Ten Dollars To Burn: The Most And Least Accurate College Football Preseason Magazines
by Chris Grovich on Jul 20, 2011 5:00 PM EDT
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PrintOMG FOOTBALL SOON (seriously -- Big Ten Media Days are in the last week of July and fall practice is scheduled to start in the first week of August). Until then, we're still in prime preseason magazine territory on the 2011 calendar. Most of the mags are your standard, boilerplate issue with speculative fluff stories. Others are detailed to the point of degrading intellectual harassment, filled with acronyms that the standard fan doesn't remotely care to comprehend.
(Another is specific to your favorite team and are written by people you know and love. You should buy it now.)
Since 1993, one man has kept meticulous track of these magazines' accuracy: Ohio State partisan, Chris Stassen. His site is an essential resource for any college football fan, not only for the preseason mag information, but also for researching head-to-head records, records against a particular conference, wins and losses over a span of years, and so on (thanks to a link-up with another database run by James Howell). One particularly nice feature identifies which teams and conferences are overrated and underrated by comparing the preseason and postseason AP polls.
Last season, USA Today, Blue Ribbon/ESPN, Lindy's, and Athlon were the most accurate on a nationwide basis. The best performers specific to the Big Ten were USA Today, Blue Ribbon/ESPN, and GamePlan, followed closely by the ever-vilified CFN.
Here is the (incomplete) compilation for 2011:
| Rank | Team | Total Points |
TSN | Lindy | Athlon | Phil Steele |
Rogers Poll |
USA Today |
Blue Ribbon / ESPN |
| 1 | Ohio State | 11½ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2½ | 2 | 2 |
| 2 | Wisconsin | 12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | Penn State | 21 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Illinois | 27½ | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2½ | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Purdue | 33 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 6 | Indiana | 42 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 1 | Nebraska | 8½ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1½ | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | Michigan State | 14½ | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1½ | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | Iowa | 22 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Michigan | 29½ | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4½ | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 5 | Northwestern | 30½ | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4½ | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 6 | Minnesota | 42 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Confidence remains high for the leftovers in Columbus, which is interesting. Would've suspected a mass exodus to the Wisconsin bandwagon Winnebago after what happened to Ohio State this off-season. Penn State is a solid third choice in PIG. As for CORN, it seems to have fallen along the lines of what most of us also predict, although I'm a little higher on Iowa's and Sparty's chances than most. We've seen Nebraska's 2011 schedule, have we not?
Ultimately, we can pick and choose information from the Stassen site all day long, but we're here for Penn State, right? Of particular interest to me -- and you can take this in just about any direction in the comments -- is what was predicted prior to the Nittany Lions' most unforeseen results since 1993.
1994 (12-0): You'll note that nine out of the ten mags chose Michigan to be the top team in the conference (they finished 8-4). Wisconsin (8-3-1) and Penn State were a tight #2 and #3, respectively:
| Rank | Team | Total Points |
Lindy's | TSN | Athlon | C&PFN | Inside Sports |
Football Action |
Game Plan |
Street & Smith |
Feist | Preview |
| 1 | Michigan | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Wisconsin | 26 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | Penn State | 30 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Ohio State | 39 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Illinois | 46 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Michigan State | 66 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 7 | Indiana | 72 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 8t | Iowa | 82 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| 8t | Minnesota | 82 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| 10 | Purdue | 100 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| 11 | Northwestern | 105 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
1997 (9-3): Penn State was the clear #1 choice in the preseason, but blowout losses to Michigan (8-0) and Michigan State (4-4) torpedoed the season -- not to mention the eventual shorthanded bowl loss to Florida.
1999 (10-3): The Season That Got Away. Penn State started on the cover of Sports Illustrated's preview issue as the #1 team in the nation, and the other magazines were right there with SI. Wisconsin went to the Rose Bowl this year. Stassen's spreadsheet is too wide to copy, so you get the abridged version:
The Dark Years (2000-2004): At the very least, the media saw some trouble on the horizon for PSU after the '99 team lost a significant number of players:
Michigan, Purdue, and Northwestern all finished at 6-2.
In 2001, Phil Steele picked Penn State to win the Big Ten. Penn State! Phil Steele! #1! I had to refresh the page multiple times to make sure. Nobody else picked them to finish higher than sixth, which resulted in this:
Steele took a chance and got burned, at least relative to PSU. Despite this blunder, Steele was easily the most accurate overall in 2001. Illinois was your Big Ten champion at 7-1.
2002 (9-4): Penn State was picked to finish in the middle of the pack, and did.
2003 (3-9) and 2004 (4-8): Penn State was picked to finish in the middle of the pack, and:
Which brings us to 2005 (11-1). The media predicted tiers consisting of (1) Michigan and Ohio State, (2) Iowa and Purdue, then (3) a cluster of Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, rounded out by (4) the Chumps' Trio of Northwestern, Indiana, and Illinois. The Purdue pick (3-5) was a flop.
Who saw the Penn State renaissance coming? Nobody, which still remains the beauty of the thing. Not even we, the fans, really saw it coming. All of the more prominent prognosticators had Penn State, at best, in the middle of the pile: Sporting News, Lindy and Street & Smith picked Penn State to finish 5th; Phil Steele (T-6th), Athlon (8th) and others lagged behind.
Overall, according to Stassen's records, here is the preseason consensus of how Penn State was predicted to finish in the conference:
1st: 1997, 1999
2nd: 1993, 1996, 2009
3rd: 1994, 2008
4th: 1998, 2006, 2007, 2010
5th: 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005
6th: --
7th: 2004
8th: 2001
9th, 10th, 11th: --
Seems that we're best when stalking from the #3 or #4 spot. Adam Rittenberg notes a related trend in today's ESPN Big Ten Blog, at least in terms of the "official" selections that come from Big Ten Media Days.
The conclusion? Vague accuracy without accountability is sufficient to satisfy our collective thirst for college football discussion when June and July come around (see also: anyone who writes anything about college football). Also of note, Craig James allegedly killed five hookers during his time at SMU.
We're already Dustin Johnson-deep in the weeds here, so let's wrap this up. If you want to attack the data in a different way in the comments, please do.
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2001 was a complete preseason whiff.
3 of the top 4 consensus picks ended up with losing records, including The Big Ten media #1 selection Northwestern which finished 10th. Illinois was (ranked 7th on the Stassen List) actually won the title—one that would have been shared had the Lions stopped Kittner on that last minute drive, which if everything else remaining the same would have put them with a winning record, which wouldn’t make me mildly bitter about the missed opportunities from that season. But I digress.
Penn State actually finished 4th in the Big Ten that year with a 4-4 conference record.
Bloggin' at JoePasDoghouse.com
I just read Mike P's profile bio.
I have to say, I’m curious how you came to live with him and his wife?
BSD Wentworth
Co-Founding Partner
Chariman, Hiring Committee*
*Accepting Applications
by PSUinBOSSton on Jul 20, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
That is much simpler than the story I had in my head.
BSD Wentworth
Co-Founding Partner
Chariman, Hiring Committee*
*Accepting Applications
by PSUinBOSSton on Jul 20, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
What story did you have in mind?
I hope it wasn’t anything dirty, as Cairo is a dog.
"Choosing Penn State over Stanford, my god!!" - rumple
by ReadingRambler on Jul 20, 2011 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Never mind the fact
that it would be treading dangerously close to personally insulting my wife.
A Garden State Nittany Lion...
by Mike Pettigano on Jul 21, 2011 5:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I said it was SIMPLER than what I was imagining.
You guys are gross. Or Rambler is gross. Either way, the Pettigano’s and J.Schnauzer living in the same household? I smell a sitcom.
BSD Wentworth
Co-Founding Partner
Chariman, Hiring Committee*
*Accepting Applications
by PSUinBOSSton on Jul 21, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Virginia 2001
Were it not for a bad call in the 3rd quarter there might have been a bowl after that season. Of course had that game been played when it was originally scheduled (9-13-01) it very well may have been a blow out. PSU was truly horrible at the start of that season; no offense whatsoever against the U, Wisky and Michigan-all at home.
Brutal call
But insisting on throwing into 7 or 8 DBs was worse.
Washingtonian and Penn Stater -- My blog features the triumph of hope over experience that is being a DC sports fan (especially the Nats) as well as the Nittany Lions, life in BeltwayLand and other things I find interesting. @doubleuefwhy
On the flip side.
I think UVA had been hit with injuries early in the season and would not have been up to strength on that Thursday night game.
Bloggin' at JoePasDoghouse.com
"Who saw the Penn State renaissance coming? Nobody . . . ."
At least one person saw the renaissance coming.
Joe, who in 2004 before the MSU game told his players that they would win that game, then win the national championship the following season.
He was close.
(Posnanski’s piece still rests at the top of all that has been written about Joe.)
"Is that a shot at me? 'cause that makes me want to read it all the less."
And, it'd be even more fitting if I correctly placed Joe's comment as being before the Indiana,
not the MSU, game.
Nevertheless.
"Is that a shot at me? 'cause that makes me want to read it all the less."
This is true
You don’t even need to follow him on Twitter, Google Reader, whatever because somebody else you are following is going to RT/Rec him.
Washingtonian and Penn Stater -- My blog features the triumph of hope over experience that is being a DC sports fan (especially the Nats) as well as the Nittany Lions, life in BeltwayLand and other things I find interesting. @doubleuefwhy
Also, he's writing a book about Paterno this fall
He’ll be living in State College too
Washingtonian and Penn Stater -- My blog features the triumph of hope over experience that is being a DC sports fan (especially the Nats) as well as the Nittany Lions, life in BeltwayLand and other things I find interesting. @doubleuefwhy
Like Bonds and Bonilla on the Pirates.
Having Posnanski and Jason Whitlock writing for the small market Kansas City Star was a treat. I’m not a huge Whitlock fan these days, and I think he’s lost a lot of the fire to write sports journalism—but back when he was 100% a Whitlock article could get the whole city debating.
Bloggin' at JoePasDoghouse.com
The story from Ben's prof...
See Here
At the same time the house across the street from the Paterno’s was conveniently for sale — which it no longer is.
Yup
I’ve had that bookmarked since the day it came out. It’s one of those that’s worth re-reading every few months
Follow me on twitter! @kmart93
by Kyle_Martin on Jul 20, 2011 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I did not.
If I had named them, I would have chosen Sweet Corn and Field Corn.
"Choosing Penn State over Stanford, my god!!" - rumple
by ReadingRambler on Jul 20, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Heirloom.
Either yellow or white.
"Choosing Penn State over Stanford, my god!!" - rumple
by ReadingRambler on Jul 20, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
bodacious white, incredible, grown outside of Greencastle along the crick.
My grammer skills need improved.
You know, you joke about the smoke from Centralia and the Agent Orange from Hazleton (don't quite get that one).
But growing up, occasionally we would buy corn grown locally by the farmers with land lining the Susquehanna.
The Susquehanna also serves as recipient of the Butler Mine Tunnel discharge (among many others). I sometimes feel like it’s only a matter of time until I get the bad news.
"Is that a shot at me? 'cause that makes me want to read it all the less."
They closed the beach
On the west branch near the Arch Street bridge in Billtown when I was younger. Something or other in the water. No idea if it ever reopened.
The Hazleton joke is just based on some online rumors from disgruntled NEPA dudes who are pissed off at the prevalence of cancer in the area, part of which is almost undoubtedly due to the high levels of toxic dumping up there. One of those rumors says that Agent Orange canisters were dumped in an abandoned mine shaft. True? I don’t know. In keeping with the news that comes out of that town? Probably.
"Choosing Penn State over Stanford, my god!!" - rumple
by ReadingRambler on Jul 21, 2011 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I could see it being true, although back in the day, abandoned mines were recipients for, well, everything.
Very narrow-minded worldview: out of sight, out of mind. Until an entire town has cancer.
"Is that a shot at me? 'cause that makes me want to read it all the less."
Yeah, really.
It’s not like mines are part of the drainage system or something, man.
"Choosing Penn State over Stanford, my god!!" - rumple
by ReadingRambler on Jul 22, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Stated
Anything worse than 3d in the Pig division should be considered a disappointment.
let's go state
by 424E. on Jul 20, 2011 5:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Nebraska's gunna lose against Washington.
That is all.
"Want a donut go to dunkin donuts, want a linebacker go to Penn State." - Chris Carter
did Craig James kill five female hookers, or five male hookers??
gonna need specifics on this very important development.
"Life is no way to treat an animal"
Would be interesting to see the preseason polls for this year account for the Wilson transfer & Pryor suspension ( I know Phil Steeles didn't)
"We're going to do all we can to get this team right, to go after that national championship" - Devon Still
by ICEICETHATGUY13 on Jul 20, 2011 6:30 PM EDT reply actions
1994 & 2005
Prior to the 94 season I sensed that it would be special. I even got tickets to the MSU game thinking that it might clinch a Rose Bowl bid. That game was more like a coronation.
On the other hand to me 2005 came out of nowhere. After 2000-04 I was just hoping for bowl eligibility in 05.
Agreed.
On the other hand to me 2005 came out of nowhere
I had just graduated and lived through the worst stretch of PSU football. I heard about these freshmen that were supposed to turn it around, but was not ready to believe it (I’m a Pirates fan, it’s in our blood). The Northwestern game, the Ohio State game, the whole season was indescribable. Hell, even the Michigan loss was special, as it was the only time I’ve ever seen my old man cut off in a bar.
@EpicTripod
BSD
SBN - Pittsburgh
Success With Honor
by Jeff Junstrom on Jul 20, 2011 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
You know, when Michigan got the ball back, I couldn't bear to watch it.
I’ve never had that issue before or since, but there it was. I paused it. I think I had a ten minute delay by the time I got back. I fast forwarded, saw the play, cursed everything.
Oh, God, that team was the best team in the country and you tell your wife she has no taste or class and that Bo was an overrated hack and I know Brian Cook married you two, Junny, I just know it it’s a pact with the devil you’ve got there.
UGHAGASDFASDFF RDAMNIT
"Choosing Penn State over Stanford, my god!!" - rumple
by ReadingRambler on Jul 20, 2011 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I watched that game in Austin, TX
With my friend who went to Michigan. My cell phone did not survive that day.
I was in Denver at bar with 200 Penn Staters.
Didn’t say one word to my ladyfriend during the entire drive back from the bar. I still don’t want to talk about it.
by Chris Grovich on Jul 21, 2011 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I was in York at Vito's.
Same, my wife and I drove back to chambersburg in silence.
My grammer skills need improved.
I was at home
my dad turned it off immediately and we just sat there for a while. Then the next Monday I found out that the QB of my high school team had a broken hand from punching the floor after that game.
WE'RE DANCIN!!!
I was at home watching it.
I threw my remote control across the room and broke it.
This is BSD, the crazy stirs itself.
I was there. In the eighth row of the endzone. Watching that happen 50 feet from me.
A terrible, terrible day.
All I want to do is make the whole crowd bounce, y'all
I was that guy, Adam Collyer. Now, I'm that guy, Adam Collyer
@AdamCollyer
Black Shoe Diaries
by Adam Collyer on Jul 22, 2011 7:22 AM EDT up reply actions
My apartment in Pentagon City with wife and a friend
We decided the best way to get over it was an Irish wake, so we went down to Sine, an “Irish” bar in Pentagon Row. Due to our own Penn State myopia, we had forgotten that the favorite football team of 1/4 Irish American Christmas/Easter Catholics was playing USC. While we drowned our sorrows with Irish beer and potato soup we could just make out Reggie Bush pushing Matt Leinhart.
We felt sort of better.
Washingtonian and Penn Stater -- My blog features the triumph of hope over experience that is being a DC sports fan (especially the Nats) as well as the Nittany Lions, life in BeltwayLand and other things I find interesting. @doubleuefwhy
I was a senior in HS watching that game
I hadn’t even been accepted to PSU (but I knew I was going), and I was utterly devastated. I really want to hit something right now just thinking about it. I punched my dorm desk really hard after 2008 Iowa.
by dawsonPSU10 on Jul 21, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
If those are the division names we're going to go with
Which one is Iowa going to be in? #1 in the country in both corn and pork. Not sure if I’m proud of that or not, but it’s all we’ve got in Iowa besides football…
"He lowballed us and said: 'Take it or leave it. If you don't take our offer, you are rolling the dice.' I said: 'Consider them rolled.' " - Jim "Huge Brass Balls" Delaney
My good God, dude!
You’re [supposedly] an Iowa fan! Don’t tell me you forgot wrestling, because I’m already convinced you’ve faked your entire existence if you “forgot” wrestling.
"Choosing Penn State over Stanford, my god!!" - rumple
by ReadingRambler on Jul 20, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Why does everyone think Nebraska is going to win that division?
I mean, really, why? What am I missing here?
Also, 4th, Rogers Poll? Yeah, sure.
"Choosing Penn State over Stanford, my god!!" - rumple
That was a cool article
and I don’t like saying that about things I don’t write.lol
I was NGameday, and I used to blog at VictoryBellRings
Follow me: @Ben_Jones88
Blogging at Black Shoe Diaries
by Ben Jones on Jul 20, 2011 9:41 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Apropos of nothing
other than I just trolled the entire “Craig James allegedly killed five hookers during his time at SMU” article… The Top Five Resources you can build an interwebs manifesto around:
- Casablanca
- Calvin & Hobbes
- Monty Python and the Holy Grail
- Paterno By The Book
- Ghostbusters
by Smee on Jul 20, 2011 10:32 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Okay, so other than Craig James being a
terrible human being, is there a reason for seemingly every sports blog ever getting behind the “Craig James allegedly killed five hookers during his time at SMU” thing? Is that actually a real thing?
No, I can’t work the Googles, to answer your question. /derp
Solidarity for Bruce Feldman, hatred for Craig James
Not to mention that we should generally frown upon the notion that, according to some sources, Craig James allegedly killed five hookers during his time at SMU.
by Chris Grovich on Jul 21, 2011 7:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Right, I saw that,
but I just figured that the hookers thing was put in after everyone started talking about how Craig James allegedly killed five hookers during his time at SMU.
But, of all the things in the world to maybe possibly not have real sources about, Craig James allegedly killing five hookers during his time at SMU is definitely up there on the list of “things I’m a-okay with”.
(amidoingitrite?)
I'm just linking for redundancy.
And to let everyone know about this terribly important allegation.
by Chris Grovich on Jul 21, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
You mean the allegation that Craig James killed five hookers during his time at SMU?
by dawsonPSU10 on Jul 21, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
It'd be irresponsible NOT to speculate.
All I want to do is make the whole crowd bounce, y'all
I was that guy, Adam Collyer. Now, I'm that guy, Adam Collyer
@AdamCollyer
Black Shoe Diaries
by Adam Collyer on Jul 22, 2011 7:23 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
What would be interesting
Is if there were common threads between the teams that were overrated or underrated going into the year. Experience on the OL? Dominating pass rusher? Ethan Kilmer?
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