[Programming note:  Penn State's basketball team tries to extract themselves from the quicksand today at 12:30 p.m. against Tulane (0-2).  No front-page open thread for this one, so it'll be up to someone to put up a Fanpost. And here it is. - RUTS]

This must have been during a MSU-Notre Dame game. LOLtato.

BSD Mike: Oh, how I look forward to this game. It seems like every year Sparty comes into the season finale licking their wounds and hoping to squeak out an invitation to the Alamo Bowl. And every year it's such a pleasure to slap them back to reality. Last year was particularly fun because Sparty woke up that morning thinking they actually had a chance at the Rose Bowl. How cute. Then Daryll Clark torched them silly, and Dantonio went all pissy pants in the final seconds as we celebrated. Here's an idea, Mark. If you don't like our boys celebrating, try beating them. Of course, let's not forget Dantonio had no problems enjoying a Gatorade bath in 2007 while JoePa waited to shake his hand at midfield. What goes around comes around, dude.
 
This year I expect more of the same. Sparty hasn't beaten anyone with a pulse this year. Their passing defense is terrible. The rest of the team is nothing special. Though they'll be playing with that motivation of hoping to get a third tier bowl game, our boys will be playing for a possible invite to a BCS bowl. Just slightly higher stakes. Give the edge to the good guys, and Sparty can take a bus to the Motor City Bowl in Detroit.
 
Penn State 35, Michigan State 17

Kevin HD:  I’m usually pretty good at blinding myself in games like these, but I’ve got to be honest: the more I look at this one the less enthused I am.
 
Yesterday’s Q&A’s had one theme for me: special teams.  It’s not that we aren’t making any big plays in the kick game – we aren’t -- it’s that we’re bad, bad, bad on a level I didn’t quite realize.  I mean, 100+ in most categories with the athletes we have?
 
The bottom line, though: Penn State is the more talented team, but Paterno/Hall need to commit to protecting the quarterback at all costs.  When things break down Clark isn’t going to persevere anyway, but if you give him a chance with calculated risk he performs every time.  Prediction: pain and Paternoball.
 
I think a blowout here and a struggle in the Iowa-Minnesota game gets us into the BCS, but I can’t predict that in good faith.  Sure, the Iowa game might be ugly, but I suspect ours will be as well. 
 
Penn State 20, Michigan State 17

Run Up The Score:  Be prepared for a shootout, as both teams should have great success(!) passing the ball.  Each team should excel in the passing game for different reasons, however -- Penn State, because MSU's secondary is garbage, and MSU because they protect the quarterback well and our defensive ends are having a below average year applying pressure.  And quite frankly, Michigan State has more quality receivers than we can cover, especially with A.J. Wallace likely out of the lineup. 

It's the special teams blunders that continue to terrorize the Nittany Lions -- really, the only disasters we're missing are a blocked field goal, giving up a kickoff return for a touchdown, and the dreaded "krumble" (kickoff return fumble).  Michigan State has a clear edge in nearly every facet of the kicking game.  Further, Sparty should be the looser team, having locked up some random, low-level bowl game while Penn State has to deal with the pressure of grabbing an at-large BCS bid in a hostile environment. 

The common denominator in Penn State's three (three!  It's the 12th game!) previous road games at Illinois, Michigan, and Northwestern.  Slow, slow starts.  Expect another one tomorrow.  Sparty struggled mightily with Purdue last week.  They had 16 less first downs, 20 less minutes of possession, and gave up 524 yards to the Boilermakers...but still won due to special teams play.  Sparty also lost to Central Michigan, Minnesota and Notre Dame.  They needed overtime to beat Michigan.  And yet they're only a three-point underdog at home.  (Wouldn't touch this game with stolen money, by the way.)

I tend to get tagged as the negative editor around here, but I don't think I've picked against PSU all year.  Bad feeling about this one, though.  Michigan State starts fast, Penn State makes a run in the middle quarters, and another epic fail on special teams dooms the Lions in the end.

Michigan State 34, Penn State 31.

More photos » by Amy Sancetta - AP

7 months ago: Peanut the dog, dressed in a Michigan State Spartan costume, is seen outside Ford Field before the semifinal game between Michigan State and Connecticut during the men's NCAA Final Four college basketball tournament Saturday, April 4, 2009, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Amy Sancetta)

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Part one of an exchange between myself and LVS of SBNation's fine Michigan State blog, "The Only Colors".  His questions, my answers.  The other half of Malicious Internet Interrogation will likely be up later today or tomorrow.  And don't forget this afternoon's basketball game against UNC-Wilmington.  Tip-off is at 4:00 p.m., game to be broadcast on ESPNU (and presumably, ESPN360 yeah, apparently not).  We'll have an open thread.

1.  MSU-PSU: great rivalry or greatest rivalry?
 
Greatest, of course!  How else could you explain two teams fighting over a pre-school arts and crafts monstrosity like the Land Grant Trophy?

2.  Penn State allowed almost 300 yards passing against Indiana last Saturday; that statistic alone gives MSU fans at least some hope, as our offense is essentially pass-or-bust this year.  How has PSU's pass defense been this season?  Are there any clear vulnerabilities in the secondary?
 
Keep in mind that Indiana threw the ball 51 times and was playing from behind in the second half last week, but yes, the larger point is that teams know it's better to throw on Penn State than attempt to run.  I would not be remotely surprised if MSU attempts close to 50 passes on Saturday, although I doubt they'll reach the 61 passes thrown by Brian Hoyer against PSU back in 2006 -- and that was in a 17-13 game.  Penn State can be thrown on, but they do their best to protect any obvious liabilities in the secondary.  Free Safety Nick Sukay has steadily improved throughout the year.  Drew Astorino (#28) plays the other safety position, and it's no secret that he's trying to fight through a shoulder injury.  CB A.J. Wallace sustained a concussion last week, he's listed as "possible" for Sparty.  So there may be opportunities for you in the passing game. 

[For the rest of our Q&A, including discussion of SPECIAL TEAMS FAIL and much more, please head over to The Only Colors.]

Mark Dantonio, looking at the scoreboard to make sure he has no timeouts remaining. (AP Photo)

Nothing hurts more than the truth, and nothing says truth like charts.

Something I was interested in: just how true is the Spartan Slide? Sure they've blown monster leads against mediocre teams and lost to MAC schools, but that's early season stuff. How did John L. Smith earn such a fantastic reputation for late season collapse?

Winning percentage by month at Michigan State:

Isn't that awesome? Obligatory:

Continue reading this post »

Mike Says...

I must admit I was more concerned with getting my basketball previews together than I was with researching and previewing Indiana. But I have watched a few Hoosier games this year, and though there's temptation to write this game off, there is plenty to worry about.

Indiana's wide receivers Tandon Doss and Demarlo Belcher scare the crap out of me. They were absolute freaks against Iowa, and both guys rank in the top ten in the conference in receiving yards. They're tall, and I can already see them giving our corners and safeties a tough time.

I've also noticed the Hoosiers are a team that starts fast and jumps out to a quick lead. By contrast, Penn State is a team that starts slow and takes a quarter or two to really get going. So there's potential here for this one to look pretty scary in the early going.

But thankfully, they're Indiana, and eventually their Hoosierness catches up to them. This is a team that blew a late fourth quarter lead against Michigan. They blew a 25 point lead against Northwestern. And of course we're all familiar with how a 14 point lead against Iowa turned into an 18 point loss for them.

It's been a long time since we've seen Penn State have to fight back in a furious comeback effort. I'm going to say this is that week. Look for Indiana to strike quick and jump out to a 10 or 14 point lead as the Penn State offense bumbles and stumbles all over itself. About midway through the second quarter I'll predict Indiana gets a favorable call from the officials, and for a moment it will look like the entire season is lost. Say goodbye to the casual Penn State fan as they get up and start to leave the stadium. But the bad call will spark the Nittany Lions to life. The seniors will realize they don't want to go out like this. The defense will get angry. Daryll Clark and the offense will get focused. And we'll see a furious Penn State comeback in the second half to overcome a double digit deficit. I'll make a crazy prediction and say we'll be watching this game on the Big Ten Network as one of their Big Ten's Greatest Games series ten years from now.

Penn State 27, Indiana 24

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More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

22 days ago: In this Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009, photo, Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark passes the ball during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Minnesota in State College, Pa. Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark has what seems to be an embarassment of playmaking options in a passing game that has the No. 12 Nittany Lions rolling into Northwestern this weekend on a four-game roll. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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Before the season we all circled this game as the one that would make or break the season. Sure, many of us figured we would be 9-0 and competing for a national championship, but those dreams went out the window that soggy night in September. A chance at back-to-back Big Ten championships likely fluttered away as well, but that doesn't mean there's nothing to play for today.

There's a chance at a BCS at-large bid at stake, but there's more than that. This is the game that will define this team. All season long this team has been fighting the label of the soft schedule. After losing to Iowa, Penn State dropped out of the top ten. Though other teams in the top ten have lost, Penn State has not moved up because voters don't want to believe. Penn State has even been passed by teams like Oregon while they hang around just outside the top ten. A win today may or may not correct that. Many voters will surely say all Penn State did was beat a three-loss Ohio State team that lost to Purdue and give them no respect anyway. But if Penn State loses, there will be no shortage of critics who say the 2009 Nittany Lions were fools gold from the beginning. The legacy of this team is at stake.

And beyond that, there is the legacy of Daryll Clark. Though he's been tremendous in his two years as a starter, there are those who doubt his conviction. There are those who doubt he is capable of winning "the big game". Remember last year how we said each week was the new "biggest test" for Penn State. Going into Madison was supposed to be Penn State's biggest test. Then beating Michigan was supposed to be Penn State's biggest test. Then winning in Columbus was supposed to be their biggest test. And week after week Penn State passed the test with Daryll Clark at the helm, but each week the detractors conveniently forgot to give Clark and Penn State credit for passing the test.

Though Ohio State fans refuse to admit it, they are our rival. I've seen a level of vitrol from the Ohio State fanbase unlike any I've seen from them all year. If they consider us nothing more than the equivalent of playing Wisconsin, you could have fooled me. They insult our coach. They insult our fans. They insult our defense. And they insult our quarterback. They hate us, and it shows. Though they refuse to acknowledge it, this is a rivalry game. Both teams hate each other, and the stakes are high.

Of all the games on the schedule, this is the game I want the most. Regardless of what happens in the BCS picture, beating Michigan and Ohio State in back-to-back years is a success in my book. I think this team can get it done.

Go get 'em, boys. Take no prisoners.

Go State. Beat the Buckeyes.

More photos » by Carolyn Kaster - AP

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Alas, all hate things must come to an end.  Here's how we see tomorrow's game shaking out.

BSD Mike:

Honestly, I can see this game going either way. Both defenses should dominate, and the score should be low. Really low. A big special teams play, or a key turnover could swing the balance.

But having said that, I like Penn State's chances in this game. I've watched a lot of Ohio State football this year, and I just don't see any cohesion on offense. Do they run the spread or a pro-style offense? Is Terrelle Pryor a pocket passer or a spread option quarterback? I can't tell. But I can tell you he's far from being a polished quarterback. And the players around him at running back and offensive line don't exactly make his life any easier. But his receivers are capable of bailing him out when he punts on third down.

When Penn State gets the ball, I'm expecting a lot of frustration. They're not going to move the ball easily, but they won't get dominated. They'll win some battles, but the Ohio State defense will win their share as well.

Both teams are going to struggle offensively. Barring a bunch of turnovers, this game is going to come down to which team can put together one or two good drives and come away with points. Though Penn State will go through a lot of frustration, I think their offense is better suited to put together one or two drives, and I think that will be the difference.

Prediction: Penn State 17, Ohio State 10

Kevin HD:

Why isn’t this game going to play out exactly like last year’s?

Continue reading this post »

Penn State	Value (Nat'l Rank)	Value (Nat'l Rank)	Ohio State Buckeyes	Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg)	182.0 (33)	86.4 (6)	Rushing Defense (ypg)
Passing Offense (ypg)	247.1 (34)	173.6 (14)	Passing Defense (ypg)	Push
Pass Efficiency	146.6 (20)	96.7 (8)	Pass Efficiency Defense	Push
Total Offense (ypg)	429.1 (24)	260.0 (6)	Total Defense (ypg)	Push
Scoring Offense (ppg)	30.7 (33)	11.7 (6)	Scoring Defense (ppg)
Rushing Defense (ypg)	84.1 (5)	186.6 (26)	Rushing Offense (ypg)	Push
Passing Defense (ypg)	170.7 (12)	189.6 (94)	Passing Offense (ypg)
Pass Efficiency Defense	95.7 (6)	128.5 (60)	Pass Efficiency
Total Defense (ypg)	254.8 (5)	376.1 (63)	Total Offense (ypg)
Scoring Defense (ppg)	9.3 (1)	31.0 (29)	Scoring Offense (ppg)
Net Punting Yds	32.0 (114)	6.1 (93)	Punt Return Yds	Push
Punt Return Yds	5.4 (101)	37.2 (35)	Net Punting Yds
Kickoff Return Yds	18.1 (110)	18,8 (13)	Kickoff Return Defense
Kickoff Return Defense	22.0 (77)	24.8 (19)	Kickoff Return Yds
Turnover Margin	0.56 (34)	0.89 (14)	Turnover Margin	Push
Penalty Yds/Game	36.4 (4)	38.4 (6)	Penalty Yds/Game	Push
Sacks	3.56 (4)	1.67 (50)	Sacks Allowed
Sacks Allowed	1.11 (17)	2.78 (20)	Sacks	Push
Redzone Offense (%)	0.86 (30)	0.80 (51)	Redzone Defense (%)	Push
Redzone Defense (%)	0.57 (1)	0.73 (103)	Redzone Offense (%)
Redzone TD %	0.62	0.51	Redzone TD % Defense
Redzone TD % Defense	0.29	0.60	Redzone TD %
3rd Down Conv. %	51.6 (6)	32.3 (15)	3rd Down Defense %	Push
3rd Down Defense %	30.3 (10)	41.9 (47)	3rd Down Conv. %

Legend

Difference <25 in National Rank = Push

Difference >25 in National Rank =

Difference >50 in National Rank =

Difference >75 in National Rank =

Differences >100 in National Rank =

Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgement.

More analysis after the jump.

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More photos » by Terry Gilliam - AP

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Your staff preview of this season's "let's get overly concerned" sandwich game...

Mike Says...

Evanston has been a place where Penn State can never seem to get an easy win. They have a 4-2 all time record there, but three of those wins have come by less than five points. Even the 2005 team needed a miracle pass from Michael Robinson to Isaac Smolko on 4th and 15 to pull out the win. So it's tempting to say this is going to be a difficult win for Penn State. But I'm just not seeing it.

The game in 2005 came a week before Penn State put it all together against Minnesota. This Penn State team has already played itself into a weapon of mass destruction. Northwestern has nothing that scares me on offense. And the defense is starting the waterboy and two managers in the secondary. This is not Northwestern circa 1995. Bring on the Buckeyes.

Penn State 35, Northwestern 17

Kevin Says...

They asked Pat Fitzgerald what he thought of the 2009 Penn State football team and his basic response was, "Man those guys are good." He's mostly right. The offense is first in the league in total yards, second in total points, and seems to have finally picked up an identity.

And I expect nothing less than proverbial bloodshed while Northwestern has the ball. Lee practiced all week and should be available to help defend against the short passing game Kafka brings. You've got what might be the very best defense in the country (1st nationally in points allowed, 4th in total yards) against a Northwestern team that ranks 60 to 100+ in most major offensive categories.

I expect 2005-Illinoisish chaos. In a good way.

Penn State 52, Northwestern 7

Ruts Says...

No reason to worry here. Northwestern's severely hampered by injuries in the secondary, so Penn State should be able to move the ball at will. Oh, and Northwestern can't run the ball. If this is any less than a mauling, I'll be disappointed.

Penn State 44, Northwestern 14