No. 20 - Penn State Gets The Pre-Snap Read Treatment
Penn State finally appears on Paul Myerberg's Preseason countdown of all 120 FBS teams (seriously...the man is a machine). The other B1G teams to have appeared so far (ranking): Indiana (103), Minnesota (92), Purdue (76), Illinois (57), Michigan State (41), Iowa (38), Northwestern (35), and Michigan (29). That leaves Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin to appear with Penn State in Myerberg's Top 20.
His analyses are in depth and are consistently a good read. If you don't feel like heading over for the full read, here is Paul's conclusion:
SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION
In a nutshell Could a program like Penn State ever really come in under the radar? Maybe back in 2005, when this program was at its nadir, but today? I’d side with no, but I’m extremely surprised with the lack of faith in this team’s ability to return to the Rose Bowl hunt. Perhaps all it took was a slide to seven wins to temper expectations, but consider the following: last year’s team got nothing at quarterback, did not do a good job running the football, couldn’t muster up any pass rush and suffered an almost ridiculous number of injuries. Partner those factors with a wholesale lack of experience and you get 7-6, in short. And you know what? Each of those negatives are fixable; each can be offset with time, practice and snaps, minus the injuries. Offensively, Penn State is going to land improved play under center — it’s up to Bolden, but he has the talent to take the requisite step forward. Can the offensive line be more physical? That’s a mental task, and an incalculable one at that, but the line should be better thanks to last year’s experience. Now, the defense: I think it’s going to be great. If not great then at least very good; great if the pass rush returns to 2009 form, very good if the pass rush improves only slightly. In the big picture, you have to consider Penn State a contender for the Big Ten crown. Getting Wisconsin on the road sets back those Rose Bowl hopes quite a bit, and the three-game stretch to end the year is going to prevent the Nittany Lions from getting back to 10 wins. But in my mind, this is a team with nine-win potential. That resume would include a loss to Alabama and losses in two of three against Nebraska, Ohio State and the Badgers — and means no slip-ups against Iowa, Illinois or Northwestern. The ceiling is high, like B.C.S. high, if everything falls into place. But others teams do have fewer question marks, to be fair, so placing Penn State inside the top 20 and alongside the Buckeyes for second place in the Leaders division is a logical spot.
Dream season A marquee win over Alabama sets the tone for a perfect regular season, complete with additional victories over that deadly trio to end the year.
Nightmare season For the second straight year, it’s 7-6. This time, Penn State can’t blame injuries and inexperience.
10 months ago
Jeff Junstrom
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Comments
Middle-of-the-road commentary, imo
No real epiphanies, but no cheap shots about Joe’s age or stuff like that. Would have liked to see him dig a little deeper into the defense, esp. the LBs and line, given that the standard thinking our secondary is solid. Do we have too many good LBs that will compete for PT and lead to a lack of consistency?
I'd like to have two Armies -- one for display, with lovely guns, tanks, little Soldiers, staffs, distinguished and doddering Generals and dear little regimental officers, who would be deeply concerned over their General's bowel movements or their Colonel's piles; an Army that would be shown for a modest fee on every fairground in the country.
The other would be the REAL ONE, composed entirely of young enthusiasts in camouflage uniforms, who would not be put on display but from whom impossible efforts would be demanded and to whom all sorts of tricks would be taught. That's the Army in which I should like to fight.
Yeah but he does this for like 35 teams..
so I wouldn’t expect a personnel breakdown. but he clearly knows enough to mention guys like Belton who are generating a buzz.
by Artiefufkin10 on Aug 13, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Not just 35, all of them.
He has done this in-depth of an analysis for 100 teams now. If you look at the bottom, he has a running word count; with PSU’s he’s at over 314K words, or 3K words per team reviewed. One hell of an endeavor if you ask me.
But 3K words can only go so far. We could commit 20K words to recapping and previewing PSU in a post, but since Myerberg is limited, I think he does a pretty good job. I don’t know how he does pre- to post-season ranking (he had PSU at 18 pre- and 41 post-season last year). But as far as the “what you need to know” analysis, he’s one of the best.
@EpicTripod
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by Jeff Junstrom on Aug 13, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Guys, wasn't being totally negative
just expressing a desire to see more, more, more about the only CFB team I care about. Given time and interest constraints, I don’t really read much about other teams, but I do soak up as much about the Lions as I can.
Apologies to Mr. Myerberg if my OP was too harsh.
I'd like to have two Armies -- one for display, with lovely guns, tanks, little Soldiers, staffs, distinguished and doddering Generals and dear little regimental officers, who would be deeply concerned over their General's bowel movements or their Colonel's piles; an Army that would be shown for a modest fee on every fairground in the country.
The other would be the REAL ONE, composed entirely of young enthusiasts in camouflage uniforms, who would not be put on display but from whom impossible efforts would be demanded and to whom all sorts of tricks would be taught. That's the Army in which I should like to fight.
by PSU_Lions_84 on Aug 13, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm the opposite.
I try to know as much as time permits about other teams, just so I can be well-rounded.
by misdreavus79 on Aug 13, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't make it a priority, 79,
given other things going on in my life. It’s great you can — hasn’t worked that way for me.
I'd like to have two Armies -- one for display, with lovely guns, tanks, little Soldiers, staffs, distinguished and doddering Generals and dear little regimental officers, who would be deeply concerned over their General's bowel movements or their Colonel's piles; an Army that would be shown for a modest fee on every fairground in the country.
The other would be the REAL ONE, composed entirely of young enthusiasts in camouflage uniforms, who would not be put on display but from whom impossible efforts would be demanded and to whom all sorts of tricks would be taught. That's the Army in which I should like to fight.
by PSU_Lions_84 on Aug 13, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh believe me, "as much as time permits"
means on my 15 minute breaks at work, or when I’m off.
by misdreavus79 on Aug 13, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Amazing how quickly time slips away, isn't it?
except for the interval btwn Spring and Fall CFB camps, of course.
I'd like to have two Armies -- one for display, with lovely guns, tanks, little Soldiers, staffs, distinguished and doddering Generals and dear little regimental officers, who would be deeply concerned over their General's bowel movements or their Colonel's piles; an Army that would be shown for a modest fee on every fairground in the country.
The other would be the REAL ONE, composed entirely of young enthusiasts in camouflage uniforms, who would not be put on display but from whom impossible efforts would be demanded and to whom all sorts of tricks would be taught. That's the Army in which I should like to fight.
by PSU_Lions_84 on Aug 13, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think you were being too harsh, nor do I think your desire to learn as much as you can about PSU is unwarranted.
But like I said, he’s limited. I think he did a pretty spot on job for 3K words.
@EpicTripod
BSD
SBN - Pittsburgh
Success With Honor
by Jeff Junstrom on Aug 13, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough, Junny.
I'd like to have two Armies -- one for display, with lovely guns, tanks, little Soldiers, staffs, distinguished and doddering Generals and dear little regimental officers, who would be deeply concerned over their General's bowel movements or their Colonel's piles; an Army that would be shown for a modest fee on every fairground in the country.
The other would be the REAL ONE, composed entirely of young enthusiasts in camouflage uniforms, who would not be put on display but from whom impossible efforts would be demanded and to whom all sorts of tricks would be taught. That's the Army in which I should like to fight.
by PSU_Lions_84 on Aug 13, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Question..
How do you get the “Follow @” in your signature?
@EstebanDAmur
Scott, things aren't as happy as they used to be down here at the unemployment office. Joblessness is no longer just for Philosophy majors - useful people are starting to feel the pinch.
by Esteban d' Amur on Aug 13, 2011 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Check here
This comment should have what you need, just replace the twitter handle with your own and paste it into your sig.
Thank you..
and misdreavus79
Scott, things aren't as happy as they used to be down here at the unemployment office. Joblessness is no longer just for Philosophy majors - useful people are starting to feel the pinch.
by Esteban d' Amur on Aug 14, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I have to admit
reading this:
…last year’s team got nothing at quarterback, did not do a good job running the football, couldn’t muster up any pass rush and suffered an almost ridiculous number of injuries.
did actually (if temporarily) dent the hollow feeling in the pit of my stomach. Rationally, I understand all of these things he says to be true, but coming of my (or any die-hard Penn Stater’s) mouth, they can’t help but sound like excuses and homerism. To see an objective source arrive at the same conclusions suggests that there’s some legitimacy there, especially to the part about the injury bug.
It was encouraging to have him note most of those problems as "fixable"
which, combined with news out of HV about Fall camp, gives reason for optimism that this season will be much better than last.
I'd like to have two Armies -- one for display, with lovely guns, tanks, little Soldiers, staffs, distinguished and doddering Generals and dear little regimental officers, who would be deeply concerned over their General's bowel movements or their Colonel's piles; an Army that would be shown for a modest fee on every fairground in the country.
The other would be the REAL ONE, composed entirely of young enthusiasts in camouflage uniforms, who would not be put on display but from whom impossible efforts would be demanded and to whom all sorts of tricks would be taught. That's the Army in which I should like to fight.
by PSU_Lions_84 on Aug 13, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Just ask the Pennlive crowd
if you say anything positive about PSU or give a completely legitimate reason for misfortune aside from JOE PATERNO IS OLD AND A BAD COACH, you are a shameless homer sheep
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
I was not familiar with this site
but I am impressed. I like the optimism he holds for us, too.
ACCEPTS THE PAYPAL
Hello, everybody, coach get old, the new coach approaching, click in.
Welcome to http://www.pennlive.com
by newenglandnittanylion on Aug 13, 2011 7:31 PM EDT reply actions
Interesting to see
He cam up with about the same feelings many of us have about the upcoming season : somewhere between Undefeated and 7-6, but not sure which. I can’t make up my mind either.
With firmness in the right, as God gives us to see the right
- A.Lincoln
by SarcasmJam on Aug 13, 2011 7:45 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Agreed.
The ceiling is MNC, but that’s pretty unrealistic. The basement for me is 8-4 regular season, with losses to Alabama, OSU, Nebraska, and Wisky. I think we take two of those and finish at 10-2 and work our way into Cap1/Outback Bowl range.
I like every single position’s talent level over last year, with the possible exception of kicker. Maybe we can be awesome?
@EpicTripod
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by Jeff Junstrom on Aug 13, 2011 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
We certainly can be.
Awesome, that is. Like this article said, all the pieces are in place, with the threshold between good and great resting with the DEs and their ability to get their pass rush back. If they do, that defense could be 2005-style great, and 10 (or more) regular season wins are very much in the cards.
ACCEPTS THE PAYPAL
Hello, everybody, coach get old, the new coach approaching, click in.
Welcome to http://www.pennlive.com
by newenglandnittanylion on Aug 13, 2011 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
DL/OL
I am willing to put faith in the DL. Last year was a deviation from sustained excellence on the defensive line, and faith that it will return to form (or at least be “good” instead of not good) is warranted.
I want to take a similar leap of faith on the O-line, but belief there is not so warranted given the track record. Is it possible the O-line will be better? Certainly. But I’ll only believe it if they start opening a few creases for Redd against the Crimson Tide.
by tuscaloosalion on Aug 14, 2011 7:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Definitely maybe.
It will come down to the consistent goodness of the combination of the O-line and QB. If it’s 05 or 08 level consistently good, the basement is 10-2 and 12-0 is possible. If it’s 06 or 10 level consistently good, the what should be totally stacked skilled guys and defense should still be good enough to go 8-4, but I wouldn’t be hoping for any better than that. Somewhere in between, like 09, and anywhere from 8-4 to 11-1 is possible depending on injuries and luck.
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
Haven't you heard??? We have a Ficken kicker!!!!!
If Sam’s gametime kicks are anything like his recruiting video, he should be contributing immediately. He is my personal pick for super secret special weapon. I am making the prediction right now- Sam Ficken will leave PSU breaking Kevin Kelly’s record to become the new ALLTIME POINTS SCORER.
by PSUinOH on Aug 14, 2011 11:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why can't us?
Formerly known as kmart93
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by Kyle_Martin on Aug 15, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I'm just hoping to have a PSU defense again
That alone should get us 8+ wins. I am stoked to see the LB corps this year. We have some seriously ridiculous talent and depth there.
"Hey Joe, don't worry about the guys we lose. Only make sure the guys you bring in here belong here, and they're coming here for the right reasons." - Rip Engle to Joe Paterno
8 wins
is about what I expect. I watched the replay of win #400 yesterday; it was the running game more than McGloin that powered the offense in the second half.. If he is the starter I see 8 wins tops this season.
I'm with you
I watched that replay yesterday and was thinking the exact same thing. But having said that if Bolden and McGloin both come back with some serious improvement, I think we may find ourselves with another QB controversy this year, but just with a lot better talent. May not be horrible, no?
"A setback is just a set up for a comeback." -Drew Brees
I agree
The worst part of last season wasn’t the meh offense we ran out there each game. It was the sense of dread that if we didn’t score, the other team was going to. I did not like that defense, and I’d love a return to the traditions top 5/top 15 defense I’ve come to expect
Formerly known as kmart93
@kmart93
Black Shoe Diaries
by Kyle_Martin on Aug 15, 2011 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Correction on Sparty
He’s already covered Michigan State. He pegged them at #41 in a decidedly underwhelming preview. Coincidentally, #41 is exactly where he had Penn State ranked last year.
Whoops. Edited.
@EpicTripod
BSD
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Success With Honor
by Jeff Junstrom on Aug 14, 2011 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
MSU #41
He must be taking schedules into account-MSU has a tough one-both the Suckeyes and Badgers out of division.
Not Sure
It’s been a few days since I read it, and I can’t tell if he consistently considers schedules (I mean, Penn State has ’Bama, OSU, Wisky, and Nebraska, not to mention Iowa and Illinois).
If I recall correctly, though, he seemed to feel that Sparty was a little bit, well, lucky last year, as he cited the number of close games they won. He doesn’t think they’ll catch lightning in a bottle twice (he might have used that phrase, actually).
I’m a little skeptical of Sparty, too, but I was frankly surprised to see them as low as 41. I don’t know that I’ve seen any other preview with them outside the top 25. Of course, one of the great things about this is that he’s posting them now, whereas all the print mags had to meet far earlier deadlines, when people don’t have as many out-of-season reports to go on and are still overly swayed by the final rankings of the previous year.
by tuscaloosalion on Aug 14, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Sparty is the Big Ten team from whom nothing should be surprising
I mean, everyone’s back from an 11-2 Big Ten Champ. They play OSU before the tat-5 return. They get Michigan and Wisconsin at home. They avoid Penn State and a mildly talented, if nothing else, Illinois team.
On the other hand, they were really just a luckier Penn State last year in terms of overall goodness and this year’s schedule, especially the beginning, is much tougher. 5 of MSU’s first 8 games are against BCS teams who had winning records last year, 3 on the road. Sputtering out to a 4-4 start and finishing somewhere around 6-6 should surprise no one.
To me, they’re the obvious clear favorite in the Legends division, but I don’t know that I give them any more than a 30% chance of actually winning it.
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
It's the Tat-4 now
As they’re missing their fearless leader
Formerly known as kmart93
@kmart93
Black Shoe Diaries
by Kyle_Martin on Aug 15, 2011 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also it's Sparty
Blowing the season is in their blood. I will always expect them to stumble to 6-7/7-6 records and am surprised if they do better than that.
Formerly known as kmart93
@kmart93
Black Shoe Diaries
by Kyle_Martin on Aug 15, 2011 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hmmm
I agree that, with MSU’s historic week-to-week schizophrenia they’re one of the hardest teams to predict, and that the ceiling/floor for them is as wide as you suggest.
But they don’t return “everyone”. They lost Greg Jones and Eric Gordon at LB. Perhaps more troubling is the loss of three starters on the O-line, which could make life much tougher on Cousins, et al. They also project to be rather young in the secondary.
I don’t see how you could make them the “obvious clear favorite” to win the Bo Division* over Nebraska, though you’re right that catching OSU early is a bonus.
- I refuse to use the “official” names for those divisions. For me, Penn State is in the Joe Division; the other one (with Michigan) is the Bo Division.
I like Corn/Pig
Or South+Wisconsin/North.
@EpicTripod
BSD
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Success With Honor
by Jeff Junstrom on Aug 14, 2011 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Where is Wisconsin/Wisconsin is Here
Formerly known as kmart93
@kmart93
Black Shoe Diaries
by Kyle_Martin on Aug 15, 2011 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
East/West ...
is what I am calling them. Hey in the SEC Eastern Division Vandy is clearly west of both Bama and Auburn.
My alternatate would be Joe/Woody and Bo/Tom-after the 4 greatest coches of Big Ten scholls in the modern era i.e. I can remember back to when Woody was coaching. In fact my wife was at the infamous 10-10 tie in 1973 (as opposed to 1966 involing two other scholls-one of which I have always despised and will continue to do so forever).
Those work
The inanity of the division names has been beat to death, but really … really … almost anything is better than what they came up with.
Hell, let's just go with the GEE and DELANEY divisions for.....
somethin’ different.
"The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me God." The Government is like the Mob, you can check out, but never leave.
by DerryPharmer on Aug 14, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
If the DL plays well,
I think that translates into 10 wins, even if the OL and QB play are only average. Great defenses tend to make plays and win most close games.
Pete massaro’s loss is a bummer.
by rodney20 on Aug 14, 2011 12:04 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I agree...but if not...same as last year.
"The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me God." The Government is like the Mob, you can check out, but never leave.
by DerryPharmer on Aug 14, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Rodney, I agree.
A stout defense can shorten the field, and give an okay offense a better chance to score. I think most of us agree our secondary and LBs will be awesome; as you noted, the DL will be the difference btwn good and great. I am cautiously optimistic about the line, but would like to see a strong three-deep roster to carry us through a pretty tough schedule.
I'd like to have two Armies -- one for display, with lovely guns, tanks, little Soldiers, staffs, distinguished and doddering Generals and dear little regimental officers, who would be deeply concerned over their General's bowel movements or their Colonel's piles; an Army that would be shown for a modest fee on every fairground in the country.
The other would be the REAL ONE, composed entirely of young enthusiasts in camouflage uniforms, who would not be put on display but from whom impossible efforts would be demanded and to whom all sorts of tricks would be taught. That's the Army in which I should like to fight.
The D will depend on.....
a solid DL and major injury free season…..The rest of the LBs and DBacks would then be ok….I really miss the “old days” of stopping the run cold, LBs killing, and some, please some, interceptions….there was a lot of never being able to get 3 downs and out on D last year…..look, I realize what happened last year, but WE just can’t help but not being better this season….I am looking forward to BOTH O and D improvement, despite a pretty tough schedule….3 weeks away and I am getting psyched as they used to say.
"The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me God." The Government is like the Mob, you can check out, but never leave.
by DerryPharmer on Aug 14, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Unfortunately for IN State
we need to destroy them. I remember the sick feeling in my stomach last year when we started so slowly against our OOC sked. It was like watching a train bearing down on my stuck-on-the-tracks car.
We need the Lions to come out fired up and totally dominate the Sycamores. Then, we need Joe to point out the team’s flaws, so they don’t get over-confident leading to the Bama game.
I'd like to have two Armies -- one for display, with lovely guns, tanks, little Soldiers, staffs, distinguished and doddering Generals and dear little regimental officers, who would be deeply concerned over their General's bowel movements or their Colonel's piles; an Army that would be shown for a modest fee on every fairground in the country.
The other would be the REAL ONE, composed entirely of young enthusiasts in camouflage uniforms, who would not be put on display but from whom impossible efforts would be demanded and to whom all sorts of tricks would be taught. That's the Army in which I should like to fight.



























