Just the Stats: Penn State at Illinois

Penn St. Nittany Lions (2-2, 0-0 Big Ten) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2, 0-0 Big Ten)

12:00 p.m. ET, Sept. 29, 2012 - ESPN2
Memorial Stadium (Capacity: 60,670
) / Champaign, IL

Penn State Value (Nat'l Rank) Value (Nat'l Rank) Illinois
Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 124.0 (94)
105.25 (22)
Rushing Defense (ypg) ILLlogo_mediumILLlogo_medium
Passing Offense (ypg) 254.5 (45)
244.0 (63)
Passing Defense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency 132.54 (62)
143.15 (100)
Pass Efficiency Defense Psulogo_medium
Total Offense (ypg) 378.5 (80)
329.25 (35)
Total Defense (ypg) ILLlogo_medium
Scoring Offense (ppg) 22.0 (97)
26.0 (73)
Scoring Defense (ppg) Push
Rushing Defense (ypg) 143.75 (56)
144.75 (84)
Rushing Offense (ypg) Psulogo_medium
Passing Defense (ypg) 211.75 (49)
201.0 (92)
Passing Offense (ypg) Psulogo_medium
Pass Efficiency Defense 129.89 (69)
139.45 (51)
Pass Efficiency Push
Total Defense (ypg) 355.5 (53)
345.75 (100)
Total Offense (ypg) ILLlogo_medium
Scoring Defense (ppg) 15.25 (24)
26.5 (76)
Scoring Offense (ppg) Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Net Punting Yds 30.94 (116)
2.5 (T-105)
Punt Return Yds Push
Punt Return Yds 5.44 (92)
41.05 (17)
Net Punting Yds ILLlogo_mediumILLlogo_mediumILLlogo_medium
Kickoff Return Yds 16.25 (109)
21.0 (65) Kickoff Return Defense ILLlogo_medium
Kickoff Return Defense 19.27 (44)
18.73 (89) Kickoff Return Yds Psulogo_medium
Turnover Margin +1.0/gm (T-24)
-0.25/gm (T-74) Turnover Margin Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Penalty Yds/Game 48.75 (49)
41.5 (35) Penalty Yds/Game Push
Sacks 2.5/gm (T-35)
3.25/gm (110) Sacks Allowed Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Sacks Allowed 0.75/gm (15)
1.5/gm (T-78) Sacks Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Redzone Offense (%) 64% (T-105)
79% (T-50) Redzone Defense (%) ILLlogo_mediumILLlogo_medium
Redzone Defense (%) 80% (T-54)
79% (T-72) Redzone Offense (%) Push
Redzone TD % 50%
64% Redzone TD % Defense ILLlogo_medium
Redzone TD % Defense 60%
71% Redzone TD % ILLlogo_medium
3rd Down Conv. % 46.77 (31)
26.53 (13) 3rd Down Defense % Push
3rd Down Defense % 46.03 (98)
39.34 (76) 3rd Down Conv. % Push
1st Downs Per Game 20.75 (T-66)
15.75 (18) 1st Downs Allowed PG ILLlogo_medium
1st Downs Allowed PG 18.5 (T-43)
17.75 (T-101) 1st Downs Per Game Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference <25 in National Rank = Push

Difference >25 in National Rank = Psulogo_medium

Difference >50 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference >75 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference >100 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.

Quick thoughts: The numbers here would lead you to believe these are two pretty similar teams... but that couldn't be farther from the truth. Penn State is on a strong upswing after two convincing wins. Illinois is reeling after two embarrassing blowout losses. Huge red flags to watch for on Illinois' side would be the sacks, where Penn State has a five-chipmunk-head lead over the Illini, and turnovers. Since the opener against Ohio, Penn State is sporting an 8-to-1 turnover ratio. It would actually be 8-0 if you discount McGloin's one interception that was tipped by his own receiver into the Temple defender's arms. The final note here is that Illinois has struggled mightily the last two weeks defending pass-heavy, "fast" offenses. My "fast" I mean exactly the offense Penn State has started to run with Bill O'Brien at the controls. Against LaTech last week, the Illini defense was completely lost, with Bulldogs receivers frequently running free through the defensive backfield. I don't want to get ahead of myself just yet, because this game could be very tricky. But from what we can all see here, Penn State could have a fun time in Champaign. Could...

What say you?


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