(7-4, 5-2 Big Ten) vs (7-4, 4-3 Big Ten)
3:30 p.m. ET, Nov. 24, 2012 - ESPN
Beaver Stadium / University Park, PA
|Penn State||Value (Nat'l Rank)||Value (Nat'l Rank)||Wisconsin ||Advantage|
|Rushing Offense (ypg)||142.18 (83)||106.64 (9)||Rushing Defense (ypg)|
|Passing Offense (ypg)||280.27 (34)||196.27 (25)||Passing Defense (ypg)||Push|
|Pass Efficiency||137.94 (49)||115.44 (25)||Pass Efficiency Defense||Push|
|Total Offense (ypg)||442.45 (48)||302.91 (11)||Total Defense (ypg)|
|Scoring Offense (ppg)||29.55 (56)||17.55 (14)||Scoring Defense (ppg)|
|Rushing Defense (ypg)||128.76 (23)||217.64 (17)||Rushing Offense (ypg)||Push|
|Passing Defense (ypg)||228.09 (52)||165.64 (110)||Passing Offense (ypg)|
|Pass Efficiency Defense||115.49 (26)||134.48 (61)||Pass Efficiency|
|Total Defense (ypg)||353.82 (30)||383.27 (83)||Total Offense (ypg)|
|Scoring Defense (ppg)||18.91 (22)||28.09 (67)||Scoring Offense (ppg)|
|Net Punting Yds||33.80 (110)||9.45 (52)||Punt Return Yds|
|Punt Return Yds||6.63 (87)||36.44 (68)||Net Punting Yds||Push|
|Kickoff Return Yds||18.22 (110)||19.51 (28)||Kickoff Return Defense|
|Kickoff Return Defense||21.86 (72)||20.41 (77)||Kickoff Return Yds||Push|
|Turnover Margin||0.73/gm* (21)||0.18/gm (48)||Turnover Margin|
|Penalty Yds/Game||50.82/gm^ (58)||33.64/gm (9)||Penalty Yds/Game|
|Sacks||2.82/gm (13)||2.18/gm (80)||Sacks Allowed|
|Sacks Allowed||1.73/gm (53)||2.09/gm (T-53)||Sacks||Push|
|Redzone Offense (%)||77%† (T-87)||91% (T-113)||Redzone Defense (%)|
|Redzone Defense (%)||66% (10)||81% (T-53)||Redzone Offense (%)|
|3rd Down Conv. %||42.29 (50)||30.91 (16)||3rd Down Defense %|
|3rd Down Defense %||37.71 (52)||33.77 (103)||3rd Down Conv. %|
|1st Downs Per Game||22.64 (38)||15.82/gm (T-7)||1st Downs Allowed PG|
|1st Downs Allowed PG||18.55 (27)||19.09/gm (T-96)||1st Downs Per Game|
Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts: Penn State is actually plus-3 in the logo department. That's a bit surprising, but it shouldn't be. Wisconsin's offense has been Montee-Ball-or-bust** this season, especially with the implosion of Danny O'Brien earlier in the year. Curt Phillips has been okay, but (can't believe I'm saying this) is definitely no Matt McGloin. The huge edge in this game might not show up in the data above, however, as Wisconsin doesn't run a zone-read or spread style offense, where the quarterback could pull the ball and run. Ohio, Ohio State and Nebraska all leaned heavily on the RB/QB runs, and it worked. But this week, with Ball running Iso, Penn State could force Wisconsin into throwing the ball to win. If that's the case, all Penn State has to do is keep its own offense on the field and avoid going 3-and-out more than once or twice the entire game.
**So, basically PSU's defensive strategy should be "Ball-busting" on Saturday, amirite?
*This number is simply the "on the books" turnover margin average, and does not reflect the non-fumble against Nebraska.
^If games were called against Penn State using the same standards as the rest of college football, this average would be greatly reduced. Expect this average to only get worse following the Wisconsin game.
†This scoring average does not reflect the Penn State touchdown the officiating crew refused to correctly call at Nebraska.
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