Black Shoe Diaries: FanPosts

PRYOR gets his nails done...read below.

2009-11-06T23:47:54Z

One of my friends moved to Columbus last year for work, although they are NFL fans they adopted the o$U as their college team.

From her facebook page...how cute. I hope he doesn't break a nail against PSU.

Emily - just found out that Terrell Pryor gets his nails done at the same place I do and the only week he missed was the Purdue week. Don't worry Buckeye fans...he was in earlier today!

11/7 O'Brien On-the-Road Campaign at Street Festival off Curtin Rd.!

2009-11-06T17:48:40Z

Attention all Daryll Clark fans: The Davey O'Brien On-the-Road Campaign will have a tent set-up at the Street Festival off of Curtin Rd. (next to Beaver Stadium) on Saturday before the game. Stop by and vote Daryll Clark for The O'Brien! Fans who vote at The O’Brien display will automatically be entered into the "Defend Your Pride. Vote O’Brien Sweepstakes," for a chance to win a trip for two to the 2010 O’Brien Awards Dinner at The Fort Worth Club in Fort Worth, Texas. The O’Brien displays will be open pre-game through kickoff.

Fans not able to cast a vote in person can register and vote at www.VoteOBrien.org. Online fan voting will close at noon CST on Nov. 22 and Finalists will be announced on Nov. 23. Finalists will be selected by The O’Brien Selection Committee, comprised of journalists, broadcasters, commentators and former winners, with the Fan Vote accounting for 5 % of the total vote.

Luck be a Lady Lion

2009-11-06T16:06:41Z

The best choice I made last week was not to boast about the fact that I'd gone 5-1 the previous week...because last week's 1-7 was just embarrassing. In each of the last two weekends, Iowa has covered on the last possible play--last play at MSU and, had Indiana tackled that guy on the final touchdown run, the Hawkeyes just kneel on it to end the game. That game almost killed my will to gamble...almost...

Even without the action, tomorrow is one of the days that make fall Saturdays special...enough entertaining/important games to keep you in the living room for a solid 8-11 hours, with the Nittany Lions playing a prominent role...

Wisconsin -10.5 at Indiana...I like this Hoosiers team, despite the fourth quarter FAIL, and I like the hook. Hoosiers +10.5

Western Michigan+20.5 at Michigan State...one of the lesser directional Michigan's, I believe...but still good enough to keep it tight with Sparty. WMU +20.5

Purdue +6 at Michigan...I can't believe Michigan is favored by almost a touchdown in this game; world's biggest drum +6

Illinois +7 at Minnesota...I can't just keep taking dogs, right? I like that new stadium in the twin cities too much: MINNESOTA -7

Northwestern +15.5 at Iowa...Kafka's back and the Wildcats have success at Kinnick...this game could make Northwestern's season. The craziest thing is I think I'm actually to put actually money against Iowa again...masochism +15.5

Ohio State +5 at Penn State...my "Penn State football" google news alert has been a buzz this week with stories about DC and Heisman contention. This is a defining game for his Penn State career/legacy. I think he plays his best game to date. Penn State has consistently gotten better this year; can't say the same thing about the $uckeyes. Just seems like our game to lose. Good guys -5

Louisiana State +7.5 at Alabama...I think we finally see some of these top teams start to hit the dust tomorrow...even if the Tigers doesn't win outright, though, I think they cover: LSU +7.5

Connecticut +17 at Cincinnati...Wouldn't surprise me at all for Connecticut to win this game; all four of their loses have been by four points or less...this one will be close: Huskies +17

Last week: 1-5 in the big11; 0-2 in other games; 1-7 overall

Total: 10-14 in the big11; 4-4 in other games; 14-18 overall

Open thread in case anyone is watching this mediocre game

2009-11-06T00:56:49Z

q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q qq q q q qqg gggg

75 words blah blah blah

not everyone is the perfect person in the world. everyone does. kills people. murders people. steals from you. steals from me. whatever.

blah blah I hate car commercials.

That Michael Oher movie will probably be terrible if you just go by the trailer.

Any Pre-Game Meet-up this week?

2009-11-06T00:19:04Z

Just wondering if anyone here is tailgating, and wouldn't HATE HATE HATE it if some BSD'ers showed up to say 'Hey, what's up, can we have some booze, and maybe some snacky s'mores"?

Mike, you gonna be outside Medlar again? Or do you just HATE HATE HATE it when weasels such as myself feel free to self-invite?

JtotheP was hitting on me in the wrestling post thread, and I'd feel safer in a group setting.

So? Will it happen?

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Getting a Pulse: How confident are you?

2009-11-05T20:22:42Z

Heading into last year's game I was outrageously confident we'd win. There wasn't a doubt in my mind. I think I predicted we'd win like 49-17 or something. Needless to say come 3rd quarter I was sweating bullets.

But this year is different, I'm nervous, I'm worried about our O-line, and I'm not sold on our safeties. I was wondering how confident people are around here. I know it's hate week, but let's be honest.

Poll

We're going to win right?

A preview of the game from the Ohio State perspective

2009-11-05T16:14:23Z

[EDIT: stolen from WLA. This saddens me because it means Katzenmoyer doesn't really write like this.]

hello come to tell you bout the ohio state football team football that plays really good football and i think youll not like them verr much no

1) ohio state has really good athletic quarterback call Elle Pryor he make lots of good plays with feet very athletic yes i think he really good and i thnk you muss contane him with big fasst bow and arrow name linebacker as spy

top 5 reason you will not defeat gainst the ohio state hawkeye football teem:

3) we hab lots moar tradition then you do becux you are not win national title lately and you have old man dat poops self haha

2) wen i was junior at the ohio state collegge we loss to da state pen football team in da state pen and i think the bucks wil lget der revenge becuas we are much better prepared not like stanly jackson who threw lots of picks and was not very smart footbal player jr year so no i think we get revenge for dat and i pissed at da espn for showin that game becus it not very relevant to current discussion bout da state pen and da ohio state and da footbal lgame that we and dey will play on sat. so i think it no smart at all.

6) the ohi ostate has much better blogs than you, i love 11w and da block o nation becuz they have lots of dunny posts bout old man that poops self hahahaha go bucks

5) when i was sr year at da ohio state we lose to michigan the good one not the big m michigan and i think coach cooper was there but anyway we lost to da nick satan and da good michigan and i think dis time for da ohio state to win national title so we hab to win dis week and we will becuaus

4) becuz we run awesome power run game an you run sisssy spread

7) cocch cooper always tell me i no spell good and shouldnt corruhspawnd (it really big word he say funny so i no spel) wit da meedia so i no do that but neway i think Da Elle Pryor betta talk to media anddat give him advantage so yeah

7) becuz jus like against iowa when your offense is in dawgfight it have no real thing to do so clark gets all pressereed and he maik bad decession becuz he put pressure on self and i no think dat good

10) michian sucks screw them

9) i think dats it no count realy good

8) because daryll clark hasnt defeated any real good competition yet and neither has pryor but clark has more to prove and gainst fierce buckeye front he may cause hiiself to thro lots of picks like he did gainst iowa so clark has pressure on himself and that not berry good not like joe germany who always calm and cooolected like when he bang hot chicccs in cooch coopers hous so neway i think clark will put pressure on himself and osu can easily shut down da state pen's run game put moar pressure on da clark so he make lots of mistakes and da psu still no play neone michigan nawt very good so i think clark not face real stiff test and succeed so he put pressure on hisself

i think dats it i no count ta 10 realy gut

so neway i big kat andy katzenmoyer and think dis gut game go osu not like da clarret weas here so pryor do good goodbye

Boise State in 2011?

2009-11-05T05:57:17Z

Source: http://voices.idahostatesman.com/2009/11/04/bmurphy/no_incentive_bcs_conference_teams_play_boise_state

WAC commissioner Karl Benson told the Idaho Statesman on Wednesday that Boise State is struggling to schedule a BCS-conference opponent for 2011 — even with the help (and exposure and money) of ESPN behind the effort.

The Broncos are not asking for a return game in Boise. Just one road game. And about 10 teams have turned the Broncos down, according to Benson.

Well that's interesting. I, for one, would welcome the chance to play Boise State at home. I can't really see any reason why this isn't already on the schedule. I mean... give me Alabama and Boise State at home in the same season and the SOS debate becomes one of "No quality road opponents" instead of "No quality opponents."

The article goes on to mention some teams that have open schedules (which is just speculation) but mentions that Penn State's schedule for 2011 is already full. I think they mean 2010 because here's Penn State's current home schedule for 2011

2011

Sept. 3 TBA

Sept. 10 ALABAMA

Sept. 17 at Temple

Sept. 24 TBA

Oct. 1 at Illinois

Oct. 8 OHIO STATE

Oct. 15 IOWA

Oct. 22 at Northwestern

Oct. 29 PURDUE

Nov. 5 OPEN

Nov. 12 WISCONSIN

Nov. 19 at Minnesota

Nov. 26

at Michigan State

Come on Tim Curley. Give us an early Christmas present... and ample time for Cairo to start thinking up some HATE!

Sanderson Locks, Loads, and....Locks Again

2009-11-05T02:02:24Z

Penn State wrestling's version of Midnight Madness kicks off tonight with Coach Cael Sanderson changing the usual wrestle-off format for starting spots into an intra-squad scrimmage. Preliminary eliminations have whittled the weight classes down to the top two (more or less), and the scrimmage winners will begin the season as starters. Except when they won't.

Confused? Then read on.

Sanderson has decided to redshirt (if possible, and injuries permit) his entire ass-kicking '09 recruiting class, even if some win in tonight's scrimmage. This isn't remarkable in itself; freshmen have a difficult time adjusting to both the physical and mental rigors of big time D-1 wrestling (Coach Cael being one obvious exception). Wrestling doesn't lend itself to Frosh Phenoms like other sports do, as wrestlers don't have the luxury of being specialists (e.g. nickel backs, kick returners, short yardage backs, etc.). They need to do it all themselves - offense, defense, 2-minute drill and running out the clock. It's very tough for an 18 year old to compete with a twenty-two or twenty-three year old with years of experience and mature man-strength in a one-on-one situation.

As much as we'd like to get a look at David Taylor (nation's #1 ranked recruit), Ed Ruth (#3) Jake Kemmerer (#9), and Luke Macchiaroli, it likely won't happen in a varsity setting this year.

Expect the same with next year's nasty group ('10 class), which already includes the Alton twins (Andrew #2, Dylan #5), Sam Sherlock (#17), and Dirk Cowburn (#47). Unconfirmed rumors indicate more gunslingers will be joining them; Sanderson is a HUGE draw for PSU.

Locking and loading is great, but...relocking? Sanderson plans on also redshirting '08 NCAA runner-up and senior Bubba Jenkins. Jenkins currently has academic issues, and isn't eligible until January anyway. Injuries kept him from repeating his NCAA showing last year, so another year in the practice room getting splattered by Cael should do wonders. He's National Champ material.

Relocking? Another unexpected redshirt is soph Quentin Wright, who had to step up last year as a true frosh because of lineup injuries. Boy, did he deliver: 33-13, and 6th at Nationals. That is amazing, especially at 174 pounds where he battled juniors and seniors all year. Coming back next season with sophomore eligibility and a year under Cael will be tremendous for PSU. More National Champ material.

These guys won't be stashed in a closet all year, though. All are allowed to wrestle in Open tourneys throughout the season, listed as 'Penn State - Unattached', and will gain invaluable experience. By season's end, our 'unofficial' team may be stronger than our varsity. Weird, but waaay cool for the upcoming years.

Sanderson also just received a committment from HS junior ('11) Nico Megaludis, currently the #2 ranked 112 pounder in the country. He was a Pa. State Champ last year as a soph, and a tough little dude. In other words - just our type. More commits for both '10 and '11 should begin rolling in after January

While this list of guys that WON'T be competing this year is impressive, it doesn't mean we'll be throwing out a team of stiffs this season. Far from it. The next update will focus on who IS wrestling, and we'll have a better handle on it after tonight.

I just wanted to give you a glimpse of what's in store for the next few years. Lots and lots of fun for us, but not so much for everyone else.

Cael Sanderson rocks.

Alisha Glass - SI Face in the Crowd

2009-11-05T00:16:49Z

If you look in the new Sports Illustrated (11/9/09) at the Faces in the Crowd section, they list Alisha Glass. I couldn't find a link on their website, I saw it in the actual magazine. They mention the 88-match streak.

Interestingly enough, when I did a search for Alisha Glass on their web site, I came across an article from '06 about Alisha, Megan Hodge and Blair Brown being the number 1 recruiting class for '06. This quote caught my eye:

This class definitely has a target on its back, though. Many people believe it should equal the success of the 1996 class, which produced three four-year starters, won one NCAA championship and finished second twice.

Do you think they've done that? Let's see:

one first and two seconds

vs.

two firsts & favored to win a third for the first threepeat ever, called the greatest team ever, most consecutive matches won, most consecutive sets/games won, four returning All-Americans this year.

Here's the whole article: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/dave_krider/06/27/krider.notebook/index.html

The Wind Blew Me Back Via Chicago

2009-11-04T21:10:33Z

[I was going to post this on the front page earlier in the week, but it's already getting late on Wednesday so we're saving front page stuff for Ohio State. Here's a picture recap of our trip to Chicago.]

Not that we had a lot of extra time to roam around, but Chicago is rather excellent. Great vibe to the city, beautiful scenery, nice people. Cheap public transportation. Really, all of the things that are good about big cities. We drove up to Evanston and tailgated with the PSU-Chicago group, which ran an All You Can Eat/Drink deal.

Eventually, we took the shuttle over to Ryan Field, which was probably 40% Penn State fans. Although nobody had seats quite as good as these two guys:

The stadium is old. Really old. At least it looks really old. The upper deck you see in the picture above couldn't have been more than 5% occupied. The endzone bleachers never got more crowded than what you see in the picture.

Ryan Field wasn't without its charm, though. Concessions were cheap, lines were short, and getting around the place was easy. Northwestern has the names of their All-Americans across the façade of the upper deck, along with their bowl appearances (and yes, they actually posted their 2003 Motor City Bowl appearance up there).

So, yes, lots of Penn State images:

And yay we won.

The next day, we did a little walking around Millenium Park and the Wicker Park neighborhood. And seriously, giant shiny jellybean:

This is "Cloud Gate":

The 110-ton elliptical sculpture is forged of a seamless series of highly polished stainless steel plates, which reflect the city's famous skyline and the clouds above. A 12-foot-high arch provides a "gate" to the concave chamber beneath the sculpture, inviting visitors to touch its mirror-like surface and see their image reflected back from a variety of perspectives.

And yeah, it's kind of massive and cool. Half the fun was watching other people be amazed by it.

Would love to check out Madison someday, but it's hard to beat Chicago for a weekend road trip.

OSU players with ridiculous claims: Where have we heard this before?

2009-11-04T18:51:36Z

A few years ago, in 2007, when I first started visiting this wonderful blog, I E-mailed Mike to let him know that Malcolm Jenkins was lying to the media about his experience at Beaver Stadium. Here's a link (http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/21443422/). He said the following, referring to OSU's trip to Beaver Stadium in 2005: "That’s probably the first time — the only time — that’s ever happened. ... People cursing you and spitting at you, and things like that.". Perhaps he was just embellishing things a bit to make sure his comments made it to print, but it came at the expense of our fans and I simply can't put up with that.

Well, fellow Penn Staters, flash forward to this year and check this out (http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=87743&SPID=10408&DB_OEM_ID=17300&ATCLID=204827225). Apparently, some kind of creepy urban legend is starting to catch hold. Here's a little excerpt from the linked article:

Sometimes, the Nittany Lions faithful might carry that [passion] to the extreme. That becomes evident when visiting teams almost have to run a gauntlet down a walkway underneath the stadium to get to the field.

''It's something. They're throwing stuff at you, spitting on you, yelling everything you can think of at you,'' Spitler said, smiling. ''But it doesn't bring you down, it really fires you up and gets you going. I think it's a positive in a way for us.''

What in the world is going on here??? I'm a Penn Stater living in Columbus and I have to tell you... the trash talk about our fans, stadium, and gameday environment is getting a bit outlandish. Frankly, I'm starting to get pissed off about it. What's the freakin' deal with this crap?

HATE WEEK: OHIO $TATE

2009-11-03T20:38:27Z

It's hate week, it's real, and it's on now.

The Breakdown:

WHO

The Ohio State Way.
Source: Not the NCAA Committee on Infractions, apparently.

WHO: Ohio $tate University, or "The reason all of this Mainstream Media Hate on the Big Ten is Happening University." This team's continued ability to NOT show up against teams with less than three losses has negated any and all of the rest of the Big Ten's success over the past four years. So we didn't pull it out in the Rose Bowl last year, do you really think it would have changed anyone's perception of the conference since the Buckeyes lost to Texas? This team may have fallen to third place in the Big Ten standings, but they are still the alpha dog in this fight. Penn State, Michigan, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Miami, Notre Dame... all of these teams know what it's like to go through a some dark years. Buckeye fans are nervous, they know their team isn't performing up to par, that they might be entering a period of uncertainty. Every downturn starts with a double-whammy: a HORROR loss to a terrible team (Michigan v App State, Penn State v Toledo), and a demolishing loss to a top-rated squad. They had the first shoe drop with the loss to Purdue, but they still lack that game, that 29-5 beatdown to USC that leaves you exposed and weak, that 39-7 beatdown to Oregon that shows Your Way is dated and on its way out. Penn State has the skills to give them that soulcrushing loss that sends them bleary-eyed to Alamo Bowl, wondering what happened to their run to the championship. It's time to give them what they deserve.

If their coach was a West German music act from the late ‘70s/early ‘80s:

Come to Ohio $chtaten!
Source: Home video.

The fourth in a six-part series. Unlike previous editions of ITCWAWGMAFTL70s/E80s, this movie actually features Ohio State Buckeyes coach Jim Tressel. After twenty seconds of intro by a guy in the official "poser rebel" wardrobe of 1978, he shakes the hand of Jim Tressel, decked out in a Buckeye red shirt. Look! No sweater vest! Then, he and future assistant coaches begin to perform their recruiting pitch to a live TV audience. It's a bit difficult to understand, but they essentially discuss their offensive game plan while mimicking one of the many iso plays away from motion that they've run for the past decade. Hey it worked to get Terrell Pryor (and provided the impetus for one of Mike Myers funniest skits), so they must have something here.

WHAT

The The looks up The in thesaurus for The Ohio $tate.
Source: The Internet.

WHAT: The. You know what I'm talking about: you're at home, settling down early in the first quarter to watch Sunday Night Football when the players state their names and the university/high school where they played. Up comes some player who cocks one eyebrow, smirks at the camera, and goes "(name), THE Ohio $tate University." As if we're supposed to be blown back by their use of a definite article. The Ohio $tate University. Thanks. Without the "the" I'd have figured it was one of many potential Ohio $tates. Perhaps you went to Ohio $tate University de Paraguay. Good thing you spelled it out for me, genius.

Here's what you really spelled out: "I'm a conceited idiot, and I think I'm more specialer than you." Congratulations, you sold me!

WHERE

The first image that comes up in a google image search for "Happy Valley." Man, it's changed since I was last there!
Source: Google Images. Perhaps I need to go to Bing.

WHERE: On the Banks of the Mighty Spring Creek. OK, just above it and that old old iron forge thing next to College Ave and Porter Road. This is a home game and is a rare non-crappy 2009 opponent. For once, there is NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST! So we have a big time opponent, a BCS bowl appearance on the line, mild weather, and a good start time. Anything less than a full, crazy, wild crowd in the Best Stadium in the Country (it's on Bleacher Report so it must be true) is impossible. Let's give Turkish Soccer a run for their money. PSU is 5-4 all time at State College in the Penn State-Ohio $tate rivalry and was embarrassed the last time the Buckeyes came to town in a 37-17 loss. This will change.

WHEN

November Sunset and Moonrise at Penn State
Source: http://live.psu.edu/image/23030

WHEN: 3:30pm Eastern on the ABC/ESPN system. Restrictions on night games be damned, this is State College in November. It means the lights will be on, the crowd will be glowing white, and Pryor will be introduced to tall fescue by Jared Odrick. Repeatedly. Which brings me to...

WHY

Tamba Hali and Navorro Bowman celebrate Ohio $tate's Big Ten championship titles in 2005 and 2008.

Source: Ohio Sports Hall of Fame.

WHY: If you have to ask why, then you haven't been following Penn State football long enough. I'll try to bring you up to speed. Why? Because of "four consecutive Big Ten titles". Because 324 happened against Ohio $tate. Because of 1912. Because of the Big 33. Because we're too country. Because 63-14. Because 63 points leaves us wanting 70. Because of the scene. Because of the stakes. Because they bring out the best in us. Because you don't need a Hate Week post to know it's Hate Week. Because its our season. Because we are not normal. Because We Are. Penn State! Hate. Hate! HATE! HATE!

You found us! 11-3-09

2009-11-03T18:56:10Z

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I prefer "RichRod accepts his fate".

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I want rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers, Methodists, and Chris Jacquemain!

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We have a new motto.

Get Out And Vote (Especially In Centre County!)

2009-11-03T15:39:38Z

Turnout's going to be extremely light today because there aren't a lot of contests, but if you're in Centre County and you're tired of the unbelievably crappy job by Mike Madiera and his District Attorney's office (and really, no matter your political persuasion, it's hard to argue that the guy is anything less than incomptent and/or corrupt), get out there and cast a vote for Stacy Parks Miller.

The New Format - Please Read

2009-11-03T14:38:55Z

Yeah, so you probably noticed the new BSD facelift by now. I understand there may be some bugs with it. I assure you that there is a team of technicians working around the clock to make this transition go as smoothly as possible. If you happen to see a bug or have a problem, please leave a comment in this thread and I'll pass it along to the SBN technical support team. If you are experiencing a cosmetic problem like an advertisement covering up text, including a screen shot would be helpful.

Please include information on which browser you are running.

Thanks for your patience.

Wins Over Ohio State and Minnesota Have Already Happened

2009-11-02T22:53:33Z

Number 9 in your programs, number 1 in your hearts...Blair Brown.

WOMEN'S VOLLEYBALL UPDATE TIME!

Many of us watched the beat down laid on Ohio State on Wednesday, and if you watched the BTN on Sunday evening, you also saw the destruction of then-No. 7 Minnesota (which actually occurred on Friday night). Each match was straight sets and the usual suspects all had spectacular games.

Last Wednesday, Ohio State came to town 4 days before Hate Week officially started, but no one told our women's volleyball team. The team won handily in straight sets. Megan Hodge, Alisha Glass, Ari Wilson, et al had their usual dominating performances. This was another solid performance by the best team in the country. More importantly, Blair Brown has very quickly become my favorite player not named Megan Hodge, both for her solid play and extreme good looks.

On Friday, Minnesota came to town seeking some revenge on Devil's Night. Instead, the Gophers laid an egg, not scoring more than 17 points in a game. The Gophers then traveled to OSU on Saturday and got upset in Columbus. All in all, a disappointing weekend for the female Gophers. In the PSU game, again, the usual suspects were on fire. Megan Hodge hit .429, uber-freshman (and runner up in my favorite player not named Megan Hodge list) Darcy Dorton hit .636, and Alisha Glass was her marksman self. This game also marked the 88th straight victory, tying the UCLA men's basketball team in their chase for the ever-confusing-longest-streak-in-college. Common sense says the record is 92, but common sense is in the eye of the beholder.

The games aside, the two most important items of women's volleyball news happened Monday. First, Megan Hodge was named Big Ten Player of the Week for the second time this year, and Darcy Dorton was named co-Freshman of the Week (with some Illinois girl whose name I was too lazy to look up). Second, somehow Texas managed to steal MORE first place votes in the Top 25. Penn State still has a big lead, but some of the voters have switched in each of the past two polls. I guess 6 more victories in one of the toughest conferences is fodder for LOSING ground in the Top 25. However, this sport has a playoff. So there's that.

The women travel to sunny Madison on Friday and to honeymoon-worthy Iowa City on Saturday. Both games are at 7 central, 8 eastern.

The O'Brien On-the-Road Campaign Traveling to Penn State!

2009-11-02T22:21:53Z

The O'Brien On-the-Road Campaign will be coming to Penn State this weekend (November 7th against Ohio State) to promote Daryll Clark's campaign for The O’Brien! Stop by The O'Brien display and vote for your favorite quarterback. Visit On-the-Road Campaign or www.VoteOBrien.org for more information. Remember every vote counts!

Fans who vote at The O’Brien display will automatically be entered into the “Defend Your Pride. Vote O’Brien Sweepstakes,” for a chance to win a trip for two to the 2010 O’Brien Awards Dinner at The Fort Worth Club in Fort Worth, Texas.

In Defense of Statistics: In Defense of Polls

2009-11-02T21:22:01Z

It's been a long while since I posted an In Defense of Statistics post. The idea behind these was to explain exactly how the statistical rankings work. I know, crazy people (including the BCS) call them computer rankings, but the computers aren't evaluating games. For the most part, the computers are just solving a system of equations that simple statistics ("the better team is likely to win") sets up.

This one is a little backwards. I'm defending the human polls. That's right. The horribly biased, terribly flawed, human polls. You know them, you hate them, right? I mean, there's that crazy love for the SEC and USC, there's the weird preseason bias where if you're highly ranked at the beginning, you've got an easier path, and then there's just the all-around stupidity that comes from the Harris poll. It's nuts, right?

Strangely, no. Believe it or not: the polls are surprisingly good, and you can prove it. With math.

Yes, People Actually Study This Stuff

There's actually been a fair amount of research into the AP/AFCA (Coaches') polls, mainly because it's a good example of human decision-making in aggregate - the "wisdom of crowds" - and this is, of course, interesting to people in economics, where failures in the "wisdom of crowds" costs actual money.

AP Voters Do Overreact

A lot of the most interesting stuff just came out this year. D.F. Stone, a professor at Oregon State, did research into AP voters' decision making methodologies, and found that voters tend to base their decision primarily on the scoring margin of the game, but they tend to overreact. The "money quote," in my opinion, is this:

I find that the voters do not respond sufficiently to relatively subtle aspects of game results (the
signals), namely, home status and margin of victory over unranked opponents. The voters respond
in a more Bayesian way to margin of victory over ranked opponents and margin of loss against all
opponents.

This, to me, is interesting, because I think this is how almost all of us would like teams to be ranked. We don't care how you pummel creampuffs. We care how bad you lose to a creampuff, and how good your victories over good teams are. This may not be the most predictive result, but ranking teams isn't about predicting performance, it's about evaluating a team's season, and I don't think anyone would really argue with that methodology.

Stone also found evidence that voters tend to overreact immediately after a game - this is almost certainly where the "it's better to lose early" belief, which seems to be real, comes from. That overreaction is common in human decision making. His conclusions appear to support the hypothesis that in general, the polls work well, but the problem is that the AP voters are overtaxed - ranking accurately takes too much work, so they take the easy route out.

The question, though, is how bad is the problem? If the 'easy route' works almost perfectly, is it really that bad? When you consider that the BCS uses a merger of human polls and statistical rankings, maybe the "easy route" is all you really need.

... but there's no preseason bias, and Penn State readers are about to kill me

The other interesting paper that came out recently was a paper by Ross, Larson, and Wall, which looked for conference biases in the AP/AFCA poll, as well as a possible preseason bias. They looked at the AP/AFCA poll from 2003-2008, so the sample size is pretty large.

The results may shock you. First off, again, "the polls are pretty good." The higher-ranked opponent wins ~80% of the time. But there are a few biases, and they're not what you would expect.

The first was presented elsewhere: Campbell, Rogers, and Finney had shown that there's a bias in the AP/AFCA polls towards television coverage. This isn't surprising - when you can see the game, you have a stronger reaction towards the victor and against the loser because you understand the game more. That bias gets confirmed via a proxy of population size, although the real source is almost certainly television coverage.

The other interesting thing is this: there's no weekly effect. That is, the poll was roughly equally accurate at all points in the season. Teams which are ranked high early don't tend to linger and be overrated throughout the season - there is no preseason bias. This agrees with Stone's findings: the polls overreact, and so the preseason rankings don't have a real effect. Also note that this semi-contradicts a finding elsewhere, but the study there was fairly simplistic, and even that author noted that the effect was very small. If preseason rankings are not entirely inaccurate, adding them to a model to predict a final ranking will add information that might not be present. This does not indicate a preseason bias - it indicates that voters aren't stupid. You could likely get a similar result by adding a ranking midway through the season.

As for conferences: the conference that the poll was most biased for? The MAC. Yes, the MAC. I'm not kidding. When polls rate a MAC team, they tend to be overrated. This is probably not really a bias for the MAC. The MAC's had only two teams that ended the year ranked, back in 2003, and the lower-ranked team actually upset the higher ranked team. Other than that, the only ranked teams have proved to be unworthy of that ranking. The authors acknowledge this - it's akin to the "long shot bias" in betting, where heavy favorites win more than you would expect.

But there was a major conference with a statistically-significant bias, and you wouldn't expect sample size to be an issue here: AP/AFCA polls were biased against the SEC, at about a 5-10% likelihood level.

I know, I know. I'm dead to you now. But don't kill the messenger - this is just statistics here. And the size of the bias isn't that large. To be honest, I can come up with an explanation that might further get me killed - quite a few SEC teams have been good over that period, and rankings are ordinal - that is, you can't tie teams. Since there are fewer "top" spots, that'll produce a downward bias in the rankings.

It should also be noted that this might be cyclical - that is, the SEC was underrated early this decade, and now it may be being overrated because it had been underrated for a while. Might the Big Ten experience the same thing when its big-money teams finally stop being mediocre (cough Michigan cough)? Quite possibly.

Can we make them better?

Now it's the opinion part. Clearly, the polls aren't that bad. There's no preseason bias, there's negligible conference bias, and in general voters seem to be prioritizing what we'd like them to do.

Can we do better? I can't say for certain. I can say that the authors of the research pointed out important points - first, the AP Poll acted as you would expect if the voters were overworked. Makes sense - they have other jobs. So it might make sense to create a panel of voters who have the time - that is, they're paid for it, who can see any of the games they wish (free ESPN GamePlan!), and whose performance is periodically monitored to avoid bias or poor voting. It might make sense to do the same for coaches, too - instead of using active coaches, use, say, retired coaches.

Will this work? I have no idea. It might not be feasible. It might be more inaccurate than what we currently have. And finally, it might not be worth it, because as noted above, surprisingly, things aren't that bad.

Mostly-Possible Bowl Predictions

2009-11-02T20:42:32Z

It's that magical time of year, when college football gurus, pundits, columnists, and blogistas have a decent snapshot of the season and start making wildly ~~entertaining~~ ~~insightful~~ inaccurate bowl predictions for those of us ~~too stupid to look at conference standings and bowl tie-ins~~ bored enough to read them. I accidentally read one already. The title gave the appearance that the article contained news. I soon realized it didn't, but the lead paragraph falsely implied that the rest of the article would be interesting. Needless to say, I tried it and it sucked (TM).

So rather than look around for additional, related drivel, I figured I'd drivel up a list of predictions myself. Starting with the premise that we ignore the extremely unlikely possibilities ("PSU trounces SouthernCaliTexaFloriBama to win title of greatest team ever!" or "Blue Band marches an intricate Strike-through of the Script Ohio drill, declared New Best Damn Band in the Land!"), here's what I consider an entertaining scenario for the end of the season and bowls:

Texas loses a game down the stretch and doesn't make the title game. Alabama and Florida are both undefeated until the SEC Championship; Alabama wins. Oregon, USC, and PSU win out. Cincinnati and Boise State also win out to finish undefeated. TCU drops a game, and everyone on their bandwagon jumps behind Boise State.

MNC: Iowa vs. Alabama. Vegas sets the over/under at 6.5. Gamblers rake in millions when Alabama kicks a field goal in the third quarter. Final score: Iowa 4, Alabama 3.
Rose Bowl: Oregon (Pac10 champ) plays Boise State (at-large bid because Big10 champ Iowa is in the NC) in a rematch everyone wants to see. Oregon State is up big with 10 minutes to play, when the game degenerates into a series of sucker-punches. Every elegible player for either team is knocked out cold. The NCAA bans both teams from playing football forever, and we never see the blue turf or gauduckulous uniforms again for as long as we live.
Fiesta Bowl: PSU vs. Texas. Colt shoots himself in the ~~Burress~~ foot by throwing six interceptions. PSU wins big.
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech beats USC. This leaves USC with three losses, two to "inferior" teams, but they're really glad they got to play someplace other than the Rose Bowl.
Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati beats Florida. It is an eye-opening experience for Tebow, who didn't realize there were so many heathen non-believers in the Ohio River Valley. He spends the next two years as a missionary to the region, but tragically is eaten by canibals.

Both Cincinnatti and Iowa are still undefeated. A mythical-national-seance is held, Nixon's ghost is conjured, and Iowa is declared champions.

Sept. 3	TBA
Sept. 10	ALABAMA
Sept. 17	at Temple
Sept. 24	TBA
Oct. 1	at Illinois
Oct. 8	OHIO STATE
Oct. 15	IOWA
Oct. 22	at Northwestern
Oct. 29	PURDUE
Nov. 5	OPEN
Nov. 12	WISCONSIN
Nov. 19	at Minnesota
Nov. 26