Just the Stats: Penn State vs Wisconsin

Penn St. Nittany Lions (7-4, 5-2 Big Ten) vs Wisconsin Badgers (7-4, 4-3 Big Ten)

3:30 p.m. ET, Nov. 24, 2012 - ESPN
Beaver Stadium
/ University Park, PA

Penn State Value (Nat'l Rank) Value (Nat'l Rank) Wisconsin
Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 142.18 (83) 106.64 (9) Rushing Defense (ypg) UWlogo_mediumUWlogo_medium
Passing Offense (ypg) 280.27 (34) 196.27 (25) Passing Defense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency 137.94 (49) 115.44 (25) Pass Efficiency Defense Push
Total Offense (ypg) 442.45 (48) 302.91 (11) Total Defense (ypg) UWlogo_medium
Scoring Offense (ppg) 29.55 (56) 17.55 (14) Scoring Defense (ppg) UWlogo_medium
Rushing Defense (ypg) 128.76 (23) 217.64 (17) Rushing Offense (ypg) Push
Passing Defense (ypg) 228.09 (52) 165.64 (110) Passing Offense (ypg) Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Pass Efficiency Defense 115.49 (26) 134.48 (61) Pass Efficiency Psulogo_medium
Total Defense (ypg) 353.82 (30) 383.27 (83) Total Offense (ypg) Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Scoring Defense (ppg) 18.91 (22) 28.09 (67) Scoring Offense (ppg) Psulogo_medium
Net Punting Yds 33.80 (110) 9.45 (52) Punt Return Yds UWlogo_mediumUWlogo_medium
Punt Return Yds 6.63 (87) 36.44 (68) Net Punting Yds Push
Kickoff Return Yds 18.22 (110) 19.51 (28) Kickoff Return Defense UWlogo_mediumUWlogo_mediumUWlogo_medium
Kickoff Return Defense 21.86 (72) 20.41 (77) Kickoff Return Yds Push
Turnover Margin 0.73/gm* (21) 0.18/gm (48) Turnover Margin Psulogo_medium
Penalty Yds/Game 50.82/gm^ (58) 33.64/gm (9) Penalty Yds/Game UWlogo_medium
Sacks 2.82/gm (13) 2.18/gm (80) Sacks Allowed Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Sacks Allowed 1.73/gm (53) 2.09/gm (T-53) Sacks Push
Redzone Offense (%) 77%† (T-87) 91% (T-113) Redzone Defense (%) Psulogo_medium
Redzone Defense (%) 66% (10) 81% (T-53) Redzone Offense (%) Psulogo_medium
3rd Down Conv. % 42.29 (50) 30.91 (16) 3rd Down Defense % UWlogo_medium
3rd Down Defense % 37.71 (52) 33.77 (103) 3rd Down Conv. % Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
1st Downs Per Game 22.64 (38) 15.82/gm (T-7) 1st Downs Allowed PG UWlogo_medium
1st Downs Allowed PG 18.55 (27) 19.09/gm (T-96) 1st Downs Per Game Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference <25 in National Rank = Push

Difference >25 in National Rank = Psulogo_medium

Difference >50 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference >75 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference >100 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.

Quick thoughts: Penn State is actually plus-3 in the logo department. That's a bit surprising, but it shouldn't be. Wisconsin's offense has been Montee-Ball-or-bust** this season, especially with the implosion of Danny O'Brien earlier in the year. Curt Phillips has been okay, but (can't believe I'm saying this) is definitely no Matt McGloin. The huge edge in this game might not show up in the data above, however, as Wisconsin doesn't run a zone-read or spread style offense, where the quarterback could pull the ball and run. Ohio, Ohio State and Nebraska all leaned heavily on the RB/QB runs, and it worked. But this week, with Ball running Iso, Penn State could force Wisconsin into throwing the ball to win. If that's the case, all Penn State has to do is keep its own offense on the field and avoid going 3-and-out more than once or twice the entire game.

**So, basically PSU's defensive strategy should be "Ball-busting" on Saturday, amirite?

*This number is simply the "on the books" turnover margin average, and does not reflect the non-fumble against Nebraska.

^If games were called against Penn State using the same standards as the rest of college football, this average would be greatly reduced. Expect this average to only get worse following the Wisconsin game.

†This scoring average does not reflect the Penn State touchdown the officiating crew refused to correctly call at Nebraska.

What say you?


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