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End of Days: Or, How the 2016 College Football Season Will Conclude, Including Bowl Projections

Initial assumptions:

  1. Penn State wins out. Only Indiana (5-4/3-3), Rutgers (2-7/0-6), and Michigan State (2-7/0-6) stand in the way between Penn State and a ten win regular season. FiveThirtyEight has this at a 55% chance of happening. If you thought that Penn State would finish the 2016 with ten wins, well, 1) you're a liar, and 2) proceed directly to Vegas to collect all of the money you better have placed on that season win total.
  2. CFP Rankings don't go haywire this week. I'll only assume the top 10, because who cares after that. But here is my best guess as to what we'll see Tuesday night, erring on the side of conservatism to keep Penn State Pessimism (TM) as high as possible:
  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson/Michigan
  3. Michigan/Clemson
  4. Washington
  5. Ohio State
  6. Louisville
  7. Wisconsin
  8. Auburn
  9. Texas A&M
  10. Penn State

Now, let's go to the schedules, and see if we can predict what will happen with each of these teams, and ultimately come up with a Penn State Fan's Rooting Guide to Greatness at the end.

Week 11

  1. Alabama - Win (vs. Miss. St.)
  2. Clemson - Win (vs. #LOLPitt)
  3. Michigan - Win (at Iowa)
  4. Washington - Likely win (vs. USCw)
  5. Ohio State - Win (at Maryland)
  6. Louisville - Win (vs. Wake Forest)
  7. Wisconsin - Win (vs. Illinois)
  8. Auburn - Win (at Georgia)
  9. Texas A&M - Win (vs. Ole Miss)
  10. PSU - Win (at Indiana)

Notes: Every Top 10 team has a fairly easy Week 11 matchup. PSU at Indiana will probably the closest line at kickoff (Wash/USC opened at 8, and Auburn/Georgia opened at 10). If you're rooting for chaos, a Washington loss most likely won't drop the Huskies out of the Top 10, so you're rooting interests this week are for any team between 5-9 to lose. Prediction: No change in the top 10.

Week 12

  1. Alabama - Win (vs. Chattanooga)
  2. Clemson - Win (at Wake Forest)
  3. Michigan - Win (vs. Indiana)
  4. Washington - Win (vs. Arizona)
  5. Ohio State - Win (at Michigan State)
  6. Louisville - Win (at Houston)
  7. Wisconsin - Win (at Purdue)
  8. Auburn - Win (vs. Alabama A&M)
  9. Texas A&M - Win (vs. UT San Antonio)
  10. PSU - Win (at Rutgers)

Notes: The SEC utilized some crafty scheduling, and each of Alabama/Auburn should cruise into their Iron Bowl matchup. Everyone else should have a fairly easy time, though Louisville has to go into Houston on Thursday night. But, once again, and barring chaos, nothing should change.

Week 13

  1. Alabama - Win (at Auburn)
  2. Clemson - Win (vs. Sakerlina)
  3. Michigan - Tossup (at Ohio St.)
  4. Washington - Tossup (at Wash. St.)
  5. Ohio State - Tossup (vs. Michigan)
  6. Louisville - Win (vs. Kentucky)
  7. Wisconsin - Win (vs. Minnesota)
  8. Auburn - Loss (vs. Alabama)
  9. Texas A&M - Tossup (vs. LSU)
  10. PSU - Win (vs. Michigan State)

Notes: Ahhhhh Chaos Week. Here is where things will get really interesting. Let's ignore the Apple Cup, unless Washington managed to lose one of their previous games. Three games are of importance here (assuming TAM doesn't drop below PSU in the rankings, of course). Let's make reasonable assumptions on the SEC games, and then go from there. Alabama is the best team in the country, so I can't see them dropping the Iron Bowl, even if it is in Auburn. That drops Auburn out of the top 10. LSU ran with Alabama as close as anyone has this season, and with TAM ranked higher I'll be pulling hard for the Tigers. Let's assume for the moment the Bayou Bengals can pull it out. That drops TAM out of the top 10. The good news about those two predictions is that each of those teams is ranked between Ohio State and Penn State.

Now, on to The Game. For Penn State to have any chance at a B1G CCG appearance, Ohio State would have to win this game. However, that would also require Michigan losing on of their previous two games. Since that is an almost certainty to not happen, #GoBlue. With Auburn and TAM losses, PSU is now just three spots behind OSU. An Ohio State loss to Michigan creates a massive headache for the Committee. You'd have three 2-loss B1G teams all within three spots of each other, with a transitive property issue (Penn State>Ohio State>Wisconsin {null set} Penn State). Each team would have a loss to Michigan, with the Pitt loss looming ever larger for Penn State's argument. How the Committee ranks the teams after this most plausible scenario will be of utmost importance to bowl season and Internet Debate. Let's assume the best on the field, but the worst in the polls...

Week 14

  1. Alabama - Win (vs. Bag of Rocks in SEC CCG)
  2. Clemson - Win (vs. UNC in ACC CCG)
  3. Michigan - Win (vs. Wisconsin in B1G CCG)
  4. Washington - Win (vs. Colorado in P12 CCG)
  5. Louisville - season over
  6. Ohio State - season over
  7. Wisconsin - Loss (vs. Michigan in B1G CCG)
  8. Penn State - season over

Notes: If we get to this point, we're still rooting for Michigan. A loss by any of the Top 4 creates chaos, but not enough to trickle all the way down to No. 8. The other wrench is going to be how the Committee treats the Wisconsin loss to Michigan in the CCG. If you operate under the assumption that any loss warrants a drop in ranking, there should be no issue. But I can see the argument whereby Wisconsin doesn't drop below Penn State, even with 3 losses.

Final, Pre-Bowl Rankings

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Michigan
  4. Washington
  5. Louisville
  6. Ohio State
  7. Penn State

Notes: This is why the Committee ranking after The Game is so important. The Top 4 teams head to the CFP. Louisville heads to wherever the ACC sends their second best team (Orange Bowl). That leaves Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin, among others, to fight for bowl berths.

Rose Bowl - they will "generally" take the higher ranked team, a phrase that is limited by other alleged factors. However, in reality, they are going to take the highest ranked (by CFP ranking) B1G team remaining. That's Ohio State or Penn State. Because of this, Penn State needs the Committee to have a reason to drop Ohio State an extra spot after a loss in The Game. Thus, Michigan needs to put a severe beating on Ohio State.

Cotton Bowl/Orange Bowl - We will know before December 4 one of the teams in each of these bowls, as the Cotton (best G5 team) and the Orange (ACC) have contractual obligations. The other two opponents will be selected at large by the Committee "to create the most compelling matchups, while considering other factors such as geographic proximity, avoiding rematches of regular-season games and avoiding rematches of recent years’ bowl games." I'm not sure which matchup - Western Michigan vs. PSU in Texas or Louisville vs. PSU in Florida - is more compelling.

TL; DR

You're rooting for:

  1. Penn State to win out. Obvi.
  2. Michigan to win out, at least through the CCG. As a subset of this, you're also rooting for a massively decisive Michigan victory over Ohio State in The Game.
  3. Relative status quo in the rest of the top 4.
  4. LSU over Texas A&M, Alabama over Auburn, and any additional chaos create against any team that is ranked between Ohio State and Penn State.
  5. Common sense from the CFP committee.

If all of that happens, Penn State has a good chance of playing in Pasadena on January 2.

[travels back in time, tells September Junny about Rose Bowl chances, is punched in the face]

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