The Houston Cougar Defense: A Cornucopia Of Not So Great
Hey, we have a bowl game coming up! Did you know that? Do the players know that? Let's hope so! Penn State's opponent, the Houston Cougars, are unlike any team they played this year. A lot of the focus has been on Houston's offense, and rightly so. However, the Cougar defense will be just as important, so let's take a look at them, shall we?
Whenever discussing a particular team's offense or defense, I like to first take a look at the numbers. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Houston Cougar defense, in all its macabre glory.
Raw Numbers (National Rank)
Total Defense: 386.0 yds/game (63)
Rush Defense: 171.77 yds/game (78)
Pass Defense: 214.2 yds/game (46)
Scoring Defense: 23.1 pts/game (40)
Advanced Statistics
Defensive S&P+: 88.7 (99)
Rushing S&P+: 86.2 (101)
Passing: S&P+: 89.2 (88)
Standard Downs S&P+: 92.1 (86)
Passing Downs S&P+: 74.3 (117)
For an explanation of what these numbers mean, here is the breakdown from Football Outsiders:
The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:
Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.
Point of clarification regarding passing and standard downs. A "passing down" is:
2nd down and 8+ yards to go
3rd/4th down and 5+ yards to go
A "standard down" is anything that does not fit into the passing down criteria.
So what does it all mean?
Well, as you can see, Houston's raw numbers, which aren't even all that good, make their defense look better than it actually is. Houston has the great fortune of having a killing machine of an offense - an offense well versed at piling up video game numbers against Conference-USA defenses. By jumping out to huge leads, the offense has allowed the defense to almost exclusively play the pass. Their pass rush is good but not great, piling up 29 sacks on the season, the same number Penn State had.
Players to watch for.
Houston's best two players on defense are, surprisingly enough, a pair of senior linebackers. Sammy Brown finished third in the nation with 12.5 sacks this year, and Marcus McGraw ended the year with 131 tackles. These two are players of undeniable quality. Besides them, there isn't a lot to be scared of.
So what's the best way to attack them?
Well, any way seems to be fine. Considering the unholy mess that Penn State currently has at quarterback right now, I'd expect the game plan to lean heavily on Silas Redd and the rest of the running backs. However, they can't just run every play. Whoever's playing quarterback will need to be serviceable enough to keep Houston's defense honest. In Houston's only loss this year, Southern Miss had over 200 yards rushing, but also threw for almost 300 yards. Balance sure is nice, but it may not be a luxury that the Penn State offense has at the moment.
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"So what does it all mean?"
Great question. With the low octane PSU offense, mainly due to the putridness at qb, it’s hard to say if PSU can exploit this especially vulnerable Houston defense.
Obviously they have to keep the Houston offense off the field so they are definitely going to run the ball like mad. But that’s not exactly geared to a shootout type game, which is probably what will be needed (lots of scores) to win this game.
I almost hate to say this, but I wish McGloin wasn’t hurt for this game. This is the EXACT type of defense he does well against. Maybe Bolden will surprise me and step up big time, but he hasn’t shown anything this year that tells me he will.
Bottom line is this match-up scares me. PSU cannot afford to fall behind early on. This is one game where if they win the toss they need to elect to receive the ball.
Not a good shoeing for the House that Coach Norwood built
by PSUinOH on Dec 30, 2011 7:43 AM EST via mobile reply actions
* showing *
… Funniest spellcheck ever. It may have been a shoeing… out the door
by PSUinOH on Dec 30, 2011 7:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Not even close.
Best ever was when a co-worker sent out an email to the entire dept. and meant to write “Sorry for the inconvenience”, but must have had it spelled wrong and spell check corrected it to “Sorry for the incontinence”.
by J Breezy on Dec 30, 2011 8:28 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
One more player to watch on Houston's Defense
Cornerback DJ Hayden (#2) – He’s their playmaker in the secondary. Hayden is solid in both in run support and in coverage, evidenced by his leading the team in forced fumbles, passes deflected and pass breakups. Add in two interceptions, one for a touchdown, and he is a dangerous threat on the edge. He’s the likely candidate to cover Derek Moye on January 2nd. We’ll find out how good Moye is at run blocking in this game.
So, who will be our QB?
It sounds like McGloin is being constantly evaluated, so may or may not be available for Monday. Drake is not traveling, of course, so that leaves Bolden (OH, NO!), MacGregor (?), Belton (also ????), and the kid who normally sits in seat 12-E in section SC of Beaver Stadium.
How do you guys see our QB situation shaping up?
"Make haste to reassure us, I beg you, and tell us that our fellow citizens understand us, support us, and protect us as we ourselves are protecting the glory of the Empire.
"If it should be otherwise, if we should have to leave our bleached bones on these desert sands in vain, then beware the fury of the Legions."
Bolden, by default.
But like Peter said, expect a heavy dose of Silas and Co. out of the backfield, as well as some of those wildcat looks we saw from Belton.
___
Black Shoe Diaries
SBN - Pittsburgh
Success With Honor
by Jeff Junstrom on Dec 30, 2011 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
Junny's right . . .
McGloin has zero reps and we’re two days out. He won’t play.
"The limits of my language mean the limits of my world" -- Ludwig Wittgenstein
No, Olsen Johnson is right!
"The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me God."
by DerryPharmer on Dec 30, 2011 9:12 AM EST up reply actions
I was talking with a few Houston fans on the ESPN board for this game.
The trolling is surprisingly low, and any attempts get squashed by both PSU and UH fans. Although you do have your standard “I’m a special PSU insider and this is gonna be a big name coaching hire but I can’t tell you who it is otherwise he might back out” guy.
They keep bringing up that S&P+ (and FEI, for that matter) is an invalid way to analyze anything about Houston, because of the way it throws out plays/drives where the the game isn’t deemed “competitive”. Looking at their schedule, this eliminates basically a few entire games and several second halves. This actually scares me a little bit. This is a team that thoroughly dominated their entire conference, a la Boise. I’m chalking up the C-USA championship game performance to a team that was already counting it as a win and looking forward to their BCS bowl.
But if I’m understanding the explanation of the statistics right, then if anything this likely makes Houston’s S&P+ numbers even better than they otherwise would be. By the 4th quarter, either the defense is pretty tired from being on the field for 40 min, or they have backups in. The numbers would probably be poorer if the every single play was counted.
"The only difference between a brown-noser and a shit head is depth perception"
-PSU_Lions_84
Going to be tough
They can throw, and our base D is soft cover 3. If Bolden starts, we may complete less than 10 passes. These are issues.
That said, PSU has the athletes on D to play tight cover 2 and the horses on D line to get pressure with 4. Let’s hope that the D has been able to focus and practice lots of cover 2 these past few weeks…no small task.
Prediction: PSU 27, UH 17. Two PSU rb’s go over 100 yards. PSU passes for less than 150. At least 5 Rational Lion plays run by belton, and at least 1 direct snap to Green.
by SkellerDweller06 on Dec 30, 2011 8:48 AM EST reply actions
Only 17 for Houston?
I wish I shared your optimism.
I think PSU is going to have to get north of 30 to have a chance of winning this game and accomplishing that is a tall task for this offense, especially with Bolden at qb.
Oh boy and......
yippee ki yeah!!!! Rob at QB throwing bounce passes to receivers and McG stating that, “with the benefit of hindsight, I wish I would have punched Drake first”…..and Silas having to run the ball 45 times because Dukes was late for a meeting and #21 was caught smokin’ and tokin’ and some of the team flunked and all of the 3-ring Circus revolving around a NO head coach and Joyner is a complete asshole and PSU has as much of a chance as being north of RTE30 than scoring 30 points and the D being on the field for 75% of the game…oh crap, I just can’t go on. Oh yes, I can…just wait until Mike Munchak gets here, he’ll kick ass and take names. Oh wait I mean Cowher. My barber’s cousin’s brake mechanic told him that he could take that to the bank. Ah, I love a good, unreasonable lyin’ rant in the morning….it’s like the smell of napalm.
"The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me God."
by DerryPharmer on Dec 30, 2011 9:09 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Someone's cup is half full this morning, lol
"The only difference between a brown-noser and a shit head is depth perception"
-PSU_Lions_84
Half full of what.....
is the operative question…..actually I am really clear headed and have not yet started drinking today….it was just a rant since I am really feeling “bad” about this bowl contest….In my heart I am all PSU, but my spleen says otherwise.
"The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me God."
by DerryPharmer on Dec 30, 2011 9:29 AM EST up reply actions
There's your problem right there...
you haven’t not started drinking.
In all seriousness, I have had more mood swings since November than I’ve probably had over the last 10 years. I’ve got me a hair trigger these days. And I don’t think I’ve been drinking any more (or less) than usual.
This morning I do not share your pessimism (realism?), but that’s probably just because I haven’t had enough coffee to wake up completely yet.
by BNittsDeMilo on Dec 30, 2011 10:05 AM EST up reply actions

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