SB Nation Pittsburgh Editor's Pick
Phil Steele's All-Big Ten Teams and Reading Way too Much Into It
by ckmneon on May 28, 2011 8:27 PM EDT
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Phil Steele has released his all-Big Ten projections for 2011. I did some analysis-like stuff based on what I saw in it.
Image and tea leaf reading after the jump.
I awarded teams points based on the following arbitrary point system: 4 points for a first teamer, 3 for a second, 2 for a third, 1 for a fourth. The points:
1. Wisconsin - 36
2. Michigan State - 33
3. Penn State / Ohio State - 30
5. Iowa - 28
6. Northwestern - 27
7. Purdue / Michigan - 19
9. Illinois / Nebraska - 18
11. Minnesota - 8
12. Indiana - 5
And rank teams by the total number of selections:
1. Penn State - 14
2. Wisconsin - 13
3. Ohio State - 12
4. Michigan State / Northwestern - 11
6. Iowa - 10
7. Michigan / Purdue / Illinois / Nebraska - 8
11. Minnesota - 3
12. Indiana - 2
Ranked by average ranking of the two:
1. Wisconsin (1.5)
2. Penn State (2)
3. Michigan State / Ohio State (3)
5. Northwestern (5)
6. Iowa (5.5)
7. Michigan / Purdue (7)
9. Illinois / Nebraska (8)
11. Minnesota (11)
12. Indiana (12)
Things that become readily apparent / tea leaf reading:
--Phil seems to divide the 2011 Big Ten into 4 very specific tiers. The labels are mine, not his
The contenders: Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State. FWIW, I couldn't agree more on the latter 3. If one of those three doesn't win the Big Ten, I will be surprised.
Not quite contenders: Northwestern, Iowa. Phil seems to think these teams are very much candidates to be playing in New Year's Day bowl games, but not quite good enough to threaten for the league.
Bowl teams but not much better than that: Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska 7ish win teams. For Purdue, that's exciting. For Nebraska, that's a big disappointment. You're not in the Big 12 North anymore.
It could be another long year: Minnesota, Indiana. New coaches taking over bad teams. Not exactly a surprise.
--In spite of the avoidance of Michigan State, the scheduling gods have a thing against Penn State. Three of PSU's road games come against Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Northwestern, all three of which are teams Phil seems to think are decidedly top half teams, two of which Phil thinks are contenders. So yeah, the road to Lucas Oil Stadium is a bumpy one for PSU.
--7 of Penn State's 14 selections come from the first three teams of the defensive side of the ball. Should be a return to form for the PSU defense from a painfully average 2010.
--The top 6 and bottom 2 teams are both evenly divided amongst the two divisions, at least for this year.
--No Bolden or McGloin. Try to contain your shock. But when looking at the QBs who did get selected, it's hardly a slap in the face to them. They're all either extremely good college QBs (Robinson, Persa) or guys currently making draft gurus drool (Cousins, Martinez).
--No Pryor. This will do serious damage to his chances of a third straight preseason Big Ten POY award.
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Nice writeup
I think Phil is on the ball with this stuff, ad usual.
My qualms:
- putting Lynn anything less than 2nd team is a joke. Dude is way better than 3rd team
- Giving Sukay 3rd team is generous, but perhaps the B10 is not incredibly deep at safety
- I fully expect PSUs starting LBs to be in the first 3 teams by the end of the season – should be the best unit in the B10. Suck it O$U
- I think Nebraska is contender.
Also...
I expect Justin Brown to be 2nd or 3rd team B10 by the seasons end. He should have a big year with all the attention on Moye
by Artiefufkin10 on May 28, 2011 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah that is true...
If he can get it together, Moye and Brown will be the most dynamic WR tandem in the B10
by Artiefufkin10 on May 29, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, they will.
I meant to add that in my comment above. Those two should form a really good pair as they stand now. But if Brown has improved his hands, they should really cause a lot problems for opposing defenses.
My qualms
-Agree with you on Lynn. He’s at least a 2nd teamer
-Wisconsin might be a contender (I don’t think they are, but whatever), but it’s not because of talent. It’s because they get PSU and Nebraska at home, get OSU when their suspended players won’t have much recent game experience, and because one of their road games is Minnesota. I think they lost too much from 2010, but even if they didn’t, having to play OSU and MSU on the road and having PSU and Nebraska on the schedule will probably be too much for them.
I don’t think that Nebraska is a contender.
is there anyway i can redeem myself, i was not sure if i should say "we" at that moment
by Skins4ever on Feb 2, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Look at Wisconsin this way:
Of the top 7 teams in the league based on the composite rankings, Wisconsin plays 4 of them, but gets 2 at home (PSU, Purdue) and gets another with relatively green players (Ohio State). If that wasn’t the case, are they anywhere approaching a contender? I don’t think so.
is there anyway i can redeem myself, i was not sure if i should say "we" at that moment
by Skins4ever on Feb 2, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Noone reads the fanposts
This should be bumped to the front page. Excellent work, neon.
Agree with most comments so far, BUT… no mentions yet INRE the Crawford pick??? We all know the potential but we also know what we have seen up to now. I’m not really too knowledgeable on the conference’s other DEs but I personally could not put Crawford on any preseason watch list except for miscontain highlights.
That being said, Artie is spot-on.
I don't remotely get Mike Martin on the first team :/
Or how Marcus Hyde doesn’t get 1st team either. I agree with all the things people have said about PSU.
But I don’t agree with what you said about Wisky. Even w/o Tolzien, that O will still roll and they bring back a lot on D. And MSU, well, they’ll probably Iowa it up this year imo.
I AM PHIL DAVISON AND I WILL NOT APOLOGIZE FOR MY TONE TONIGHT
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on May 29, 2011 9:38 AM EDT reply actions
I realize I'm in the vast minority when it comes to Wisconsin
I’m certainly willing to concede the possibility that I’m wrong.
But looking at the list, they only have 2 defensive front 7 guys on the first three teams (FWIW, this is the exact same as Michigan), and one of their first teamers is a safety, which appears to be by far the weakest position in the Big Ten (as evidenced by the fact that both Nick Sukay and Drew Astorino were selected, and that Brian Peters of Northwestern is justifiably a 2nd teamer).
As far as the Wisconsin offense goes, we’ll just have to see. I don’t see how a team can lose a QB / RB combo as efficient and productive as Tolzien and Clay and not have some severe growing pains, especially when they’re in the same division as PSU (7 dudes on the first three defensive teams) and Ohio State (5 defensive front 7 guys selected).
is there anyway i can redeem myself, i was not sure if i should say "we" at that moment
by Skins4ever on Feb 2, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, with Wisky's RB's, I think it's the same as our RB situation
They lose some talent, but the replacements do have more potential. Budmayr, that is a step down from Tolzien. Good point on the front 7, but they still do return a majority of the starters. And safety, I dunno, I’ve always been a huge fan of Micah Hyde and his move to FS should give the Big Ten some top 100 talent there.
I AM PHIL DAVISON AND I WILL NOT APOLOGIZE FOR MY TONE TONIGHT
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on May 29, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
As for MSU
Like Wisconsin, they’re intriguing. Two of their cross-division games are Wisconsin and Ohio State, which sounds brutal until you realize that OSU’s suspended players won’t be dressed that game and Wisconsin is at home.
What’s rougher than it first appears is their last 5 games. Sure, there are games against Indiana and Minnesota, but there are also 3 road games at Iowa, Northwestern, and Nebraska. That’s a rough stretch. Rough enough to knock them out of the division title? I don’t think so, but I could certainly see it.
is there anyway i can redeem myself, i was not sure if i should say "we" at that moment
by Skins4ever on Feb 2, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
All three of those road games are losable too
And Minny could be one to watch out for,maybe, if Gray really is everything he’s hyped to be. If he’s accurate, then he could form a nice duoo w/Da’Jon McKnight (Who I feel is really underrated, and not just b/c of the game he had vs us last year.
I AM PHIL DAVISON AND I WILL NOT APOLOGIZE FOR MY TONE TONIGHT
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on May 29, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Wisconsin will be a tough matchup for most teams especially psu
Our front 4 will be the weakest in some time and I expect their OL/RB stable will give us all we can handle.
That said, with a new QB I don’t think they throw on us.
Just be glad that this guy exhausted his eligibility...
Matt Bernstein, he of the 123 yards on 27 identical HB dives…
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
Donna Noble has left the library. Donna Noble has been saved.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 29, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
True, true
And this time around PSU won’t have Aaron Maybin terrorizing your QBs.
It’s been a long time and I look forward to what should be B10 slugfest
by Artiefufkin10 on May 29, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Had to fix part of that
And this time around PSU won’t have Aaron MOTHERBLEEPING Maybin terrorizing your injured offensive tackles who were lost in suspicious circumstances in a gut-wrenching, horrible loss to Ohio State the week before.
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
Donna Noble has left the library. Donna Noble has been saved.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 29, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know how many times I've been able to say
that Penn State might have beaten a team if one guy on the other team had just been locked in a basement somewhere, but that’s one of them. Troy Smith in the 06 Ohio State game, Mike Hart in the 07 Michigan game, the refs at the 03 Boston College game, and Anthony Morelli at the 07 Illinois game come to mind.
The latter two examples weren’t supposed to be guys on the other team, but if you watch those games, you’ll see what I mean.
is there anyway i can redeem myself, i was not sure if i should say "we" at that moment
by Skins4ever on Feb 2, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wisconsin basically had no tailbacks other than Bernstein for that 04 game.
Bernstein, a 6-foot-3, 270-pound career fullback from Edgemont, N.Y., got stuck at tailback Saturday because of injuries to, well, every other Badger. Anthony Davis, a preseason Heisman candidate, is out with an eye injury. Doctors ended the career of Dwayne Smith, Davis’ backup, last month because of a congenital heart condition. Booker Stanley started against Penn State, but is hobbled by turf toe. Freshman Jamil Walker came in and suffered a shoulder injury.
When you knock out every guy EXCEPT the 270 lb. fullback who’s gashing the defense on what feels like every carry…it isn’t going to end well.
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
Donna Noble has left the library. Donna Noble has been saved.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 29, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
MIke Hart in 07'
Least favorite performance ever. God, I still remember the headlines from the paper the following day.
I AM PHIL DAVISON AND I WILL NOT APOLOGIZE FOR MY TONE TONIGHT
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on May 29, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
"MIke Hart in 07"
what did we ever do to that POS? He played that game like we burned down his house and raped his dog. Just nasty.
"I don't want to injure anybody," James Harrison said. "But I'm not opposed to hurting anybody."
"It was an attrition football game and you know we like that."
I remember watching him go absolutely nowhere in the 07 Wisconsin-Michigan game.
Lloyd decided to bench him, going with Brandon Minor instead. Wisconsin held Michigan to 47 rushing yards on 25 carries.
Aside from Michigan’s craptastic offensive performance against Ohio State the next week (where Chad Henne alone accounted for -20 of Michigan’s 15 rushing yards, no that’s NOT an error), that was their worst rushing effort of the entire season.
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
Donna Noble has left the library. Donna Noble has been saved.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 30, 2011 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
how nice for you
"I don't want to injure anybody," James Harrison said. "But I'm not opposed to hurting anybody."
"It was an attrition football game and you know we like that."
Hart's performance was overrated.
Best thing he did was not fumble. But his average ypc was abysmal in that game. He didn’t win that game for Michigan….PSU coaches lost it with that horrible game plan. Nothing says “we give up” like punting from your own 31.
Long played great
but Hart did the dirty work by himself. I don’t know how many 3rd and less than 3s PSU hit him well short of the first down, but somehow he made it. My guess is around 7.
is there anyway i can redeem myself, i was not sure if i should say "we" at that moment
by Skins4ever on Feb 2, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hadn't Bernstein also been fasting for Yom Kippur
leading up to that game? I remember the announcers mentioning it a few [dozen] times, and it made the fact that we couldn’t tackle him all the more frustrating.
Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've constructed.
I think thats true...
just an awful, awful year for PSU football….
by Artiefufkin10 on May 29, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
our defense wasn't even that bad that year.
That Penn State team was sorta the anti-2010 Michigan Wolverines: all defense, no offense. I’d maybe go so far as to say that the Michigan 2010 offense paired with the Penn State 2004 defense could go undefeated almost any year.
by The JuggerNitt on May 29, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
No doubt
They never allowed more than 20 points in any game, which is even more impressive when you consider just how miserable the PSU offense was in TOP (in only 2 games did PSU have the ball for over 32 minutes: MSU, which was a mildly impressive win, and OSU, where pick-6s skewed the stats a bit).
is there anyway i can redeem myself, i was not sure if i should say "we" at that moment
by Skins4ever on Feb 2, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you can always use the old....
“but you didn’t need to score more than 20 against PSU to beat them” excuse… but the continued dominance in 2005 sort of disproves that notion.
by Artiefufkin10 on May 29, 2011 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
How does Phil Steele choose...
are these the best players in the league? – or the guys that are supposed to have the best stats? Not always the same.
If DeVier Posey sits out 5 games I wouldn’t expect him to be in the 15 deep in any WR stats at years end, however I could argue that he is deserving of 2nd team WR based on his ability.
Unsupervised children will be given a case of 4loco and a basket of kittens
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