I had a history professor in college, I don't remember her name or even the class she taught, but she would routinely stop her lecture in order to make sure we understood that no one knew how to say things quite like the ancient Greeks. In a constant attempts to get at the meaning of something, she was routinely frustrated with the fact that the English language simply wasn't capable of getting at the truth.

And so I can only imagine if she somehow got herself into computing Points Per Possession for college basketball teams and indulged in the related analysis.

When you take the offensive and defensive PPP stats, you can get a net number that allows for a projected record (Pythagorean Wins, which are also commonly used in baseball).

When you stray from that number, the term "luck" is used to explain the difference. As John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus explains:

Luck is defined by me as: the difference between a team's actual winning pct. (in-conference, the way I do it) and the winning pct. that would be predicted by that team's per-possession scoring margin. For instance if a team scores one point per possession and gives up one point, they would be predicted to go 9-9 in the Big Ten. If they go 11-7 they're "lucky." If they're 7-11 they're "unlucky." This post by a Georgetown blogger covers a lot of the same ground that I do and has way better graphics.

And here is where things take a horrible and tragic turn. 

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The weekend before this past one was a brutal experience, softened slightly by everyone expecting it to be so.  Texas swept the Nittany Lions, and although there were some great individual performances against the Longhorns, the no-hitter put an end to the sweep and the team was forced to regroup.

And on that note the schedule couldn't have turned out to be any better.  While then #8 now #2* Texas went on to beat Texas State and take two of three on the road against nationally ranked Stanford, Penn State had a chance to break from the elite and earn some wins the old fashion way.

*Or #3 or #4, baseball is fun this way.

A three game weekend against (now) 2-11 Akron, 3-11 Lehigh, and 1-6 St. Joseph's was just what the doctor ordered.

3/7/09 - Penn State 10, Akron 4

For five innings on Friday domination was spelled M-A-C-Y.  Look at this statline:

His YTD stats?  An ERA of .90, BA against .145, and an SO/BB of 24 (!) / 7. 

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Going against the Penn State Athletic Department grain, the baseball team scheduled their first regular series of the season against a perennial powerhouse in the UT Longhorns. Rather than give the team a couple of weeks to get used to the warm weather, Coach Wine messed with Texas (R).

To no one's surprise, it didn't go very well.

2/27/2009 - Texas 9, Penn State 2

The storyline here was how well #1 starter Lorentson would recover from giving up 10 runs (7 earned) on 11 hits in 4.2 innings against St. John's in the season opener.

It probably could have gone better. He only made it through 3.2 on Friday, giving up 7 runs (3 earned) on six hits, SO/BB of 3/3. Cianciolo, Palen, Pierce and Alfreno all did a nice job of finishing the game for him, but the damage was done and Penn State wouldn't be able to recover from the 7 run fourth.

The thing that has to really be grinding Lorentson's gears is the errors his teammates are saddling him with. Deese had two errors in the season opener; Nakata has two errors on Friday. While it makes it hard to get through innings, it's also an emotional let down to know you could have been out of the inning with everything in tact.

Penn State was getting on base, they had 9 hits and two walks, but the middle of the order often times left them stranded. The team finished with 10 LOB.

2/28/2009 - Texas 6, Penn State 2

Similar to the Friday night game, Penn State was playing well until things unraveled in the 4th; Texas scored four on just two hits. It was a classic shoot yourself in the foot frame, with the opening batter getting beamed, two more walks and a couple of wild pitches allowing everyone to move us.

Deese went 0-3, making him 0-8 in the series up to that point. Wine continued to hit behind him, however, and had himself a good weekend. His current line is .444/.500/.667.

2/28/2009 - Texas 1, Penn State 0

T.J. Macy gets the loss here but showcases exactly why keeping track of a pitcher's W/L is so stupid. He went eight full innings and gave ups just one run on five hits, SO/BB 7/3. He leads the team with a 1.59 ERA and has an avg against of .137.

He just couldn't get any support. Penn State had five hits on the day but couldn't get anyone in. It was still a good showing, though, and seeing Macy play so well for the second straight start in encouraging.

3/1/2009 - Texas 9, Penn State 0

And just when it looked like the team was coming around, Texas' fourth starter, Brandon Workman, throws a nine inning no-hitter.

At least we didn't have any errors.

There isn't too much to say, really. Workman struck out 10, including leaving Deegan just one SO short of a golden sombrero. He walked just two.

The 10th Inning...So the four game sweep leaves Penn State sitting at 2-5, and while that looks awful it's as good as anyone could have hoped for before the season. It would have been nice to steal one in Austin, but the Longhorns are now 9-0 and look like a legitimate CWS contender. As much as PSU baseball has improved in the last three years, Texas is in another stratosphere.

Penn State has some time to rest and relax in the snow before taking on fellow northerners Akron and St. Joseph's this weekend in Palm Beach.

So in something you might compare to PSU basketball taking on Duke in Durham four times in three days, the Penn State baseball team continues their early season non-conference schedule against #8 ranked Texas [or #4, your choice really].

While Penn State hopes every year to bring in some talent; Texas often hopes that their recruits will actually sign on rather than simply going pro out of high school. They have six national championships and one as recent as 2005.

So hold on to your seats and let's see what we're made of. Keep the optimism low and, if all else fails, there is always the old "we can't practice in the snow" routine.

The important thing today is how Lorentson rebounds from getting blasted in the season opener.  He's still our Friday starter and it's important that he find his confidence.  His ERA currently sits at 13.50 with a .485 avg against.  Scott Kelley and T.J. Macy take the mound Saturday; if they can continue what they started during the Big East BIG EAST-Big Ten Challenge, it could go a long way to filling what most considered one of Penn State's biggest holes: depth on the mound.  I'm also interested to see how slugger Mike Deese plays against top of the line pitching, his current AVG/OBP/SLG is .583/.667/.667, so yeah, we need more power.

• BON has their preview up, complete with bullets and pitching matchups.
• TexasSports.com has your notes.
• Check out the Collegian preview.
• Live game tracker for today's 3:00pm 4:00pm game here (central time strikes again!).
• And your game trackers for Saturday Early, Saturday Late, and Sunday.

Your weekly review of the Penn State baseball team.

TheGunslinger, community member extraordinaire, has been providing your post game wrap-ups this weekend.  Check them out through the links below.

Penn State started their season this weekend as part of BIG EAST-Big Ten Challenge (yes, BIG EAST is in all caps for some reason).

St. John’s 15, Penn State 6

BSD post-game

A pretty awful way to start the season, this one got out of hand in the 5th and completely out of reach in the 8th.  There were some bright spots: 1B Mike Deese had a killer day at the plate, although he also had two errors in the field.

Penn State put up six runs (although really only four when the game was still in question) and could improve on their 13 runner stranded; a frustrating thing to see but one that usually means things are working in the right direction.

And besides, Penn State is in good company.  The Phillies lost their season opener too, 11-6, to an eventual 100+ game loser no less.  Besides, St. John's is kind of good, defending Big East BIG EAST regular season champs in fact.  They are expected to slip a bit, the coaches guessed they would finish fourth this year, but it's just one game and Penn State didn't have much time to dwell on it anyway, with two more games in the next two days.

Penn State 9, Northwestern 1

BSD post-game

Penn State immediately turned it around the next day, taking care of Northwestern 9-1.  Deese was moved to DH, perhaps because of his trouble in the field the day before, got on base twice and scored both times.

Scott Kelley, who spent most of last year either on the bench or playing outfield (some background here), had a great first start, striking out 5 through 5.2. 

Despite driving in 9, the team again left 13 men on base.

NUSports Wrap-Up | Collegian Wrap-Up

Penn State 6, Seton Hall 1

These are the kind of games that make baseball so much fun.  Penn State, despite out-hitting Seton Hall 8 to 2 through 8, found themselves down a run in the top of the ninth.

Michael Glantz starting things off with a walk, who moved to second on a Jordan Steranka single and then to third on a Rick Marlin bunt that even Bill James might approve of.  From there it was mostly fireworks; Penn State hit through three Seton Hall pitchers and would eventually take what was a last ditch attempt to tie the game in the final frame and turn it into their biggest inning of the weekend.  Stud cleanup hitter Mike Deese added the final insurance runs on a 2 RBI single, he went three for five to top off a very strong 'challenge' performance.

T.J. Macy, who like Kelley before him was starting for the very first time, went 8 inning, struck out 8 and walked 2.

GoPSUSports Wrap-Up | Collegian Wrap-Up

The 10th Inning Bullets

• The opener was ugly, of course, but Penn State was swinging the bats well and unfortunately didn't have the pitching to make it a game.  St. John's went on to kill Iowa (18-3) the next day but then fall to Big Ten favorite Michigan 4-2.
• Northwestern was an important rebound game moral wise but also the first indication that two of Penn State's first year starters, Kelley and Macy, could turn into very strong performers.
• Northwestern was able to beat Georgetown, however the Hoyas went 0-3 on the weekend.  UConn beat NW 10-1.
• Seton Hall was definitely the better of the two wins.  Not only was the 9th ending character building, it happened against a team that had beaten Minnesota and MSU by a combined 13 runs.
• Senior Mike Deese missed all but six games last year because of a wrist injury, but he seems to be back to himself.  He finished the weekend with a BA of .583 and OBP of .667.
  

What started as a pipe dream is now, well, possible. And like all blue-bloods should when they fear their hopes are too high, let us turn to some third party projections.

There have been a lot of big wins in the last six or seven years, but those wins were mostly remarkable because of how poorly the team would play either right before or right after said victory. It's probably safe to say that this recent win at Michigan State did more for the program's image than any in the last 8, maybe 14 years. To twist a Paterno quote into a paraphrase: you never fly higher than after your biggest win. With a tough stretch of games ahead, the enthusiasm is bound to roll up and, yes, possibly down.

But let's enjoy it while it lasts. ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi, whom Wikipedia claims has picked 33 of the last 34 at large teams since 1998, can be counted as a believer:

Lunardi lists them fourth on his list of "last four in", probably because they are literally the last team he included.

Bracketology 101 puts out a weekly projection as well, their thoughts?

The 9s
Davidson, Penn State, Kentucky, Georgetown

Nine?! Call him a believer!  Especially considering he doesn't qualify the pick by including the Nittany Lions on his "last four in" list.

I sent them a quick email to make sure I was understanding their method, and Chris responding by saying "based on what they've done plus what they have left, we think that Penn State will make the tournament."  So it's both backward and forward looking.  He added that he "like[s] their chances more than ever of getting to 10 wins in conference, which will get them a bid."

So what exactly does lie ahead? Penn State was able jump from an RPI in the 70's last week and land a spot at #66. It's a modest lift, but considering the dead weight that is their OOC schedule, still an impressive one. They are simply weighed down too much by some of those teams (it is projected in the link below that nine PSU opponents will finish below the 200 line) to make any significant progress with one victory.


RUTS points us to our projected RPI:

They expect losses (based on Sagarin) to Michigan (-3.1), Purdue (-11.6), Illinois (-9.2 and -1.9), Ohio State (-6.2) and Iowa (-2.0). They also project Minnesota to be a very close win.


There are other projections, of course, most notably Pomeroy. He has Penn State in the #57 spot based on past performance, but projects similar results: a 3-6 finish.

If these things pan out, Penn State would finish the regular season 20-11, with perhaps an RPI in the 70's. This means, of course, that a big time performance in the Big Ten Tournament is a must. It is probably too far off to predict seedings and matchups, there are quite a few teams bunched in the top half of the standings right now, but for the record: the computers still think Battle & Co. have something to prove. I'm sure they would like hearing that, though.

In our continuing commitment to Penn State Baseball, we bring you more good news on the professional front.

The Frontier League East Division leading Traverse City Beach Bums have announced the signing of catcher Joe Blackburn, a Rookie-1 out of Penn State University.

Blackburn was one of the best hitters in the Big Ten this yea with a batting line of .342/.429/.497. He showed decent patience at the plate with a BB/SO ratio just under one and displays good speed for a catcher, stealing 10 bases in 11 attempts. The best part of this story, however, is the ridiculous logo of the Traverse City Beach Bums:

According to Wiki

The team features a pair of Michigan black bear mascots wearing beach sandals, named Suntan and Sunburn. The team colors are navy blue and yellow, a homage to the colors of the University of Michigan.

Things that are awesome: Playing for a team that is represented by black bears wearing flip-flops.
Things that suck: Putting away your Penn State hat and having to wear Michigan colors.

The Beach Bums are an independent team, meaning (obviously) that they are not affiliated with any Major League club. Rather than being sent players from the big heads at the top of the MLB organizations, independents manage their rosters at a more local level. They are scouted almost like a college team, with several big league clubs keeping an eye out for poachable players. When a MLB team likes what they see, the contract is bought out and the once independent league player enters a proper farm system.

"Joe comes highly recommended out of Penn State and we are excited to have him," said Jason Wuerfel, the Beach Bums' Director of Baseball Operations.

Congratulations to Joe and good luck.