Game Previews
So Much On The Line
by BSD on Nov 7, 2009 10:12 AM EST
in Game Previews
40 comments
Before the season we all circled this game as the one that would make or break the season. Sure, many of us figured we would be 9-0 and competing for a national championship, but those dreams went out the window that soggy night in September. A chance at back-to-back Big Ten championships likely fluttered away as well, but that doesn't mean there's nothing to play for today.
There's a chance at a BCS at-large bid at stake, but there's more than that. This is the game that will define this team. All season long this team has been fighting the label of the soft schedule. After losing to Iowa, Penn State dropped out of the top ten. Though other teams in the top ten have lost, Penn State has not moved up because voters don't want to believe. Penn State has even been passed by teams like Oregon while they hang around just outside the top ten. A win today may or may not correct that. Many voters will surely say all Penn State did was beat a three-loss Ohio State team that lost to Purdue and give them no respect anyway. But if Penn State loses, there will be no shortage of critics who say the 2009 Nittany Lions were fools gold from the beginning. The legacy of this team is at stake.
And beyond that, there is the legacy of Daryll Clark. Though he's been tremendous in his two years as a starter, there are those who doubt his conviction. There are those who doubt he is capable of winning "the big game". Remember last year how we said each week was the new "biggest test" for Penn State. Going into Madison was supposed to be Penn State's biggest test. Then beating Michigan was supposed to be Penn State's biggest test. Then winning in Columbus was supposed to be their biggest test. And week after week Penn State passed the test with Daryll Clark at the helm, but each week the detractors conveniently forgot to give Clark and Penn State credit for passing the test.
Though Ohio State fans refuse to admit it, they are our rival. I've seen a level of vitrol from the Ohio State fanbase unlike any I've seen from them all year. If they consider us nothing more than the equivalent of playing Wisconsin, you could have fooled me. They insult our coach. They insult our fans. They insult our defense. And they insult our quarterback. They hate us, and it shows. Though they refuse to acknowledge it, this is a rivalry game. Both teams hate each other, and the stakes are high.
Of all the games on the schedule, this is the game I want the most. Regardless of what happens in the BCS picture, beating Michigan and Ohio State in back-to-back years is a success in my book. I think this team can get it done.
Go get 'em, boys. Take no prisoners.
Go State. Beat the Buckeyes.
40 comments | 0 recs |
BSD Staff Predictions: Ohio State
by Run Up The Score on Nov 6, 2009 9:58 AM EST
in Game Previews
149 comments
Alas, all hate things must come to an end. Here's how we see tomorrow's game shaking out.
BSD Mike:
Honestly, I can see this game going either way. Both defenses should dominate, and the score should be low. Really low. A big special teams play, or a key turnover could swing the balance.
But having said that, I like Penn State's chances in this game. I've watched a lot of Ohio State football this year, and I just don't see any cohesion on offense. Do they run the spread or a pro-style offense? Is Terrelle Pryor a pocket passer or a spread option quarterback? I can't tell. But I can tell you he's far from being a polished quarterback. And the players around him at running back and offensive line don't exactly make his life any easier. But his receivers are capable of bailing him out when he punts on third down.
When Penn State gets the ball, I'm expecting a lot of frustration. They're not going to move the ball easily, but they won't get dominated. They'll win some battles, but the Ohio State defense will win their share as well.
Both teams are going to struggle offensively. Barring a bunch of turnovers, this game is going to come down to which team can put together one or two good drives and come away with points. Though Penn State will go through a lot of frustration, I think their offense is better suited to put together one or two drives, and I think that will be the difference.
Prediction: Penn State 17, Ohio State 10
Kevin HD:
Why isn’t this game going to play out exactly like last year’s?
149 comments | 0 recs |
Ohio State Preview By The Numbers
by BSD on Nov 4, 2009 8:00 AM EST
in Game Previews
114 comments
|
Penn State |
Value (Nat'l Rank) |
Value (Nat'l Rank) |
Ohio State Buckeyes |
Advantage |
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 182.0 (33) | 86.4 (6) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |  |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 247.1 (34) | 173.6 (14) | Passing Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Pass Efficiency | 146.6 (20) | 96.7 (8) | Pass Efficiency Defense | Push |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 429.1 (24) | 260.0 (6) | Total Defense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 30.7 (33) | 11.7 (6) | Scoring Defense (ppg) |  |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 84.1 (5) | 186.6 (26) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 170.7 (12) | 189.6 (94) | Passing Offense (ypg) |  |
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 95.7 (6) | 128.5 (60) | Pass Efficiency | |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 254.8 (5) | 376.1 (63) | Total Offense (ypg) | |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 9.3 (1) | 31.0 (29) | Scoring Offense (ppg) | |
| Net Punting Yds | 32.0 (114) | 6.1 (93) | Punt Return Yds | Push |
| Punt Return Yds | 5.4 (101) | 37.2 (35) | Net Punting Yds | |
| Kickoff Return Yds | 18.1 (110) | 18,8 (13) | Kickoff Return Defense | |
| Kickoff Return Defense | 22.0 (77) | 24.8 (19) | Kickoff Return Yds | |
| Turnover Margin | 0.56 (34) | 0.89 (14) | Turnover Margin | Push |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 36.4 (4) | 38.4 (6) | Penalty Yds/Game | Push |
| Sacks | 3.56 (4) | 1.67 (50) | Sacks Allowed | |
| Sacks Allowed | 1.11 (17) | 2.78 (20) | Sacks | Push |
| Redzone Offense (%) | 0.86 (30) | 0.80 (51) | Redzone Defense (%) | Push |
| Redzone Defense (%) | 0.57 (1) | 0.73 (103) | Redzone Offense (%) | |
| Redzone TD % | 0.62 | 0.51 | Redzone TD % Defense | |
| Redzone TD % Defense | 0.29 | 0.60 | Redzone TD % | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % | 51.6 (6) | 32.3 (15) | 3rd Down Defense % | Push |
| 3rd Down Defense % | 30.3 (10) | 41.9 (47) | 3rd Down Conv. % | |
Legend
Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Differences >100 in National Rank =
Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgement.
More analysis after the jump.
114 comments | 0 recs |
BSD Staff Predictions: Northwestern Wildcats
by Kevin HD on Oct 30, 2009 11:11 AM EDT
in Game Previews
53 comments
Your staff preview of this season's "let's get overly concerned" sandwich game...
Mike Says...
Evanston has been a place where Penn State can never seem to get an easy win. They have a 4-2 all time record there, but three of those wins have come by less than five points. Even the 2005 team needed a miracle pass from Michael Robinson to Isaac Smolko on 4th and 15 to pull out the win. So it's tempting to say this is going to be a difficult win for Penn State. But I'm just not seeing it.
The game in 2005 came a week before Penn State put it all together against Minnesota. This Penn State team has already played itself into a weapon of mass destruction. Northwestern has nothing that scares me on offense. And the defense is starting the waterboy and two managers in the secondary. This is not Northwestern circa 1995. Bring on the Buckeyes.
Penn State 35, Northwestern 17
Kevin Says...
They asked Pat Fitzgerald what he thought of the 2009 Penn State football team and his basic response was, "Man those guys are good." He's mostly right. The offense is first in the league in total yards, second in total points, and seems to have finally picked up an identity.
And I expect nothing less than proverbial bloodshed while Northwestern has the ball. Lee practiced all week and should be available to help defend against the short passing game Kafka brings. You've got what might be the very best defense in the country (1st nationally in points allowed, 4th in total yards) against a Northwestern team that ranks 60 to 100+ in most major offensive categories.
I expect 2005-Illinoisish chaos. In a good way.
Penn State 52, Northwestern 7
Ruts Says...
No reason to worry here. Northwestern's severely hampered by injuries in the secondary, so Penn State should be able to move the ball at will. Oh, and Northwestern can't run the ball. If this is any less than a mauling, I'll be disappointed.
Penn State 44, Northwestern 14
53 comments | 0 recs |
Northwestern Preview By The Numbers
by BSD on Oct 28, 2009 9:09 AM EDT
in Game Previews
22 comments
Legend
Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Differences >100 in National Rank =
Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgement.
More analysis after the jump.
22 comments | 0 recs |
BSD Staff Predictions: Michigan Wolverines
by BSD on Oct 23, 2009 9:17 AM EDT
in Game Previews
129 comments
It's Michigan week. It's your BSD staff predictions. You know the drill.
RUTS Says...
Brain says Penn State, heart says Michigan. Looking at the Wolverines, their defense seems poorly equipped to handle Penn State's attack. You know, other than the fact that Brandon Graham is lining up against our 3rd team offensive right tackle. There's that. Still, their linebackers are prone to jumping on play-action fakes and the secondary isn't great. If Penn State can move the ball on the ground with any sort of competence, Clark could conceivably turn that into a big day (in fact, both teams have significant issues at both safety positions). It'll be up to the interior group of Eliades, Wisniewski, and Troutman to open up holes. Eliades looked downright menacing pulling around the line and leading Royster against Minnesota.
Defensively for Penn State, there's bad news. Tate Forcier may be a mistake-prone freshman, but he's still not Nick Sheridan. He played poorly against Iowa and became rather skittish under pressure. If Penn State can get to him, he'll turn it over. Odrick and Ogbu will be their usual disruptive selves, but what will PSU get from the edge? Denard Robinson is a concern, naturally, but Penn State tends to be rather disciplined on defense. Dynamic and surprising? No, but disciplined.
But it's Michigan, and Michigan Means Puckering from the coaching staff. Even when Penn State has a clearly superior team, like last year, it's a horrific struggle. This is not a clearly superior Penn State team, but it's good enough to be a 4 1/2 point favorite on the road. They're a bad matchup for Michigan, save the obvious Graham v. Poti battle. Insert kicking game caveat (I'll be shocked if Michigan doesn't score or set up an easy touchdown on a kick return) and crackpot officiating conspiracy theory here (however, if I see Dave Witvoet's face, all bets really are off and I'll spend Saturday afternoon in the fetal position if Penn State leads by any less than 20 points).
Like it or not, this game goes down to the wire. I will not be remotely surprised if Penn State loses.
Prediction: Penn State 21, Michigan 20
129 comments | 0 recs |
Michigan Preview By The Numbers
by BSD on Oct 21, 2009 11:00 AM EDT
in Game Previews
93 comments
Legend
Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Differences >100 in National Rank =
Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgement.
More analysis after the jump.
93 comments | 0 recs |
Fear This: Tate Forcier
by Kevin HD on Oct 20, 2009 3:00 PM EDT
in Game Previews
93 comments
Born, silver Heisman in hand. Tate Forcier isn't a big dude. But don't take my word for it, his website qbforce.com has your details:
Tate Forcier was the smallest and the slowest athlete of the three Forcier brothers but always had a bit stronger of an arm and always looking down field to pass first then run.
And he's historic:
He enrolled at Scripps Ranch High School, San Diego, California. The rest is history.
Which is a nice trait. He got his nickname, Tate, from a movie about a 7-year-old child prodigy directed by Jodie Foster (I know it's true because I read it on Wiki):
He spent most of his teenage years visiting his football-playing brothers at college, transferring between high schools, and throwing touchdowns.
Forcier was more or less the perfect fit for a Michigan team in desperate need of some immediate modest success. Michigan lost Newsome, a raw talent with great speed and unpolished skills, for a California blue-blood who was raised by nanny/ex-NFL QB coaches from the age of 4 (or so the historic tales tell).
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