Penn State - Michigan State Stat Comparison
by BSD
on Nov 20, 2008 12:00 PM EST
in Game Previews
Before I get into talking about the matchups, just take a second and stare in awe at those defensive numbers for Penn State. We're ranked in the top ten in rushing defense, passing defense, opponent QB rating, and scoring defense. Four of those are top five rankings. And we're ranked #14 in 3rd down defense and #20 in sacks. For all the crap we give our defense at times, those are some pretty historical numbers. I don't care what your level of competition is.
Michigan State is a middle of the road team. They don't excell or suck at anything. Most of their rankings fall in the mushy 30-75 range. So it's going to be hard for Penn State to dominate them in anything. They are a good team that isn't going to beat themselves.
I'm a little surprised by their offensive rushing yardage. With all the talk about Javon Ringer for Heisman I figured they would be averaging over 200 yards per game. What's interesting here is that while MSU is averaging 148 yards per game, Ringer is averaging 140 yards per game. So yeah, he's all they got. The next highest rusher on the team only has 97 yards for the season. Considering the way Penn State held P.J. Hill, John Clay, Beanie Wells and Shonn Greene (relatively) in check I think we'll do the same against Ringer. But if he's getting four yards on more on first downs look out.
So while Penn State holds the advantage in nearly every statistical category, only one or two of them can be considered a blowout. All of the evidence points to this being a close game, but one that Penn State should win by a score or two.
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Royster Not Meeting Heisman Quota
by Kevin HD
on Nov 4, 2008 9:45 AM EST
This is not a post about how Evan Royster should be a Heisman winner. It is a post about why he shouldn't care about whether he is a Heisman winner or not.
A while back Penn State's QB offered up the following as food for thought:
"If you want to talk Heisman and you want to talk running backs, Royster should be one of the top names, no question," Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark said.
Adam Rittenberg goes on in that piece to explain that (in so many words) Royster doesn't really have a shot because he simply doesn't get enough carries. The thing is he's right, and that is why it's such a stupid award.
A quick look at Rivals' power rankings and you'll see Royster is sitting behind three different backs from his own conference: Shonn Greene (#4), Chris Wells (#6), and Javon Ringer (#7).
Some stats:
So I think it's pretty clear what the story is here. Penn State's tailback is getting by far the fewest carries per game, yet putting up very impressive yardage and a ridiculous ypc average.
Now this isn't an attempt to take anything away from these four runningbacks, as Paterno would say they are all pretty good football players. What we are getting at is how to judge performance.
The one thing I love about baseball is the way you can isolate statistics and get a true gauge on what the real story is. I hate football stats for their lack of this characteristic. No sport is as dependent on a "team effort" as football. The backs can't run without a great line, the quarterback can't pass without an honest run threat, the receivers can't catch balls unless they are thrown properly, and an offense can't win games unless the defense stops the other team from scoring. Despite all of this, a player cannot even be considered for the award unless his team is elite, which, to be honest, makes it a lot harder to tell if the ‘stars' are actually that good or simply a product of a great situation.
That being said, I think all four of these backs are very good at what they do, and Royster's ability to turn three yard gains into 7.4 yard gains is pretty impressive. He lacks the carries because of Green's involvement in the offense, and doesn't score as many TD's because of the effectiveness of the 230 lb QB sneak. It's because this is such a great team that Royster has no shot. Because of this, it's important to not let the description of the Heisman fool you into thinking it's a real award.
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Vegas Knows Best: Things Get Less Exciting
by Kevin HD
on Oct 9, 2008 3:00 PM EDT
in Big Ten Conference
Initial Reaction: I've only watched one Toledo game (Fresno), and based on the way Michigan is playing I wouldn't have expected this to be more than 14.
Further Review: That Toledo game I did watch, a two OT loss to Fresno State, left me somewhat impressed with this particular member of the Ohio minor leagues (sometimes abbreviate as "MAC"). They were moving the ball well and actually looked like the better team most of the game. Since then, though, they've lost two more games, including one to airport-extraordinaire Florida International. Fresno State also proved a pretender. Michigan appears to be headed downward as well. The Wisconsin game was a good win, but it appeared to be more circumstantial. They were utterly owned by Illinois, failing to move the ball after the first quarter and taking a hit on defensive reputation (and coaching reputation?) by allowing Juice Williams to play well enough to ear the USA Today Player of the Week award.
Can I Get There? No, this one is going to be ugly and probably painful to watch for both Michigan and Toledo faithful.
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Vegas Knows Best: Other Big Ten Matchups
by Kevin HD
on Sep 30, 2008 1:16 PM EDT
in Football
This is an experimental post in which we'll look at the Big Ten lines and try to make some sense out of them. Format is subject to change, but for now I will give an initial reaction to the line, mention some of the relevant points, and then see if, after a deeper look at the matchup, I can reconcile my view with that of Vegas. Note that this isn't a picks post or some kind of attempt at tying to outsmart the books; consider it a case study in public perception.
Illinois @ Michigan
Michigan -2.5
Initial Reaction: Wait, Michigan -2.5? Is that right?
Further Review: Michigan did find some rhythm last week against Wisconsin, and from a confidence standpoint that win has to be huge, but they still have turnover issues and their personnel is still not the right fit for their system. They seem to have overcome some of the defensive woes we saw in the Notre Dame game, but Illinois' attack takes a lot more discipline to defend than the line-em-up-know-em-down Badgers. The option attack Zook rolled out in the second half last week could be very dangerous if Illinois is running it with the lead. On defense, Illinois did look very weak on running plays to the corners, and you have to think Michigan will be using those plays as their bread and butter.
Can I Get There? Maybe, but it's going to take me becoming a true believer in the Michigan defense. The ND score was misleading due to turnover and they did a good job with Wisconsin, but Illinois attack is a lot more like Utah than either of those schools and UM struggled there.
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2008 BSD Big Ten Previews - Michigan State Spartans
by BSD
on Aug 6, 2008 2:00 PM EDT
in Big Ten Conference
2007 Recap
2007 Record: 7-6 (3-5)
Spartan fans took a "wait and see" attitude into the 2007 season. They hadn't been to a bowl game since 2003, but there was reason for optimism as John L. Smith had finally slapped himself right out of town. Mark Dantonio took over and promised a return to the power running game of old. They started out 4-0 thanks to a couple cupcakes, a close win over Pitt, and a blowout win over the hapless Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
But once the conference slate came around it was a different story. The Spartans lost by three points in Madison and lost in overtime to Northwestern the following week. An impressive win over Indiana was followed up by a seven point loss to Ohio State. After back-to-back losses to Iowa and Michigan their impressive 4-0 start had become a 5-5 record and the Spartans were once again in danger of missing a bowl game.
A 48-31 win at Purdue ensured bowl eligibility, but in the final week of the season was when Michigan State pulled off their biggest win coming back from a 24-7 deficit to beat Penn State and lock up a bowl invitation. I don't know if Michigan State was more happy to go to a bowl game or take home the Land Grant Trophy, but we as Penn State fans must never forget this.
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