With a mostly quiet second week (no ranked teams lost their games*), it was a lot easier to pick games last week. I won every game with the sole exception of Virginia Tech (thanks, Obama). It looked bleak for a moment when Penn State went down 28-7, but Your Boy Moorhead™ came through with the save.
These week’s games are actually a lot tougher to predict, but there should still be some good game to choose from.
The Picks
Houston -7.5 @ Cincinnati - Is Houston for real? After beating Oklahoma in a “neutral” field, Houston dispatched of its FCS cupcake, Lamar, 42-0. They now go on the road to face a Cincinnati team that looks good on paper, but shouldn’t be able to keep up with Houston’s offensive firepower.
As most of you already know, I’m not fond of half-point lines on favorites, so buy that half-point and make it an even 7 if you can. A push is 100% better than a loss.
Oregon/Nebraska OVER 73 - It seems Nebraska has found a defense. But Fresno State and Wyoming aren’t exactly, well, Oregon. You’d have to point a gun to my head to get me to say who wins this game, but I can tell you right now there will be points. Oregon allowed 28 to UC Davis and 26 to Virginia, while Nebraska has eclipsed 50 in each of their games. This could be a wild one that comes down to the last possession.
Duke +4 @ Northwestern - Maybe this is the game where Northwestern decides to play like a team who returned everyone from last season’s 10-win campaign, but until that happens I can’t take a line that has a 0-2 Northwestern team coming off a loss to FCS Illinois State not only winning, but winning by more than a field goal, seriously. Yes, Duke just lost to Wake Forest, but they’ve actually won a game this season. I’ll take my chances with the Blue Devils.
Miami -3.5 @ Appalachian State - Yes, Appalachian State is pretty good. Yes, they almost beat Tennessee on the road. No, Appalachian State isn’t keeping this game to a field goal. Could they win outright? Most definitely. Could they lose by 3? Most definitely. But after seeing Miami drop 70 on its FCS cupcake and another 38 on FAU, I’m inclined to think they’ll do just fine beating Appalachian State by 3 or more (because, of course, you’re going to buy that half-point and make it an even 3).
Fun Props
First things first, last week’s results:
Positions James Conner and Jordan Whitehead will play: 3.5 - UNDER. Conner stuck to Running Back, and Whitehead did not play every position on defense, unfortunately.
Percentage of Penn State fans at Heinz: 29.5 - OVER. Based on the eye test, I declare last week’s attendance as 30% Penn State fans.
Unsportsmanlike conduct penalties: 1.5 - OVER. If I recall correctly, there were two in the first quarter. Sheesh!
People ejected for targeting: .5 - UNDER. THANK CUTE AND FURRY THINGS!
Level of inebriation if Penn State wins 56-17: Zero beer emojis.
This week’s props:
Saquon Barkley touchdowns: 3.5
Total points scored by Temple: 17.5
Emails from the athletic department reminding me of what color to wear to the game: 10.5
Thinkpieces giving their #opinion on this weekend’s “celebration:” ∞
Last week’s record: 3-1
Season record: 3-4