NCAA Wrestling Conference Allocations: Projections

Andrew Carpenean-US PRESSWIRE

With the rules out of the way, let's look at how Penn State and Big Tens are shaping up for allocations.

In Part One, with the help of RoarLions, we explained how the NCAA determines which conferences receive auto bid invitations. If you haven't read that background info and are unfamiliar with the process, please give it a look.

Below, we're going to apply those rules to estimate where each of our Penn State wrestlers stand, and how the Big Ten might make out with receiving automatic qualifying bids to Nationals. Prepare yourself for a ton of tables, names, and numbers. And, if you're really crazy, we've shared all of our supporting data in one giant spreadsheet containing 397 wrestlers. Give it a go at your own peril, as you may go blind. Oh by the way - some of the data is a bit old, now. Both the Coaches Poll and RPI were released BEFORE last weekend's wrestling, which included National Duals, and Penn State vs. Oklahoma State, among many others. But - you can't beat the price.

In the tables below, you'll see "Safe", "Bubble", "Projected". Even though a weight class might have 32 wrestlers with a Coaches Ranking and an RPI, that doesn't mean they are automatically Silver Status, and have earned a bid. Only the Top 29 earn a bid (with each Conference tourney having at least 1 bid). So, the actual final criteria for earning a bid "floats", depending upon the goings on within the math. "Safe" is our way of saying that even with the floating criteria, these bids are making the cut. "Bubble" is the opposite. It includes wrestlers close to the top 29, who may earn a bid for his conference or not. "Projected" is our best guess of who gets what.

Now - let's get to it.

125 LBS

Safe Bubble Projected
ACC 2 2 4
Big 12 2 1 2
Big Ten 7 0 7
EIWA 5 1 5
EWL 2 0 2
MAC 3 2 5
PAC12 1 0 1
SoCon 1 0 1
West 2 0 2
TOTAL 25 6 29

Coaches Rank RPI Rank Name School Wins Losses Win% Safe Bubble Projected
2 2 Nico Megaludis Penn State 21 2 91.3% 1 0 1
3 4 Jesse Delgado Illinois 20 2 90.9% 1 0 1
5 NR Thomas Gilman Iowa 13 3 81.3% 1 0 1
9 NR Bradley Taylor Wisconsin 13 2 86.7% 1 0 1
11 25 Tim Lambert Nebraska 15 8 65.2% 1 0 1
18 18 Conor Youtsey Michigan 15 9 62.5% 1 0 1
22 26 Nick Roberts Ohio State 22 10 68.8% 1 0 1
33 NR Samuel Brancale Minnesota 10 7 58.8% 0 0 0
NR 27 Camden Eppert Purdue 10 11 47.6% 0 0 0
NR 33 Garrison White Northwestern 4 12 25.0% 0 0 0

Our Guy: Nico is, of course, in outstanding shape. He's #2 in the Coaches' Poll, holds the #2 RPI, and his 21-2 record against D1 opponents yields a .913 Win%. That's 3 for 3, "Gold" standard, which brings an auto bid to the Big Ten Championships, where Nico more than likely will get the #1 seed.

Rest Of Big Ten: Our projection of 7 total bids is likely to hold up. Ohio State's Nicky Roberts is probably the last bid into the Big Ten pool, and he is (or was) just one or two more wins shy of .700 and 'Gold' status. Minnesota's Sam Brancale, despite his #33 Coaches Rank, is not likely to creep into the NCAA's top 29 ordering.

133 LBS

Safe Bubble Projected
ACC 2 0 2
Big 12 3 0 3
Big Ten 7 1 7
EIWA 4 0 4
EWL 2 3 3
MAC 4 1 5
PAC12 2 1 3
SoCon 1 0 1
West 1 0 1
TOTAL 26 6 29

Coaches Rank RPI Rank Name School Wins Losses Win% Safe Bubble Projected
3 4 Tony Ramos Iowa 16 2 88.9% 1 0 1
5 6 Tyler Graff Wisconsin 21 3 87.5% 1 0 1
8 10 David Thorn Minnesota 15 4 78.9% 1 0 1
9 8 Johnni DiJulius Ohio State 17 3 85.0% 1 0 1
9 NR Cashe Quiroga Purdue 10 5 66.7% 0 0 0
13 NR Zane Richards Illinois 11 3 78.6% 1 0 1
16 12 James Gulibon Penn State 12 11 52.2% 1 0 1
17 18 Rosario Bruno Michigan 16 12 57.1% 1 0 1
33 31 Dom Malone Northwestern 9 12 42.9% 0 1 0

Our Guy: If you set aside the recruiting hype and the expectations that come with it, Jimmy's had a really good first year in the lineup. He's ranked 16 in Coaches, with the #12 RPI. The .522 Win% could be better - and it will be in future years - but his season brings a bid to the party.

Rest of Big Ten: I think we're looking at 7 bids. Dom Malone made both the Coaches Poll and the RPI - usually that's "Silver" standard, and good enough for a bid. Probably not this year, though. 32 wrestlers have similar or better credentials, and we're thinking Dom falls on the 30 - 32 side, instead of the 26 - 29 side of the edge.

141 LBS

Safe Bubble Projected
ACC 4 0 4
Big 12 3 0 3
Big Ten 6 3 7
EIWA 4 3 5
EWL 2 0 2
MAC 4 2 5
PAC12 1 0 1
SoCon 1 0 1
West 1 0 1
TOTAL 26 8 29

Coaches Rank RPI Rank Name School Wins Losses Win% Safe Bubble Projected
2 1 Zain Retherford Penn State 25 0 100.0% 1 0 1
3 NR Logan Stieber Ohio State 15 1 93.8% 1 0 1
5 5 Chris Dardanes Minnesota 16 5 76.2% 1 0 1
10 2 Josh Dziewa Iowa 15 6 71.4% 1 0 1
14 NR Steven Rodrigues Illinois 7 3 70.0% 1 0 1
21 21 Danny Sabatello Purdue 17 8 68.0% 1 0 1
23 NR Steve Dutton Michigan 6 2 75.0% 0 1 1
30 32 Pasquale Greco Northwestern 11 12 47.8% 0 1 0
32 28 Jesse Thielke Wisconsin 12 11 52.2% 0 1 0

Our Guy: what else can you say about Zpain? The true frosh is undefeated, with wins during the season over top conference mates Stieber, Dardanes, Dziewa, and Sabatello. Crazy impressive.

Rest of Big Ten: we think there are three guys on the bubble here, Dutton, Greco, and Thielke. We have Dutton earning the auto bid, while Greco and Thielke do not, leaving the Big Ten with 7 bids here.

149 LBS

Safe Bubble Projected
ACC 4 1 5
Big 12 2 1 2
Big Ten 6 0 6
EIWA 3 1 4
EWL 3 1 4
MAC 3 1 4
PAC12 1 0 1
SoCon 1 2 2
West 1 0 1
TOTAL 24 7 29

Coaches Rank RPI Rank Name School Wins Losses Win% Safe Bubble Projected
3 2 Nick Dardanes Minnesota 19 2 90.5% 1 0 1
4 9 Jake Sueflohn Nebraska 25 3 89.3% 1 0 1
5 11 Jason Tsirtsis Northwestern 20 3 87.0% 1 0 1
7 5 Eric Grajales Michigan 16 8 66.7% 1 0 1
8 10 Brody Grothus Iowa 14 7 66.7% 1 0 1
16 NR Zachary Beitz Penn State 7 7 50.0% 0 0 0
20 15 Ian Paddock Ohio State 18 10 64.3% 1 0 1
28 NR Caleb Ervin Illinois 5 5 50.0% 0 0 0
NR 26 Brandon Nelsen Purdue 12 12 50.0% 0 0 0
NR 29 Eric Roach Indiana 14 12 53.8% 0 0 0

Our Guy: First, do we know who our guys will be? Andrew Alton, Zack Beitz, and Jim English have all taken turns. The most recent rumors have Jim taking this spot. But whether it's Jim or Zack or even Andrew, they're all going to be in the same situation: none is likely to earn a bid for the conference tournament, and none are likely to get picked from an at large pool. So, if we want a representative at Nationals, our guy here needs to place Top 6 at Big Tens.

Rest Of Big Tens: We're loaded, and top heavy this year. Dardanes, Sueflohn, Tsirtsis, Grajales, and Grothus are all safe bets for auto bids, and more than likely, to place. That's 5. The only other auto bid we see here is from Ohio State's Paddock, for a total of 6. Meanwhile, we'll be pulling for Jim or Zack to break into that upper echelon. And oh by the way - Caleb Ervin and Brandon Nelsen are both past NCAA qualifiers, who were ranked at one point or another this season. That's 9 guys who will be fighting for 6 spots. Get ready for mayhem.

157 LBS

Safe Bubble Projected
ACC 4 0 4
Big 12 2 0 2
Big Ten 8 0 8
EIWA 3 2 5
EWL 2 0 2
MAC 4 2 4
PAC12 1 1 2
SoCon 1 1 1
West 1 2 1
TOTAL 26 8 29

Coaches Rank RPI Rank Name School Wins Losses Win% Safe Bubble Projected
1 1 James Green Nebraska 24 0 100.0% 1 0 1
2 2 Derek St. John Iowa 17 2 89.5% 1 0 1
5 NR Dylan Ness Minnesota 12 4 75.0% 1 0 1
7 12 Isaac Jordan Wisconsin 18 4 81.8% 1 0 1
7 14 Taylor Walsh Indiana 25 3 89.3% 1 0 1
10 NR Dylan Alton Penn State 15 2 88.2% 1 0 1
13 13 Zach Brunson Illinois 14 6 70.0% 1 0 1
14 5 Brian Murphy Michigan 14 5 73.7% 1 0 1

Our Guy: For all the complaining I've seen, I find it funny that Dylan's 15-2 coming back from shoulder surgery, ranked 10th in the nation. Kinda crazy. Dylan will be bringing a bid to Big Tens.

Rest of Big Tens: this weight is so deep it's stupid. 6 of the top 10 are Big Ten guys. And yes, the data above is a bit old. Consensus #1 James Green just lost for the first time all season to Wisconsin's Ike Jordan, in OT. This weight will be an absolute meat grinder from round 2 through the finals. But that's also why the Top 8 are headed to Nationals.

165 LBS

Safe Bubble Projected
ACC 1 1 2
Big 12 2 1 2
Big Ten 7 1 8
EIWA 4 1 5
EWL 2 1 3
MAC 3 0 3
PAC12 1 0 1
SoCon 3 0 3
West 2 1 2
TOTAL 25 6 29

Coaches Rank RPI Rank Name School Wins Losses Win% Safe Bubble Projected
1 1 David Taylor Penn State 24 0 100.0% 1 0 1
4 2 Nick Moore Iowa 16 2 88.9% 1 0 1
6 19 Daniel Yates Michigan 16 5 76.2% 1 0 1
7 10 Pierce Harger Northwestern 18 5 78.3% 1 0 1
13 15 Jackson Morse Illinois 17 4 81.0% 1 0 1
21 18 Austin Wilson Nebraska 13 11 54.2% 1 0 1
22 22 Ryan Leblanc Indiana 28 10 73.7% 1 0 1
25 16 Daniel Zilverberg Minnesota 11 11 50.0% 0 1 1
NR 31 Chad Welch Purdue 7 13 35.0% 0 0 0

Our Guy: when "your guy" is David Taylor, the math becomes really easy.

Rest of Big Ten: you wouldn't think it, because Taylor kills everyone, but 165 is as tough a weight, or nearly so, as 157. We see seven "safe" bids, and think that Zilberberg snags an 8th for good measure.

174 LBS

Safe Bubble Projected
ACC 3 0 3
Big 12 4 0 4
Big Ten 5 1 6
EIWA 4 1 4
EWL 2 0 2
MAC 3 3 5
PAC12 2 2 3
SoCon 1 0 1
West 1 0 1
TOTAL 25 7 29

Coaches Rank RPI Rank Name School Wins Losses Win% Safe Bubble Projected
3 2 Robert Kokesh Nebraska 24 1 96.0% 1 0 1
4 3 Logan Storley Minnesota 18 3 85.7% 1 0 1
5 5 Mathew Brown Penn State 23 3 88.5% 1 0 1
6 NR Michael Evans Iowa 14 3 82.4% 1 0 1
12 10 Mark Martin Ohio State 20 7 74.1% 1 0 1
15 NR Leroy Munster Northwestern 6 4 60.0% 0 0 0
25 NR Tony Dallago Illinois 12 8 60.0% 0 0 0
29 19 Scott Liegel Wisconsin 13 7 65.0% 0 1 1
NR 12 Collin Zeerip Michigan 14 11 56.0% 0 0 0
NR 24 Patrick Kissel Purdue 9 11 45.0% 0 0 0

Our Guy: really, it's not just David Taylor. All of the math gets easy for Penn State once you hit 165 and head north. Matt Brown, aka Hulk Hands, is bringing a bid to the conference tourney.

Rest of Big Tens: this weight isn't as tough as last year, when 8 of the national top 10 were Big Ten wrestlers. This year, it's only 4 or 5 of the national top 10. So much easier. One of those who won't be bringing a bid is Tony Dallago, the Central Dauphin 5th year senior wrestling for Illinois, who started the pre-season in the top 10. Lee Munster, another former top 10 wrestler, also is unlikely to bring a bid, after battling a knee injury for the last 4 or 5 weeks. Wisconsin's Liegel, a freakish athlete, is on the bubble as well, but we think he brings the Big Ten total to 6. If everyone was healthy and "on" in this weight class, we might be looking at 8 or 9 bids. Instead, you'll have desparate top 10 type of guys - about 9 of them - fighting for 6 spots.

184 LBS

Safe Bubble Projected
ACC 4 1 5
Big 12 0 1 1
Big Ten 5 3 6
EIWA 4 0 4
EWL 3 0 3
MAC 4 1 5
PAC12 2 1 2
SoCon 1 0 1
West 1 1 2
TOTAL 24 8 29

Coaches Rank RPI Rank Name School Wins Losses Win% Safe Bubble Projected
2 3 Edward Ruth Penn State 22 1 95.7% 1 0 1
4 NR Ethen Lofthouse Iowa 11 2 84.6% 1 0 1
8 4 Kevin Steinhaus Minnesota 15 3 83.3% 1 0 1
9 8 Timothy Dudley Nebraska 21 4 84.0% 1 0 1
11 5 Kenny Courts Ohio State 20 5 80.0% 1 0 1
19 NR Domenic Abounader Michigan 8 8 50.0% 0 0 0
23 11 John Rizqallah Michigan State 16 8 66.7% 0 1 1
26 NR Jackson Hein Wisconsin 11 5 68.8% 0 0 0
28 24 Lucas Sheridan Indiana 21 11 65.6% 0 1 0
31 16 Lazarus Reyes Illinois 14 7 66.7% 0 1 0
NR 30 Jacob Berkowitz Northwestern 8 12 40.0% 0 0 0

Our Guy: Ed freaking Ruth. That's all you need to know.

Rest of Big Tens: we have 3 guys on the bubble here - Rizqallah, Sheridan, and Reyes. A fourth, Abounader, is ranked in the top 20, but is on the outside looking in. So, this is another deep weight class. Having said that, though, we think only Rizqallah earns a bid out of those 4, leaving the conference total at just 6 instead of 9.

197 LBS

Safe Bubble Projected
ACC 5 0 5
Big 12 2 1 2
Big Ten 7 1 8
EIWA 3 2 5
EWL 1 1 2
MAC 2 2 3
PAC12 2 0 2
SoCon 1 0 1
West 1 0 1
TOTAL 24 7 29

Coaches Rank RPI Rank Name School Wins Losses Win% Safe Bubble Projected
2 1 Scott Schiller Minnesota 21 1 95.5% 1 0 1
4 2 Morgan McIntosh Penn State 24 2 92.3% 1 0 1
7 NR Mario Gonzalez Illinois 7 1 87.5% 1 0 1
8 14 Nick Heflin Ohio State 15 4 78.9% 1 0 1
12 15 Braden Atwood Purdue 20 7 74.1% 1 0 1
13 NR Nathan Burak Iowa 11 3 78.6% 1 0 1
14 9 Alex Polizzi Northwestern 15 7 68.2% 1 0 1
30 NR Caleb Kolb Nebraska 3 5 37.5% 0 0 0
31 29 Nick McDiarmid Michigan State 15 8 65.2% 0 1 1
NR 26 Timothy McCall Wisconsin 11 9 55.0% 0 0 0

Our Guy: Morg's golden, and probably gets the 1-seed at Big Tens, after Heflin knocked off Schiller to give Goldy's stud a second loss.

Rest of Big Tens: Sparty's McDiarmid is on the bubble, but we think he squares one. His .652 Win% certainly doesn't hurt his case. If he does, then the Big Ten gets 8 total bids. Nebraska's Kolb doesn't have the matches, or the wins this season - but he could take the 8th (or better) spot at Big Tens.

285 LBS

Safe Bubble Projected
ACC 4 1 4
Big 12 2 0 2
Big Ten 9 0 9
EIWA 4 0 4
EWL 2 0 2
MAC 1 2 3
PAC12 2 0 2
SoCon 1 1 2
West 1 0 1
TOTAL 26 4 29

Coaches Rank RPI Rank Name School Wins Losses Win% Safe Bubble Projected
1 NR Mike McMullan Northwestern 10 1 90.9% 1 0 1
2 1 Adam Coon Michigan 24 1 96.0% 1 0 1
3 NR Bobby Telford Iowa 12 3 80.0% 1 0 1
4 2 Adam Chalfant Indiana 21 2 91.3% 1 0 1
5 3 Anthony Nelson Minnesota 18 4 81.8% 1 0 1
7 6 Mike McClure Michigan State 21 5 80.8% 1 0 1
9 10 Connor Medbery Wisconsin 16 5 76.2% 1 0 1
12 5 James Lawson Penn State 15 4 78.9% 1 0 1
23 25 Collin Jensen Nebraska 19 9 67.9% 1 0 1
NR 27 Chris Lopez Illinois 8 15 34.8% 0 0 0
NR 33 Nick Tavanello Ohio State 15 12 55.6% 0 0 0

Our Guy: Law Dog is back, and even though he missed a month with a bad knee, he's done enough to bring a bid to the party.

Rest of Big Ten: Nine. Nine bids, and 7 of them are ranked in the top 10 nationally. This should be, even though it's the shaved bears, a very entertaining Big Tens weight.

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