agree with you. when they lose, they’ll be the OMG MOAR OVERHYPED. but until then, they’re in the same boat as we are.
wanna know who the worst 1-loss team is? the first one to have fewer points than their opponent at the end of the next game.
WINUGLY2011
"They stalk their prey to within two or three great leaps and then launch a lightning-fast charge, striking their prey. Victims are most often killed by suffocation with a prolonged bite..."--Hinterland Who's Who
by afields16 on Nov 2, 2011 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I vote Michigan...
Iowa will help us out Saturday and the truth of the Wolverines will begin to emerge as they lose three of their last four — all but tOSU.
"The limits of my language mean the limits of my world" -- Ludwig Wittgenstein
As I said to a Michigan fan friend of mine,
Our team isn’t going to be the only one in the B10 to end the season on a 2-game slide.
Dude....you need to sip a bit more Kool-aide
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
by RWReese on Nov 1, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
+1
We have little tranquility but tons of tranquilizers.
by mikeissurreal on Nov 1, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
You're right
our team isn’t going to end the season on a 2 game slide
I'm a woman eating monster with a suitcase full of fire.
Besides, you know the rule...
MICHIGAN SUCKS!
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
Follow @GSchofield50
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 1, 2011 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
its 12:40 AM
and Michigan still sucks
by Milne4heisman94 on Nov 2, 2011 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
WINS
“As Penn State continued to pile up ugly WINS…”
ACCEPTS THE PAYPAL
Hello, everybody, coach get old, the new coach approaching, click in.
Welcome to http://www.pennlive.com
by newenglandnittanylion on Nov 1, 2011 4:54 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Look
I know we all like to poke fun at the Big Least, but technically they are a BCS conference. Cincinnati has only 1 loss though
Cardiac Hill contributor
by oaklandzoo12 on Nov 1, 2011 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Proud of us
that PSU has the most votes. I think South Carolina is the only other team that you can make an argument for, and there only in the discussion because of injuries.
On a related note, does anybody else feel like this season is a death march towards another OSU B10 championship? Maybe I’m overly sensitive. but I am so sick of those fuckers. Their fans do not deserve another championship, yet their defense is solid, their offense improving (enough) and their only remaining regular season roadbliocks are home v PSU and at Mich. It makes me hate college football.
by InScoresOfOtherGames on Nov 1, 2011 5:22 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I said in the preseason
that the OSU-PSU winner would play the Michigan – MSU winner in Indy. It makes me feel smart.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
I'd rank them
Oklahoma
Oregon
Nebraska
Clemson
SCAR
Michigan
PSU
VTech
Akry
KSU
Needs moar Dukes
Sean Lee is the only tolerable thing about the Cowboys
Gamecocks on November 1 are last or tied with KSU
your ranking has them where they would have been 3 weeks ago. Which begs the question on whether we are rating the quality of the teams themselves, in terms of projection for the rest of the season, or the value of their resume up to this point.
Using current record only as one piece of evidence of actual team quality and not any sort of barometer on its own, I’d say there are tiers:
Tier 1 – Oklahoma and Oregon
Tier 2 – Clemson, Nebraska, Michigan, Penn State
Tier 3 – Arkansas, KSU, VPI, USC, Cincy
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
I like the tier approach too
Oklahoma and Oregon, I think anyway, are pretty clearly better than the rest of the pack. After that, it’s basically a jumble that you could put in a couple different ways and make a pretty good argument for it.
Oklahoma I get
I don’t understand the Oregon love at all. Sure, they have 2 top 50 wins, over a team that lost to Illinois and Nevada, who is only 5 spots above Temple. Syracuse’s fake win over Toledo probably accounts for the difference, or at least most of it between Temple and Nevada.
Using different arbitrary cutoffs, Oregon has 4 top 70 wins. So does Penn State. 2 of Oregon’s wins are over teams ranked worse than #120. Penn State only has one.
If we’re going by recent performance, is a 43-28 home win over Washington State (#88, and their most recent performance, 1.53:1 scoring ratio) that much better than a 10-7 home win over Illinois (#43, Penn State’s most recent performance, 1.43:1 scoring ratio)? Is it any better, or even as good?
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
4th in overall. Penn State is 12th.
And Penn State has played 3 teams in the top 28 in S&P+, including the #1 overall team. Oregon has played one in the top 34, the #3 overall team.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
Forgot AzSU
they’ve played 2 in the top 34
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
Overall
Oregon has a 278.9 S&P+ against a schedule that averages 217.0 in S&P+. Penn State has a 245.2 S&P+ against a schedule that averages 217.8 in S&P+. Here’s the thing: Oregon’s S&P+, but not their opponents, includes a game against Missouri State (#183 Sagarin). Penn State’s S&P+, but not their opponents, includes a game against Indiana State (#103 Sagarin). And Oregon has had an extra week off to heal and prepare so far in their schedule (thanks to a Thursday night game, 2 of their games have involved more than the standard one week of preparation).
Using Microsoft Excel to get a trendline for S&P+ and assuming that Sagarin rank follows S&P+ (both have huge amounts of error. I know. Just trying to get ballpark figures), estimates Missouri State’s S&P+ at 116.9 and Indiana State’s at 161.3
So while Oregon’s S&P+ / Penn State’s is 1.34:1, Penn State’s schedule’s S&P+ / Oregon’s is 1.03:1, and Oregon has had an extra week to prepare.
So yeah, Penn State ~= Oregon overall.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
DAMNIT
I thought I said in my post above that I was looking prospectively.
Stats and game results are only somewhat indicative. Penn State – Oregon would actually be pretty intriguing to see. We will know more when we see how our defense matches up with a more explosive spread option offense in Nebraska.
The way I tiered the teams were based purely on my opinion. In some cases I could argue using stats, but in a few I’d probably just go with gut feel. The pool of teams is so large and college football teams are so inconsistent and fickle in their performance that it’s generally only good for seeing which teams are dominant, which are terrible, and maybe being able to tell the large middle band apart in certain aspects, but by no means does it give us a good idea of what would happen on the field.
In my opinion, there are so many stats in college football that should literally just be entirely disregarded. I mean it’s really like rock, scissor, paper with how many variations there are in team design and strategy. You can tell me that what rock has done in his matchups with scissor and how scissor has done against paper all you want…
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
That's why
I don’t bet on college football.
"It's never a bad thing thing to vote for the suckiness of tOSU." -RWReese
Follow @Paige2PSU
That's why it's easier to bet than NFL
Especially in the early-going. If you bet LSU, Alabama, OK State and Wisconsin for the first 6 weeks, you’d have made a crapton of money. It gets harder now.
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
and Stanford
"my dad says Michigan used to be good"
by hbeach08 on Nov 2, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And I know S&P+ weighs everything based on leverage
so it’s MORE useful, but, especially with many important games left, it provides more of an educated guess than any real insight.
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
Agree with the ones you put PSU over
I’d put PSU above SCAR for sure and probably above Michigan and Clemson as well.
Oregon and Penn State are kinda the same team. Both have a very forgivable loss in their first two games. Penn State’s best win is over Illinois; but Oregon’s best win is over Arizona State, who lost to Illinois…in a road game by 3 points. Temple and Nevada are roughly the same team.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
But Oregon is fun to watch! They score points and stuff
and they have this WHIZZ BANG POW ZIP, HOLY COW DID YOU SEE THE SPEED offense! Obviously, they must be better.
by psuwxman on Nov 1, 2011 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Defense optional, though.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
Follow @GSchofield50
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 1, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't let the S&P+ fool you
They’re 52nd in Annar total defense. Being in the top 10 in S&P+ and 52nd in Annar total defense tells me either A) They’ve played a bunch of bad offenses, B) They play high possession games, or C) They give up a (relative) ton of big plays that don’t score.
(A) isn’t true, or at least not inordinately so. They’ve played 5 teams in the top 72 in Annar total offense in their 8 games. Not murderers’ row, but respectable enough. Penn State has played 6 of the top 78 in their 9 games, which is pretty similar.
(B) isn’t true. Oregon is in the top 5 of both Annar total offense and S&P+, but not the #1 team in either, let alone by a wide margin. The only way a team has roughly the same rank in both is if their possessions per game are pretty typical
So it’s C. Oregon’s defense gets the job done on a high percentage of plays (hence the high S&P+), but when they don’t, teams are getting big chunks of yards (hence the mediocre Annar) that aren’t resulting in points (high S&P+ again).
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
Last time I checked, having a fuck ton of speed at skill positions
And being able to get them into space is pretty valuable.
I was really just trying to crack a joke.
They win based more on their offense than defense. Not quite as extreme as some other teams, but still.
Only with an actual QB and a damn good running back.
Not a running back/mediocre QB hybrid.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
Follow @GSchofield50
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 2, 2011 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
Their speed is pretty valuable. And Kelly sure knows how to get the ball to his playmakers. Have a feeling if Devon Smith was out in Oregon with his speed, he’d be getting the ball in spots that would give him a chance to make more big plays than he’s gotten from the PSU coaching staff.
But they'd have to coat his
hands with pine sap half the time
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
And then they play a team with large, angry people who can tackle.
And then they lose.
Tom Bradley for offensive coordinator.
by ReadingRambler on Nov 2, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I vote for VaTech, despite their otherwise elite status.
They only scored 3 points at home against a crappy Clemson defense, and barely beat Duke this past weekend.
Ew, she's presenting like a mandrill!
Yup same
They shouldn’t be on this list, but Duke’s kicker made Illinois kicking game on Saturday look competent.
Formerly known as kmart93
@kmart93
Black Shoe Diaries
Yeah, pretty much this
/ditto
" When you cross that Blue Line, you are mine...Across the Blue Line, it's all football. " " And what you need to do in your life is paint Blue Lines everywhere. " - Joe Paterno 2009
by BlueWhiteLife on Nov 1, 2011 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Although to play devil's advocate,
one could make the argument against us that we only scored 16 points on an even crappier Indiana defense. I choose to ignore this argument, though.
Ew, she's presenting like a mandrill!
I find it healthy
to ignore things I don’t like!
"It's never a bad thing thing to vote for the suckiness of tOSU." -RWReese
Follow @Paige2PSU
Depends what you mean by worst
Obviously, that’s what the poll hinges upon. I think our defense is the best of that group and our offensive performance thus far is the worst (I still think our offense is slightly better than our performance, but hey, you are your record, and theirs has plenty of derpitude).
In other news, who cares, right? Let that list dwindle and make the point moo.
Penn State's opponents
Are not bad. There just haven’t been any particularly good ones individually that PSU has beat. PSU’s opponents are 41-24 in games not involving PSU.
But the wins, especially Iowa, have crapped the bed in close games. They’re 4-8 in games decided by 3 points or less (that don’t involve each other or PSU).
Changing nothing in the current Colley Matrix except Iowa’s games against Minnesota and Iowa State (both of which were road games that they were winning for over 30 minutes of regulation each, and lost by a combined 1 point), PSU goes from #14 to #9 and gives PSU a win over #26 Iowa.
That changed their record to 6-6 in games decided by 3 points or less, which is reasonable.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
Still having 3 games left leaves a.....
multitude of possible final records for PSU…..the reason that they are not ranked higher or appreciated better is because of the QB situation as we all know. If we win out or end up at 10 wins at the Champeeenship at Indie and get a serious BCS game, then it’s all worth it. I see every remaining game as the collapse of this very gutty team despite the D….I don’t want it to happen, but it wouldn’t surprise me and I would be disappointed anyways…..Joe’s been saying that it’s been a year where they are trying to do something “special” (you all can fill in the “special” circumstances BLANK with any thing you like), but aside from the gut-wrenching/heart stopping year so far(and they could finish with * wins) I am still enjoing the ride.
"The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me God." The Government is like the Mob, you can check out, but never leave.
by DerryPharmer on Nov 1, 2011 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
So much hinges on the next game
win, and I think 11-1 is a serious possibility. Lose, and 8-4 is a serious possibility.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
CK…you have provided some astounding stats in your posts…believe me, you amaze me.
However, that statement you made above sounded pretty elementary! Win…..11-1 is a possibility; lose….. 8-4 is a possibility! Well…yea.
Just poking you a bit in the side. Love ya, man.
I used to be indecisive. Now I'm not sure.
It is sorta "the team that scores more points will win"esque, yeah
but it’s also a reflection of how I feel about the next 3. All are winnable. All are losable. Winning the first one will go a long way toward winning the next two. Losing could do the same.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
You sound like Father Flanagan from Boys Town...
“There’re no bad boys…there’s just bad environment, bad training, bad example, bad thinking.” Which actually, now that I think about it, probably sums up college football. Of course, Mayday Malone on Cheers said, “There’re no bad boys, just boys with bad haircuts,” and that too might sum up college football.
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
Indeed they are.
I kept thinking “4” when I saw Missouri because they’re 4-4. Numbers started spinning after a while.
by Chris Grovich on Nov 1, 2011 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Much as I love the computers
Mizzou > Arizona State > Illinois doesn’t make sense in light of, you know, results of games. Or records overall.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
strength of schedule
Missouri has played the most insane schedule of anyone as of now. They win out and they’ll belong where they are now. Losses to Texas, TT, and/or Baylor and they’ll drop. But for now, I don’t think it’s too ridiculous to see them where they are.
I agree with their BCS computer average
which is 29.75 (after the #16 Sagarin and #41 Colley are eliminated). Yes, they’ve played an insane stretch, but they also have a closer-than-the-score-indicates win over Miami (OH) and one of their wins was over Western Illinois (#188).
They dominated Iowa State, but Iowa State might be coached by Ron Zook this year. They got crushed by Texas and Mizzou, but beat Texas Tech (who, lest we forget, beat Oklahoma and were winning that game much more than they were behind) and beat Iowa, who without that loss would be considered an OK team.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
Well
Didn’t realize they were such an outlier in both Sagarin and Colley. Still, it’ll be interesting to see how they do the next couple of weeks.
Do people really think we'd lose to Kansas State?
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
I said it before
but the worst 1 loss team is still better than the best 2 loss team where it counts. I’ll take it.
I voted Arkansas
Mainly because, they’re darn lucky to even have only one loss this season so far. They are not a good team. Same goes with K-State. I don’t think either of those teams are particularly good.
"I don’t know what he’s done differently, whether he’s eating differently or Sue is making him happier, but he’s definitely a different coach out there" Devon Still
I'm hoping all this pessimism (or realism, I suppose)
all results in a super-reverse-jinx wherein we win out.
Of course, in all honesty, the only game I truly care about it O$U. My God how I loathe them…
by cjapsu on Nov 2, 2011 10:02 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
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