FanPost

Big Boy Conference Season

Looking ahead to the Conference Season when either all the OPTIMISTS will be CROWING .................I TOLD YOU SO, or the naysayers will be saying ....................SOS!!!!! Today, Steve Jones claims on his afternoon radio show that its ABSOLUTELY possible for the Mild Lions to WIN TEN LEAGUE Games. I beg to differ for NUMEROUS reasons, some of which are: 1) that's an 8 game improvement over last year while: - adding 1 VERY KEY player in Tim Frazier - losing 1 very good scorer in Marshall 15.3 ppg - adding Donavon Jack 7.3 ppg (expected to drop in League) versus losing Borovnjack 7.4 ppg - Adding BENCH players Johnson (from Pitt) Roberts (from M-O) On Paper, this is definitely a stronger group with a stud PG; unfortunately; the FRONT COURT is the HUGE defensive weakness (more on that later) offsetting the increased fire power. Borovnack was KEY to the PSU wins versus Michigan (9/5) & Nwn (15/10)for his POST defense. Jack better toughen up some to provide that presence. BUT, looking further, the real truth is PSU SHOT the TRIPLE well in BOTH wins: 10-20 versus Michigan & 7-17 (41%) versus Kitties. Perhaps Johnson can add to that? Can Roberts ? - when he wasn't given much of a chance versus the Tigers and last I looked there is 1 FREAKING ball and hitting 3's from the bench (in your mind) doesnt add to the scoreboard. AND HENCE........................ 2) PSUs problem is 1 BALL dominate by Frazier and Newbill and not enough touches by post players (with CLOSE IN SHOTS, ie, VERY HIGH PERCENTAGE SHOTS So it would seem that the old sayin that live by the three and die by the 3 fits the Lions to a TTTTTTTTTTTT. Still waiting on someone finding a game PSU won versus decent opponent making only 4 trifectas (they were 4-14 versus Princeton) 3) Someone mentioned that Ken Pomeroy has PSU even or favored in SIX Big BOY games. Knowing a little about probability, that means PSU will win at BEST (very conservatively sayin) 5 of those games while capturing nearly every 50-50 ball and getting plenty of home cookin. That requires PSU winning 5 of 12 league games as a DAWG, many a FAT dawg. They should be a pimple or 2 favorite at Kitties and the other 8 roadies anywhere from 3-18 point underdogs which leads to.................. 4) road WOES in League. The PSU 12-6 Big Ten team was ONLY 3-9 on the road. No doubt in my mind they were a fair ( A LOT) better than Wisconsin and Minny that year, but lost close games to both. Right now I give them chances (fair, 20-35%) chances @ only Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois. Slim to none at Michigan St, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, IU. Don't think they can win at Minny on the raised floor. MAYBE, just maybe (at best) 3 road wins. 5) 1 helping of Kitties and THAT is no guarantee after Saturdays meltdown. 6) Front court depth and starters. Travis is ok and plays his ass off, but Taylor's game can be defined by his first shot usually. If it doesn't go in, more than likely AWOL. He reluctantly goes into the paint and DEMANDS the ball even against smaller foes. Jack cant finish contested and is only an outside threat. WILL get muscled in league. THERE simply isn't a Gaudio, Meech, Booth, Cline-Heard, Sekunda, Degitz, Brickowski, Stephens type player WHICH LEADS to some of PSUs more successful teams. 7) DEFENSE - OMG - look at the DEFENSE 1. OHIO STATE 10 546 54.6 2. ILLINOIS 11 664 60.4 3. WISCONSIN 12 745 62.1 4. MICHIGAN 10 631 63.1 5. NORTHWESTERN 10 649 64.9 6. MINNESOTA 11 723 65.7 7. IOWA 12 791 65.9 8. NEBRASKA 10 663 66.3 9. INDIANA 11 736 66.9 10. MICHIGAN STATE 9 610 67.8 11. PURDUE 11 790 71.8 12. PENN STATE 12 870 72.5 ANd this team is gunna win 10 league games? PLEEEEEEESE Scoring Margin 1. IOWA 12 88.9 65.9 +23.0 2. OHIO STATE 10 76.2 54.6 +21.6 3. MICHIGAN 10 79.3 63.1 +16.2 4. INDIANA 11 81.7 66.9 +14.8 5. MICHIGAN STATE 9 81.4 67.8 +13.7 6. WISCONSIN 12 74.7 62.1 +12.6 7. MINNESOTA 11 77.2 65.7 +11.5 8. ILLINOIS 11 71.5 60.4 +11.2 9. PENN STATE 12 80.3 72.5 +7.8 10. PURDUE 11 78.8 71.8 +7.0 11. NEBRASKA 10 73.0 66.3 +6.7 12. NORTHWESTERN 10 66.7 64.9 +1.8 3 point defense 1. OHIO STATE 10 39 168 .232 2. IOWA 12 78 291 .268 3. INDIANA 11 62 220 .282 4. MINNESOTA 11 62 210 .295 5. NORTHWESTERN 10 47 150 .313 6. NEBRASKA 10 55 175 .314 7. WISCONSIN 12 54 171 .316 8. MICHIGAN STATE 9 64 201 .318 9. ILLINOIS 11 63 196 .321 10. MICHIGAN 10 54 165 .327 11. PENN STATE 12 81 242 .335 12. PURDUE 11 68 196 .347 Rebounding margin 1. INDIANA 11 518 47.1 356 32.4 +14.7 2. IOWA 12 555 46.2 430 35.8 +10.4 3. ILLINOIS 11 411 37.4 354 32.2 +5.2 4. MICHIGAN 10 365 36.5 325 32.5 +4.0 MICHIGAN STATE 9 357 39.7 321 35.7 +4.0 6. MINNESOTA 11 410 37.3 367 33.4 +3.9 7. WISCONSIN 12 411 34.2 365 30.4 +3.8 8. PENN STATE 12 452 37.7 415 34.6 +3.1 9. OHIO STATE 10 362 36.2 341 34.1 +2.1 10. PURDUE 11 427 38.8 414 37.6 +1.2 11. NORTHWESTERN 10 354 35.4 347 34.7 +0.7 12. NEBRASKA 10 345 34.5 356 35.6 -1.1 On the plus side, PSU is : 2nd in FT % 3rd in FG % 5th in 3 pt FG% 5th in OFF R % 4th in Blocked Shots (yeah a STUNNER) Another defensive shortcoming: STEALS 1. MINNESOTA 11 95 8.6 2. NEBRASKA 10 83 8.3 3. MICHIGAN STATE 9 69 7.7 4. OHIO STATE 10 75 7.5 5. PURDUE 11 78 7.1 6. IOWA 12 85 7.1 7. INDIANA 11 70 6.4 8. MICHIGAN 10 61 6.1 9. WISCONSIN 12 60 5.0 10. ILLINOIS 11 54 4.9 11. PENN STATE 12 53 4.4 12. NORTHWESTERN 10 39 3.9 10th in turnover margin @ +0.8 per game 8) THE EYE BALL TEST - this team (baring major injury) has a ceiling of 8 (VERY VERY VERY conservative) league wins with a LOW of 5, IMO. I would pick 7 but past results (last 15 years) makes for a smaller number. SO, I AM sticking with the same number as day 1 when I SAW the league SCHEDULE, SIX for 6-12 added to (most likely) 8-4 and possibly 1-1 BTT for a final record of 14-17 or 15-17. I will be very surprised if they have a WINNING record in year 3 like Ed DeChellis' team had. Of course, all these projections predict that Chambers worst coaching effort or 2013 wont be repeated in 2014. Maybe a little of that intensity he shows should have ERUPTED at a TIMEOUT @ 5:44 T.J. Bray made Layup. 47-60 instead of waiting for another BOMB to drop @5:16 Ben Hazel made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by T.J. Bray. 50-60 Past games had shown this squad couldn't be trusted with late game leads & now we have evidence the HC cant be either~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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