Penn State Basketball: How Far Can They Advance?
by BSD on Mar 14, 2011 8:00 AM EDT
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So now that the drama of the bubble watch is finally over, we can take a moment and break down Penn State's chances to advance. Their first opponent is a familiar one, the Temple Owls.
The Owls played to a very impressive 25-7 record and went all the way to the Atlantic Ten Tournament championship semi-final game where they fell to the Richmond Spiders. Guard Ramone Moore leads them in scoring with 14.9 ppg, but four other players also average over ten points per game. So they are very versatile, but they aren't very deep.
The Owls have rather dominated the Nittany Lions in recent years, but the games were usually pretty close. Their last meeting was in the fall of 2009, and the Owls won 45-42.
If Penn State can get through the Owls, they will meet up with the winner of No. 2 seed San Diego State and No. 15 Northern Colorado. The Aztecs finished the year with a 32-2 record, but their schedule wasn't one like the Big Ten where you face a heavy hitting night after night. They're aren't a very big team, and they're not overly deep. So of all the No. 2 seeds, I think Penn State ended up in a very nice bracket.
I don't even want to think past the Sweet Sixteen at this point. Heck, I just want to get past Temple. If Penn State could do that it would be a tremendous boost to the program.
Ever wish that more things worked like college brackets? That you could seed everything that way? Top 64 pre-game foods. Top 64 college players. Well, now you can do just that with your friends, with the Allstate BFF Brackets, which takes your 64 top Facebook friends (an algorithm seeds them based on interaction) and seeds them in four regions, exactly like the real tourney. Once the tourney starts, your friends advance with the corresponding seeds – till one is left standing. Check it out at AllState BFF Brackets.
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SDSU is total party school
unlike PS…hmmm…oh yeah. Imagine the parties we’d throw together!
"Life is no way to treat an animal"
Gradulations, hoopsters!
In celebration of our first tourney appearance in ten years, and following the inspiration of Mr. Rosewater, please win that first game and give us this dream party with San Diego State!
jtothetweet
"Cats been getting hookups on tatts since back in '01". - former buckeye Antonio Pittman
Paaaarrrttttaaayyyyy!!!!
"Life is no way to treat an animal"
by Mr. Rosewater on Mar 14, 2011 12:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Fortunately for me my wife is an SDSU alum
Believe me, they kick our ass partywise.
As for the 2nd round match up, I have the advantage since I’ve been bottle feeding the kids on the blue and white kool-aid since birth.
Go State, smite the owls!
by Frank O'Brien on Mar 14, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
your wife sounds hot!
Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain and most fools do.
Benjamin Franklin
If we don't make it past the first round
Can we finally blame Temple?
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
by psume06 on Mar 14, 2011 8:53 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Oh, absolutely.
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
Fighting the Battle of Who Could Care Less since 12/29/09
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Mar 14, 2011 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I said it last night and I'll say it again
If PSU gets past Temple (and I think they will), I like PSU’s Elite Eight chances. Real Record says PSU (34-5) is better than Mizzou (27-3) or Cinci (28-0).
And at what point will UConn’s reliance on a freshman to play 40 minutes and win close games in the final seconds against a string of top 50 teams finally result in a loss? My guess is either against PSU or before then.
SDSU is still a mid major who barely won the 7th best league. A league closer to the CAA (10th best in most of the computers) than the SEC. And Cheatin’ Steve Fisher is the coach. MICHIGAN HATE
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
I saw the bracket the same way
I’m more concerned about being tripped up by Temple than I am SDSU. I think if PSU can make it past the Owls we can make a return the sweet 16, no doubt about it. Really trying not to get ahead of myself, but we got a great seed.
Anyone starting a BSD bracket?
I get the paper. I go to the bathroom. I take the paper in there and I scan it. I look at it. The first thing I do is look at who died. All right. Second thing I look at are headlines. Something that says, "Paterno is the Greatest," I read it. -JVP
by wek5000lion09 on Mar 14, 2011 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Awesome, Thank you Adam Shell!
I get the paper. I go to the bathroom. I take the paper in there and I scan it. I look at it. The first thing I do is look at who died. All right. Second thing I look at are headlines. Something that says, "Paterno is the Greatest," I read it. -JVP
by wek5000lion09 on Mar 14, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I feel the password will be
eddechellisisthegreatest
I'm on the Internet cause I'm an Internet thug.
I wonder what he thinks of all this
wait, no I don’t.
I'm on the Internet cause I'm an Internet thug.
by skarocksoi on Mar 14, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Probably something like
Ohio State killed us. Yesterday just showed us how far away we are from being ELITE. If we’re excited about 10 seeds and losing in the first round, we suck.
I'm starting to resign myself to the idea
that PSU basketball does two things on their way to the shower every morning: beat Northwestern and lose to OSU
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
by ckmneon on Mar 14, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i tell myself...
that tOSU is just running dirty revenue sports so its unfair to really gauge yourself against them.
let's go state
that was a pretty good impression
I think you need to call us all “idiot homers” and tell us to “take of the blue/white glasses” if we “think otherwise” though. That would really complete the whole persona.
I'm on the Internet cause I'm an Internet thug.
Nah. That post would be too long.
Better to have one-line insults that are completely illogical and subjective.
"I don’t spend a lot of time dwelling on the negative. I believe that having a good, peaceful mind is the basic premise for a good life."
by Adam Collyer on Mar 14, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Mcgloinshouldntbeastarter
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
by psume06 on Mar 14, 2011 11:22 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You will all feel the dominance of my bracket!
"I don’t spend a lot of time dwelling on the negative. I believe that having a good, peaceful mind is the basic premise for a good life."
by Adam Collyer on Mar 14, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
Make no mistake, even though Real Record predicts a win over Temple, and a 7/10 upset is hardly an upset at all, I am in no way guaranteeing a win over Temple. But if PSU does beat Temple, I honestly like PSU’s Elite Eight chances more than Pitt’s
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
SE region
Is a joke. If Pitt doesn’t make it to the final four, its because they can’t win the big one, not because they play anyone good. Florida, BYU are waaaay overseeded. Wisconsin and KSU arent great. Toughest matchup for Pitt might be SJU, and they might not survive round 1!
by Tailgate Shogun on Mar 14, 2011 10:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Eh
Pitt has a RR of 54-0, easily the best in their region, and without question, Florida is the weakest 2 seed on the board with a RR of 51-7.
Wisconsin’s is an impressive-if-not-gaudy 36-0 and Kansas State’s is a mystifyingly-mediocre-for-a-5-seed 32-4 (wow. KSU would be picked to lose to PSU). That much is in Pitt’s favor.
But I say this about Pitt: their RPI (#10) wreaks of 3 seed, and the teams seeded 2-5 in their bracket all have at least one win over a team with a better RPI, and all have multiple wins over teams in the top 12 in RPI. Pitt has a very, very tough road to the Final Four.
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
I think this might be a misuse of real record
I think in the tournament, it’d be valuable to count losses against top 50 teams, since that’s who you’ll be playing. An undefeated real record means you didn’t lose to any bad teams – but you won’t be playing bad teams anymore. The wins are still valuable info though.
by OctaShields on Mar 14, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Legit point, especially for the second round and beyond
There are plenty of teams with RPIs outside the top 50 in the opening / first round
I may have to investigate which of the 3 predictors that RR generates is the individual best predictor.
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
Don't want to be a downer...
But all of you underestimating SDSU do so at your own peril. I put a lot of faith in KenPom’s efficiency rating system which justifies PSU (39) as a 10 seed and actually essentially has us in a pick em game with Temple (38). That being said, SDSU is ranked 6th in the country by the same metric and to say they haven’t played anyone is ridiculous. They beat Gonzaga, UNLV twice New Mexico twice and St. Mary’s and BYU once. All of those teams are top 50. They only lost twice all year…to BYU both times.
I’m not saying Penn State can’t win but they will be HUGE underdogs and as great a season as its been I don’t think we need to all the sudden fall under some kind of spell that we are better than we are. We are a 10 seed for a reason and SDSU had a legitimate argument to be a one seed let alone a 2.
by phanatic's phloozies on Mar 14, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree. That said, I'd rather be 10-seed PSU than any other 10 seed. I'd rather play SDSU than many of the top rated teams.
No one really expects us to do much of anything. We’re in the “Happy to be here” crowd. But if we were going to go on a run, this is the region to do it in.
"I don’t spend a lot of time dwelling on the negative. I believe that having a good, peaceful mind is the basic premise for a good life."
by Adam Collyer on Mar 14, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
i agree
mid-majors have spent a decade+ showing that you should underestimate them at your own peril. i would rather match up with sdsu than with unc or uf or even nd but they have been a very good team all year.
honestly, let’s worry about temple first b4 we start predicting elite 8 runs
let's go state
In no way do I disagree
but I will ask this: wouldn’t Wisconsin or Purdue have done every bit as well, if not better, in that league? PSU was one bad call away from 3-2 against them on the year.
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
so hard to say
basketball teams dont require a lot of players and the game is accessible so talent is a lot flatter than in a sport like football where roster size and game accessibility create a greater talent disparity between top teams and everyone else.
purdue would have been top 10 if not for the hummel injury. i don’t think wisc is that good so to compare them subjectively is hard.
hopefully we get the chance to find out first hand just how talented SDSU is.
let's go state
So who is filling out 2 brackets?'
Their Penn State Homer bracket, imagining us winning the championship on a last second shot by Talor Battle Billy Oliver
and
a more reasonable bracket?
Dark Knight feeling, die and be a hero-or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.-Jay-Z
I'll be doing 3 I guess
I usually do 1 just on pure hunches and gut feeling, and then 1 where I do a little research. So I’ll add 1 more where we win it all.
I'm on the Internet cause I'm an Internet thug.
KenPom log5
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=673
PSU has a roughly 49% chance of beating Temple, a 1/1407 chance of winning it all, and a 5.5% chance of making the Elite 8 according to him.
Seeing as how I would put PSU’s chances of beating Temple significantly higher than that (70.8%), that makes PSU’s chances of making the Elite 8 roughly equal to PSU’s chances of making the tournament after the second Michigan. That happened, so why not?
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
After the loss to Maine
If somebody would have told me that we had a 1/1407 chance at making the tournament, I would have said they were foolish.
It's even possible that Jim Tressel drinks out of the toilet
So you're telling me there's a chance...
I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed.
can Allstate
set up a BSD bracket, with seeds for each of us?
I’m taking Richard aceto all the way….
by Tailgate Shogun on Mar 14, 2011 10:40 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Pshaw
Highly ranked based on postseason conference tournament play? Yes.
Number one seed based on the past week of effort alone? No way.
(Also, whose work blocks ESPN but leaves CBSsports open? Mine, that’s who. Suckers.)
mine just started blocking ESPN today..
ticks me off because now I’ll lose the wrestling coverage later in the week.
Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain and most fools do.
Benjamin Franklin
I was surprised by this as well this AM
It's even possible that Jim Tressel drinks out of the toilet
mine blocked espn today as well
I never went there anyway, but I wanted to set up a bracket today and couldn’t. The one time I actually want to use that website…
I'm on the Internet cause I'm an Internet thug.
This Allstate BFF bracket
is going to destroy relationships. To those of you using Facebook to creep on the side, you are not in good hands.
Go Lions !! if
by Illegal Formation on Mar 14, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
2 years ago
I remember how the players felt like the physical play of the Big Ten prepared them for that NIT run. Hoping for something similar this year.
they also relied on...
talor battle and game tying 3 at the buzzer to take george mason to overtime at the bjc. its not like they steamrolled that tournament but did beat some quality programs on their way.
let's go state
If Battle doesn't make that 3, does Ed still have a job at PSU?
I’m not asking whether or not he should, but whether or not he does
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
good question
based on the lack of reactionary measures from our ath dept….i think it’s possible that ed would have gotten battle’s complete career anyway. although he got an extension after that and so you have to think that last years disaster might have been it.
still not the biggest dechellis fan from a on the court standpoint but ill trade a tournament appearance for another few years of letting him see what he can do.
let's go state
Texas is like USC or PSU, only better
They have thoroughly demonstrated their ability to both beat up on / hang with elite 1-2 seeded teams as well as lose to vastly inferior teams.
Any of those teams, at their best, is extremely dangerous. Any of those teams on a below average day would lose in the first or second round of the NIT.
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
I think it's legitimately possible that they lose in the 1st round.
I have them out to ’Zona on day 2.
"I don’t spend a lot of time dwelling on the negative. I believe that having a good, peaceful mind is the basic premise for a good life."
by Adam Collyer on Mar 14, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I feel Texas is incredibly overrated
It seems like every time I see any news about them, its how they dropped a game they shouldnt have. But I’m not really a basketball guy, so you should take whatever I say and do the opposite.
I'm on the Internet cause I'm an Internet thug.
Texas has a RR of 52-3
Considering that Florida has a RR of 51-7, North Carolina has a RR of 42-3, and they’re 2 seeds, yes, it appears as though Texas is a very dangerous 4.
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
Don't want to be a broken record but...
Texas comes in at #4 on KenPom. They lead all teams in defensive efficiency as well. Which tells me that they have the ability to beat anyone. They rely on a few freshman which might explain their less than stellar end of the year but its not as if they lost to crap teams either. Their worst losses were Nebraska (48) and Colorado (49) on the road late in the year. I actually really like them to give Duke a run for their money for an ultimate trip to the final four.
by phanatic's phloozies on Mar 14, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess the best way to put it is this
Texas’ ceiling is as high as anyone’s, it’s just that their floor seems a bit low too. I say “seems” because RR and Kenpom both say Texas would arguably be the 2nd best 2 seed, let alone 4.
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
I generally agree...
I think it is the youth that has stunted their growth some plus I have to believe Barnes struggles keeping his teams fired up all year long (they always suck at the end of the season).
That being said, they’ve been punished way to harshly for those few losses in my opinion…just like UConn, VCU and even to a small extend PSU has been rewarded a bit too much based on CT play. The fact remains though, if Texas is really a Final 4 caliber team (and I believe they are), it shouldn’t matter what seed they are.
by phanatic's phloozies on Mar 14, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
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