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Notre Dame Is In The Computer

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Only becuase it's the first Google image result for "subway domers basketball"


A look at Penn State, Notre Dame, and the MSG in ones and zeros.


School KenPom Rank KenPom Score Predicted W 
Notre Dame 34 .8865 66%
Penn State 68 .8014 34%


We talked earlier about Penn State's DeChellis Factor, a direct result of winning close game and losing in blowout fashion. Having a high DeChellis Factor means you get penalized in these rankings, it's based on a large batch of historical trends and so I'll deal with that, but I'm not sure it makes Penn State less dangerous.

Oh, you also get penalized for having an OOC SOS rank of 282, which includes very last place NJIT. Notre Dame sports an OOC SOS of 125, nothing to brag about but then I'm sure they have a whole SECish sob story about how tough the Big East is.

On to Sagarin...

School Sagarin Rank Sagarin PREDICTOR Expected Spread
Notre Dame 34 84.42 -3.8
Penn State 47 80.62 +3.8


There is no line out yet and probably won't be one for a couple of days, but anytime you are dealing with Notre Dame things get screwy. Books know they are getting action on ND no matter what the line, there are just too many blinded Irish fans out there, and now that all the Subway Domers realize their team is still playing...lookout. This means that if the line is released at 5 it would probably be drop to four if ND came out wearing, say, New Mexico State jerseys.

Similar opponents...

Opponent ND Result PSU Result
Indiana (N) W +38 (A) W +10, (H) W +3
Ohio State (N) L -5 (A) L -14


So it's only five games, and Indiana seemed to play much stronger at the end of the season then they did during pre-conference play when ND faced them. I don't really know what I'm trying to point out here, draw your own conclusions I guess.   

None of the charts are incredibly encouraging, although the same thing would have been said if I did this for Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois or the most recent Florida game.  If there is one thing I've learned about this particular team it's that computer models don't do a very good job understanding them, I guess in this case that is a good thing.