Preview: Penn State at Wisconsin
by Chris Grovich on Nov 25, 2011 1:51 PM EST
in Football
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PrintPenn State (9-2 Overall, 6-1 Big Ten) at Wisconsin (9-2 Overall, 5-2 Big Ten)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m., Camp Randall Stadium. Madison, Wisconsin
TV: ESPN. Sean McDonough (play-by-play), Matt Millen (analyst), Tom Rinaldi (sincere, softly articulated emotion). Game also available on ESPN3 at this link.
Line: Penn State +14.5
Weather: 70% chance of rain, temperatures falling to around 40. 10-15 mph wind.
Channel Your Inner Slayer. The Penn State community at large continues to cycle through grief, anger, hopefulness, and depression. Since the weirdness and novelty of the first half against Nebraska wore off, the slightly forgotten football team seems to have settled on the following:
In fact, it's not much of a stretch to think that PSU has played its best football since Tom Bradley took over in the wake of Joe Paterno's firing. They're simultaneously looser and more focused, if that's even possible.
Also, Bret Bielema Is A Douche. Not particularly controversial, but it needs to be reiterated regularly. His greatest crime against Penn State remains the 2006 kickoff controversy during a lifeless 13-3 PSU loss at Camp Randall, for which Wisconsin has since paid dearly:
The composite score of the two games following Bielema's kickoff shenanigans? 86-14. The teams didn't play in 2009 or 2010. Also, a friendly reminder:
Dirty Secrets. Wisconsin can be run upon. Ohio State had few difficulties running against the Badgers, and it's not like the Buckeyes have anything approaching an advanced passing game. Illinois was competent enough on the ground last week. It can be done. Overall, Wisconsin is sixth in the Big Ten in rushing yards allowed per game. Their passing defense? Much, much better. They lead the league in pass efficiency defense and interceptions during conference play, despite not having a huge pass rush (sound familiar?).
Let's Get Special. Oddly, Wisconsin has only attempted five field goals since the beginning of Big Ten play, making four. Anthony Fera may have been Penn State's best player last week in Columbus, and a little more directional punting against the Badgers might not be a bad idea. They're #1 leaguewide in punt returns -- if there's any under-the-radar player that should scare you for Wisconsin, it's Jared Abbrederis. Conversely, Wisconsin has the worst kickoff defense in the league.
Rose Bowl Or Muffler Bowl. These are sadly the two choices for Penn State at this juncture. Either do this:
Else be banished to the Muffler Bowl or some similar late-December filler in Texas.
Trickery. Penn State busted out the Wildcat against Ohio State to great surprise and effect last week in Columbus, and there is little doubt that they'll use it again tomorrow at Camp Randall. What new wrinkles will be thrown in? I can't particularly speak for Bill Belton's arm, but Curtis Drake can throw the ball. Penn State has shown a willingness to give not one damn with respect to playcalling since the scandal broke. If a reverse pass from Drake to Matt Freaking McGloin didn't kill Joe Paterno, lung cancer doesn't have much of a chance. Also, if Jay Paterno and Galen Hall can pull the proper levers at the correct time, things will get mighty interesting.
Okay, This SuePa Pool Mini-Scandal. I mean, what the hell. Now the Patriot-News is reporting that it was a football facility which Sue Paterno was asked to leave on Wednesday, not the Natatorium.
The story created online chatter about the Penn State Natatorium's holiday schedule. When university spokesman Bill Mahon said Thursday that Sue Paterno was not turned away from the Natatorium - because the facility is closed for Thanksgiving - it created the impression that The Patriot-News' original story was wrong.Our story was correct. Sue Paterno never even went to the Natatorium. She always works out at the football building's pool and that is the pool she was asked to leave.
Now, the Paternos are talking with Intercollegiate Athletics about their ability to continue using the pool and other facilities in the Lasch football building, Mahon said. Discussions are underway to work out those details.
Now, seriously. Penn State. Let's be real here. You allowed Jerry Sandusky to parade around your football facilities for a decade -- at a minimum -- after it was rather clear to everybody in power that he was up to something awful. Now we're drawing the line at Sue Paterno taking a few laps in a pool? Really? How dumb, bitter, and petty does this need to be?
Elsewhere In Scandaldom. The Washington Post plays referee in a spat between the Patriot-News and New York Times on the issue of detail over-inclusion and how much information about the victims needs to be published. (Answer, as always in sex cases: bare minimum. This is seriously a question?)
And honestly, I'll side with the Patriot-News all day long on this story, considering my only contact with the NYT was this form letter (sent to my Run Up The Score email address, and addressed "Dear Run Up"), which was also received by friends of mine who don't even write about Penn State sports:
My name is ____________ and I'm with the NY Times. I'm trying to do some reporting on Mike McQueary, and saw you made a comment about him in a chatroom that you'd known him for a while.I'm trying to learn about the guy, what he's like, where he's from, what kind of guy he is. He's taken a lot of flak in some press over what he saw in the Sandusky scandal, but from reading what people like yourself say about him, he sounds almost like a cool-headed superhero guy.
I've never said that I've known Mike McQueary for a while. I do not think he is a cool-headed superhero guy.
Someday, we at BSD will have to collectively write about the weird media, PR, and spinmasters who have tried to get us on their side of the issues. So many people trying to capitalize on this tragedy for their own purposes, not to mention trying to manipulate the opinions published on the front page here. It's been too weird.
Oh, the game. Sorry.
Prediction In GIF Form?
This will have to be a bit of a theft by Penn State, not that the Lions aren't capable of such a feat. Wisconsin has been vulnerable at times, but let's be real: they have a mashing rushing offense, a wildly efficient passing offense, and an excellent pass defense. Their field goal kicker is very good, and they have excellent kick return personnel.
Penn State will need a number of things to break their way. One of them is running enough plays to keep Wisconsin out of rhythm offensively. Moving the chains with the Wildcat (and other gimmicky stuff) and being at least +2 in turnover margin will be essential. Winning the special teams battle, as Penn State did against Ohio State, is another must. It's a lot to ask.
Winnable? Yes. The game is winnable. Alas.
Wisconsin 27, Penn State 17.
Finally. Enjoy your leftovers and naps. My guy certainly did.
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Weather
It’s going to be wet Saturday. Who will that favor?
I'm a big fan of the transitive property in this game
OSU beat Wisconsin. We beat OSU. Hence, we beat Wisconsin.
In all honesty, though, I have much more faith in a win than at 3:00 last Saturday. I like the Wildcat. If Wiscy can’t stuff a normal run, how are they going to stop the ’Cat? I would like to see Drake and Belton throw a couple of times out of it to add another dimension.
If the defense can contain Russell Wilson and can stand up Montee Ball like they have every rusher other than Burkhead this year (Richardson was taken care of nicely, I thought), I can see this team pulling out a win.
Penn State – 23 (on 3 Fera 40-yarders) Wisconsin – 17
Follow my antics: @DanVecellio
Its the name on the front of the jersey that matters most, not the one on the back. -Joe Paterno
It was a circle with Nebraska and OSU
so therefore I think we can logically remove Nebraska from the transitive property discussion ;)
Fire Dan Snyder
I don't remember that rule or corollary in last math class I took!!!
But PSU will still win – no doubt.
I'm not rationalizing - I'm being totally irrational
70% of rain, eh?
I’m taking Penn State 10 – Wisconsin 6…
Neither team gets much going. A lot of people seem to think rain means running the ball, which is somewhat true. However, rain also means poor traction, so it’s harder to make cuts (defenders can take a more aggressive direct line to the carrier) and it’s harder to drive the pile for yards after contact. There’s also the increased likelihood of fumbles from the wet ball and the more solid contact between defender and carrier.
Here’s the thing about the two offenses… Wisconsin is very much a rhythm team, relying on steady progress. In their two losses, Wisconsin struggled to get going on offense before putting points on the board in the 4th quarter and both of those were in good weather. Penn State on the other hand seems perfectly capable of going 3 and out every drive, except for one where they go 75 yards for a touchdown.
Penn State comes out and knocks Wisconsin around with a few short drives (3 and out or only 1 first down). Wisconsin gets frustrated and while it does start to move the ball a little bit, Penn State’s defense bends but doesn’t break.
Am I insane? Yes.
Do you have a problem with it? No.
Man, if this isn't the perfect description of this team, I don't know what is.
Penn State on the other hand seems perfectly capable of going 3 and out every drive, except for one where they go 75 yards for a touchdown.
@JPosnanski - I saw a girl crying tonight. When I asked why she said: "Because everybody lost."
#OccupyESPN
by Adam Collyer on Nov 25, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
No doubt.....
I had the distinct pleasure of seeing Slayer, Anthrax, Megadeth, and Alice In Chains w/ Layne Staley by the way, in Cleveland back in the early 90s. Great show.
"Distinction will be his paramount object, and although he would as willingly, perhaps more so, acquire it by doing good as harm; yet, that opportunity being past, and nothing left to be done in the way of building up, he would set boldly to the task of pulling down."
-Abraham Lincoln
Eric Watters
Atlanta, Ga.
lol..
Tom Araya’s vocals are an acquired taste for sure. I used to think the same thing, but surprisingly the more I listened to them (for the music) the more the vocals grew on me.
"Distinction will be his paramount object, and although he would as willingly, perhaps more so, acquire it by doing good as harm; yet, that opportunity being past, and nothing left to be done in the way of building up, he would set boldly to the task of pulling down."
-Abraham Lincoln
Eric Watters
Atlanta, Ga.
Agreed on needs
Especially re: running enough plays. In that respect, this game could most closely resemble the Iowa game this year. Eat some motherfucking clock, yos.
Also, got links on the Wapo/NYT/HPN shite?
Wow.
Fascinating and, like so much of all these related stories, fairly complex. WaPo as ref indeed. I’m still not sure where I’d side in this spat, other than what you rightfully point out—in general, it’s probably best to only include the bare minimum. I think I read three core issues at play between the three orgs:
1. Do the details serve the story?
I think WaPo made good case here that NYT’s details did indeed show how the boy was allegedly befriended & assaulted and, as such, conveyed value to the reader:
In addition to conferring news value, the story’s deep reporting layers in the value of a primer: Here, parents, is how an alleged child molester maneuvers. Take heed.
2. Are the details dangerous to revealing the boy’s identity?
I’m with WaPo here and can’t tell if they did or did not, or if context & enough info was already known:
Could the Times have killed a few fine points in the story to diminish the boy’s exposure to Google? Perhaps. Could those details have been spared without harm to the story? That’s less clear, but probably so. Keep in mind, though, that the boy’s high-school community doesn’t need Google or the New York Times—-it already knew who he was and the role he has played in the Sandusky case.
3. Was HPN Editor David Newhouse grandstanding in writing his editorial? I think WaPo lays this one out most clearly:
If Newhouse had really been so committed to preserving the privacy of Victim One, he would have penned a quiet e-mail to the Times’s public editor and returned to his duties. If he had wanted to grandstand, moralize and proclaim to his readers that he didn’t get beat on the Victim One story, then he would have done exactly what he did.
Still, the HPN & Sarah Ganim in particular, have been killing these stories. I think the truth(s) are in good hands as long as they (and the other reporting media like NYT who remain working on it) continue to do the important digging & reporting. It sure doesn’t feel like the coverage is missing anything now that ESPN is no longer interested.
To 99 percent of the coverage on The Tragity
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=082KfTzWOxE&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Especially the guys in Cinci trying to get me to help them outrage over pimping.
The spread in this game is very high and i have no idea why. On average this is very bad thing, but im still highly optomistic.
by Kevin Powers on Nov 25, 2011 3:24 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Me too, optimistic, that is
We clearly don’t operate like a smooth-running machine like Wiscy often does, but we’re still very talented and match up with them rather well. That they’re trotting out a first-time starter at Center and their interior line has so recently been shuffled gives a huge advantage to two of our biggest playmakers: Jordan Hill & Devon Still.
Do we have enough first downs on offense? Enough clock-eating drives? Enough freakin points? I think they’re there. They’ve been dormant a lot this season, but it sounds like Scrap is dedicated as fuck to bring them out, and I think in his 3rd week on the job, he succeeds.
Pre Nebraska, I thought we'd lose this game 38-14
Post Ohio State, feeling 24-17 or 28-20, something like that.
Tom Bradley- Bringing back Success with Honor since 11/9/11 (Since the BoT aren't)
Forget the 409 wins and 2 national championships. Joe Paterno helped mold thousands of young men into productive members of our society.
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Nov 25, 2011 3:38 PM EST reply actions
This is head, shoulders, and better part of a torso the best defense Wisconsin has seen this year
and if PSU can score 20 in one half against OSU, Wisconsin shouldn’t be a problem
PSU 27 Wisconsin 10
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, until PSU sees them in basketball and wrestling
Beat Wisconsin
Oh c'mon, our D isn't head & shoulders better than MSU's or Ohio State's
Though they certainly are better, that much is decided.
Tom Bradley- Bringing back Success with Honor since 11/9/11 (Since the BoT aren't)
Forget the 409 wins and 2 national championships. Joe Paterno helped mold thousands of young men into productive members of our society.
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Nov 25, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Look at PSU's defensive S&P+ compared with the average offensive S&P+ of our opponents
then look at the same for MSU and OSU. Yeah, that much.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, until PSU sees them in basketball and wrestling
Beat Wisconsin
I see S&P+ and my brain shuts off
I really have no idea what that is, but I’ll assume it’s effective because it’s not some contrived national ranking.
Tom Bradley- Bringing back Success with Honor since 11/9/11 (Since the BoT aren't)
Forget the 409 wins and 2 national championships. Joe Paterno helped mold thousands of young men into productive members of our society.
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Nov 25, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
It's basically a way of measuring the "successfulness" of an average play
PSU’s is significantly better than OSU or MSU’s, which is even better considering that our defense is (1) on the field more, sadly and (2) facing better offenses on average than either.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, until PSU sees them in basketball and wrestling
Beat Wisconsin
Where can I see these stats? They sound pretty informative.
Tom Bradley- Bringing back Success with Honor since 11/9/11 (Since the BoT aren't)
Forget the 409 wins and 2 national championships. Joe Paterno helped mold thousands of young men into productive members of our society.
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Nov 25, 2011 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
a note: S&P+ is not adjusted for schedule.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, until PSU sees them in basketball and wrestling
Beat Wisconsin
Thanks yo
Tom Bradley- Bringing back Success with Honor since 11/9/11 (Since the BoT aren't)
Forget the 409 wins and 2 national championships. Joe Paterno helped mold thousands of young men into productive members of our society.
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Nov 25, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
You pansies!
We’re gonna kick them in the pants!
Wisconsin’s run defense is mediocre, their offense has been contained by defenses which aren’t at our level, and we’re better than them.
I’m sick and I don’t need to justify my opinions because I don’t care and because we’re going to win.
Barry Davis is literally the only good thing about the state of Wisconsin!
"Woop woop." - Waylon Jennings
by ReadingRambler on Nov 25, 2011 4:39 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Oh
And as for Wisconsin’s fancy pass defense, Illinois had several opportunities for plays downfield but they typically ended with underthrows. When the score was 21-17 (I think), O’Toole badly underthrew a wide open Jenkins and a touchdown turned into an interception.
Wisconsin will win if we turn the ball over more than two or three times because they do capitalize on turnovers.Thankfully, I don’t see them forcing a lot of turnovers.
One more thing: if Wisconsin gets away with homefield holding, look out.
"Woop woop." - Waylon Jennings
by ReadingRambler on Nov 25, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
They also have some of the nations top LB's, which will be a whore to run on.
It’s one game. I’m still not buying into our OL just yet.
Tom Bradley- Bringing back Success with Honor since 11/9/11 (Since the BoT aren't)
Forget the 409 wins and 2 national championships. Joe Paterno helped mold thousands of young men into productive members of our society.
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Nov 25, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
You must be loopy!
Borland is good, the rest of those guys are no better than Capone or Lauriniatis. And they’re certainly no better than defenses we’ve already ran well against.
"Woop woop." - Waylon Jennings
by ReadingRambler on Nov 25, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Mike Taylor is a tackling machine. Not a play maker, and not ultra athletic, but yeah, he's kinda Laurinaitis--esq
The only LB corp I’d put over them is Alabama’s.
Tom Bradley- Bringing back Success with Honor since 11/9/11 (Since the BoT aren't)
Forget the 409 wins and 2 national championships. Joe Paterno helped mold thousands of young men into productive members of our society.
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Nov 25, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Here's how I'm reading this:
Mike Taylor makes lots of tackles five yards downfield and that’s only if he can get off the block and he probably won’t do so consistently and you just compared them to Alabama’s and now I know you’re crazier than me and that’s really saying something.
"Woop woop." - Waylon Jennings
by ReadingRambler on Nov 25, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Nah, they're not 5 yards downfield
More like 1-2 yards off the LOS. 8 behind the line. He does make a lot of gang tackles though and that over inflates stats. He’s still a good LB.
And I said the only group that’s better is Alabama’s. And they are. Not saying they’re on their level.
Tom Bradley- Bringing back Success with Honor since 11/9/11 (Since the BoT aren't)
Forget the 409 wins and 2 national championships. Joe Paterno helped mold thousands of young men into productive members of our society.
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Nov 25, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Dude.
If Wisconsin’s linebackers were as good as you’re saying, then they’d have much better rushing defensive stats than what they possess.
"Woop woop." - Waylon Jennings
by ReadingRambler on Nov 25, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Opponents are only averaging 3.75 YPC
Penn State’s are averaging 3.37. It’s not a huge difference, and one that’s mostly reliant on Wisky having lolworthy DL. Especially at rushing the passer, but that’s a separate issue.
Tom Bradley- Bringing back Success with Honor since 11/9/11 (Since the BoT aren't)
Forget the 409 wins and 2 national championships. Joe Paterno helped mold thousands of young men into productive members of our society.
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Nov 25, 2011 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
Basically, what I’m getting here is that Wisconsin’s linebackers make some tackles for loss but generally make tackles a couple of yards downfield while not making a whole lot of big plays ala our defense.
I’m not impressed.
"Woop woop." - Waylon Jennings
by ReadingRambler on Nov 25, 2011 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
They make less big plays
I don’t know what you’re quantifying a couple yards downfield as, but it’s usually not their fault. It’s next to impossible to make stops at the LOS when you’re occupied by the fullback as the RB goes through a rather wide open hole.
Tom Bradley- Bringing back Success with Honor since 11/9/11 (Since the BoT aren't)
Forget the 409 wins and 2 national championships. Joe Paterno helped mold thousands of young men into productive members of our society.
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Nov 25, 2011 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
SI is terrible and attention wanting
I stopped reading after he compared us to the catholic church.
Tom Bradley- Bringing back Success with Honor since 11/9/11 (Since the BoT aren't)
Forget the 409 wins and 2 national championships. Joe Paterno helped mold thousands of young men into productive members of our society.
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Nov 25, 2011 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
In the past four games, the defense has done this in terms of yards/rush allowed
2.54
3.84
3.94
4.79
This is troubling.
I saw a girl crying tonight. When I asked why she said: "Because everybody lost."
Black Shoe Diaries
@runthedive
Different scenarios though
Most of those come from option attacks, and in Ohio State’s case, Brax’s run’s, which should be quantifiably different than what Wisconsin hits us with, and can hit us with
Tom Bradley- Bringing back Success with Honor since 11/9/11 (Since the BoT aren't)
Forget the 409 wins and 2 national championships. Joe Paterno helped mold thousands of young men into productive members of our society.
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Nov 25, 2011 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
This has been my fear, too.
As I posted in another thread PSU has struggled somewhat with good backs. Wisky has the best back in the conference who should be getting more consideration for the Heisman. I hope I’m wrong, but I keep seeing this guy keeping drives alive by moving the chains.
As for SuPa getting booted from the pool, I’ll say it again: I have NEVER in my life seen a guy (Paterno) and now even his family piled upon so much. It’s like he’s worse than Hitler. So sad…
No shit - the local media out here in Seattle even sent a guy to dig up more shit...
The Renee Portland (WBB coach ) lesbian thing from years ago – bringing that back to the mix.
I'm not rationalizing - I'm being totally irrational
Unreal, but not surprising.
That has NOTHING whatsoever to do with any of the Sandusky Scandal. It’s just more cheap piling on.
Oh but it's a fine example...
of how insular the sports culture is at Penn State.
On a somewhat related note, I made the mistake of thinking the Chronicle of Higher Education would have some different stances on the subject – big mistake looking for the opinions of eggheads who think all college sports should be abolished. Anyway, I ran across an editorial on there, harping on the Rene Portland debacle, by Molly Yanity – why do I know that name? Did she used to be a Collegian writer? …or did she have a vote in the AP poll at one point?
I’ll tell you why. Because we’re talking about Joe Freaking Paterno here.
-Jitterbug
by leeharvey418 on Nov 25, 2011 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
Cute little guy Chris
Carbs must have got to him!!!
I'm not rationalizing - I'm being totally irrational
question
If Bradley gets head job….think he lobbies to get Pitt back on schedule every year? W his western pa connections think he’d push it hard?
by va2pennstate on Nov 25, 2011 8:32 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
I think it's all about economics (cash money) and opportunities
Time will tell
I'm not rationalizing - I'm being totally irrational
Yep. You're right, it is economics.
Pitt & WVU are finding that out. It so frustrating to hear the Pgh media lament how the “Backyard Brawl” may not be able to continue due to WVU & Pitt going to different conferences, yet the fact that PSU and Pitt have been in different conferences for nearly 20 years doesn’t matter….to them it’s Joe’s and only Joe’s fault that the ANNUAL series ended.
Their hypocrisy is stunning.
And they will all scoff
When WVU fans complain that Todd Graham’s personal vendetta against Holgo is preventing them from renewing their rivalry.
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
by OctaShields on Nov 25, 2011 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Just read this article. You could easily substitute PSU in several places in it.
Some good quotes. Pederson says their fanbase isn’t united in caring about the game. Hmmmm….that sounds familiar.
Pitt wants to play other teams besides WVU. Hmmmm…sounds familiar.
Luck says Pitt needs WVU to fill their stadium….hmmmm..that sounds familiar.
Holgorsen says it’s out of his hands (wait…you mean the coach doesn’t dictate who his team plays?? Nonsense!!)
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/college/pitt/s_769003.html
The song for today is Need Your Love by Cheap Trick
Preferably the live version. Our game plan must be similar to this hard rock masterpiece. Perfectly constructed with a tension creating buildup and a surprising chorus with a bad ass jam out in the middle followed by a huge crescendo. Put that in football terms.
That’s all I have to say about it.
"It was an attrition football game and you know we like that."
Franco Harris:
"If I had to choose today between the moral integrity and character of Joe Paterno and the politicians and commentators criticizing him, I would pick Joe Paterno, hands down, no contest every time."
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