Just the Stats: Penn State vs Ohio State

Matthew Holst

Penn St. Nittany Lions (5-2, 3-0 Big Ten) at Ohio St. Buckeyes (8-0, 4-0 Big Ten)

5:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 27, 2012 - ESPN
Beaver Stadium (Capacity: 110,753
) / University Park, PA

Penn State Value (Nat'l Rank) Value (Nat'l Rank) Ohio State
Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 149.29 (77)
121.63 (30)
Rushing Defense (ypg) Psulogo_medium
Passing Offense (ypg) 257.14 (45)
271.75 (105)
Passing Defense (ypg) Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Pass Efficiency 133.83 (60)
119.07 (42)
Pass Efficiency Defense Push
Total Offense (ypg) 406.43 (59)
393.38 (63)
Total Defense (ypg) Push
Scoring Offense (ppg) 28.57 (62)
24.25 (50)
Scoring Defense (ppg) Push
Rushing Defense (ypg) 113.00 (21)
249.63 (10)
Rushing Offense (ypg) Push
Passing Defense (ypg) 209.71 (38)
189.00 (T-101)
Passing Offense (ypg) Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Pass Efficiency Defense 116.21 (36)
136.76 (52)
Pass Efficiency Push
Total Defense (ypg) 322.71 (22)
438.63 (40)
Total Offense (ypg) Push
Scoring Defense (ppg) 15.71 (13)
39.00 (21)
Scoring Offense (ppg) Push
Net Punting Yds 30.19 (120)
9.18 (T-54)
Punt Return Yds Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Punt Return Yds 5.59 (91)
36.49 (71)
Net Punting Yds Push
Kickoff Return Yds 18.53 (100)
20.70 (51)
Kickoff Return Defense Psulogo_medium
Kickoff Return Defense 21.14 (62)
10.90 (68)
Kickoff Return Yds Push
Turnover Margin 1.14 (14)
0.13 (52)
Turnover Margin Psulogo_medium
Penalty Yds/Game 44.86 (35)
65.13 (92)
Penalty Yds/Game Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Sacks 2.57/gm (31)
1.88 (65)
Sacks Allowed Push
Sacks Allowed 1.14/gm (T-24)
2.00 (T-53)
Sacks Psulogo_medium
Redzone Offense (%) 73% (94)
72% (23)
Redzone Defense (%) Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Redzone Defense (%) 60% (6)
88% (23)
Redzone Offense (%) Push
Redzone TD % 60%
48%
Redzone TD % Defense Psulogo_medium
Redzone TD % Defense 50%
79%
Redzone TD % Push
3rd Down Conv. % 45.69 (29)
35.88 (44)
3rd Down Defense % Push
3rd Down Defense % 37.25 (58)
43.93 (41)
3rd Down Conv. % Push
1st Downs Per Game 23.43 (32)
19.00 (45)
1st Downs Allowed PG Push
1st Downs Allowed PG 17.14 (20)
21.13 (59)
1st Downs Per Game Psulogo_medium

Difference <25 in National Rank = Push

Difference >25 in National Rank = Psulogo_medium

Difference >50 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference >75 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference >100 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.

Quick thoughts: So we have a slight lead on OSU in the logo department. But as it seems I write each week, the numbers are a bit skewed. Ohio State has the benefit of two quarterbacks that can scramble and do it well. That could kill Penn State on third down, particularly if the defense has its back turned playing man coverage. However, Penn State is still being dragged down by the first two games, in that the TD/Redzone percentage is much lower than it has been since BOB realized going for it on 4th down ain't too shabby.

Strictly speaking about the offense-defense matchups, this one actually favors Penn State's offense. Ohio State has been uncharacteristically average on defense this season. Even though they've played some "air raid" style offenses of late, their pass defense numbers still should be better than that. Matt McGloin has been on fire, and should be licking his chops at the prospect of going up against a mediocre pass defense like the Buckeyes'. On the flip side, Penn State's run defense was aided by the anemic Iowa ground game, but still has improved greatly over the last few weeks. Shutting down the OSU run game, while forcing either Braxton Miller or Kenny Guiton to pass his way to victory seems like the only guarantee to keep the Buckeyes in check.

More analysis as the week goes on, but for now, the stats do favor the home team in this one.

What say you?


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