Five Keys to Victory - Penn State/Nebraska

The first weekend of November, 1997, was trumpeted by ESPN as ‘Judgment Day.’ It was the first time College GameDay ever came to Happy Valley. #5 Michigan at #3 Penn State. The Lions were weighed in the balance and found wanting. Penn State’s weaknesses in every phase of the game – offense, defense, special teams, and coaching – were laid bare for the nation to see. Michigan dominated every phase of the game. The highly-touted 1997 team never really recovered from that cloudy, cold, depressing day.

On the second weekend in November 2011, Penn State will host Nebraska. This will be another ‘Judgment Day’ for the Lions. They sit at 5-0 in the Leader’s Division of the Big Ten. People are at least considering trips to Indianapolis and Pasadena, something unthinkable in late September. Questions about the quality of their wins persist. Their offense has played, well, offensively at times. But I submit for your judgment five keys to a Penn State victory over Nebraska next week.

1.       We have two weeks to prepare and we must use them wisely.  The game will be won or lost just as much in the coaches’ booth as on the field. Will Penn State install any new wrinkles in their offense for the game? Or will they show Nebraska’s defense the same offense that was just barely good enough to beat our first five Big Ten opponents? Will the coaches use Rob Bolden in a way that plays to his strengths and complements the game plan, or will they simply stick him in there and say, “Go get ‘em, kid!” The best thing that could happen for Rob Bolden and Penn State on November 12 is a limited package which allows for a couple important conversions or big gains and gets the crowd, the media, and the football alumni off his back. And speaking of that, I wonder what JoePa thinks of his former players using Twitter to openly critique his choice of quarterback?

2.       Northwestern is our friend.  The most important game this coming Saturday is not LSU at Alabama, but Northwestern at Nebraska. This is Northwestern’s bowl game. We know that they can score points, and that their defense cannot stop anyone. So what should we hope for? Not a Northwestern win. First of all, it’s an incredibly remote possibility. Secondly, tired and concerned Nebraska is better than angry Nebraska. We should hope for a game in which Dan Persa and company exposes any weaknesses that may be left in the improving Blackshirt defense (and which our hopefully eagle-eyed coaches can exploit in the following week’s game plan). We should also hope that Northwestern remains in the game for at least two-and-a-half quarters, forcing Nebraska's starters to go deep into the game. Something, anything, that plants the seed of doubt in a Nebraska team that really is expected to go in and annihilate the Wildcats as a scrimmage before the real game at Happy Valley. Northwestern planted the seed of doubt in PSU's 1997 team. Now we need Northwestern to do us a favor.

3.       The hype must become focus.  At that forgettable Michigan game in 1997, senior linebacker Andre Collins committed a needless personal foul on a third down play which kept Michigan’s initial drive alive and led to a field goal. At the 2009 Rose Bowl, Aaron Maybin sacked Mark Sanchez, caused a fumble, and recovered it. However, he jumped offside to do it, and the Trojans scored on that possession for a ten-point lead. Would the outcomes of those games have changed if those plays had happened differently? Perhaps not. But Penn State needs to come out of the tunnel at Beaver Stadium, not with hype, but with focus. It starts with Matt McGloin going through progressions, continues with dangerous punt-returner Chaz Powell’s ball-protection, and ends with the aggressive defense’s controlled ferocity.  

4.       Nebraska is not Alabama. Bo Pelini is not Nick Saban.  In September, Nick Saban’s Alabama came into a raucous Beaver Stadium and methodically shut down the Nittany Lions. They did not panic when the Lions jumped out to a 3-0 lead, or when the defense shut down the Tide’s first two drives. Alabama knows how to play in a hostile environment. This Nebraska team may not. Witness their meltdown against Wisconsin earlier this year, which at this point in the season seems even more remarkable. Will Beaver Stadium intimidate Nebraska and Bo Pelini in the same way that Camp Randall affected them? We can only hope so.

5.       Penn State knows how to come from behind and win. Before the season, most people thought that the November schedule, with home Nebraska, away Ohio State, and away Wisconsin, would work against Penn State. That still may turn out to be true. But there is a different take on it now. Now, we have a team that knows how to win: the only unbeaten team in Big Ten play. Moreover, four of those Big Ten wins were come-from-behind wins, three on the road, two of those games decided in the final minutes. Whoever has watched college football enough knows that it is usually the team that believes it will win that will win. We’ve watched Penn State win games it otherwise would have lost because our players believed they were winners and the others believed they were losers. So is that belief rooted deeply enough in these Nittany Lions? In a close game, will they rise yet again to the occasion? Before the 1982 game, senior co-captain Ken Kelley said to a pep rally, “It’s not that we might beat Nebraska; we’re gonna beat Nebraska.” Does the 2011 team feel the same way?

Do the coaches coach? Does Northwestern play its part? Are the players overhyped or focused? Does Nebraska double-clutch just a little bit? Do we believe? If these five keys happen, then Senior Day 2011 will truly be something special and maybe even a springboard to the conclusion of a story too unbelievable even to fathom just one month ago.