Why Penn State can beat Alabama
by TheRaj on Sep 7, 2011 1:02 AM EDT
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The Nittany Lions are receiving no love from the betting gods (-10 underdogs and 96% money on Bama's side) or ESPN, but at least the latter is expected. Said an "analyst" on ESPNU tonight, "At least Alabama has a plan and sticks to it-running the ball.Penn State hasn't known what it's plan is for the last three years." While I have felt the pain of the Nittany Lion struggles in recent memory, something makes me feel like this year is different. Maybe because it really is JoePa's last season or maybe its because I'm big on Silas Redd or maybe because lightning will strike and Rob Bolden will actually pan out. Either way, here are 5 reasons why Penn State can beat Nick Saban and Alabama on Saturday.
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Said analyst didn't watch the O in 08-09
I believe Daryll Clark would disagree with him.
Formerly known as kmart93
@kmart93
Black Shoe Diaries
I'll give you five reasons, since the link didn't work
1. We may complain about Matt McGloin around here, but Alabama would probably be happy to trade either of their QBs straight up for him.
2. It’s a non-conference home game. Outside of the dark years, Penn State hasn’t lost a non-conference home game since joining the Big Ten.
3. These two play close games. Penn State has played Alabama 13 times: 8 of those times the final MOV has been 7 points or less, and one other time Penn State lost big and won the MNC anyway. Here’s a tip on learning Paternese: whenever Joe mentions the 82 Alabama game, that’s code for “The better team did not win that game, every bad break possible went against the team that should have won. We play that game 10 times, we’re winning 8 or 9 of them” In the 5 games that haven’t been within 7, PSU is 2-3, but 4 of those games happened in Alabama.
4. A Kent State defense that only returned 5 starters held Trent Richardson to a much worse day than Evan Royster had last year. Alabama’s offensive line might suck something awful.
5. Much as the general sentiment seems to be that Alabama got the lead last year and sat on it (Joe even said this in his press conference. Interesting how nobody takes what he says in press conferences seriously, and they shouldn’t, unless they agree with him, then it’s gospel), but this doesn’t jive with the reality of Alabama’s playcalling or distribution. Penn State was the better team for the last 3 quarters of that game, and this year it’s Penn State with more returning starters, a returning QB, and playing at home.
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
by ckmneon on Sep 7, 2011 8:19 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
If Joe Paterno grows a mustache, we win a national championship.
It’s that simple.
by Jared Slanina on Sep 7, 2011 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Ahem...
Look, I’m pulling like hell for Penn State, but a couple of those are head-scratchers.
#1. No. This isn’t to say that whoever lines up under center for Penn State won’t have a better day on Saturday. Totally possible. I’m quite sure, though, that there’s not a person in Tuscaloosa that would take McGloin for McCarron or Sims.
#4. Double no. The Bama O-line had a poor game. And given Penn STate’s front seven, there’s reason to hope that Bama will find it tough sledding again. However, unless there are some hidden injuries or deep personal turmoil, that O-line doesn’t “suck something awful.” That ain’t just talk based on recruiting stars, but just a clear-headed look at a large sample of performances by the players on that O-line. Very, very good, if not great, at multiple positions.
I’m not saying Penn State can’t win. Both offenses should have tough times moving the ball. Avoid mistakes, get a nice return here or there, force a timely turnover. Can happen.
If anything, I like your #5. It wasn’t just the turnovers that doomed Penn STate, but the timing of them. I’m biased, but between the 20s, it seemed the gap between the two teams last year was not as large as the score indicated. You can’t dismiss what happened in the red zone, of course, but to me that limited success is the basis for any real optimism for Saturday.
by tuscaloosalion on Sep 7, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
With you
I love Ck, but sometimes, like this one, the cherry-picked stats style of storytelling goes pretty tall on the tale part. So, while we’re at it: #2 & #3 won’t mean a goddamn thing on Saturday either.
I really, really like #5, tho. Especially the case made in that link. The ‘Saban took the foot off the gas’ line irks me to no end. And, as far as I’ve seen on the internet, has been completely indefensible.
Look, Nick Saban is not Kirk Ferentz. He’s not in this game to ‘just win baby.’ He’s in it to put his fucking paw prints on every. single. detail. He wants a balanced offense. He says so. And he’ll work his minions til they deliver it. Or don’t, as the case likely will be on Saturday. PSU first defensive pick 6 since forever. Book it. This shit is gonna be straight 1988/1989. Both teams need to find a way to score. I don’t know if we can, but I do know we can make it damn near impossible for them to as well.
I also disagree with the "took the foot off the gas" argument,
You and I were sitting pretty close to each other last year and Alabama didn’t let up on anything. I HATE HATE HATE how arrogant so many Alabama fans are. A guy said to me last week (who didn’t even know me, just knew I was with the Penn State Chapter, “Good luck next week. We’ll let up on the gas just like we did last year.” I wanted to punch him in the face.
"This is BSD, the crazy stirs itself," dwf5095
Follow @Paige2PSU
On Monday, when the final score is 48 - 14 us
You let that douchebag know that we let up because we didn’t want to embarrass a school with such tradition as Alabama.
by misdreavus79 on Sep 7, 2011 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
He was already cheering everytime Utah State scored or did anything good
against Auburn. I’m sure he would have said something about both of my teams getting beat this year.
"This is BSD, the crazy stirs itself," dwf5095
Follow @Paige2PSU
Here are my five reasons
1. Our “D” line is going to be vastly improved over the 2010 product.
2. Our LBs are vastly improved over the 2010 product.
3. Our DBs are veterans who will shut down the ’Bama QBs
4. Our RBs, and especially our FBs are excellent
5. tOSU sucks rotten eggs.
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
The only problem I see with your reasoning is #3, and here's why:
I’m sure we’ll have our secondary 10-25 yards off the line of scrimmage because our coaching staff is terrified of giving up the big play. Our DB’s ARE good enough to play man up and lock up they’re receievers. The question is does the coaching staff have the balls to order up that kind of game plan.
To me, that fear of losing, of giving up the big play, of being so fucking conservative is what has kept us from maybe accomplishing more that what we have the last 6 years.
I wonder if people who complain about our "conservative" defense have ever read Paterno's book.
"I hope we're not looking past Alabama to Temple the next Saturday." - Jack Ham
by ReadingRambler on Sep 7, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
What is a really great book is
“Football’s Eagle and Stack Defenses” by Vanderlinden with input by Paterno. Excellent view into PSU defense. If you haven’t read it, it’s worth it.
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
by RWReese on Sep 7, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Paterno: By The Book
In it, he explains just how much effort he put into the defensive system that got us an undefeated record over two straight years. It was revolutionary. And I still can’t figure out three things: a) Why conservatism is necessarily that bad in this sport, b) Why people really believe Paterno is too conservative for his own good (After all, let us consult the innovations he has made many times for the overall benefit of our program), and….there was something else, but I’ve forgotten. It was really good. Darn.
"I hope we're not looking past Alabama to Temple the next Saturday." - Jack Ham
by ReadingRambler on Sep 7, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Conservatism in this sport is not always bad.
However, sometimes you need to do a George Costanza and do the exact opposite of every instinct you’ve ever had. With ’bama’s inexperienced QB play, I think this is a place where you do do the opposite and get nasty aggressive.
Just my opinion.
Hera are five reasons.
1. This defense is a solid unit all around. The 2011 Indiana State game reminded me of the 2004 game against Akron. It’s too early to say, but if this unit is as good as it looked on opening day, it might be as good as the 2004 team’s defense.
2. Thankfully, that doesn’t mean our offense will also be like the 2004 team. Just the defense. No, the offense is going to need some work, but if we can get the running game going, we won’t need to pass the ball much. The less we hear “down he goes” when we have the ball, the better.
3. The turnover battle. Bama had five turnovers and nearly had a few more (Sims fumbled on a sack but recovered his own fumble). If Penn State can get themselves a short field all day and not turn the ball over, it could be a decisive PSU win.
4. We’ll be having Anthony Fera back out of the dog house. His booming kicks helped set up field position in our favour last year in games we won, and as long as he stays out of the mango rum, that’ll happen again this year, too.
5. It’s a home game. Outside of 2009, we play better at home than we do on the road by far. A game that would be close on the road is often a blowout at home. A close home win might be a loss on the road.
Therefore…
Penn State: 13
Alabama: 10
by Altoona Man on Sep 7, 2011 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I think we win, and here are my reasons:
1. QB play. Yeah, that’s right. I’m a Bolden guy. We have an experienced QB playing at home, and ‘bama has a rookie making his first road start in one of, if not THE, toughest places to play in all of college football. The roles are reversed this year. You don’t think it doesn’t make a difference. Look at QB #14 vs. ND in 2006, and then the result vs. ND the following year when a true freshman in Jimmy Clausen started for Notre Lame in Happy Valley.
2. I think our defense is much, much healthier. If I’m not mistaken, Massaro is the only one out. The rest of our D is back and healthy and ready to atone for last year.
3. If the coaches have the guts to play man with the secondary, we can flood the box and force their rookie QBs to throw. I mean, jeez, if Kent State can pick off 4 passes in Tuscaloosa, what can our DB’s do if they’re allowed to PLAY, instead of just trying to keep from screwing up.
4. It’s a whiteout. Everybody will be amped beyond belief. Even if people have to tailgate and park downtown, the State College police need to turn a blind eye to the tailgating and open container law this week as long as people are acting civilized and like human beings. If any individuals get too boorish, then “may I suggest using your nightstick officer” (that quote was from Eddie Murphy in Trading Places).
5. The last reason we win: WE ARE!!! PENN STATE!!! Like what was posted on this blog last month, we, as fans, need to have confidence, and that confidence will feed the players. We need to let go of the dark years.
by Ab4PSU on Sep 7, 2011 12:57 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
I have a really good feeling about this game
and I do believe our defense is going to make a huge play (or several). I guess the closest comparison would be to before the Minny Ha Ha game in 2005….felt really good about our chances. Not trying to say we’ll blow Bama out…highly doubtful. But I’m willing to be fickle and change this predicted loss to a win.
Just have that feeling…tonight’s gonna be a good ni-…..won’t go there. Twitch.
Haha, I'm listening to that song right now.
by misdreavus79 on Sep 7, 2011 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Too bad
It won’t be night until the end of the game. Maybe Guido will wait until then to play it (if cirucmstances warrant it).
"You have no idea."
I always think of
“Oh What A Night” being played right after the Ohio State game in 2005. I hope we can get a repeat of that on Saturday!
I like sports and I don't care who knows.
I love that song!
Of course, it was played at just about every party I went to at Penn State.
"This is BSD, the crazy stirs itself," dwf5095
Follow @Paige2PSU
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